THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Just Enough

[CLTbills]

Fantastic as always, Shaw. Great writeup.

[Stroke 17]

Leave it to the Bills to screw up the entry to the stadium. The long lines and confusion by those at the gates is a mess. It never changes, especially early in the season when the gate keepers are new and overly cautious. there is no reason for getting to the gate at 12;15 and missing the flyover,  i have been to at least 10 other stadiums and none of them have the wait times the Bills do. 

 

 

[mjt328]

6 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

They seemed to understand the Bills were simply a bunch of emotionally charged over-achievers making enough plays to win games. 

 

Great post.  But I have to disagree with this part here.

I don't think the Bills are overachieving at all.  

 

To me, they have clearly been the better team all 3 games.  Their mistakes were the only thing that made the scores close.

 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

 

Great post.  But I have to disagree with this part here.

I don't think the Bills are overachieving at all.  

 

To me, they have clearly been the better team all 3 games.  Their mistakes were the only thing that made the scores close.

 

By overachieving, I meant that they are outperforming their talent.  They are good athletes but not great players.  By adopting and playing in McDermott's system, they are better than their talent would suggest. 

 

They absolutely were the better team all three weeks.  They play like the Patriots, but they aren't as good at it yet.  

 

I'm very interested in how well they will compete on Sunday.   They might lose, but i expect them  to surprise a lot of people.  

[Stallions]

6 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

Sorry but that is exactly what Pancho is, a publicity, feel good story, nothing wrong with it but that is what it is.

 

Pancho & Family should have been (be) thrilled with all the access he got, announcing draft picks, getting calls from the war room, visits on the field at TC, players visiting him at the hospital.  

 

Most organizations wouldnt have done anything "for him" but each team has fans like Pancho and there are others "Panchos" out there at other cities they never get the recognition he did.  There are  thousands of Bills fans equally deserving that dont get recognition.

 

IMO Bills organization deserves credit for the way the recognized him including yesterday. 

 

 

100% agree. 

[Figster]

17 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

By overachieving, I meant that they are outperforming their talent.  They are good athletes but not great players.  By adopting and playing in McDermott's system, they are better than their talent would suggest. 

 

They absolutely were the better team all three weeks.  They play like the Patriots, but they aren't as good at it yet.  

 

I'm very interested in how well they will compete on Sunday.   They might lose, but i expect them  to surprise a lot of people.  

Do you think players like Poyer , Hyde or Edmunds are overachieving?

 

(If you dont mind my asking Shaw)

Edited September 24, 2019 by Figster

[SCBills]

Only two slight disagreements...

 

The Offense was legit in the first half.  They should have had 17-24 points as mistakes took points off the board.  (Yeldon fumble near the goal line and Allen intentional grounding)

 

I don't think our defense is overperforming.   We have above average, but not elite, talent at every level of the defense.  That equates to what I believe we see.... A top 5 defense, but without game wreckers like Mack, Donald etc..

[Shaw66]

46 minutes ago, Figster said:

Do you think players like Poyer , Hyde or Edmunds are overachieving?

 

(If you dont mind my asking Shaw)

I think what SC Bills just said maybe overstates it, but he's more or less right.   That is, I don't think everyone on defense is above average, but a lot are.  

 

Poyer and Hyde are, in my opinion, above average safeties, but not elite.  Neither has the exceptional speed that might make him a special force.   They are, I think, exactly what McDermott wants if he can't have an elite guy.  They are solid, sure tacklers with anticipation and reaction time, and they are dedicated to the system.  They know their jobs and are really good at executing.  

 

That's what I think Hughes is, too.   I never thought he was an elite pass rusher.  He got sacks by using his ability but by abandoning his gap discipline.   What is interesting about Hughes is that he's learned that by doing his job, he gives up some sacks but he helps the team.   He's committed to the system and he's an excellent athlete.   

 

Those guys aren't over=achieving - they're good players.  But by doing their jobs so effectively, they help the defense over-achieve.  

 

People rave about White.   I think he's very good, but I don't think he's one of the top shut-down corners in the league.  And he's gotten beaten badly in the run game the last couple of weeks.  

 

I think Milano and Harry Philips are you classic over-achievers.  

 

This process is one where the level of knowledge and execution keeps improving, year after year.   Along the way, you hope to add some elite talent that blends in.  That's what Edmunds and Allen and Oliver are.  They are under-achievers right now - they're all performing BELOW the level that we expect of them.   Allen isn't a top 10 QB now, but he will be a disappointment if he doesn't get there.  Edmunds isn't a game-changing MLB, but he can be.  Oliver seems to be playing well but isn't the disruptive force we hope he will become.  

