Josh Allen's Adjusted stats for week 1

[wiley16350]

I have finished adjusting the QB stats for the Bills vs Jets game.  I have attached my game charts for Allen and Darnold.  Some quick points.

 

- Allen wasn't as bad as his 4 turnovers but I still charged him with 3.  I didn't charge him for the Beasley pick.  It could have been a better pass but it wasn't worthy of being an interception either. 

 

- As I have said before, accuracy isn't really his issue, he can easily be a 60% passer even with his inconsistency in perfect placement.

 

- Decision making is where he needs to improve.  There were open receivers that he didn't find but I still had him down for an 81% positive percentage.  The majority of the 19% bad was due to not finding an open receiver when they were available.

 

- He did a good job of avoiding sacks and saved the Bills around 64 potential lost yards.

 

- Darnold struggled to find open receivers but pressure was more of a factor for him.  I have no problem giving the Bills most of the credit for Darnold's struggles.  Two of his worst throws came after the Bills got the lead and the Jets only needed a Field Goal to get the lead, so he deserved some blame for not delivering in the clutch. 

 

- Darnold finished with a better adjusted passer rating because of Allen's int's but when you factor in all aspects of QB play, Allen received a better total effectiveness rating (my combination rating that includes all aspects of QB play).

 

- The CJ Mosely effect was completely over rated.  I heard his name like 3 or 4 times the whole game.  The first was when he lucked into the interception and got a free run to the end zone.  The second was when he benefited from the fumbled exchange caused more by Qunninen Williams than Mosely.  The 3rd was when the ball hit his arm while covering John Brown.  He had good coverage on that play but it wasn't a good enough throw from Allen either.  I guess to be that close against Brown is praise worthy enough for a linebacker but he didn't actually make a play on the ball.  The Bills didn't start producing because Mosely was out.  They just stopped shooting themselves in the foot.

 

- The Bills were clearly the better team in this game.  If Allen continues to improve his decision making, they have the talent based on this game.

JA-2019-WK1.pdf SD-2019-WK1.pdf

[BuffaloMatt]

Mosley called the D. Don't underrate that role!

[Ethan in Cleveland]

If you are going to not charge him with an INT that actually happened because it was a tipped pass, then you need to charge him for the INT that was his fault but called back for a penalty.  

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

If you are going to not charge him with an INT that actually happened because it was a tipped pass, then you need to charge him for the INT that was his fault but called back for a penalty.  

 

32 minutes ago, wiley16350 said:

I have finished adjusting the QB stats for the Bills vs Jets game.  I have attached my game charts for Allen and Darnold.  Some quick points.

 

- Allen wasn't as bad as his 4 turnovers but I still charged him with 3.  I didn't charge him for the Beasley pick.  It could have been a better pass but it wasn't worthy of being an interception either. 

 

- As I have said before, accuracy isn't really his issue, he can easily be a 60% passer even with his inconsistency in perfect placement.

 

- Decision making is where he needs to improve.  There were open receivers that he didn't find but I still had him down for an 81% positive percentage.  The majority of the 19% bad was due to not finding an open receiver when they were available.

 

- He did a good job of avoiding sacks and saved the Bills around 64 potential lost yards.

 

- Darnold struggled to find open receivers but pressure was more of a factor for him.  I have no problem giving the Bills most of the credit for Darnold's struggles.  Two of his worst throws came after the Bills got the lead and the Jets only needed a Field Goal to get the lead, so he deserved some blame for not delivering in the clutch. 

 

- Darnold finished with a better adjusted passer rating because of Allen's int's but when you factor in all aspects of QB play, Allen received a better total effectiveness rating (my combination rating that includes all aspects of QB play).

 

- The CJ Mosely effect was completely over rated.  I heard his name like 3 or 4 times the whole game.  The first was when he lucked into the interception and got a free run to the end zone.  The second was when he benefited from the fumbled exchange caused more by Qunninen Williams than Mosely.  The 3rd was when the ball hit his arm while covering John Brown.  He had good coverage on that play but it wasn't a good enough throw from Allen either.  I guess to be that close against Brown is praise worthy enough for a linebacker but he didn't actually make a play on the ball.  The Bills didn't start producing because Mosely was out.  They just stopped shooting themselves in the foot.

 

- The Bills were clearly the better team in this game.  If Allen continues to improve his decision making, they have the talent based on this game.

JA-2019-WK1.pdf 42.39 kB · 17 downloads SD-2019-WK1.pdf 41.68 kB · 2 downloads

 

Morse was the responsible one on his fumble and hard to fault Allen on the other fumble when Dawkins whiffed on his block too.  

 

Honestly, he had one bad turnover that was totally on him. 

 

And the INT that was over turned, it looked more like Allen saw the flag and knew he had a free play, so hard to say if it was a bad decision or just taking a shot on what he knew was a free play anyway.  QBs do this all the time

Edited September 11, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[wiley16350]

Just now, BuffaloMatt said:

Mosley called the D. Don't underrate that role!

