Examining Allen Expectations

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

1 minute ago, colin said:

 

he was what, 20 total TDs last year in his first season on a horrible O in like 12 or 13 games?

 

This is based on my expectations of him becoming a great QB, mind you, but it's not that massive of a change for him to have 50% more total TDs in his second year with 25% more games and improving, is it?

 

Yeah, I suppose it is complicated by the fact that he ran for some many touchdowns. I think most people talk about Allen's improvement, and what they are really saying is he needs to be a better passer.  If he hit that passing TD increase, it would be an unprecedented improvement. If you are talking about passing and rushing TDs, I suppose I don't think it is out of the question. 

[jletha]

33 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

Not sure going by the "average" numbers from these 15 quarterbacks is a going to be an accurate measurement.

Quite simply.... some QBs get better with experience and development.  These guys become stars, franchise quarterbacks and solid starters.

Some QBs hit a wall and fail to progress.  In some cases they get worse as defenses catch-on to their tendencies.  These guys turn into busts.

 

For example, Jared Goff's completion percentage jumped by nearly 8 points from his rookie season to Year 2.  He went from a 5-7 TD-INT line to 28-7, and increased his yards per game by almost 100.  Meanwhile, Robert Griffin III was a Pro Bowler as a rookie, and went steadily downhill afterwards.  His completion percentage dropped by 5 points.  His TD-INT ration went from 20-5 to 16-12.  His yards per game went up, but his yards per attempt dropped from 8.1 to 7.0.  

 

In my opinion, you aren't getting a realistic picture by averaging out the results from Goff and Griffin.  One guy got better.  One guy got worse.

How much does Allen's processing/understanding improve?  How about his mechanics and accuracy?  How will he respond to defenses focusing on stopping his scrambles?  Hard to quantify that by looking at a dozen or so completely different players, and averaging out their stats.

 

I think this is exactly why you average them...

 

My concern is that Josh was at the bottom of the stats for those guys. I would be more interested in seeing a comparison of all of the guys that had stats similar to his in year 1 compared to year 2. Just saying hes a top 10 pick doesnt provide the correct reference frame for improvement.

[Patrick Duffy]

He will also have a better WR unit to throw to this time as well. All those things will come into play here, but yes I am hoping (and expect) his play to improve quite a bit with the WRs alone that he has this season and improved Oline.

Edited September 6, 2019 by Patrick_Duffy

[Ta111]

27 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Yeah, I suppose it is complicated by the fact that he ran for some many touchdowns. I think most people talk about Allen's improvement, and what they are really saying is he needs to be a better passer.  If he hit that passing TD increase, it would be an unprecedented improvement. If you are talking about passing and rushing TDs, I suppose I don't think it is out of the question. 

Well, if he passes/runs for 30-35 TD’s that’s an average of 2 per game. Adding another 16 for others (Gore, Singletary, ST and D) that’s an average of 3 per game. If that happens the Bills will be in the playoffs.

[LeGOATski]

Whatever gets the Bills to the playoffs. That's my only expectation.

[PlayoffsPlease]

Assuming no injuries, I am expecting 4,000 yards passing and passer rating in the low 90's. 

 

I am also expecting 600+ yards rushing. 

 

I do not expect him to have any tackles. I do not expect him to have any catches. 

[RochesterLifer]

7 hours ago, HOUSE said:

 

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/rochester/bills/2019/09/05/examining-expectations-for-buffalo-bills-qb-josh-allen

This statement from Wawrow,

"As for completion percentage, I think that needs to improve, but I am not as concerned about it as others. To me it is more about decision making and choosing to take the shorter, easier throws as opposed to leading the league in tossing it deep." 

captures exactly what I am looking/hoping for from Allen. If his recognition and decision making matures, the rest will take care of itself.

[Bruce Harper]

7 hours ago, HOUSE said:

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/rochester/bills/2019/09/05/examining-expectations-for-buffalo-bills-qb-josh-allen

 

It doesn't really work that way but I like this analysis nonetheless.

[row_33]

W's are the only stat that matters

 

 

[MDH]

2 hours ago, clearwater cadet said:

i just hope he doesnt pull a Trubisky.

