Stallions Posted September 25, 2019 Posted September 25, 2019 The smart men that know the NFL inside & out are making the Patriots 7 point favorites Sunday at New Era Field. It’s actually a smart bet! They are basing this on a game as follows: -Bills control time of possession 32-28 mins -Brady throws for 238 yards -Allen throws for 170 yards on 16 completions -Bills rush for 142 yards -PATS rush for 105 yards -Each team punts 4 times SCORE: 24-16 HOW DO WE BEAT THAT SCENARIO ?
1ManRaid Posted September 25, 2019 Posted September 25, 2019 (edited) By scoring more points than them. Edited September 25, 2019 by 1ManRaid 1 1
mramefa Posted September 25, 2019 Posted September 25, 2019 Vegas doesn't base the points spread on a single detailed hypothetical scenario... 7 1
Billsatlastin2018 Posted September 25, 2019 Posted September 25, 2019 Uhhhhh... THIS... The Patriots enter this week with a streak of five straight victories against Buffalo, including series sweeps in 2017 and 2018. the 14th series sweep since Bill Belichick became head coach in 2000. New England holds a 74-43-1 edge in the series and have won 33 of the last 38 games between the clubs, dating back to 2000. AND THIS... BRADY VS. BUFFALO Tom Brady has led the Patriots to 30 regular-season victories over the Bills, his highest victory total over any opponent. Additionally, Brady has thrown more touchdown passes (69) against Buffalo than any other opponent. Brady also has more 300-yard games (11) against Buffalo than any other NFL team.
RocCityRoller Posted September 25, 2019 Posted September 25, 2019 historically, a home team gets +3 points for home field advantage a -7 at home means the smart people who set lines feel that New England is 10 points better than Buffalo on a neutral field. Only 10 points off of the defending SB champion, who has not allowed an offensive TD this year is actually a spread giving Buffalo credit and looking to sucker in Bills fans. The smart money is on New England. The spread started at -6 or -6.5 depending on the book.The fact it is now 7 to 7.5 means more money is backing New England, as it should. I think the Bills have a chance for the upset. Vegas wants people like me to bet. Therefore this week I sit on my money. Many Bills fans have. 2
Boatdrinks Posted September 25, 2019 Posted September 25, 2019 They are basing it on the last 18 years. Before Brady , the season series between the clubs stood at 41-38-1 in favor of New England. Pretty even. Since ? Not even close as it’s 74-43-1 and counting. The Bills are at home, but they’re playing the Patriots. Hence the spread. 1
Stallions Posted September 25, 2019 Author Posted September 25, 2019 51 minutes ago, nrenegar said: Vegas doesn't base the points spread on a single detailed hypothetical scenario... This comes from Vegas! Do you think they throw out a point spread Monday AM just based on home/away records or historical trends? They build a program for all the games, get a spread and then stick to it. If the weather at New Era gets ugly or Edelman can't play that may throw a point or two!
Just Joshin' Posted September 25, 2019 Posted September 25, 2019 7 minutes ago, Stallions said: This comes from Vegas! Do you think they throw out a point spread Monday AM just based on home/away records or historical trends? They build a program for all the games, get a spread and then stick to it. If the weather at New Era gets ugly or Edelman can't play that may throw a point or two! The goal of the book is to get people to bet evenly on both sides - this way they will make money. The perception is across the country is that NE is the best team in the league so they point spread must be high enough to get bets on the Bills. 4 1
mramefa Posted September 25, 2019 Posted September 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, Stallions said: This comes from Vegas! Do you think they throw out a point spread Monday AM just based on home/away records or historical trends? They build a program for all the games, get a spread and then stick to it. If the weather at New Era gets ugly or Edelman can't play that may throw a point or two! A couple quick corrections not that relevant to my main point: Vegas does ensemble models (not a model) to create ranges of probabilistic predictions, and taking into account how people usually bet they aim for an arbitrage position. They also don't stick to the point spread, and do Bayesian updating based on the bets they receive. Layman's overview of the salient point: the points spread Vegas sets is based on where they think they can make money, given the actions of irrational betters. Just because Vegas has a -7 spread on the Bills doesn't necessarily mean that Vegas thinks the Pats have a >50% chance of winning by at least 7. Rather it means that Vegas thinks it will get action on a -7 point spread where they make a profit no matter what. 1
Chandler#81 Posted September 25, 2019 Posted September 25, 2019 OP, do you honestly think the Bills should be favored? We’re playing the 2 time Defending Super Bowl Champs who haven’t had a TD scored on their Defense yet, through 3 games. If you were Vegas, you wouldn’t consider this a close game? Hell, I’m thinking of playing Bills +7 and that’s just what they’re hoping for. 2 1