That doesn't matter because the Jets weren't the ones stopping the Bills.  

- First drive ended on a Josh Allen fumble.  The defense created the pressure but Allen caused the fumble.  He saw it coming and should have tucked it away and take the sack.  It would have been 3rd and long but the Bills could still have completed a short pass to get in field goal range.

 

- Second drive ended on the interception caused by the Beasley deflection.  that was on 1st down and not in any way caused by the Jets.

 

- Third drive should have ended in a field goal but the Bills had a dumb unsportsmanlike penalty take them out of field goal range.

 

- Fourth drive ended with a dropped pass

 

- Fifth drive ended with the fumbled exchange and the Bills close to long field goal range.  If the snap is successful and the Bills properly run the sneak, the drive would have been at least a field goal.

 

- sixth drive ended on the batted int, which was part good defense and part luck.  The first drive you might say the right defensive call actually ended the drive.

 

- seventh drive was a kneel down

 

- 8th drive ended with the safety, which is debatable to whether it should have counted.  Either way it was more about the Jets line than necessarily a play call by Mosely.

 

- 9th drive ended with a field goal and that was the drive Mosely got hurt on.

 

 

6 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

If you are going to not charge him with an INT that actually happened because it was a tipped pass, then you need to charge him for the INT that was his fault but called back for a penalty.  

I did charge him for that one and the one that was dropped on the field goal drive.  He wasn't charged for the one deflected at the line or the one caused by the Beasley deflection.

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

 

Morse was the responsible one on his fumble and hard to fault Allen on the other fumble when Dawkins whiffed on his block too.  

 

Honestly, he had one bad turnover that was totally on him. 

 

And the INT that was over turned, it looked more like Allen saw the flag and knew he had a free play, so hard to say if it was a bad decision or just taking a shot on what he knew was a free play anyway.  QBs do this all the time

I didn't charge him for the Morse fumble.  The sack fumble I did absolutely charge him for because he saw it coming and didn't secure the ball well enough.  I will have to look at the so-called free play because I will erase an interception in those cases, but I didn't see that as being the case.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

 

Morse was the responsible one on his fumble and hard to fault Allen on the other fumble when Dawkins whiffed on his block too.  

 

Honestly, he had one bad turnover that was totally on him. 

 

And the INT that was over turned, it looked more like Allen saw the flag and knew he had a free play, so hard to say if it was a bad decision or just taking a shot on what he knew was a free play anyway.  QBs do this all the time

Agree on the fumble.

It's possible Allen saw the flag, and I'm not going to go back and review it. A bunch of people on the board have posted that the flag was thrown after the ball left his hand and others posted the opposite.  I really don't know.

All I know is the pick six was on Beasley, the fumble on the first drive was on Allen (and Dawkins), and the defense dropped a terrible pass that should have been intercepted near the goal line.

Allen played better than he did last year.  Completion percentage was way up.  He looked really solid at times.  We will know if he is the franchise answer by mid-season.

[Alphadawg7]

44 minutes ago, wiley16350 said:

That doesn't matter because the Jets weren't the ones stopping the Bills.  

- First drive ended on a Josh Allen fumble.  The defense created the pressure but Allen caused the fumble.  He saw it coming and should have tucked it away and take the sack.  It would have been 3rd and long but the Bills could still have completed a short pass to get in field goal range.

 

- Second drive ended on the interception caused by the Beasley deflection.  that was on 1st down and not in any way caused by the Jets.

 

- Third drive should have ended in a field goal but the Bills had a dumb unsportsmanlike penalty take them out of field goal range.

 

- Fourth drive ended with a dropped pass

 

- Fifth drive ended with the fumbled exchange and the Bills close to long field goal range.  If the snap is successful and the Bills properly run the sneak, the drive would have been at least a field goal.

 

- sixth drive ended on the batted int, which was part good defense and part luck.  The first drive you might say the right defensive call actually ended the drive.

 

- seventh drive was a kneel down

 

- 8th drive ended with the safety, which is debatable to whether it should have counted.  Either way it was more about the Jets line than necessarily a play call by Mosely.

 

- 9th drive ended with a field goal and that was the drive Mosely got hurt on.

 

 

I did charge him for that one and the one that was dropped on the field goal drive.  He wasn't charged for the one deflected at the line or the one caused by the Beasley deflection.

I didn't charge him for the Morse fumble.  The sack fumble I did absolutely charge him for because he saw it coming and didn't secure the ball well enough.  I will have to look at the so-called free play because I will erase an interception in those cases, but I didn't see that as being the case.

 

Well the free play he isn’t credited with an INT, negated by a flag

[Saxum]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

If you are going to not charge him with an INT that actually happened because it was a tipped pass, then you need to charge him for the INT that was his fault but called back for a penalty.  

 

Sure if you purpose is to take digs at Bills.

[MJS]

3 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

If you are going to not charge him with an INT that actually happened because it was a tipped pass, then you need to charge him for the INT that was his fault but called back for a penalty.  

