First Half wasn't as awful as everyone is saying

[BillsFan4]

5 hours ago, mjt328 said:

 

In review of yesterday's game, I keep reading how terrible and ineffective the Bills offense was until the 4th Quarter.  I completely disagree.

Were they mistake prone and sloppy at times?  Absolutely.

But when you really break it down, the offense was consistently putting together strong drives for a good chunk of the day.

 

On the day, the Bills had the ball a total of 12 times. 

- One possession was the kneel down at the half. 

- One possession was running out the clock at the end of the game.

- Then you have the Cole Beasley bounce (pretty much a fluke), which was returned for a touchdown.  This drive was one play.

- Then you have the safety (bad call by the refs), which also lasted one play.

 

That leaves 8 true possessions for the Bills offense.

1.  Drive #1 (7 plays, 37 yards):  They easily marched down the field to the Jets 26 yard line.  Then Dion Dawkins missed a block, resulting in the sack/strip.

2.  Drive #3 (9 plays, 35 yards):  Another drive into scoring position, until the Unsportsmanlike Conduct penalty on Jon Feliciano.

3.  Drive #4 (3 plays, 7 yards):  This was a really bad series, which also included the INT that was overturned by penalty.

4.  Drive #5 (9 plays, 58 yards):  Yet another very strong drive, ended by the botched snap on the QB sneak.

5.  Drive #6 (5 plays, 30 yards):  The offense was starting to move again.  Then we have the tipped pass, which was also intercepted.

6.  Drive #9 (9 plays, 50 yards):  Ended in our first 3 points of the day.

7.  Drive #10 (8 plays, 85 yards):  Touchdown

8.  Drive #11 (8 plays, 80 yards):  Touchdown

 

 

Bottom line... On a snap-by-snap basis, I felt like the Bills controlled the game on both sides.  Defense was outstanding all day.  The offense had some really bad bounces and bad luck.  They had some really bad mistakes at the wrong time.  The narrative is that something "woke the offense up" during the 4th quarter.  In reality, I think we just figured out how to finish our drives.

 

 

Perfect breakdown! Great job. 

 

Im getting aggravated reading so many of these national media articles about the Bills vs. Jets game. Bills are hardly getting any love. It’s all about how the Jets were winning all game and then choked it away, or how the only reason the Bills won is because CJ Mosley left the game, or their FG kicker sucks.... and all I can think is “it is so obvious that very few of the people writing these articles actually Watched the Bills vs. Jets game”. 

[ctk232]

7 hours ago, mjt328 said:

 

In review of yesterday's game, I keep reading how terrible and ineffective the Bills offense was until the 4th Quarter.  I completely disagree.

Were they mistake prone and sloppy at times?  Absolutely.

But when you really break it down, the offense was consistently putting together strong drives for a good chunk of the day.

 

[...] the rest of this was spectacular but only avoiding wall quotes here.

 

Thanks for writing this up! Seriously - I was watching this game remotely attached to my good friend from undergrad (who is a Jets fan) and we were going back and forth with other friends casually watching among the other games. There was a lot of armchair analysis thrown around after the pick six, and safety, lamenting that the missed kicks were the real factor in deciding this game and that the Jets should have easily won. While I don't disagree the lack of capitalizing on four turnovers likely impacted the outcome of this game - I don't agree with that narrative in the least. 

 

What I actually saw, and saw again rewatching last night, was an incredibly solid and controlled first drive where the defense literally had no answers. Every other play Tremaine Johnson (Jets DB) would have his arms up after Allen audibled out of those initial run looks. Breaking it down, drive by drive, there were certainly misses and mistakes that a well-practiced and experienced team doesn't make, and obviously a few bounces that were more fortuitous by circumstance than opportunistic by initiative (a la the luck what i found pick six). I will note the one INT and missed INT by Maye would have turned the tides of the game, and these were the aspects where Josh needs to grow more. Funny enough, these weren't exactly issues with his accuracy so much as they were his decision making - his missed throw to Knox over the middle on a crossing route in the second quarter(?) was more evident of any accuracy issues.

