Josh Allen's Adjusted stats for week 1

[BuffaloHokie13]

3 minutes ago, wiley16350 said:

I will put it this way.  According to the official stats, Sam Darnold was the better QB.  According to my Total Effectiveness adjusted stat, Allen was the better QB.

According to ANY/A Allen was better. According to passer rating Darnold was better.

[wiley16350]

14 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

According to ANY/A Allen was better. According to passer rating Darnold was better.

Let me ask you a question.

 

Do you think Aaron Rodgers was better on Thursday night than Allen was on Sunday?

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, wiley16350 said:

Let me ask you a question.

 

Do you think Aaron Rodgers was better on Thursday night than Allen was on Sunday?

Slightly less productive with 0 turnovers and a W against a much better defense. Yes.

[Kemp]

10 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

If you are going to not charge him with an INT that actually happened because it was a tipped pass, then you need to charge him for the INT that was his fault but called back for a penalty.  

 

Isn't it a negative when your pass gets tipped, too?

[wiley16350]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Slightly less productive with 0 turnovers and a W against a much better defense. Yes.

Rodgers didn't have the traditional turnovers but he missed 3rd down throws and open receivers on 3rd downs that did stall drives, effectively causing turnovers.  I credited him with 2.75 turnovers because his poor play led to failed drives.  Rodgers can actually be secretly bad.  He takes bad sacks or has bad throwaways because he isn't aware of open receivers despite having the time to find them.  In that game, he missed multiple throws to open receivers.  As a passer, Rodgers did better than Allen but when it came to actually producing and not be the reason for failures, Rodgers was worse.  The only reason Rodgers was a better passer is because he didn't have interceptions like Allen did but when it came to actually throwing the ball, Allen was better.

[Kemp]

1 hour ago, wiley16350 said:

  They are a reflection of how the QB actually played, meaning that he is credited for drops and the like.  He is absolved of any plays that weren't actually his fault or that didn't deserve a negative play, such as spikes, hail mary's or turnovers that he didn't really cause.  He is blamed for turnovers that he did cause, whether they counted or didn't count.  These things are adjusted based on situation, the availability of receivers and amount of pressure.

 

If a QB throws a ball up for grabs and it ends up a TD, is it a positive, negative, or neither in your system?

 

I would assume a negative based on your stated logic. 

[wiley16350]

3 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

Isn't it a negative when your pass gets tipped, too?

If this is directed at me, the answer is yes and no.  That can be one of the hardest things to judge.  Most of the time I say no unless the ball is thrown low (to the chest or head area of the defender) and it is obvious that the QB could have done better.  On that play I wouldn't rule out some responsibility on Allen because the defender was in view but it is hard to say for sure because it seemed like the play was designed to go where Allen was throwing it.  Maybe the tackle was supposed to chop block to create a passing lane and he just didn't get there or in time or didn't expect the defender to come.  That is why I go with questionable fault on things like that.

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, wiley16350 said:

Rodgers didn't have the traditional turnovers but he missed 3rd down throws and open receivers on 3rd downs that did stall drives, effectively causing turnovers.  I credited him with 2.75 turnovers because his poor play led to failed drives.  Rodgers can actually be secretly bad.  He takes bad sacks or has bad throwaways because he isn't aware of open receivers despite having the time to find them.  In that game, he missed multiple throws to open receivers.  As a passer, Rodgers did better than Allen but when it came to actually producing and not be the reason for failures, Rodgers was worse.  The only reason Rodgers was a better passer is because he didn't have interceptions like Allen did but when it came to actually throwing the ball, Allen was better.

I disagree with this statement, and the general premise, but that's just me. I'm not a fan of altering stats, as it is an easy window for bias and destroys all credibility in my eyes. If you want to run multiple permutations of the stats, that's fine. If you want to add a multiplier of some kind to a stat you believe correlates to success or winning, that makes sense. Crediting someone with turnovers they didn't commit feels just as disingenuous as taking turnovers away from someone who committed them. I don't know your formula, I have a rating system of my own that I like. It sounds like you want to count incompletions on 3rd downs as a quasi-turnover contextually. When you get to the point of altering the actual stats I would consider it analysis, rather than stats.

 

Either way, more power to ya. Go Bills.

[wiley16350]

6 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

If a QB throws a ball up for grabs and it ends up a TD, is it a positive, negative, or neither in your system?

 

I would assume a negative based on your stated logic. 

If the receiver got both hands on it, then it would be a positive.  If the defender should have intercepted it but the receiver steals it away then it would be a negative.  If the receiver deserves more credit for catching it, then the completion % would be reduced.  I take all variables into account.

[Kemp]

8 minutes ago, wiley16350 said:

If the receiver got both hands on it, then it would be a positive.  If the defender should have intercepted it but the receiver steals it away then it would be a negative.  If the receiver deserves more credit for catching it, then the completion % would be reduced.  I take all variables into account.

 

If the receiver gets both hands on an up-for-grab ball, that's a great play by the WR and/or a bad play by the D. The throw is still a bad one. 

[wiley16350]

17 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I disagree with this statement, and the general premise, but that's just me. I'm not a fan of altering stats, as it is an easy window for bias and destroys all credibility in my eyes. If you want to run multiple permutations of the stats, that's fine. If you want to add a multiplier of some kind to a stat you believe correlates to success or winning, that makes sense. Crediting someone with turnovers they didn't commit feels just as disingenuous as taking turnovers away from someone who committed them. I don't know your formula, I have a rating system of my own that I like. It sounds like you want to count incompletions on 3rd downs as a quasi-turnover contextually. When you get to the point of altering the actual stats I would consider it analysis, rather than stats.