 

There's a thread up about ESPN calling the Bills the best defense in the league.   I watched the Bears last night, and they get my vote over the Bills in a heartbeat.   They seem to play with a lot discipline, but they come at you with Mack and Hicks and Fuller.   They achieve by having really good players, and some special ones, playing a disciplined system.  I think the Bills achieve nearly as much, but with less top end talent.   The top end talent will come  the Bills will add a standout year after year, but right now they're playing with good football players who come together to get a really good team result.   

 

I think the offensive line are over-achievers, except for Morse.  Dawkins isn's dominant, Ford certainly isn't, and everyone else is a journeyman from whom the Bills have been getting pretty good results.  

 

Having said all that, what I like about this team is that it's being built like the Patriots.  It's not a team that is dependent on having elite players dotting the lineup.   This team needs an elite QB, and I think they will have one in a year or two, max, and an elite defender at MLB or edge, ideally both.   Edmunds could be one of those guys.  But the rest of the positions have to be filled by team-players who are committed to doing their jobs because they know that if they all do their jobs they're going to win their share of games.  Those guys are over-achievers.   I think a result of the system that McD runs is that somehow they can plug a rookie like Dawson Knox and depend on him down after down.   Maybe Dawson will turn into an elite tight end; right now, he looks like an over-achiever.  

 

I thought it was interesting that the announcers said last night that they've dumbed down the offense for Trubisky.  McDermott hasn't done that.   They're giving Allen the whole offense, recognizing that he's going to get screwed up sometimes.  But they want him learn the whole offense, from day one.  And somehow, they've been able to do it.  Belichick does that, too.  He challenges the players to do the job that the offense or defense requires be done.   

[Reed83HOF]

On 9/23/2019 at 8:12 AM, Shaw66 said:

3.  The deep throw to Foster that was nearly intercepted was stupid.  

looks like the play design caused this, he had no way to see the safety slide over
 

 

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

looks like the play design caused this, he had no way to see the safety slide over
 

 

Wow.  This game is so complicated.  That's great preparation by the Bengals.   And I agree, unless the Bills had seen that drop before, there's no way Josh would have seen that coverage coming.  

 

Thanks for posting that. 

[Reed83HOF]

Just now, Shaw66 said:

Wow.  This game is so complicated.  That's great preparation by the Bengals.   And I agree, unless the Bills had seen that drop before, there's no way Josh would have seen that coverage coming.  

 

Thanks for posting that. 

I just finished reading your write up and going through the thread, popped over to twitter and said "oh; no sh_t!" and thought I would share

[Ralonzo]

That play didn't bother me, and to point it out as a negative on Allen ZOMG!@!@ ANOTHER ALMOST PICK is missing the point. In any event it's still the best deep ball Allen's thrown this year. One foot deeper it's 6, one foot shorter and it's a good punt.

[Shaw66]

Just now, Ralonzo said:

That play didn't bother me, and to point it out as a negative on Allen ZOMG!@!@ ANOTHER ALMOST PICK is missing the point. In any event it's still the best deep ball Allen's thrown this year. One foot deeper it's 6, one foot shorter and it's a good punt.

Well, if that had been the safety on a standard deep drop, Allen is NOT supposed to throw the ball.   They're objective is to get single coverage on that play; if they do, they take the shot.  But if it's double coverage, Allen is supposed to go someplace else, because the offense is all about making every play a positive play.   

 

THAT double coverage was incredibly well designed and disguised.  They baited Allen, and he took it.  I don't have a problem with it, because that second defender arriving on the scene was probably a total surprise to Allen and probably most QBs.   Allen's key probably was the safety who came down on Brown, Allen read it and let it fly.   

 

 

[Ralonzo]

That wasn't just the one play, there were a whole lot where Allen looked like he was supposed to have a read and rather than it being one thing or the other, it was some third thing and he had to take a beat to process it, and in the NFL when that happens bad things usually follow. The Bengals had a very good game plan in the secondary and you-know-who is sure to notice what was done.

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

That wasn't just the one play, there were a whole lot where Allen looked like he was supposed to have a read and rather than it being one thing or the other, it was some third thing and he had to take a beat to process it, and in the NFL when that happens bad things usually follow. The Bengals had a very good game plan in the secondary and you-know-who is sure to notice what was done.

That's a good point, and it's good evidence of why it takes so long to become a really outstanding QB.   The best QBs have seen it before and process it quickly when they see it again.   It's easy pickins for a guy like Belichick to throw a half dozen wrinkles out there that Allen will misread.   Three years from now, it won't be so easy.