PFF really hates Josh Allen

[billsfan_34]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

 

No, I don't want to play that game. I only consider actual plays that actually happened.

But those plays actually did happen, we just got unlucky on a few and lucky on others. Just sayin’. In the end we got the W ?

Edited September 9, 2019 by billsfan_34

[mjt328]

Go back to Week 2 of 2018, when Josh Allen made the first start of his career.

Look at his pocket presence.  Look at his ability to read a defense.  Look at his mechanics.

 

Then watch his game yesterday, and judge him in those same three areas.

Anybody that doesn't notice a HUGE improvement is lying, or not paying attention.

 

Acknowledging this does NOT mean you are blind to the places he can still improve.  It's very clear that his decision-making is sometimes very poor.  There were at least two horrible throws yesterday, which Allen shouldn't have attempted.  (He also made one of these throws in Preseason).  

 

Honestly, I don't know what the Allen critics are seeing that I am not.  I also watched Mitchell Trubisky (who is in his third year) on Thursday, and people are still excusing him as a "developing" quarterback.  I watched every snap from Sam Darnold yesterday, and he was awful.  Even Baker Mayfield threw 3 picks yesterday.  But for some reason, it's the Bills QB who sucks.

 

[DuckyBoys]

19 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

He may have been given 4 turnovers but was only responsible for two.  You hit a WR in the hands and he knocks it up in the air that ain’t the QB.  When the C hikes the ball into his own thigh and you never even touch it, the fumble ain’t on the QB.

it is if you are pro football focus or some of the Allen haters on this board.  He made some mistakes yesterday but there were some great throws and he didnt crap his pants late in the game  Lets see what this Sunday brings  He hasnt started 16 games yet, its too early to crown him or write him off.

[billybob71]

and i could give 2 ***** about completion percentage and almost ints and analytics crap. so far he is  showing poise, leadership, and that he can handle adversity. thats way more important to me than analytics. there is more to the game than stats. and if he keeps on track with his development the stats are gonna come. thank goodness we no longer have a QB the coaches dont trust and QBs who cant move the offense for multiple games. 

 

 

 

Edited September 9, 2019 by billybob71

[dollars 2 donuts]

What I think is real: Josh Allen is 6-6 in 12 career starts, 6-5 in games he's started and finished, and 5-2 in his last 7 starts after coming back from injury last year.

 

What I don't: PFF's knowledge of what it takes to win actual games played on fields with blood and water filled human beings.

[Jay_Fixit]

PFF

 

 

 

Lol

[Forward Progress]

The analytics camp is most interested in proving that their method of statistical evaluation is correct.  That is the product that they sell to the market, so it is vital to the viability of their business that they consistently prove their model to be right.   

 

When you enter Josh's college stats into their model, it shows that it is statistically likely that a QB with Josh's stats will not have success at the NFL level.   Any commentary, regarding Josh's performance from the analytics community is biased, because they need to continue to promote their products and prove their model to be accurate.   In order to support their position, they will highlight every negative stat that they can from Josh's game (i.e. focus on the four turnovers and fully attribute them to Josh).

 

However, we have to admit that, as Bills' fans, we are also biased and desperately want to see the positives in our QB.  We will focus on the three scoring drives to win the game with our backs against the wall.  The truth is somewhere in between to two extreme views, but I'm happier on the positive side, so I will stay there.

 

 

 

 

Edited September 9, 2019 by Forward Progress

[Dr.Sack]

If we win I don’t care how bad or ugly Allen plays. Big Ben won a Super Bowl playing at a sub starter level. You can win in the NFL looking ugly. That said, I don’t think we can win many games turning the ball over 4 times  in one half, especially against NE or KC. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 minutes ago, Forward Progress said:

The analytics camp is most interested in proving that their method of statistical evaluation is correct.  That is the product that they sell to the market, so it is vital to the viability of their business that they consistently prove their model to be right.   