ProcessTruster Posted September 25, 2019 Posted September 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said: OP, do you honestly think the Bills should be favored? We’re playing the 2 time Defending Super Bowl Champs who haven’t had a TD scored on their Defense yet, through 3 games. If you were Vegas, you wouldn’t consider this a close game? Hell, I’m thinking of playing Bills +7 and that’s just what they’re hoping for. i'd take a 7 point loss at this point in the process. shows that we can hang with the best team in the league. this is not the season. weird sh-t can happen and they could pull out an unlikely win, but I doubt it. you need to have a heck of an offense to get through the Pats this year. Only 3 or 4 teams can do that. bills are not one of them. 1
Big Turk Posted September 25, 2019 Posted September 25, 2019 6 hours ago, RocCityRoller said: historically, a home team gets +3 points for home field advantage a -7 at home means the smart people who set lines feel that New England is 10 points better than Buffalo on a neutral field. Only 10 points off of the defending SB champion, who has not allowed an offensive TD this year is actually a spread giving Buffalo credit and looking to sucker in Bills fans. The smart money is on New England. The spread started at -6 or -6.5 depending on the book.The fact it is now 7 to 7.5 means more money is backing New England, as it should. I think the Bills have a chance for the upset. Vegas wants people like me to bet. Therefore this week I sit on my money. Many Bills fans have. The Bills have a chance for an upset but that would mean the Bills need to play near perfect and catch New England when they are not playing their best. Until proven otherwise, New England is the class of the NFL, and routinely beats pretty much everyone, not just Buffalo. 1
PlayoffsPlease Posted September 25, 2019 Posted September 25, 2019 Bookmakers at the large shops have their own version of power rankings that assign a numerical value to each team based on expected performance against an average team. Home field advantage is actually not an automatic 3 points, but is based on teams actual histories. But it is typically between 2.5 and 3. So 3 is a perfectly fine short hand. The use this to set INITIAL betting lines. The actually lines move depending on actual bets placed, to try to keep the action even on both sides. Currently bookmakers rate the Patriots in the neighborhood of -10. They rank the Bills in the neighborhood of -1. With the home field advantage of 3, the initial line should be -11 - -1 +3 = 6. Other factors such as know bettor bias (big market teams and teams like the Pats draw more bets to their side) are built into their algorithms as well. 2
BillsFanSD Posted September 25, 2019 Posted September 25, 2019 7-point dogs win about 25% of the time. Honestly, I'm not sure that the Bills actually win this game one time out of four, but it's not that far off. The line seems about right to me. The Bills are way, way better than last year's team. We seem to be pretty clearly on the right trajectory with an improving QB we can build around, solid performers at each position, and lots of youth. There are all sorts of reason to be optimistic about the 2019 season and the years beyond. That doesn't imply that we are in the same tier as New England (or Kansas City for that matter). 4
BigBuff423 Posted September 25, 2019 Posted September 25, 2019 I wish the optimist in me could see the Bills getting a win this weekend, but I don't think that happens. As for all the media pundits expressing their confidence in the Pats' win, there's just no way to justify that they shouldn't. Until the Bills can win consistently AND prove they can beat the Patriots, I don't blame a single person for doubting it. That said, if the Defense shows out, then the Bills are in this game no matter what. I think I'm MORE concerned with the Pats Defense holding the Bills Offense than I am the Bills Defense holding the Pats Offense. Brady will Brady....but I could see the Bills' D keeping the score low while giving up yards. 1
stony Posted September 25, 2019 Posted September 25, 2019 +7 was pretty respectful towards the Bills IMO. 5
1ManRaid Posted September 25, 2019 Posted September 25, 2019 Pats D is only #1 because they played the weak Steelers, tanking Dolphins, and Jets 3rd QB. They are also down their starting LT, C, FB, two TEs, 1st round WR is on IR, and top two WRs are playing hurt. Their running game has been weak, we'll be the best pass D they play, and our O is at least better than what they've played so far. I'll take the 7 points at home, thanks. 1
skibum Posted September 25, 2019 Posted September 25, 2019 (edited) Only 7? That is crazy. Edited September 25, 2019 by skibum
gjv001 Posted September 25, 2019 Posted September 25, 2019 I have it from a reliable source that the Bills will win by 10. 1 1
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