 

Either way, more power to ya. Go Bills.

You're right, it is an easy window for Bias.  I absolutely agree with that, which is why I make sure that I am very aware of mine and I will have a debate in my own mind while doing this and try to make sure that I am as accurate as possible.  I understand that may be a reason to be skeptical of adjusted stats, I can be skeptical of Pro Football Focus at times.  All you can do is look at what I produce and see if you think that it matches with how well a QB played.  Just be mindful, the coaches tape can take off some of the shine on certain QB's like Aaron Rodgers and Tyrod Taylor.  Those 2 don't turn the ball over a lot but that's because they take sacks, throw balls away and run for meaningless yards that make the team look bad but not their stats.  For the record, Rodgers is better than Taylor but they have some similarities.  I'm sorry but what makes a poor 3rd down throw better than an interception?  They accomplish the same thing, turning the ball over.  I don't add that kind of turnover to the passing stats, I just add it to the total QB effectiveness rating.  That is why there are separate categories.  You can see what he did directly as a passer and what he did in total play.

Edited September 11, 2019 by wiley16350

[BuffaloHokie13]

Just now, wiley16350 said:

You're right, it is an easy window for Bias.  I absolutely agree with that, which is why I make sure that I am very aware of mine and I will have a debate in my own mind while doing this and try to make sure that I am as accurate as possible.  I understand that may be a reason to be skeptical of adjusted stats, I can be skeptical of Pro Football Focus at times.  All you can do is look at what I produce and see if you think that it matches with how well a QB played.  Just be mindful, the coaches tape can show off some of the shine on certain QB's like Aaron Rodgers and Tyrod Taylor.  Those 2 don't turn the ball over a lot but that's because they take sacks, throw balls away and run for meaningless yards that make the team look bad but not their stats.  For the record, Rodgers is better than Taylor but they have some similarities.  I'm sorry but what makes a poor 3rd down throw better than an interception?  They accomplish the same thing, turning the ball over.  I don't add that kind of turnover to the passing stats, I just add it to the total QB effectiveness rating.  That is why there are separate categories.  You can see what he did directly as a passer and what he did in total play.

Yeah, based on your answers to other questions it's definitely analysis. Certainly has it's merits. I'm interested to see how it matches up with my perception of the QBs.

 

Cheers.

[wiley16350]

2 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

If the receiver gets both hands on an up-for-grab ball, that's a great play by the WR and/or a bad play by the D. The throw is still a bad one. 

Actually it isn't.  I guess it depends on what you mean but sometimes a jump ball is the best way to make a play.  The QB showing confidence in his receiver isn't a bad thing.  Now if the throw is at the back of a defender and the receiver makes a catch over him, then it wasn't a good throw but that isn't what I was thinking of.

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Thanks for the obvious effort put into your analysis OP, appreciate the deep dive beyond the box score! 

[Kemp]

Just now, wiley16350 said:

Actually it isn't.  I guess it depends on what you mean but sometimes a jump ball is the best way to make a play.  The QB showing confidence in his receiver isn't a bad thing.  Now if the throw is at the back of a defender and the receiver makes a catch over him, then it wasn't a good throw but that isn't what I was thinking of.

 

I disagree.

 

The only time an up-for-grab is a positive is if time is running out and a TD is a necessity. Even then, it's not really a positive. It's a no-brainer.

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

Adjusted stats are a subjective interpretation on the reviewers part, not necessarily an accurate one. For instance. on the fumble you charged Allen with, I see Dawkins getting completely smoked by Jenkins. Allen does a good job of seeing it, tucks the ball in, and starts to run up into the pocket. Jenkins gets his hand in and punches the ball out. I don't consider that Allen's fault. That was poor play by Dawkins and a great play by Jenkins.

 

 

 

Also, charging Allen with an interception of a tipped pass at the line? QBs all over the league get passes tipped. They have absolutely no control over where they go once they are tipped.

It was tipped because he starred down the wr and telegraphed it. The other 3 TO's were the faults of Beasley, Morse & Dawkins. JA had 1 legit int....plain & simple. 

[wiley16350]

6 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

I disagree.

 

The only time an up-for-grab is a positive is if time is running out and a TD is a necessity. Even then, it's not really a positive. It's a no-brainer.

Well we can differ on that.  Playing in the backyard, My brother was great at jump balls and I would just throw him one because it was the easiest way to get the ball downfield.  It was at times the play I felt most confident in making because he was that good at it and I knew the defenders couldn't stop it.

5 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

It was tipped because he starred down the wr and telegraphed it. The other 3 TO's were the faults of Beasley, Morse & Dawkins. JA had 1 legit int....plain & simple. 

It's funny how people see different things.  In my opinion he got the ball and immediately threw the pass.  The defender tipped it because he was coming in on a blitz and actually saw Allen throw the ball so he jumped and knocked it down as he was running.  He wasn't sitting at the line waiting and then jumped up and knocked it down because he knew that was where the pass was going.

Edited September 11, 2019 by wiley16350

[billsfan1959]

2 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

It was tipped because he starred down the wr and telegraphed it. The other 3 TO's were the faults of Beasley, Morse & Dawkins. JA had 1 legit int....plain & simple. 

That was his read on the play and where he should have gone with the ball. The defender did what defenders do at the line when the QB releases the ball, he got his hands up and managed to deflect the ball. It happens almost every game to almost every QB. The interception is aboult a lucky bounce. Period.

[Jobot]

The one thing I don't know regarding Moseley, is if the Bills opted to avoid running the ball specifically when he was in the game, because they knew whether this would allow them to be successful.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Josh’s adjusted stats for week 1:

 

1-0