 

To me, Allen still has refinement and development to see through, which was well-established during TC and before this season ever started. But between his first games last season to yesterday, there was tremendous growth in commanding a consistent drive from our own territory to the opponents red zone, and doing it from the pocket. How many times have we watched drives start from our own 25 or less and actually reach the other half of the 50? Yesterday, it almost seemed like everytime we got the ball, it would be a miraculous turnover, or a solid convincing drive down into the opponent's red zone. Even in spite of the turnover debacle, yesterday's offense left me more hopeful about our passing attack with Allen than what we saw last year. Bet anything if this happens to Brady or another favored team, the narrative would be they held on despite the ball not bouncing their way and controlled a game mostly out of their control...

 

The other half to this narrative - the defense. This wasn't just the Jets having bad luck with kicking...four turnovers and how many offensive conversions to points were seen? None. That should scream a top 5 defense to everyone, but this went unmentioned by most hot takes and media threads. Defensive stats in relation to Darnold yesterday: five passes blocked at the line, eight QB hits (with even more pressures), and most importantly? 4.3 yards per attempt. 4.3??? Are you kidding me? Granted, I'd have to check the Jets boards (ew), but at least no major outlets seem to be talking about Sammy's awful day, just Josh's turnovers. The defense is the reason we won yesterday, and even had a chance entering the fourth quarter. No matter the score, these guys came out every drive and found a way to contain arguably the best back in the league, and stifled the entire passing game of the Jets beyond 5-10 yards. That effort was unbelievable to see for a solid four quarters. 

Edited September 9, 2019 by ctk232

[Bray Wyatt]

I think people are mis-interpreting the OP in some ways, he isnt saying we played good in the first half, just that it was not as bad as many would think if you just checked the box score and saw the turnovers, and with that I agree. 

[NickelCity]

I've re-watched the game a few times now. A lot to like about our offense (ducks for cover). Clean up dumb mistakes and we win in a blowout. Also as a fence sitter on Allen, this game did a lot to make me a fan. If you didn't watch the game, you'd think I was crazy. 

Edited September 9, 2019 by NickelCity

[Mikey152]

1 hour ago, Reed83HOF said:

He wasn't wide open, the secondary coverage was already converging on him, Knox however was open on the level below Brown. Brown was only "wide-open" in between the Hash-marks and slightly after he crossed them on the RT side. 

 

Because he reached the boundary and had to stop running...but when Josh let go of the ball, he was still open, he was just standing still 30+ yards away so it was going to take a strong throw to get there before the coverage did.  Allen didn't get enough on it because he was on the move.

 

You're right, though...he might have been able to hit Knox on the sideline, but I think he was only open because the corner who had that zone dropped back to try and play the pass...it would have been similar to the pass he ended up throwing aside from the fact that Know still had a little room to run.

 

But I am done splitting hairs over it.  It was a risky throw due to the pressure, but Brown WAS open on the play and Allen was accurate...the timing was just off.  So while it was close to being a pick, it was also close to being a TD.

 

 

[SloanBillsFan]

5 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

I have been shouting this on twitter.  It is crazy how people can become so emotionally invested in a game that they lose all sense of what is really happening. The turnovers, in some peoples minds, completely erased how well we were moving the ball.  The offense was great all game. 

THANK YOU! Sully started the "Fire Daboll?" thread and I just about lost it when I read a few tweets under it. My God, it's like no QB ever suffered a strip sack or ever had just purely bad luck during a game. 

 

You're absolutely right that some of these people are judging Allen on every throw. And this is just the first game. SMH

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

Just now, SloanBillsFan said:

THANK YOU! Sully started the "Fire Daboll?" thread and I just about lost it when I read a few tweets under it. My God, it's like no QB ever suffered a strip sack or ever had just purely bad luck during a game. 

 

You're absolutely right that some of these people are judging Allen on every throw. And this is just the first game. SMH

Daboll sucks for *checks notes* not telling Allen to not fumble the ball on a sack. 

[RevWarRifleman]

Well done MJT, thanks for the research and a more objective view.

[CLTbills]

6 hours ago, mjt328 said:

 

In review of yesterday's game, I keep reading how terrible and ineffective the Bills offense was until the 4th Quarter.  I completely disagree.

Were they mistake prone and sloppy at times?  Absolutely.