 

When you enter Josh's college stats into their model, it shows that it is statistically likely that a QB with Josh's stats will not have success at the NFL level.   Any commentary, regarding Josh's performance from the analytics community is biased, because they need to continue to promote their products and prove there model to be accurate.   In order to support their position, they will highlight every negative stat that they can from Josh's game (i.e. focus on the four turnovers and fully attribute them to Josh).

 

However, we have to admit that, as Bills' fans, we are also biased and desperately want to see the positives in our QB.  We will focus on the three scoring drives to win the game with our backs against the wall.  The truth is somewhere in between to two extreme views, but I'm happier on the positive side, so I will stay there.

 

Good post.

 

As someone who made use of statistics professionally for a couple decades, one of the things that is often missed is to look at the boundary conditions and determine whether or not they apply to a specific instance.  For example, applied to a player a big college program where the entire team is good, using a data set derived from the big college programs from which most NFL players get drafted: that's within the boundry conditions of the dataset, so the data is applicable and if the model suggests low probability of success, that may be true.  But if you have a player who attracts attention from a smaller program where the entire team is not so good - the data may not be applicable and the model may not apply.

I look at it in a simpler way: Nix made the comment about Russ Wilson before the draft, that QB with his size attributes typically don't succeed in the NFL, but that one attribute that can't be measured is a player's heart.  I think that applies to Josh Allen.

[Zerovoltz]

5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Ha.  Actually, the KC-Jags game was on my TV while I was watching a stream of the Bills-Jets, and the former was actually a miserable game to watch.

It was just a thorough ass whupping of the Jags.   As much as I dislike Jax' Thug Culture and Marrone, it was such a one-sided beatdown that you'd have to be a true KC fan to enjoy it.   @Zerovoltz must have been straining his lips smiling.

 

But the thing is, I'm just a fan, not a football guru.  If I wanted to make a profession of and be taken seriously as the latter, I'd watch the game before I flapped my mouth

 

 

Oh-ho you mean, like ESPN? (QBR)

 

Come on Hapless, Chiefs games are pretty exciting...you know Mahomes is going to put on an incredible performance....and our D isn't elite so the other team always has at least a chance.      

 

***I ONLY READ THE THREAD TITLE***  ....I love metrics, but I don't really like PFF that much....not because of what they think of Allen, but there have been plenty of players and performances they've ranked with their system that make me scratch my head too often for me to put too much into what they say, postitive or negative.  

 

If you asked me what I thought of Allen.....nothing I saw in the game yestarday changed my mind one way or another...I feel like the Jets are a mixed bag of meh so I don't know if I watched Allen against a bad team, a good team, or a if that was a weird game.  

 

The game winning touchdown pass......to be honest, I think he badly underthrew that, and Brown, who was looking for the ball, was able to adjust and make a play on it...while the defender never saw that it was thrown short.  I know that in the NFL, there are plays and QB's who do back shoulder throws on purpose on that sort of play, and if you folks here want to tell me that's what happend, then fine...I won't argue it...but to me it looked like a bad throw that was made good by Brown.

 

Either way, Allen threw it, he caught it...it won the game...it's an important development if Allen is going to take a step forward..the team can beleive they CAN come back with him leading the way...that's more important than the semantics of if the pass was bad or not....of how his overall day was.....

 

I'm not going to take this game and make any real judgements here...I need to see alot more snaps/game action before I come to a conclusion.

[Forward Progress]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Good post.

 

As someone who made use of statistics professionally for a couple decades, one of the things that is often missed is to look at the boundary conditions and determine whether or not they apply to a specific instance.  For example, applied to a player a big college program where the entire team is good, using a data set derived from the big college programs from which most NFL players get drafted: that's within the boundry conditions of the dataset, so the data is applicable and if the model suggests low probability of success, that may be true.  But if you have a player who attracts attention from a smaller program where the entire team is not so good - the data may not be applicable and the model may not apply.

