Bills least valuable NFL franchise per Forbes

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

20 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

The Bills are the most valuable NFL franchise in Buffalo. 

 

And New York 

18 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

The most valuable NFL franchise will always be the one that is up for sale.

 

I belive the worry here is always that one can rapidly increase value by buying it from a small market and moving it to a large one. 

 

As long as Pegs doesn’t sell or care about that- non issue. 

[row_33]

1 hour ago, TroutDog said:

Yup. In the recent Athletic article, he told the guy who managed the purchase to offer what would definitively be the highest bid. They did it intentionally and their investment is now up $.5b dollars. 

 

Not bad. 

 

whoop dee doo on how they value it, it's meaningless

 

when you have to sell is all that matters, amazing how recent years were very very lean for ownership trying to sell pro sports franchises

 

 

[RochesterRob]

35 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Was not an over buy though.  All professional sports franchises sell for a lot more than what they are claimed to be "worth" by articles such as Forbes.  The reason is simple, they are a very very rare commodity as they almost never come available.  And when they do, there are many interested parties bidding.  

 

The Dodgers were in financial shambles before Magic and his investors paid a ton more than anyone expected.  The Clippers were considered the least valuable franchise in all of the major sports and still sold for $2B when they were reportedly worth well under a billion.  

 

Something is only worth what someone is willing to pay.  And if Bills were on the market today, I bet they would easily sell for north of $2B as well.  

  I don't see the Bills worth much more than the 1.9 billion dollar figure and that seems generous.  The Cowboys have Jerry World and prime time exposure to drive their value which the Bills don't currently have.  I would quibble with the value for NE.  I see their value to the league declining once Bill B and Brady move on.  Dallas benefitted from being good during the early days of football when their games would be on near dinner time for many across the US so many would watch while looking over from the dinner table.  

[Purplebulldog]

So TP is getting an 18% cash on cash return based on original purchase price and the $250M TV contract alone. Plus a 35% increase in valuation in 5 years. Pretty shrewd

[WhoTom]

Still out of my price range by about $1.8999B.

 

 

 

[VW82]

These valuations are getting a little ridiculous IMO. Bills are worth just shy of 2B but only have EBITA of 82M?? I wonder what their net income looks like after amortizing stadium reno's.

 

The current NBA valuations don't make sense either. Forbes claims there would be numerous bidders for a team like the Giants (@ 3.9B!!!). There are only so many people on Earth who can write a ten figure check AND like football/basketball. Many of them already own NBA/NFL teams.

 

Who's buying these teams in the future if the valuations continue to increase? I get that NFL expects increased revenue from their next TV deal but unless it's an increase by a multiple factor the financials won't come close to justifying it alone. There has to be an actual market of buyers. Currently there are few to none franchises for sale and so that drives up the price but I'll be very interested to see how it goes once the next generation of owners pass and their families can no longer afford the tax bill given the hard-to-believe unrealized capital gains over the last decade.      

 

 

 

Edited September 18, 2019 by VW82

[RochesterRob]

1 minute ago, VW82 said:

These valuations are getting a little ridiculous IMO. Bills are worth just shy of 2B but only have EBITA of 82M?? I wonder what their net income looks like after amortizing stadium reno's.

 

The current NBA valuations don't make sense either. Forbes claims there would be numerous bidders for a team like the Giants (@ 3.9B!!!). There are only so many people on Earth who can write a ten figure check AND like football/basketball. Many of them already own NBA/NFL teams.

 

Who's buying these teams in the future if the valuations continue to increase? I get that NFL expects increased revenue from their next TV deal but unless it's an increase by a multiple factor the financials won't come close to justifying it alone. There has to be an actual market of buyers. Currently there are few to none franchises for sale and so that drives up the price but I'll be very interested to see how it goes once the next generation of owners pass and their families can no longer afford the tax bill given the hard-to-believe capital gains over the last decade.      

 

 

 

  Well, it is pent up demand for people who lived and breathed football in their youth.  Contacts will drive the appreciation in value and the NFL still allows ownership groups as long as there is one big money individual involved.  If the NFL gets too big for its pants and will not allow minor owners and the contracts start shrinking then values will decrease.

26 minutes ago, jwhit34 said:

I am surprised that Jacksonville is not in the bottom 5. I thought they would give Buffalo a run for #32 but they came in at #23. 