But when you really break it down, the offense was consistently putting together strong drives for a good chunk of the day.

 

On the day, the Bills had the ball a total of 12 times. 

- One possession was the kneel down at the half. 

- One possession was running out the clock at the end of the game.

- Then you have the Cole Beasley bounce (pretty much a fluke), which was returned for a touchdown.  This drive was one play.

- Then you have the safety (bad call by the refs), which also lasted one play.

 

That leaves 8 true possessions for the Bills offense.

1.  Drive #1 (7 plays, 37 yards):  They easily marched down the field to the Jets 26 yard line.  Then Dion Dawkins missed a block, resulting in the sack/strip.

2.  Drive #3 (9 plays, 35 yards):  Another drive into scoring position, until the Unsportsmanlike Conduct penalty on Jon Feliciano.

3.  Drive #4 (3 plays, 7 yards):  This was a really bad series, which also included the INT that was overturned by penalty.

4.  Drive #5 (9 plays, 58 yards):  Yet another very strong drive, ended by the botched snap on the QB sneak.

5.  Drive #6 (5 plays, 30 yards):  The offense was starting to move again.  Then we have the tipped pass, which was also intercepted.

6.  Drive #9 (9 plays, 50 yards):  Ended in our first 3 points of the day.

7.  Drive #10 (8 plays, 85 yards):  Touchdown

8.  Drive #11 (8 plays, 80 yards):  Touchdown

 

 

Bottom line... On a snap-by-snap basis, I felt like the Bills controlled the game on both sides.  Defense was outstanding all day.  The offense had some really bad bounces and bad luck.  They had some really bad mistakes at the wrong time.  The narrative is that something "woke the offense up" during the 4th quarter.  In reality, I think we just figured out how to finish our drives.

 

Great post, man. I wasn’t able to watch the game live because I’m on vacation in Disney World, but I was listening to Murph on the radio broadcast and that’s the vibe I was getting. I was very encouraged that we seemed to be able to move the ball up and down the field at will against the Jets, but just weren’t able to finish drives.

 

I even posted in the “predictions” thread earlier in the week that the Bills would win in a game that wasn’t as close as the score. That they would move the ball but struggle to finish drives while the offense (basically only 2-3 returning starters) gels. I got the score wrong because I wasn’t planning on them turning the ball over like that. But you’re absolutely right. The fact that we were basically able to do whatever we wanted to with regard to moving the ball is VERY encouraging. 

 

EDIT: I went back and found it - “

Bills 27, Jests 13, in a game that isn't as close as the score. Bills will dominate, but struggle to finish a couple drives as the offense still tries to gel.”

Edited September 9, 2019 by CLTbills

[mannc]

5 hours ago, Jobot said:

 

I mean it's the reality of the game.  We came in with an unnecessarily risky game plan that nearly cost us the game against a weaker opponent.  You can't tell me that by the end of the 3rd quarter you didn't think... 'damn, I wish we just established the run and let the defenses battle this game out'.  To me, that strategy would have yielded a comfortable and controlled win for the Bills.

.Not saying I didn't question the early play-calling, although the Bills did move the ball well, my point is that the difference in the game was not the Jests' kicker.  The missed PAT was irrelevant given the later two-pointer they converted, and of course the Bills chose to run out the clock instead of trying to score after they took over on down in the last two minutes of the game.  

Edited September 9, 2019 by mannc

[Shaw66]

29 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

 

But I am done splitting hairs over it.  It was a risky throw due to the pressure, but Brown WAS open on the play and Allen was accurate...the timing was just off.  So while it was close to being a pick, it was also close to being a TD.

 

 

Late to this party, but when the ball hits the defender in the hands, and it was a defender who was in clear view as Allen was processing whether to throw, that is a bad throw.  Accurate, I suppose, but a bad decision and a bad throw.  But, as I keep saying, you have to throw some of those to learn not to throw them.  If he never tries to fit it in there, he never learns which throws he can' make and which he can't.  

[Reed83HOF]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

Late to this party, but when the ball hits the defender in the hands, and it was a defender who was in clear view as Allen was processing whether to throw, that is a bad throw.  Accurate, I suppose, but a bad decision and a bad throw.  But, as I keep saying, you have to throw some of those to learn not to throw them.  If he never tries to fit it in there, he never learns which throws he can' make and which he can't.  