I look at it in a simpler way: Nix made the comment about Russ Wilson before the draft, that QB with his size attributes typically don't succeed in the NFL, but that one attribute that can't be measured is a player's heart.  I think that applies to Josh Allen.

 

I completely agree.  When determining the future success of an NFL QB, there are so many intangibles that do not appear on a stat sheet. 

 

I really appreciate how much effort Beane’s team puts into player evaluations that go well beyond the analytics guys. Josh is a leader of men, with a large capacity to learn and an unbreakable competitive spirit.  These traits will help Josh become the QB he that he will be one day.  His floor is already much higher than we anticipated and the ceiling is very high. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

21 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

Come on Hapless, Chiefs games are pretty exciting...you know Mahomes is going to put on an incredible performance....and our D isn't elite so the other team always has at least a chance.      

 

Haha if I were a Chief's fan, I'm sure I'd relish it, but that bad of a beatdown becomes pretty dull unless you're a fan of the winner.

 

21 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

The game winning touchdown pass......to be honest, I think he badly underthrew that, and Brown, who was looking for the ball, was able to adjust and make a play on it...while the defender never saw that it was thrown short.  I know that in the NFL, there are plays and QB's who do back shoulder throws on purpose on that sort of play, and if you folks here want to tell me that's what happend, then fine...I won't argue it...but to me it looked like a bad throw that was made good by Brown.

FWIW, Brown says he wasn't able to get open the way the play was designed, so Allen took a shot on a different throw and trusted Brown to adjust.  Brown says it was a perfect throw for the coverage: (TBN, may be a paywall, free trial available):

 

Brown didn’t get open the way the route was designed on the touchdown pass with 3:00 left. It was a stutter-step-and-go route down the left sideline.

“It was just a double move, and the defensive guy had great position on the ball,” Brown said of Jets cornerback Darryl Roberts. “It was supposed to be thrown over the top, but the guy took the top off of it.”

 

Recognizing the need to adjust, Allen showed trust in Brown to stop his route short and make a play. Allen threw it as if it was a back-shoulder play, and Brown caught the ball in front of Roberts, who couldn’t change direction in time.  “The guy had great coverage, and Josh was able to see it,” Brown said. “That takes a lot of trust. The guy had great coverage, and I was just able to come back to the ball. … Josh just made a perfect throw.”

 

(.....)  Give an unsung credit on the play to center Mitch Morse. He held off Jets star defensive tackle Leonard Williams with a lunging block just long enough for Allen to make the throw before Williams hit him.

 

[BillsFan692]

6 hours ago, Logic said:

Overall, I agree with you about PFF and their illogical hatred of Josh Allen.

It's only fair to note, however, that this article pertains to fantasy football. I wouldn't start Allen just yet in fantasy, either, based on yesterday's game.

Except he was on fire yesterday on Draft King and he got 20 pts which isnt the best but it could be worse....

 

Imagine if you picked a QB like Baker Mayfieldnfor fantasy on Sunday...

 

Yikes. I bet he came highly recommended from PFF hahaha

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

6 hours ago, PirateHookerMD said:

https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-what-we-learned-week-1-2019

 

No comment on Singletary or the Defense, just hate on Josh Allen in both segments. 

 

Buffalo

What I think is real: Bad Josh Allen. He had two interceptions, two lost fumbles, and more mistakes that the Jets couldn’t capitalize on. He’s just not very good. … John Brown did what most of us thought Brown would do, scoring a long touchdown and leading the team in targets. He’ll be hit and miss, but the hits will be good.

What I don’t: Good Josh Allen. In the fourth quarter, he led two scoring drives to ultimately win the game, rushing for one touchdown and connecting with Brown on the game-winning score. But there is just too much that is a mess about his game right now.

4 turnovers......that is real

6 hours ago, VADC Bills said:

What bothers me about Josh Allen is that there is a Jay Cutler-ness about his game that I don't like. He needs good coaching.