 

Looking at plays that didn't count is just ridiculous. If anything you can look at the potential INT that was dropped, if you must.

[transplantbillsfan]

I don't think he holds primary responsiblity for any of the turnovers.

 

Purty sure I stressed all offseason that Allen was just as accurate as any good rookie in the last few years and wouldn't have a problem getting over 60% if he wasn't throwing the ball consistently farther down the field than any other QB in the NFL the way he was last year.

 

His adjusted stats? Hell, everything that went wrong in that game won't go wrong most weeks. At that point, we see those numbers pop that I was predicting he'd put up all offseason.

[GunnerBill]

Mosely's impact was not overstated. There was a reason the run game popped as soon as he went out. Not saying we wouldn't have found a way back anyway.... who knows what would have happened.... but his loss was definitely felt by the Jets. 

[Foxx]

ah yes, the shoulda/woulda/coulda world is back.

if only...

[Chandler#81]

6 minutes ago, Foxx said:

ah yes, the shoulda/woulda/coulda world is back.

if only...

and adjusting statistics for LAMP threads.

[Bring it]

All I saw was a team that did what they had to, to get the W. Offense committed basically 5 turnovers if the safety is factored in, defense was shut down. ST came through when called on. The whole team stayed poised and confident! That is the really impressive  to me given Josh Allen’s inexperience!

[wiley16350]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Mosely's impact was not overstated. There was a reason the run game popped as soon as he went out. Not saying we wouldn't have found a way back anyway.... who knows what would have happened.... but his loss was definitely felt by the Jets. 

Gore was 4 for 8 (2.0) with Mosely in and 4 for 12 (3.0) with Mosely out

 

Singletary was 1 for 20 (20.0) with Mosely in and 3 for 50 (16.6) with Mosely out.

 

Maybe Singletary was the reason the running game got better and not Mosely.

[GunnerBill]

47 minutes ago, wiley16350 said:

Gore was 4 for 8 (2.0) with Mosely in and 4 for 12 (3.0) with Mosely out

 

Singletary was 1 for 20 (20.0) with Mosely in and 3 for 50 (16.6) with Mosely out.

 

Maybe Singletary was the reason the running game got better and not Mosely.

 

It was a factor. Without question. They are already thin at linebacker and Mosely was having a hell of a game. Not saying we wouldn't have come back anyway... but it was a factor and a factor in the run game popping. 

[wiley16350]

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

and adjusting statistics for LAMP threads.

What does your post add to the conversation?  All it really says "look at me, I can make a snarky comment".  It adds nothing to the conversation.  So the irony appears lost on you that your post meets the very definition of LAMP.  Based on the likes, 7-0, people have found my original post more valuable than yours.  That seems to tell me that your post is more LAMP worthy than mine.  With that said, I will still take your comment into consideration.  If tomorrow morning, your post has more likes than my original post, I will stop sharing my adjusted statistics because then I will know that people aren't really interested.  I don't need to post here, I genuinely thought there would be people interested in them.  7 likes and over 70 downloads seem to say that people had an interest but maybe I'm just a silly person and that isn't really enough worthy interest and there are many more like you that are easily irked over something so insignificant, meaning I need to stop sharing asap.

10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It was a factor. Without question. They are already thin at linebacker and Mosely was having a hell of a game. Not saying we wouldn't have come back anyway... but it was a factor and a factor in the run game popping. 

To be fair to you, I skip over the running plays so it is possible that Gore wasn't that effective because of what Mosely was doing or calling and not for other reasons.

[Fixxxer]

5 hours ago, MJS said:

 

Looking at plays that didn't count is just ridiculous. If anything you can look at the potential INT that was dropped, if you must.

 

in terms of pure statistic purpose, sure, but Allen had a sure TD to Brown but he locked on Beasley. When he saw Beasley was covered, he double clutched and then he noticed Brown was open, throwing with only his arm (bad mechanics) the Jet defender jumped all over his pass (that he dropped)

 

Allen needs to learn from those plays as well.

 

I know people try to protect Allen from a bad statsheet but this year is also a work in progress, differente than last year, but a work in progress all the same. I have no doubts that he will get better.

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, wiley16350 said:

 

To be fair to you, I skip over the running plays so it is possible that Gore wasn't that effective because of what Mosely was doing or calling and not for other reasons.

 

Run game is rarely one thing, even more so than the pass game. And he was a factor. Gore looking like a slow old amn was another factor!

[wiley16350]

1 hour ago, Foxx said:

ah yes, the shoulda/woulda/coulda world is back.

if only...

Adjusted stats are about accurately representing what the QB did within the circumstances he faced.  I also add a stat line that combines all of the adjusted stats attributed to the QB into the NFL's passer rating to have as accurate representation of how the QB played as possible.  If you're fine with statistics that distort the truth of how well a QB played, then fine but I like to get a more accurate gauge of QB play.  I believe there are others like me that are interested in that too.

Edited September 11, 2019 by wiley16350
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