Zeke 6 years $90 millionw/ $50 mil guarenteed

[Malazan]

3 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

When talking of the difference between Zeke & an average RB Bill Barnwell fails to take other factors into account. If Zeke is in the backfield who is the defense is going to key on? How many 7 & 8 in the box looks are you going to see? He opens everything else up for the offense and makes everyone better. With an average RB the defense is going to key on the passing game making the "average" RB beat them. At that point Dak folds like a deck of cards.

 

Are you also one of those people that think Sammy Watkins is worth the money because he is a great decoy?

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Honestly, I thought it was such a dumb argument I didn't think I needed to look up stats to establish how important McCoy was to this team. 

 

He did more for this team between 2015 and 2017 than any other back during that same period outside of Zeke.  

 

 

Here are more stats. In the two seasons he was healthy for the full year, 2016 and 2017, he provided 28 and 33% of this teams offense.  For zeke, his healthy seasons in 2016 and 2018, he provided 33 and 36% of his teams offense.  Zeke was better for sure, but outside of Zeke, no other back is doing that. 

 

Just last year, in addition to zeke, saquon was in the 30s, mccaffrey was there. Gurley was just shy of 30 and did it in just 14 games. Mixon was about 30. Kareem hunt was before his getting derailed. Kamara was 26+

 

like I said, in his best season with us he was that kind of guy. There are more backs doing it than you think though. 

 

For him to be up there 2 out of 4 years and one of those being a large volume 4.0 ypc season... he was a good not elite back for us 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

4 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Show me ONE RB making the type of Money that Zeke is now making in the Superbowl.  This will not help Dallas get to or WIN a Superbowl.

 

Draft a Back, use him up during rookie deal.  He wants Double Digit Millions yearly let him walk.  Rinse and Repeat

 

...the deal was hatched so he'd have bail money for his NEXT indiscretion........should happen shortly....stay tuned..............SMH........

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

12 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

Just last year, in addition to zeke, saquon was in the 30s, mccaffrey was there. Gurley was just shy of 30 and did it in just 14 games. Mixon was about 30. Kareem hunt was before his getting derailed. Kamara was 26+

 

like I said, in his best season with us he was that kind of guy. There are more backs doing it than you think though. 

 

For him to be up there 2 out of 4 years and one of those being a large volume 4.0 ypc season... he was a good not elite back for us 

This is easily the dumbest argument I’ve ever had on this board. You got me, rather than be a top 5 back for his time in buffalo, he was only a top 7 back for three out of his four years. You are right, that is just good. That is why you find running backs with that sustained success all over the nfl. 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

31 minutes ago, jeremy2020 said:

 

Are you also one of those people that think Sammy Watkins is worth the money because he is a great decoy?

I don't understand the comparison between the two. Are you comparing Zeke's body of work vs Sammy's? One would be a workhorse and the other you've already mentioned is a decoy. There's a BIG difference between the Zeke's production and where he ranks at his position vs Sammy's one good year and where he ranks at his position. Wouldn't you say? Everything I said in the post you replied to is correct. Do you think Dak can make it without one of the best RBs in the league? I don't believe he can carry an offense, which he would have to do if he only has an "average" RB. 

[NoSaint]

2 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

This is easily the dumbest argument I’ve ever had on this board. You got me, rather than be a top 5 back for his time in buffalo, he was only a top 7 back for three out of his four years. You are right, that is just good. That is why you find running backs with that sustained success all over the nfl. 

I’m sure it’s frustrating that every argument you’ve made hasn’t actually been backed up by the data in the way you expected them to be. 

 

I’ll take top 8, bottom 8, and middle 16 buckets and say he probably had 1 top, 1 bottom and 2 middle seasons. I struggle to put 900 yards or 3.97 ypc as “top 7” performances like you have. The 900 yard seasons probably right on the fringe without doing a deep dive. The 3.97 as a guy that’s not a short yardage back simply is not a great year. 

 

He’s been a good back... at times great... but of the bell cow guys he’s been outside the elite group 3 out of 4 years. I suspect beane agrees with me and not you. If he was a top tier guy 3 out of 4 years I think he’d be finishing out the contract but it’s been a couple years since he’s been that guy reliably 

[NoSaint]

6 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You literally could do this most positions.  And Gurley was just in the SB.  

