Examining Allen Expectations

[SoTier]

56 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I suppose this is a good a place as any, and by asking I'm probably going through with it anyway, but would people be interested in a comparison of stats for all of the second seasons on these QBs? I've already run and posted the rookie season stats for all QBs with significant play time since 2011 previously. I guess it could be interesting to track...

 

31 rookies qualified. I suppose I could include mahomes even though he didn't qualify as a rookie. 

 

I was thinking of doing that myself.  I think this article would have been more useful if the author had gone further and separated out the successful QBs -- Trubisky, Watson, Goff, Wentz, Luck, Newton, and Ryan -- from the mediocre ones and compared their average stats.  I'm not interested in what the likes of Blaine Gabbert or Mark Sanchez did in their second seasons because they were busts.  Maybe the average stats for the best QBs aren't significantly better than those for the mediocre group (which would probably tell us, we still have to wait to decide how good Allen is) but I would think that they would be better, especially for QBs who were somewhat raw like Goff, Wentz or Newton.

[BullBuchanan]

5 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Bet you loved Trubisky's scintillating 60%+ passing night last night. Because, you know, completion percentage is EVERYTHING.

 

Were we having a different conversation that I wasn't aware of?

[ddaryl]

I'm expecting JA to pass for aboot 3500 yds with about a 58% completion rate, Ay!

 

I expect him to run less and throw the ball away a little more, but he I still a definite dual threat.

Edited September 6, 2019 by ddaryl

[HeHateMe]

3500 yards passing, 23-25 passing TDs, 6-8 rushing TDs, 600 yards rushing.  Would be a great year 2.

 

 

Edited September 6, 2019 by HeHateMe

[BuffaloHokie13]

23 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

I was thinking of doing that myself.  I think this article would have been more useful if the author had gone further and separated out the successful QBs -- Trubisky, Watson, Goff, Wentz, Luck, Newton, and Ryan -- from the mediocre ones and compared their average stats.  I'm not interested in what the likes of Blaine Gabbert or Mark Sanchez did in their second seasons because they were busts.  Maybe the average stats for the best QBs aren't significantly better than those for the mediocre group (which would probably tell us, we still have to wait to decide how good Allen is) but I would think that they would be better, especially for QBs who were somewhat raw like Goff, Wentz or Newton.

I see what you're getting at. I can present it 2 ways, 1 where I just rank the sophomore years against each other, and another where we show the stats from each year for the accepted successes. 

[Mat68]

Completion % to me is really not that overwhelmingly important.  2 to 1 Td to interception.  24 to 12.  Showing the ability to win from the pocket more consistently.  I'm very bullish on Allen.  I think he has it.  If he reaches his potential Buffalo will be a scary team.  

[oldmanfan]

50 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Congrats you've won a lifetime supply of 'atta boys!

I think 58% is a also a realistic sign of strong progress. Unless he turns into a drastically different kind of player somehow, I expect him to be in the bottom 10 of the league throughout his career, and that's ok as long as he learns to hit on the plays that matter.

I’ve gone through the math before and will do so again here.  Let’s say Allen throws 30 passes in a game.  A 52% rate is 15.4 catches and a 60% is 18 catches.  So 2-3 incompletions have to turn into completions.

 

Now does that reallly seem that impossible?  Really?  Just getting rid of Benjamin and his drops get you close probably.  Not having to throw one ball away with a better O line vs. running for your life gets you there.  Having Beasley running his routes gets you there.

 

It is so tiresome to keep reading about how he’ll never be accurate as accuracy has little to do with completion percentage.  It is so tiresome to keep reading that he has never done that in high school and college since it says nothing about the style of offense he ran or that his high school career has a tinker’s damn worth of relevance to the NFL.

 

I am not transfixed on what his numbers will be or not be this year.   In a second year QB I want to see the game slow down.  I want to see his decision making evolve, see him go through progressions quicker, go to his safety valve and take the easier throw more.  If he does that his numbers will look better.  Putting some artificial limit on what we have to see is meaningless.  

[K-9]

3 hours ago, MDH said:

 

I'd be happy with Trubisky like numbers from last year. People are looking at one game to start the season and using that as proof that Trubisky sucks. He was horrible last night, it happens. Josh will be horrible in some games this year too, it doens't mean he isn't and can't be a good QB.