Throws so much like him. He is "Cutler" that can run and cares about winning.

[The Wiz]

3 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

OR they're calling it like they see it.  4 turnovers is 4 turnovers.  There were a couple more that could have bounced the wrong way as well.

 

Josh does a lot of good things, but the bad is there for everyone to see.  Bills fans tend to take the "glass half full" approach, is all.  Fortunately for Josh, he redeemed himself in the 4th quarter. 

 

PFF is not wrong.

So what are they saying about Baker then?  

[Capco]

It's an article written in the context of fantasy football leagues.  Of course Josh didn't perform stellar on the stat sheet.  But he most certainly helped us get a W, and in the real world the W is the only thing that matters, not the stats.

 

This thread shouldn't be 5 pages long lol.  

[YoloinOhio]

Or not 

 

 

[GoBills808]

Pretty sure he outscored half the league in FF, and w/out some of the sack fumbles or fluke INTs he's pushing top10 territory...

[CincyBillsFan]

23 hours ago, Forward Progress said:

The analytics camp is most interested in proving that their method of statistical evaluation is correct.  That is the product that they sell to the market, so it is vital to the viability of their business that they consistently prove their model to be right.   

 

When you enter Josh's college stats into their model, it shows that it is statistically likely that a QB with Josh's stats will not have success at the NFL level.   Any commentary, regarding Josh's performance from the analytics community is biased, because they need to continue to promote their products and prove their model to be accurate.   In order to support their position, they will highlight every negative stat that they can from Josh's game (i.e. focus on the four turnovers and fully attribute them to Josh).

 

However, we have to admit that, as Bills' fans, we are also biased and desperately want to see the positives in our QB.  We will focus on the three scoring drives to win the game with our backs against the wall.  The truth is somewhere in between to two extreme views, but I'm happier on the positive side, so I will stay there.

 

 

 

 

 

This is exactly right.  I also think the analytics folks grossly overrate the predictive nature of their modeling.  The level of variability inherent in EVERY NFL pass play requires a HUGE sample size of plays to have any chance of the model being accurate.  This means that the analytics would expect to do poorly in evaluating QB's with less then 5 years of playing experience.

 

The other thing I would add is while the "truth" of Allen is somewhere between the two extremes it's a lot closer to what we fans see then what the analytics guys see.  Bills fans (at least the real ones) want Allen to succeed so they will engage in some level of confirmation bias.  I know I do.  However, the reality is that QB's entering their 2nd year in the NFL are almost ALWAYS a work in progress.  They will make mistakes and bone headed plays.  This is a given and especially true where a team like the Bills was rebuilding it's offense at the SAME time they brought in Allen.  No one can dispute that Mahomes & Jackson walked into much better situations then Allen, Rosen, Darnold and even Mayfielde did.

 

So we fans look for the positive.  We expect negative stuff to happen.  You can call it "confirmation bias" but we see 3 great throws followed by a bad throw as overall being good for a 2nd year guy in a way we wouldn't for a 7 year vet.  We fans also look for evidence that a young QB is IMPROVING and with Allen it's indisputable that he is. We fans also look at the intangibles (try mathematically modeling them) like leadership, competitiveness & the ability to learn.  Again Allen shows out very good here.

 

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

..who really gives a rat's azz about some urinalist typing away from under the confines of his desk?....better to follow ex-players who offer critical analyses, both for and against.....after critical analyses, Allen favorables are Simms, Dilfer, Palmer and now QB Coach Dorsey....Baldy is another good one and MRob likes the Bills......Terrell Davis hates the Bills and is a constant knock......these guys are not afraid to give you a substantive analysis, albeit positive or negative and conclude their net assessment.....a urinalist?...seriously?.....post week 1 rankings range form 17 to 22.....which I think is about right for all of the offensive newness...

Edited September 10, 2019 by OldTimeAFLGuy