 Gurley, marshawn... don’t recall if gore was getting $$$ across the niners runs. I don’t recall Jonathan Stewart’s salary but he was pretty established and I think paid in the top 5 or so 

 

problem with these questions is the patriots throw them wildly out of norms. 

[MAJBobby]

19 hours ago, Sunshower said:

What if you have no franchise QB or just a very solid game manager? Or what if your franchise QB is still on his rookie deal? Do you still not pay an elite RB then?

 

 

 

Nope I will never agree with paying RBs a contract that AVV over 10M a year. 

19 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You literally could do this most positions.  And Gurley was just in the SB.  

 

And how much did he contribute in that Super Bowl?

18 hours ago, nucci said:

So if Singletary becomes a superstar in 3 years  we let him leave?

 

18 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Did you already forget 2018?

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/los-angeles-rams/todd-gurley-16734/

 

Nope I didn’t. Did Rams win the Super Bowl. How was Gurley in said super bowl?

[Say When...]

Shaun Alexander says hi

[thebandit27]

20 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Nope I will never agree with paying RBs a contract that AVV over 10M a year. 

 

And how much did he contribute in that Super Bowl?

 

 

Nope I didn’t. Did Rams win the Super Bowl. How was Gurley in said super bowl?

 

First, you didn't say "won", you said:

 

Second, does the fact that he got hurt negate his contributions to the team's Super Bowl run?

 

The dude had over 1,800 yards from scrimmage (4th in the NFL behind Saquon, Zeke, and McCaffrey) and scored 21 TDs (lead all non-QBs by a significant margin--the next closest was Kamara with 18, followed by Antonio Brown with 15).

 

For some further context: Gurley scored 21 TDs from scrimmage in 2018.  Without looking, who finished 2nd on the Rams in TDs from scrimmage, and with how many?

 

 

 

It was Robert Woods...with 7.  So Gurley literally scored 3x as many TDs as the next closest Rams' player.
 

 

 

As a team, the Rams scored 55 TDs from scrimmage in 2018. Gurley had 21 of those...that's 38 percent. He also accounted for 26 percent of the team's total yards from scrimmage.

 

Oh, and he did all of this after he was given his big-money deal.

 

Let's not lose sight of how important he is to their offense. If you're making your case based upon the Super Bowl, it only strengthens the idea that Gurley was the team's most important player.  He played, by far, his lowest snap count of the season, and the Rams scored their fewest points of the season.  It's not a coincidence.

Edited September 5, 2019 by thebandit27

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

First, you didn't say "won", you said:

 

Second, does the fact that he got hurt negate his contributions to the team's Super Bowl run?

 

The dude had over 1,800 yards from scrimmage (4th in the NFL behind Saquon, Zeke, and McCaffrey) and scored 21 TDs (lead all non-QBs by a significant margin--the next closest was Kamara with 18, followed by Antonio Brown with 15).

 

For some further context: Gurley scored 21 TDs from scrimmage in 2018.  Without looking, who finished 2nd on the Rams in TDs from scrimmage, and with how many?

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

It was Robert Woods...with 7.  So Gurley literally scored 3x as many TDs as the next closest Rams' player.
 

 

 

 

As a team, the Rams scored 55 TDs from scrimmage in 2018. Gurley had 21 of those...that's 38 percent. He also accounted for 26 percent of the team's total yards from scrimmage.

 

Let's not lose sight of how important he is to their offense. If you're making your case based upon the Super Bowl, it only strengthens the idea that Gurley was the team's most important player.  He played, by far, his lowest snap count of the season, and the Rams scored their fewest points of the season.  It's not a coincidence.

 Ok. Still doesn’t change my stance on paying RBs 

5 minutes ago, Say When... said:

Shaun Alexander says hi

 

Different Generation says Hi. And how quickly did he fall off the cliff again?

[thebandit27]

4 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 Ok. Still doesn’t change my stance on paying RBs 

 

 

That's fine, but it's probably worth noting in your original statement something to the effect of "even if you show me I won't change my mind" as opposed to "show me just one" and then saying "yeah, but that doesn't matter"

[Say When...]

6 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Different Generation says Hi. And how quickly did he fall off the cliff again?

 

that was my point, you misunderstood me, i am in agreement with you.

 

might have been a different generation but that fall-off was epic, it's burned in my memory but i'm sure there's other examples.