 

I'd be happy with Trubisky like numbers from last year. People are looking at one game to start the season and using that as proof that Trubisky sucks. He was horrible last night, it happens. Josh will be horrible in some games this year too, it doens't mean he isn't and can't be a good QB.

[Nextmanup]

The data in the article is not particularly encouraging.

 

Roughly half the QBs showed very minimal improvement in year 2, and roughly half didn't improve at all.

 

 

[BuffaloHokie13]

I suppose this is a good a place as any, and by asking I'm probably going through with it anyway, but would people be interested in a comparison of stats for all of the second seasons on these QBs? I've already run and posted the rookie season stats for all QBs with significant play time since 2011 previously. I guess it could be interesting to track...

 

31 rookies qualified. I suppose I could include mahomes even though he didn't qualify as a rookie. 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

3 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

Whatever gets the Bills to the playoffs. That's my only expectation.

^^^^This. If this happens, then we know he directed the ball where it needed to go, when it needed to go, and for enough yardage/scores in enough situations that the Bills pulled out the W. This better include some W's over the Patsies as well, BTW. 

[LeGOATski]

11 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

^^^^This. If this happens, then we know he directed the ball where it needed to go, when it needed to go, and for enough yardage/scores in enough situations that the Bills pulled out the W. This better include some W's over the Patsies as well, BTW. 

At least on over the Pats******

 

The changing of the guard should start now...

[RoyBatty is alive]

6 hours ago, Dopey said:

I'll be happy with:

3200 yds passing

24 Passing TD's

12 INT's

No more than 250 YD's rushing(a little over 15 YD's per game)

5   Rushing TD's 

58% completion

AND...PLAYOFFS!!!

 

This is realistic and 58% completion does demonstrate progress. 

 

I also want a lot fewer rushing attempts but 250 yards really underestimates his ability, even if he stays disciplined n the pocket. 

[BullBuchanan]

6 hours ago, frogger said:

my expectations..

3100-3300 yards passing

500-600 rushing (you can't tell him not to, felt when Taylor decided not to run, it limited our offense)

20-23 TD passes (team will have more rushing yards with Gore)

6-8 rushing TDs

62% passing (shorter routes)

 

 

I'll bet you $100 he doesn't get 62% passing. I don't think he's ever thrown that in his life.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

29 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I'll bet you $100 he doesn't get 62% passing. I don't think he's ever thrown that in his life.

 

For a season or a game? 

His first year at Wyoming he threw 66.7% completions, whaddo I win? 

 

Seriously, though, to go from his 52% (after injury return) to 62% is unlikely.  It's going to be a process for Allen, and to go from 52% to 56% (college ave) or 58% would be a symptom of real progress.

[BullBuchanan]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

For a season or a game? 

His first year at Wyoming he threw 66.7% completions, whaddo I win? 

 

Seriously, though, to go from his 52% (after injury return) to 62% is unlikely.  It's going to be a process for Allen, and to go from 52% to 56% (college ave) or 58% would be a symptom of real progress.

Congrats you've won a lifetime supply of 'atta boys!

I think 58% is a also a realistic sign of strong progress. Unless he turns into a drastically different kind of player somehow, I expect him to be in the bottom 10 of the league throughout his career, and that's ok as long as he learns to hit on the plays that matter.

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

For a season or a game? 

His first year at Wyoming he threw 66.7% completions, whaddo I win? 

 

Seriously, though, to go from his 52% (after injury return) to 62% is unlikely.  It's going to be a process for Allen, and to go from 52% to 56% (college ave) or 58% would be a symptom of real progress.

Part of me recognizes that my projection of just over 60% is an optimistic leap. Another part of me sees a QB who will benefit from improved protection and is throwing to mostly new pass catchers as factors in addition to his own personal growth. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

37 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I'll bet you $100 he doesn't get 62% passing. I don't think he's ever thrown that in his life.

 

Bet you loved Trubisky's scintillating 60%+ passing night last night. Because, you know, completion percentage is EVERYTHING.