Josh Allen's Adjusted stats for week 1

[Chandler#81]

11 minutes ago, wiley16350 said:

What does your post add to the conversation?  All it really says "look at me, I can make a snarky comment".  It adds nothing to the conversation.  So the irony appears lost on you that your post meets the very definition of LAMP.  Based on the likes, 7-0, people have found my original post more valuable than yours.  That seems to tell me that your post is more LAMP worthy than mine.  With that said, I will still take your comment into consideration.  If tomorrow morning, your post has more likes than my original post, I will stop sharing my adjusted statistics because then I will know that people aren't really interested.  I don't need to post here, I genuinely thought there would be people interested in them.  7 likes and over 70 downloads seem to say that people had an interest but maybe I'm just a silly person and that isn't really enough worthy interest and there are many more like you that are easily irked over something so insignificant, meaning I need to stop sharing asap.

To be fair to you, I skip over the running plays so it is possible that Gore wasn't that effective because of what Mosely was doing or calling and not for other reasons.

Get off your high horse, wile E., or you won’t have a tomorrow. 

All your thread is, is an If/then stat altering to show your Allen fandom. It’s cool, but hardly thread worthy.

Look

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My

Post.

[Boca BIlls]

Should we tell the NFL to adjust the win?

[mead107]

What are adjusted stats? 

Fact or made up ? 

[Foxx]

2 minutes ago, mead107 said:

What are adjusted stats? 

Fact or made up ? 

if this, then that.

[billsfan1959]

12 minutes ago, wiley16350 said:

Adjusted stats are about accurately representing what the QB did within the circumstances he faced.  I also add a stat line that combines all of the adjusted stats attributed to the QB into the NFL's passer rating to have as accurate representation of how the QB played as possible.  If your fine with statistics that distort the truth of how well a QB played, then fine but I like to get a more accurate gauge of QB play.  i believe there are others like me that are interested in that too.

Adjusted stats are a subjective interpretation on the reviewers part, not necessarily an accurate one. For instance. on the fumble you charged Allen with, I see Dawkins getting completely smoked by Jenkins. Allen does a good job of seeing it, tucks the ball in, and starts to run up into the pocket. Jenkins gets his hand in and punches the ball out. I don't consider that Allen's fault. That was poor play by Dawkins and a great play by Jenkins.

 

 

 

Also, charging Allen with an interception of a tipped pass at the line? QBs all over the league get passes tipped. They have absolutely no control over where they go once they are tipped.

Edited September 11, 2019 by billsfan1959

[mead107]

5 minutes ago, Foxx said:

if this, then that.

If is a big word

[wiley16350]

Just now, Boca BIlls said:

1 minute ago, mead107 said:

What are adjusted stats? 

Fact or made up ? 

 

  They are a reflection of how the QB actually played, meaning that he is credited for drops and the like.  He is absolved of any plays that weren't actually his fault or that didn't deserve a negative play, such as spikes, hail mary's or turnovers that he didn't really cause.  He is blamed for turnovers that he did cause, whether they counted or didn't count.  These things are adjusted based on situation, the availability of receivers and amount of pressure.

[Boca BIlls]

Just now, wiley16350 said:

  They are a reflection of how the QB actually played, meaning that he is credited for drops and the like.  He is absolved of any plays that weren't actually his fault or that didn't deserve a negative play, such as spikes, hail mary's or turnovers that he didn't really cause.  He is blamed for turnovers that he did cause, whether they counted or didn't count.  These things are adjusted based on situation, the availability of receivers and amount of pressure.

No it's not...b.c how they actually played is... How they played 

[mead107]

1 minute ago, wiley16350 said:

  They are a reflection of how the QB actually played, meaning that he is credited for drops and the like.  He is absolved of any plays that weren't actually his fault or that didn't deserve a negative play, such as spikes, hail mary's or turnovers that he didn't really cause.  He is blamed for turnovers that he did cause, whether they counted or didn't count.  These things are adjusted based on situation, the availability of receivers and amount of pressure.