People need to reconcile this simple fact. He will have completely crappy games. But some people won’t even allow him to throw one lousy pass without analyzing the F out of it, so there is no hope for them to accept a bad game here and there. 

 

The true measure is how dies Allen respond to those bad plays, bad series, and bad games. It’s all about getting up off the mat. Personally, I think Josh Allen is just fine in that regard.

[BullBuchanan]

8 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I’ve gone through the math before and will do so again here.  Let’s say Allen throws 30 passes in a game.  A 52% rate is 15.4 catches and a 60% is 18 catches.  So 2-3 incompletions have to turn into completions.

 

Now does that reallly seem that impossible?  Really?  Just getting rid of Benjamin and his drops get you close probably.  Not having to throw one ball away with a better O line vs. running for your life gets you there.  Having Beasley running his routes gets you there.

 

It is so tiresome to keep reading about how he’ll never be accurate as accuracy has little to do with completion percentage.  It is so tiresome to keep reading that he has never done that in high school and college since it says nothing about the style of offense he ran or that his high school career has a tinker’s damn worth of relevance to the NFL.

 

I am not transfixed on what his numbers will be or not be this year.   In a second year QB I want to see the game slow down.  I want to see his decision making evolve, see him go through progressions quicker, go to his safety valve and take the easier throw more.  If he does that his numbers will look better.  Putting some artificial limit on what we have to see is meaningless.  

It's completely understandable for you to see that it's totally realistic for that to happen. i mean, after all, like you said, it's only 2-3 catches a game right? However, it just doesn't happen. The things that make a guy miss those 2-3 completions are extremely hard to fix once they're in the pros. When we drafted him, I hated the pick because of it and did a ton of research comparing college completion percentages to pro career numbers. For franchise-type guys or even guys like Dalton and Tannehill etc they remain shockingly close their college numbers on average and RARELY see a jump of more than 3%. Favre and Moon did, but their numbers were in the 40s, and there's a couple other outliers. 

Overwhelmingly, though, guys don't go from mid to low 50's in college to 60's in the pros. It doesn't mean he can't or won't be successful. It just means it's highly unlikely his percentage goes above 60.

Edited September 6, 2019 by BullBuchanan

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

..like to see him build his confidence by playing within himself (doesn't have to put team solely on his shoulders EVERY week), letting the game come to him as Daboll calls it....as he grows, Daboll can get more creative and innovative IMO.......the numbers and "W's" will follow.............

[Warcodered]

3 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

It's completely understandable for you to see that it's totally realistic for that to happen. i mean, after all, like you said, it's only 2-3 catches a game right? However, it just doesn't happen. The things that make a guy miss those 2-3 completions are extremely hard to fix once they're in the pros. When we drafted him, I hated the pick because of it and did a ton of research comparing college completion percentages to pro career numbers. For franchise-type guys or even guys like Dalton and Tannehill etc they remain shockingly close their college numbers on average and RARELY see a jump of more than 3%. Favre and Moon did, but their numbers were in the 40s, and there's a couple other outliers. 

Overwhelmingly, though, guys don't go from mid to low 50's in college to 60's in the pros. It doesn't mean he can't or won't be successful. It just means it's highly unlikely his percentage goes above 60.

Right but the problem with your data might be how many of those situations had a guy go from a crappy OL and WR core in college to a crappy OL and WR in the NFL and then in the next year have the OL and WR core completely overhauled. Completion percentage is one number that takes nothing else into account. You could be an incredible QB playing with a WR group that literally has no hands just stubs and completion percentage will say that you're a ***** QB, it only takes one thing into consideration.

[oldmanfan]

13 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

It's completely understandable for you to see that it's totally realistic for that to happen. i mean, after all, like you said, it's only 2-3 catches a game right? However, it just doesn't happen. The things that make a guy miss those 2-3 completions are extremely hard to fix once they're in the pros. When we drafted him, I hated the pick because of it and did a ton of research comparing college completion percentages to pro career numbers. For franchise-type guys or even guys like Dalton and Tannehill etc they remain shockingly close their college numbers on average and RARELY see a jump of more than 3%. Favre and Moon did, but their numbers were in the 40s, and there's a couple other outliers. 

Overwhelmingly, though, guys don't go from mid to low 50's in college to 60's in the pros. It doesn't mean he can't or won't be successful. It just means it's highly unlikely his percentage goes above 60.

