How would you rank the QBs of the 2018 NFL draft today in hindsight?

[CincyBillsFan]

For me it's to early to rank them but some observations:

 

*  Highest upside = Josh Allen

 

*  Most unlucky = Josh Rosen.  Being on TWO dumpster fire teams in his first year.  Are you kidding me!  Next most unlucky = Sam Darnold.  Mono!

 

*  Biggest enigma = Lamar Jackson. This guy has been a far better passer then most people thought he would be.  But how much is Jackson and how much is the scheme?  Trent Dilfer made the point that in almost all of Jackson's  TD passes the receivers were "high school open".  That suggests scheme but who knows.

 

*  Most likely to have a Sophomore Slump = Baker Mayfield.  To be fair to Mayfield you have to have had a good rookie season to actually have a slump.

 

 

 

 

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

 

Jackson was IMO the 2nd best QB prospect to come along since Andrew Luck. My rankings haven't changed since the start of the season besides maybe bumping Darnold down out of a tie with Allen for #3.

Let me guess.  The 1st best was Mahomes.

[GunnerBill]

11 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Wow.

 

Knowing your history, and seeing this post, I am shocked that you're this high on Allen this soon!

 

Any homerism in there, or just straight analysis?

 

Asking because it's so darn difficult to get that far away from a draft grade that I've worked up over months, but I've had to do it before (thinking specifically of Dak), so I'm curious as to how you deal with that?

 

My reason is that I have a pretty clear idea what I think wins in the NFL. You simply have to be able to move the ball consistently from the pocket in that intermediate range. That means quick decisive decision making and good ball placement. I always said with Allen that his ceiling was sky high. I knew he could make sensational throws on the run like the ones he made on Sunday. I knew he had an all world arm. I knew he had a gunslinger attitude. I missed a little bit on his legs and I have said that since last year. Had I properly appreciated his ability with his legs it would have significantly raised his floor as I saw it and I'd have had him right there with Lamar Jackson. What I didn't like on his college tape was the thing I value the most - quick, decisive and precise in that intermediate range. The balls that are NFL chain movers.

 

I know some people love seeing the QB throw the deep ball on a frozen rope 60 yards for the touchdown. But what I love more than anything else is to see a Quarterback take command, and metriculate the ball down the field on a 10, 12, 15 play drive for a touchdown.

 

I always felt that if Josh could get there with that then the potential was special. I said that repeatedly in draft season before the 2018 Draft. He ceiling was high, but to me the chances of him reaching it were low because I think you have to be able to do the things I didn't like on his college tape. And I also felt his floor was low - because if he didn't have those chain moving throws he was going to be an all or nothing guy every drive. To me he has proven in the last two weeks that he can lead those sorts of drives. He had four on Sunday he had two last Sunday and he had another two last Sunday where slightly random crazy fumbles undermined him. If that is real and not just a consequence of playing two bad New York teams (and I am inclined to think it is.... maybe that is where any homerism comes in?) then we have ourselves a Quarterback. And not just one who can be a top 10 top 12 guy but one who can potentially be elite. I'm not saying I believe he will be elite yet.... but based on what I have seen I do now believe he will be a franchise QB.

 

As for the others.... I like Baker's play. I don't love Baker's personality. That just worries me that at some point he becomes a distraction. Jackson I still haven't seen do the very thing I have talked about above. He is making a living on short quick hitters and deep balls at the moment. I liked Rudolph's game on Sunday. The reason I was higher on Rudolph than almost everyone was precisely because his college tape DID show a guy who was decisive and accurate on those intermediate range NFL chain movers. He demonstrated some of that on Sunday too (and the INT was an horrific drop from Moncreif who was immediately benched) and I am really interested to see how he does now with a real run as the starter. Darnold was trending up at the end of last year but was affected by the mono week 1 and is now out for a period of time. Rosen it is almost impossible to make a definitive decision on given he has been in two awful situations. But unless something dramatic happens then after this year his career is in jeopardy - no doubt.

 

 

Edited September 17, 2019 by GunnerBill

[DCOrange]

10 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Let me guess.  The 1st best was Mahomes.

That is correct.

