Reader Posted September 11, 2019 Posted September 11, 2019 I stumbled upon 538's bizarre quarterback graph. They think Allen is the 2nd best QB in the division being slightly below average. There are some other, interesting tidbits in there. 538
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted September 11, 2019 Posted September 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, Reader said: I stumbled upon 538's bizarre quarterback graph. They think Allen is the 2nd best QB in the division being slightly below average. There are some other, interesting tidbits in there. 538 Big surprises for me are Jared Goff at 145 and Kirk Cousins at 171, just at a quick glance.
GoBills808 Posted September 11, 2019 Posted September 11, 2019 That chart, if going by last week’s games, is suspect
PlayoffsPlease Posted September 11, 2019 Posted September 11, 2019 Results actually seem pretty reasonable. Interesting that Mayfield and Allen are in a dead heat tie.
Warcodered Posted September 11, 2019 Posted September 11, 2019 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Reader said: I stumbled upon 538's bizarre quarterback graph. They think Allen is the 2nd best QB in the division being slightly below average. There are some other, interesting tidbits in there. 538 He's 2nd out of 10(Darnold came in 4th behind Fitz?) so I'm going to guess they're might be something throwing the average off(Brady). Then comparing him to other divisions he's tied with Baker Mayfield and Mitchel Trubisky and 1pt higher than Lamar Jackson and Derek Carr. Edited September 11, 2019 by Warcodered
BullBuchanan Posted September 11, 2019 Posted September 11, 2019 25 minutes ago, Reader said: I stumbled upon 538's bizarre quarterback graph. They think Allen is the 2nd best QB in the division being slightly below average. There are some other, interesting tidbits in there. 538 You have to look into their methodology to see where/why this happens. This is all data driven:Performance is measured according to “VALUE,” a regression between ESPN’s Total QBR yards above replacement and basic box score numbers (including rushing stats) from a given game, adjusted for the quality of opposing defenses. The formula for VALUE is: -2.2 * Pass Attempts + 3.7 * Completions + (Passing Yards / 5) + 11.3 * Passing TDs – 14.1 * Interceptions – 8 * Times Sacked – 1.1 * Rush Attempts + 0.6 * Rushing Yards + 15.9 * Rushing TDs.3
GoBills808 Posted September 11, 2019 Posted September 11, 2019 Keenum above Stafford? Roethlisberger over Brady?
Reader Posted September 11, 2019 Author Posted September 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Keenum above Stafford? Roethlisberger over Brady? Allen is tied for 17th I think, and I think he and about 6-8 more quarterbacks are ahead of Goff.
GoBills808 Posted September 11, 2019 Posted September 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Reader said: Allen is tied for 17th I think, and I think he and about 6-8 more quarterbacks are ahead of Goff. Very strange chart
StHustle Posted September 11, 2019 Posted September 11, 2019 Mahomes best QB in the league? Ok I can buy that. Big Ben a close second???? GTFOH
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted September 11, 2019 Posted September 11, 2019 25 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said: The formula for VALUE is: -2.2 * Pass Attempts + 3.7 * Completions + (Passing Yards / 5) + 11.3 * Passing TDs – 14.1 * Interceptions – 8 * Times Sacked – 1.1 * Rush Attempts + 0.6 * Rushing Yards + 15.9 * Rushing TDs.3 I refuse to take up a hobby that involves more work than Grade 11 Algebra. 1
JoPoy88 Posted September 12, 2019 Posted September 12, 2019 43 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said: You have to look into their methodology to see where/why this happens. This is all data driven:Performance is measured according to “VALUE,” a regression between ESPN’s Total QBR yards above replacement and basic box score numbers (including rushing stats) from a given game, adjusted for the quality of opposing defenses. The formula for VALUE is: -2.2 * Pass Attempts + 3.7 * Completions + (Passing Yards / 5) + 11.3 * Passing TDs – 14.1 * Interceptions – 8 * Times Sacked – 1.1 * Rush Attempts + 0.6 * Rushing Yards + 15.9 * Rushing TDs.3 I guess my remaining question is where do these multipliers on each of these stats come from? Not to get too meta, but i’d rather know the thinking behind the formula itself, rather than just the formula.
cage Posted September 12, 2019 Posted September 12, 2019 This data was published before the season started, so it does not include Week 1 results
Big C Posted September 12, 2019 Posted September 12, 2019 23 minutes ago, cage said: This data was published before the season started, so it does not include Week 1 results The page says it was updated today. Not totally sure how to read that, but nothing too crazy.
oldmanfan Posted September 12, 2019 Posted September 12, 2019 1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said: You have to look into their methodology to see where/why this happens. This is all data driven:Performance is measured according to “VALUE,” a regression between ESPN’s Total QBR yards above replacement and basic box score numbers (including rushing stats) from a given game, adjusted for the quality of opposing defenses. The formula for VALUE is: -2.2 * Pass Attempts + 3.7 * Completions + (Passing Yards / 5) + 11.3 * Passing TDs – 14.1 * Interceptions – 8 * Times Sacked – 1.1 * Rush Attempts + 0.6 * Rushing Yards + 15.9 * Rushing TDs.3 A number of variables, which I agree is needed to evaluate a QB. I’d like to know why each variable is weighted by a specific amount. How was that determined?
RememberTheRockpile Posted September 12, 2019 Posted September 12, 2019 1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said: You have to look into their methodology to see where/why this happens. This is all data driven:Performance is measured according to “VALUE,” a regression between ESPN’s Total QBR yards above replacement and basic box score numbers (including rushing stats) from a given game, adjusted for the quality of opposing defenses. The formula for VALUE is: -2.2 * Pass Attempts + 3.7 * Completions + (Passing Yards / 5) + 11.3 * Passing TDs – 14.1 * Interceptions – 8 * Times Sacked – 1.1 * Rush Attempts + 0.6 * Rushing Yards + 15.9 * Rushing TDs.3 It isn't "data driven" as ESPN's Total QBR is loaded with subjective judgements.
BidsJr Posted September 12, 2019 Posted September 12, 2019 2 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said: I refuse to take up a hobby that involves more work than Grade 11 Algebra. Wait didn't Algebra happen in 7th grade? 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted September 12, 2019 Posted September 12, 2019 3 hours ago, GoBills808 said: That chart, if going by last week’s games, is suspect If I understand what they're doing, it's a statistical model based on a bunch of stuff, but for QB it uses a 10 game rolling average
GoBills808 Posted September 12, 2019 Posted September 12, 2019 Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said: If I understand what they're doing, it's a statistical model based on a bunch of stuff, but for QB it uses a 10 game rolling average I wonder if they weight playoff games differently
Hapless Bills Fan Posted September 12, 2019 Posted September 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: I wonder if they weight playoff games differently They try to be transparent, I just don't have the patience to wade through it
Recommended Posts