 

Buffalo's operating income at $82 million is higher than 12 teams and is essentially the same as 2 others (who are at $83 million), so they are middle of the pack. Low operating costs I guess. They also tied for the 2nd highest percentage increase in franchise value (19%). 

 

 

  The possibility of them relocating to a city like London has to play into it.  

[RochesterRob]

59 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

isn’t Green Bay smaller?  Or no?

  GB is like Dallas in that it has a firm national fanbase and is a driver in primetime matchups.  If this article was done around 1980 or so GB would be a lot lower in relative value.  

Edited September 18, 2019 by RochesterRob

[SoCal Deek]

They say you want to own the cheapest house in the best neighborhood.

[BuffaloBill]

1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

 

It will go up more with a new stadium - especially downtown.  

 

The stadium deals are why some teams like Dallas are so valuable- it is about more than the team.  

 

 

At best your comparison is apples and oranges.  Dallas has huge corporate money that can help fill that stadium.  Dallas has an unemotional, oversized cavern like structure to play football in.  Personally, I hate it.

 

If you want tot see a real stadium full of real fans go out to Orchard Park.

 

There will need to be something done with the stadium situation in Buffalo.  I pray that it is a major overhaul of what they have and not a new downtown venue. 

[boater]

43 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

2+ billion dollar franchise fee each for London, Berlin,  Madrid,  Rome, Tokyo and Beijing someday

The college system doesn't make enough good quarterbacks right now. Imagine the dearth of quality QBs if it were a 38 team league.

 

[msw2112]

55 minutes ago, boater said:

Good point. GB itself is tiny. Only about 100,000.

 

But their market value is an odd duck to calculate because they are the only publicly held team in the NFL.

 

While true, it really depends on how you define "market."  The Packers' true "market" is the entire state of Wisconsin, including Milwaukee and Madison, which have much larger populations than Green Bay.  That said, Rochester and other parts of upstate & Western NY, and arguably Southern Ontario, are parts of the Bills market.  Depending on how you run the numbers, the Packers' market is larger than the Bills'.  If you include Toronto, the Bills would have the larger market, but if the "Toronto series" is evidence, Toronto is not part of the Bills market.

 

And, as a prior post just mentioned, Green Bay has a national following due to its history and tradition.  Plus, players like Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers drive TV ratings, as people want to see marquee players.  Let's hope that Josh Allen evolves into that type of player!

Edited September 18, 2019 by msw2112

[Alphadawg7]

30 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  I don't see the Bills worth much more than the 1.9 billion dollar figure and that seems generous.  The Cowboys have Jerry World and prime time exposure to drive their value which the Bills don't currently have.  I would quibble with the value for NE.  I see their value to the league declining once Bill B and Brady move on.  Dallas benefitted from being good during the early days of football when their games would be on near dinner time for many across the US so many would watch while looking over from the dinner table.  

 

Clippers sold for $2B when they were still the Clippers and the Donald Sterling Clippers.  They were reportedly the least valuable franchise and sold the highest price in league history.  NFL is the most valuable professional sports league, so I bet they go for over $2B if on the open market.  When they sold for $1.4B they were said to be worth way less than a billion too.  

 

Mute point though, Bills wont be for sale anytime soon.

[BillnutinHouston]

Moot point, also.

[RochesterRob]

10 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Clippers sold for $2B when they were still the Clippers and the Donald Sterling Clippers.  They were reportedly the least valuable franchise and sold the highest price in league history.  NFL is the most valuable professional sports league, so I bet they go for over $2B if on the open market.  When they sold for $1.4B they were said to be worth way less than a billion too.  

 

Mute point though, Bills wont be for sale anytime soon.

  As I understand it the NFL and NBA are like apples and oranges.  A NBA team is allowed to privatize more of its revenue versus a NFL team with LA being the second largest market in the US.  So in that sense the Clippers were sorely undervalued and lack of performance on the court was a very large factor in that during the Sterling days.  When the Bills were sold the Pegula's were a motivated buyer that wanted to keep the team in WNY.  Were there no motivated buyer the Bills most likely would have struggled to break the billion dollar mark.  The Pegula's could enhance the value of the Bills in my mind by asserting that Southern Ontario including Toronto is Bills territory which would increase market size considerably.  I think that surveys like this only use US metro areas so that leaves teams like Buffalo and Detroit at a disadvantage.