I think Beasley alone gets him there presuming he uses him, as he did in preseason.

16 minutes ago, K-9 said:

People need to reconcile this simple fact. He will have completely crappy games. But some people won’t even allow him to throw one lousy pass without analyzing the F out of it, so there is no hope for them to accept a bad game here and there. 

 

The true measure is how dies Allen respond to those bad plays, bad series, and bad games. It’s all about getting up off the mat. Personally, I think Josh Allen is just fine in that regard.

All young QBs do.  I am trying to figure out when the idea of a young QB learning was replaced by having a young QB having to be what he’ll be within a year or two.

 

The only rookie QB I can remember ever walking in and being really, really good was Marino.  The list of guys that would be discarded today is crazy.  Guys like Bradshaw,  Aikman, Young, Brees and so on.

[MJS]

8 hours ago, Dopey said:

I'll be happy with:

3200 yds passing

24 Passing TD's

12 INT's

No more than 250 YD's rushing(a little over 15 YD's per game)

5   Rushing TD's 

58% completion

AND...PLAYOFFS!!!

 

So if he has all of that except he also has 750 yards rushing (46 yards per game), will you be disappointed?

[BullBuchanan]

18 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Right but the problem with your data might be how many of those situations had a guy go from a crappy OL and WR core in college to a crappy OL and WR in the NFL and then in the next year have the OL and WR core completely overhauled. Completion percentage is one number that takes nothing else into account. You could be an incredible QB playing with a WR group that literally has no hands just stubs and completion percentage will say that you're a ***** QB, it only takes one thing into consideration.

 

Absolutely could happen and that could be the reason or a host of other factors. All I'm doing is using the data that rarely shows deviation. I really, really , really hope it's one of those times, because he's our QB and if we cant win with him, we're unlikely to win for a very long time.

[DuckyBoys]

I believe the Bills will pass much more than last year and more on early downs.  With more volume and improvement both from Josh himself as well as the O line and supporting cast I would be happy with 3800 yds passing 500 yds rushing and 30 total tds with 15 or less ints  He does that Bills are a 10+ win team

[clearwater cadet]

5 hours ago, MDH said:

 

I'd be happy with Trubisky like numbers from last year. People are looking at one game to start the season and using that as proof that Trubisky sucks. He was horrible last night, it happens. Josh will be horrible in some games this year too, it doens't mean he isn't and can't be a good QB.

I know, but right now I just need some hope.  A bad outing this soon would crush me.

[Guest K-GunJimKelly12]

I'm exited.  I'm an Allen believer.  I find it funny how long pre-draft ranking and opinions stick with guys after they make it to the NFL, both good and bad.  Sometimes it takes forever to make people believe and sometimes guys get way too long of a rope.  What I saw last year from Allen despite his faults, was his ability to take over games.  I realize Miami wasn't a great team last year but watching him in the 4th quarter of that game on the road, with what we had around him, just from the eye test, this guy has superstar written all over him.  There were other stretches in games where he took over.  I expect it to happen frequently this season.  

 

The completion percentage is overblown .  Josh Allen is going to make a lot of big plays in the NFL and by the end of this season, the league will have taken notice.  I remember watching Baker in his Junior and senior year and thinking this guy is going to be great.  Please go back and look at the Baker threads his senior year and tell me who was talking him up while a large majority was saying he wouldn't even make it in the league.  I'm telling you, Josh Allen has it.  He is going to be a superstar. 

 

Time to sit back and enjoy the ride boys.  After the last 20 years we have earned it.  Go Bills!

 

 

 

Edited September 6, 2019 by K-GunJimKelly12

[Awwufelloff]

Would be really surprised if above 60% completion rate. 

 

A good year for me 3500 yards passing, 500 yards rushing. 25 TD 12 INT

 

What I expect: 2800 yards passing, 350 yards rushing. 18 TD 14 INT 

Edited September 6, 2019 by Awwufelloff

[Don Otreply]

I just want to see our O line do it’s job correctly, and receivers catching passes, the above means the running game is working. If this happens the end result is what we all want.

 

Go Bills!!!

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I see what you're getting at. I can present it 2 ways, 1 where I just rank the sophomore years against each other, and another where we show the stats from each year for the accepted successes. 

 

I think that ranking the sophomore years against each other -- with their names -- would be the most helpful.  That enables anybody who wishes to pursue this to do it.