[MAJBobby]

5 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

That's fine, but it's probably worth noting in your original statement something to the effect of "even if you show me I won't change my mind" as opposed to "show me just one" and then saying "yeah, but that doesn't matter"

 

I changed you all got me to change. I went from never pay RBs to I wouldn’t pay a RB in the double digit AVV. So got me to change my stance a bit 

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

I changed you all got me to change. I went from never pay RBs to I wouldn’t pay a RB in the double digit AVV. So got me to change my stance a bit 

 

Interesting...for the record, I don't need anyone to change their stance.  I endeavor to prod folks into truly thinking theirs all the way through (and I encourage folks to do the same for me).

 

As it stands, the only way I'm paying a RB Zeke's kind of money is if 3 factors are met:

1) He is a truly elite RB

2) He is young and healthy

3) My team is clearly and obviously inside my Super Bowl window

[MAJBobby]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Interesting...for the record, I don't need anyone to change their stance.  I endeavor to prod folks into truly thinking theirs all the way through (and I encourage folks to do the same for me).

 

As it stands, the only way I'm paying a RB Zeke's kind of money is if 3 factors are met:

1) He is a truly elite RB

2) He is young and healthy

3) My team is clearly and obviously inside my Super Bowl window

 

I am good with those criteria. I just don’t see enough Value in the position. Specially when yearly you have Rookies coming in an excelling. 

 

Like what is better for a TEAM 

 

paying a RB Elliot money or having a RB on your roster like Conner at his price

 

 

also look at Dallas OL. Would most RBs perform similar to Elliot behind that OL?  If the answer is yes then why pay the RB?

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

17 hours ago, DCOrange said:

 

Zeke was 20th out of 55 qualifying runners in the league in terms of how often he faced 8+ in the box last year, meaning he was basically average in that regard. He was behind guys like Royce Freeman, Alfred Morris, Austin Ekeler, Sony Michel, Dion Lewis, and Elijah McGuire. There isn't really much evidence that teams key on him any more than they do anyone else, and there also isn't really much evidence to suggest that teams stack the box against the best RBs in general, as the following RBs faced 8+ in the box less than the average RB:

 

Alvin Kamara

Christian McCaffrey

Dalvin Cook

Adrian Peterson (which is just really odd considering how bad the rest of the team was last year)

LeSean McCoy

Joe Mixon

Kareem Hunt

and 3rd least in the league: Todd Gurley

A few things on this. I found where you got your info, he's 20th based on percentage, not number of times he faces 8+ in the box. The number of times he faced 8+ in the box, based on his percentage & number of carries, would make #1 in this category, not 20th. Included in the list of the other 19 runners are RBs who had a fraction of the carries Zeke had, like 3rd down short yardage backs who are going to see a higher percentage of 8 in the box looks. There's a bunch of RBs you're trying to compare Zeke who had just below 100 carries - just over 100 vs Zeke's 304. To qualify for the data you supplied all a RB needed was 85 carries or 5.3 carries a game. 

 

The other thing would be, I asked if Zeke is in the backfield how many 7-8 in the box looks are you going to see. The data you supplied is for running plays only, it doesn't take into account 8+ in the box looks on plays the Cowboys ended up passing.

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/rushing#percent-eight-defenders

[BillsFan4]

 

 

It doesn’t exactly look like he’s been training hard. Look at that gut! lol (watch the whole video)

Edited September 5, 2019 by BillsFan4

[DCOrange]

2 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

A few things on this. I found where you got your info, he's 20th based on percentage, not number of times he faces 8+ in the box. The number of times he faced 8+ in the box, based on his percentage & number of carries, would make #1 in this category, not 20th. Included in the list of the other 19 runners are RBs who had a fraction of the carries Zeke had, like 3rd down short yardage backs who are going to see a higher percentage of 8 in the box looks. There's a bunch of RBs you're trying to compare Zeke who had just below 100 carries - just over 100 vs Zeke's 304. To qualify for the data you supplied all a RB needed was 85 carries or 5.3 carries a game. 

 

The other thing would be, I asked if Zeke is in the backfield how many 7-8 in the box looks are you going to see. The data you supplied is for running plays only, it doesn't take into account 8+ in the box looks on plays the Cowboys ended up passing.

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/rushing#percent-eight-defenders

 

Yes, but the point is that he's not facing 8+ in the box on the overwhelming majority of his runs. Do you think the defense is just guessing wrong and stacking the box on all the pass plays or do you think, maybe, just maybe, that they just don't stack the box against Dallas all that much with or without Zeke?

[Element115]

It's only 24 mill gauranteed.