 

  Hopefully, the Bills will not be for sale for a long time and that the Pegula's have a long term plan in place for somebody to succeed them when the unfortunate time comes.

Edited September 18, 2019 by RochesterRob

[ddaryl]

1 hour ago, boater said:

Smallest market in the league = smallest net worth. No complaints from me.

 

 

Are we really the smallest market ?   I think the way they measure markets is flawed. 

 

I could care less.. but at 1.9 billion that seems ridiculous to think we are the least valuable. Are we forming an NFL Franchise market bubble ?  

[row_33]

24 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

Are we really the smallest market ?   I think the way they measure markets is flawed. 

 

I could care less.. but at 1.9 billion that seems ridiculous to think we are the least valuable. Are we forming an NFL Franchise market bubble ?  

 

i'd count Southern Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area in the Bills market for TV and potential ticket buyers

 

 

24 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

Are we really the smallest market ?   I think the way they measure markets is flawed. 

 

I could care less.. but at 1.9 billion that seems ridiculous to think we are the least valuable. Are we forming an NFL Franchise market bubble ?  

 

in business valuations for a private sale you have the concept of a Special Purchaser who might be insane enough to offer, out of the blue and needlessly, 3 times what the nearest bidder would dare.

 

they are wonderful things to enter your business transactions, the Clippers was another one where the purchase was silly beyond value because the purchaser simply didn't care

 

 

sometimes a Special Purchaser can't win, Michael Jackson couldn't buy the Elephant Man's Bones, a certain great hockey player from my hometown couldn't get the elderly couple living at the house he wanted to take multiples of the appraisal value....

 

 

 

Edited September 18, 2019 by row_33

[RochesterRob]

27 minutes ago, msw2112 said:

 

While true, it really depends on how you define "market."  The Packers' true "market" is the entire state of Wisconsin, including Milwaukee and Madison, which have much larger populations than Green Bay.  That said, Rochester and other parts of upstate & Western NY, and arguably Southern Ontario, are parts of the Bills market.  Depending on how you run the numbers, the Packers' market is larger than the Bills'.  If you include Toronto, the Bills would have the larger market, but if the "Toronto series" is evidence, Toronto is not part of the Bills market.

 

And, as a prior post just mentioned, Green Bay has a national following due to its history and tradition.  Plus, players like Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers drive TV ratings, as people want to see marquee players.  Let's hope that Josh Allen evolves into that type of player!

   The Packers true market is deceptive.  The very SE portion of Wisconsin is Chicago oriented and the Packers have a following in the state of Minnesota as they predate the Vikings by decades.  But yes Madison, Milwaukee, etc. are Packer territory.

[RiotAct]

40 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  GB is like Dallas in that it has a firm national fanbase and is a driver in primetime matchups.  If this article was done around 1980 or so GB would be a lot lower in relative value.  

true - but I was thinking ‘market’ is defined as the geographic metropolitan area around the stadium (like, the “home broadcast area” more or less).  Obviously the Bills and Packers have a ton of ex-pat fans living in areas that are doing better economically.

 

 

EDIT: what msw said.

Edited September 18, 2019 by RiotAct

[ddaryl]

13 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

i'd count Southern Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area in the Bills market for TV and potential ticket buyers

 

 

 

in business valuations for a private sale you have the concept of a Special Purchaser who might be insane enough to offer, out of the blue and needlessly, 3 times what the nearest bidder would dare.

 

they are wonderful things to enter your business transactions, the Clippers was another one where the purchase was silly beyond value because the purchaser simply didn't care

 

 

sometimes a Special Purchaser can't win, Michael Jackson couldn't buy the Elephant Man's Bones, a certain great hockey player from my hometown couldn't get the elderly couple living at the house he wanted to take multiples of the appraisal value....

 

 

 

 

I just don't see the value in the present valuations of NFL franchises. Yes all it takes is 1 person who just wants a status symbol. But at $2 billion the ROI on this is getting tight. The fact that the BIlls have increased 1/2 billion in a short time and still leaves us at the bottom of the list seems to be a franchise cost bubble forming IMO. It will be interesting to watch going forth, but the more franchises are worth the more insanely bad ideas we are going to get from the NFL as they desperately try to find more revenue to justify the valuations.