Is this acceptable to the nfl Or made up by fans? 

[wiley16350]

1 minute ago, Boca BIlls said:

No it's not...b.c how they actually played is... How they played 

So a 50 yard screen pass for a TD deserves a better rating than a 50 yard deep pass down to the 1 (and the QB took a hit to make the play)?  An interception that bounced off a receiver deserves the same rating as an interception thrown right to a defender? 

[Mat68]

I've flipped flopped.  No differant than with Farve.  Teams are going to let him dink and dunk all day.  They dont think he or the offense can play efficient enough to win that way.  Buffalo needs to incorporate the run quicker.  Set up play action better.  Get chunk plays sooner.  

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, wiley16350 said:

So a 50 yard screen pass for a TD deserves a better rating than a 50 yard deep pass down to the 1 (and the QB took a hit to make the play)?  An interception that bounced off a receiver deserves the same rating as an interception thrown right to a defender? 

Let's say the QB correctly reads a blitz, manages to evade the blitz, finds an open receiver 10 yards down the field, throws a perfect pass under pressure, and the receiver gets another 40 yards after the catch. Does that count less than if the QB is standing in a perfect pocket, with no defender even close to him, has all the time in the world to throw, throws to a receiver all alone 50 yards downfield after completely beating his defender? 

[Boca BIlls]

8 minutes ago, wiley16350 said:

So a 50 yard screen pass for a TD deserves a better rating than a 50 yard deep pass down to the 1 (and the QB took a hit to make the play)?  An interception that bounced off a receiver deserves the same rating as an interception thrown right to a defender? 

Doesn't matter what your rating is..it's what happened in the game. You are too worried about "Ratings" just watch the game and you will know. This "adjusted" BS is just nonsense. Are we adjusting wins and losses also?

 

I don't feel like coming into this thread so I will ADJUST this argument to say you win. 

Edited September 11, 2019 by Boca BIlls

[wiley16350]

37 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Get off your high horse, wile E., or you won’t have a tomorrow. 

All your thread is, is an If/then stat altering to show your Allen fandom. It’s cool, but hardly thread worthy.

Look

At

My

Post.

Except that it isn't an if, then that.  It is what he did.  He threw the ball to Beasley and it should have been a completion for 5 yards or an incomplete pass at worst.  Which is why he was considered to be 50% on that play.  It shouldn't have been an interception based on what Allen actually did.  On the interception Allen got turned over, I did the same thing.  He made a bad decision, he deserved an interception.  That play went from being nothing in the official stats to an interception on mine because that is what Allen deserved on that play.  Now for Allen, this game kind of evened out in the turnover department but that isn't the case with a lot of games.

12 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

Let's say the QB correctly reads a blitz, manages to evade the blitz, finds an open receiver 10 yards down the field, throws a perfect pass under pressure, and the receiver gets another 40 yards after the catch. Does that count less than if the QB is standing in a perfect pocket, with no defender even close to him, has all the time in the world to throw, throws to a receiver all alone 50 yards downfield after completely beating his defender? 

I credit the QB with 8 yards for avoiding the pressure and 10 yards in the air.  I will also add YAC yards if i feel like the QB deserves them.  The QB gets 50 yards on the other throw.  Both could credit for a score.  The situation you present is part of the reason Allen was credited with an extra 64 yards.

Edited September 11, 2019 by wiley16350

[RochesterLifer]

35 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Get off your high horse, wile E., or you won’t have a tomorrow. 

 

 

Are you going to beat him up and take his lunch money?

[billsfan1959]

5 minutes ago, wiley16350 said:

I credit the QB with 8 yards for avoiding the pressure and 10 yards in the air.  I will also add YAC yards if i feel like the QB deserves them.  The QB gets 50 yards on the other throw.  Both could credit for a score.