[hemma]

Allen is getting a chance to continue to improve by virtue of the much improved OL and a couple of very competent receivers.

 

 

Beane had a close to perfect offseason.

 

 

[Fan in Chicago]

13 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

1 - Lamar:  Lead your team to the playoffs as a rookie, be raved about all offseason, and then start the first 2 weeks off this way earns a guy the top spot.  Doesn't matter if someone doesn't believe he can hold it long term, right now, he's been the best QB of the group thus far this year and helped get his team to the playoffs last year.  

2 - Allen:  A very close 2nd to Lamar, and I suspect as the season plays on that Lamar will come back a little from where he has been at against 2 terrible defenses and Allen will continue to get stronger from where he is at right now.  

3 - Baker:  Unfair to do this ranking before his 2nd game, but until we see him again, he cant be ranked higher than Lamar or Allen right now who have been impressive thus far.   Baker has a good night tonight, he makes a case for the top 2 again.  

4 - Darnold:  Kind of gets this spot be default IMO, and we won't know what to make of him until he gets over Mono now. 

5 - Rudolph:  Going to get to see what he can do now, but he has showed some potential.

6 - Rosen:  I think its pretty clear why he is below everyone else...he was always the wrong Josh.  

 

This is pretty fair. I havent seen Lamar play so cant tell his skills compared to Allen's. Allen has looked very good after that disastrous first half vs the Jets.

 

Having seen Baker spottily in his first game this season and then last night, I am very skeptical about how well he will do in the future. Also, having seen Darnold's games, I jst get the feeling he lacks the "it" factor. He is bland, makes many throws but is highly uninspiring. I realize this is a highly non-quantitative take but I can easily see him slide further once he sees the field.

 

This is a good take on Mayfield's showing last night: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001055959/article/what-we-learned-from-browns-win-over-jets-on-mnf

 

"4. Beckham's breakout night aside, Cleveland's offense was unsteady and uninspiring for the second straight week. Mayfield was sailing passes against a subpar Jets secondary, no one east of Odell could make plays in the passing game and the Browns were a woeful 4-for-13 on third downs. Baker threw the 18th interception of his young career with the Browns driving and the game in hand by forcing a speedball in the middle of the field. The miscue reeked of an overconfident gunslinger failing to manage the game correctly. Cleveland's attack has a long way to go to reach its offseason potential. Lucky for them, there are still 14 more opportunities to improve."

 

Rudolph and Rosen - we dont have enough data to know one way or another.  

 

As I have said before, I just love the fact that so many (potentially) good to great QBs have entered the league in the past 3 years. Very exciting to see the future of the NFL in their hands. Ofcourse, I will hope that Allen turns out to be the one with the most rings, but we all should be looking forward to several good QB battles in the years ahead. 

[DCOrange]

Re: Baker, I don't know what Cleveland is doing offensively just from a systematic standpoint. They seem to be swinging for a home run on every play instead of using Odell and Landry's ability to generate separation immediately to generate quick and easy yardage. Combine the focus on longer-developing plays with their porous offensive line and you have the makings of screwing up what should be a good offense.

 

And I think they made a mistake trading Zeitler for Olivier Vernon. With Zeitler and Bitonio, they could have at least had two very good guards on the O-Line. Now they're left at a weakness with 4 of their 5 blockers.

[Kirby Jackson]

14 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Re: Baker, I don't know what Cleveland is doing offensively just from a systematic standpoint. They seem to be swinging for a home run on every play instead of using Odell and Landry's ability to generate separation immediately to generate quick and easy yardage. Combine the focus on longer-developing plays with their porous offensive line and you have the makings of screwing up what should be a good offense.

 

And I think they made a mistake trading Zeitler for Olivier Vernon. With Zeitler and Bitonio, they could have at least had two very good guards on the O-Line. Now they're left at a weakness with 4 of their 5 blockers.

The Browns should snap the ball a little later in the play clock. I mean last night they left a full second on there about a dozen times. 

[GunnerBill]

Just watched Baltimore - Arizona. That is the best I have seen Lamar play too. 

[Seven-N-Nine]

If Jackson wins against Mahomes this weekend, he moves to the top.