 

Here's the play

[Mikey152]

6 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Late to this party, but when the ball hits the defender in the hands, and it was a defender who was in clear view as Allen was processing whether to throw, that is a bad throw.  Accurate, I suppose, but a bad decision and a bad throw.  But, as I keep saying, you have to throw some of those to learn not to throw them.  If he never tries to fit it in there, he never learns which throws he can' make and which he can't.  

 

That safety had a lot of ground to cover when Allen let go of that football.

3 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

Here's the play

And....Brown is open.  But Josh didn't get enough on it.  Not only did he not set his feet, but it didn't come out of his hand great.  Also, looking at this graphic he probably had more room than I thought towards the pylon

Edited September 9, 2019 by Mikey152

[RobbRiddick]

I said in the game thread, I really liked seeing Allen getting up to the line early and then changing the play and seeing the shifting. Actually looked like something approaching a sophisticated offense. 

[Shaw66]

17 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

 

That safety had a lot of ground to cover when Allen let go of that football.

And....Brown is open.  But Josh didn't get enough on it.  Not only did he not set his feet, but it didn't come out of his hand great.  Also, looking at this graphic he probably had more room than I thought towards the pylon

If you're saying he was open and a different throw by Josh would have gotten there, then it's still all on Josh - a learning experience.   He has to learn if he can actually make that different throw.  If he can't make it from there, he cannot throw it.   If he CAN make that throw, then he has to make the throw.   What he did was a bad decision or a bad throw.  Either way, it was a bad play (that he has to make in order to learn what he can do and what he can't).

[oldmanfan]

Just watching the replay now and on that almost pick Allen was signaling the penalty as soon as the play was done.  Is it possible he saw the hold and took a chance knowing it was a free shot?

[1ManRaid]

When Rich Cirimi went on Twitter to boast about how much of an impact Mosley was and how the Bills O only got good after he left the game, I looked up Bills O plays from the first half.  Tweeted to him that just in the first half (WITH MOSLEY IN THE GAME), we still had 12 plays of 8+ yards and 3 plays of 25+ yards despite having to play around all those fluke turnovers/bad call safety/drive ending penalty that Mosley wasn't responsible for.

 

Holding my breath on his response.

[SloanBillsFan]

2 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

You know what's interesting everyone?

 

I keep hearing 4 Turnovers by JA = Sucks, terrible Josh, bad Josh, etc.

 

Just a quick cursory look at Tom Brady's career and his # of 4 INT games is approaching double figures, and this doesn't include fumbles!

 

The Bills haven't been and won't be turning it over 4x a game. Does that sound like something McD would accept?

Was thinking of a similar comparison but didn't have the numbers. Nice job! 

[YattaOkasan]

I actually think it was pretty important to the defense that the offense could move the ball before the turnovers happened.  Because we got first downs on a lot of the drives (only 1 3 and out) we were able to not give up terrible field position (only one NYJ drive started in Bills territory) and the defense actually got to rest a little. 

 

I remain cautiously optimistic this offense could be good.  Obviously this defense is good borderline great.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

7 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

It's proof of their irrational dislike of Allen.  Who else DWELLS on those kind of coulda/woulda/shoulda plays?  Remember the incomplete dump of pass that Darnold threw when under pressure that hit a Bills LB in the back?  That could have been a pick 6.  Watch ANY NFL game and you'll have a couple of those kind of passes by EVERY QB out there. 

 

These tools are evaluating Allen on EVERY pass he throws.  It's crazy. 

 

 

Many of these "evaluators" perhaps are stuck on the reports that came out prior to the draft that Allen had some accuracy issues.  Get over it; guys with tools improve with coaching and experience.  If the Dodgers had bought in to what everyone was saying about Sandy Koufax's wildness his first few years, they would have dumped a guy who became perhaps the greatest lefty in MLB history.  Johnny Unitas had already been cut when the Colts signed him.  Hasek was dumped by the Red Wings because they felt they could do better.  Etc. etc. etc.

Edited September 9, 2019 by Formerly Allan in MD