My point exactly. In my first scenario, the entire play is negated if the QB doesn't read the blitz, doesn't evade the pressure, doesn't find the receiver, and doesn't make an accurate throw under pressure. In the second scenario, the QB simply drops back and completes a pass any QB should complete 99.9% of the time because the line did an excellent job and his receiver managed to get wide open. To me, it's not even close as to which QB made the better play, by far. Yet, they could end up with the same rating, or, the first QB could actually end up with a lower rating.

 

It's a fun excersice; however, I would not say it always gives a more accurate assessment of play. Because, in the end, it is acompletely subjective evaluation that only takes into account a small percentage of all the variables that went into any given play.

[wiley16350]

38 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

Adjusted stats are a subjective interpretation on the reviewers part, not necessarily an accurate one. For instance. on the fumble you charged Allen with, I see Dawkins getting completely smoked by Jenkins. Allen does a good job of seeing it, tucks the ball in, and starts to run up into the pocket. Jenkins gets his hand in and punches the ball out. I don't consider that Allen's fault. That was poor play by Dawkins and a great play by Jenkins.

 

 

 

Also, charging Allen with an interception of a tipped pass at the line? QBs all over the league get passes tipped. They have absolutely no control over where they go once they are tipped.

I didn't charge Allen with the tipped int.  I charged him with 3 turnovers.  The interception that got called back.  The interception that was dropped and the fumble you mentioned above.  I am willing to go back and watch that fumble again and adjust.  I felt like he could have avoided that fumble.

[wiley16350]

2 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

My point exactly. In my first scenario, the entire play is negated if the QB doesn't read the blitz, doesn't evade the pressure, doesn't find the receiver, and doesn't make an accurate throw under pressure. In the second scenario, the QB simply drops back and completes a pass any QB should complete 99.9% of the time because the line did an excellent job and his receiver managed to get wide open. To me, it's not even close as to which QB made the better play, by far. Yet, they could end up with the same rating, or, the first QB could actually end up with a lower rating.

 

It's a fun excersice; however, I would not say it always gives a more accurate assessment of play. Because, in the end, it is acompletely subjective evaluation that only takes into account a small percentage of all the variables that went into any given play.

I would say that it is always more accurate than the official stats but not necessarily perfect.  It isn't really subjective for the most part.  There are plays where it requires more subjectivity but the more subjective it is, the less weight I put into the stat by reducing the impact, which is why you'll see portions of whole numbers in the chart.  Some plays don't earn full weight.  Take the fumble you mentioned before.  If I go back and watch it and agree with your assessment then I can change it to a portion of a fumble rather than a full fumble.  I also want to point out that I didn't charge Allen with that sack, only the fumble.  A QB can be charged with both.

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It was a factor. Without question. They are already thin at linebacker and Mosely was having a hell of a game. Not saying we wouldn't have come back anyway... but it was a factor and a factor in the run game popping. 

 

Mosley's best play, IMO, was blindly batting down a surefire TD pass to Brown, which lead to the near INT on the Bills' first scoring drive.

 

Of course, that's the play he was injured on, but if he doesn't bat down that pass, Brown snags a TD reception and the game gets even closer than it did.

[wiley16350]

18 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

My point exactly. In my first scenario, the entire play is negated if the QB doesn't read the blitz, doesn't evade the pressure, doesn't find the receiver, and doesn't make an accurate throw under pressure. In the second scenario, the QB simply drops back and completes a pass any QB should complete 99.9% of the time because the line did an excellent job and his receiver managed to get wide open. To me, it's not even close as to which QB made the better play, by far. Yet, they could end up with the same rating, or, the first QB could actually end up with a lower rating.

 

It's a fun excersice; however, I would not say it always gives a more accurate assessment of play. Because, in the end, it is acompletely subjective evaluation that only takes into account a small percentage of all the variables that went into any given play.

I will put it this way.  According to the official stats, Sam Darnold was the better QB.  According to my Total Effectiveness adjusted stat, Allen was the better QB.