row_33 Posted September 3, 2019 Posted September 3, 2019 having to go 11-4 after losing to the Jets would be a tall task
row_33 Posted September 3, 2019 Posted September 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: We don't know. That's part of the point. They all matter. I don't have anything else that I can add to my point i just hope for the team to improve and become a real contender just when Brady rides off into the sunset read today that 15 teams are all playing the "trust the process" card
Jobot Posted September 4, 2019 Posted September 4, 2019 15 hours ago, dakrider said: I disagree. I think this is a critical game for Bills. I expect the Jets to get better as the season goes on, especially on offense. Of course I think the Bills will do that too. However the Bills Defense should be head and shoulders above the Jets D in Game 1 here and Bills have to take advantage of that and win this game. If Bills can't beat what was a lousy Jets team last year in Game 1, then Bills fans have no business talking about playoffs imo. I'm hoping the Bills can stick near .500 throughout the first half of the year. I fully anticipate the O-line to have some bumpy points as they try to gel and hopefully hit stride mid-year. You want your team performing best at the end of the year, so I disagree that a loss to the Jets week-1 means playoffs are out of a realistic expectation.
row_33 Posted September 4, 2019 Posted September 4, 2019 important enough to sit there watching and try to break out of that jaded spell since the 2000 season, hoping for greatness....
LABILLBACKER Posted September 4, 2019 Posted September 4, 2019 It's not just the Jets game. This team has an opportunity to start the season 3-0. Weeks 13-16 are brutal. If they want any chance of making the playoffs this year it's imperative that they get off hot.....
ColoradoBills Posted September 4, 2019 Posted September 4, 2019 18 hours ago, PlayoffsPlease said: Historically your chances of making the playoffs with a week 1 win are 54% . A week one loss means a 25% chance. Probability percentages are not binary. But if you lose week 1, your chances of making the playoffs, the last 30 years, are much much less. This is based on historical facts. It is not a theory or a debatable point. If past is prologue, week one is important. I agree that the first game is very important. Your quoted statistics are in fact, a fact, BUT the conclusions drawn from statistics can be debated. Statistically, the probability of any team making the playoffs (12 spots for 32 teams) is 37.5%. I will ask you to consider the following: 1. All the football teams that have played their first game over the past 30 years are not equal in their playoff chances. Some of those teams were very strong, some were very weak and the rest were "average" in their strength going into game 1. 2. If you use the above consideration then one could say there is a higher probability that the strong teams beat the weaker teams in the first week of the season at a higher rate than weaker teams beating stronger teams. 3. Then one could conclude that the winners of game 1 "tend" to be the better teams that particular year resulting in the 54% to 25% statistic. An analogy of the conclusion I draw from the statistic is that the "cream" starts to rise from the 1st game. That conclusion differs from the idea that let's say the Miami Dolphins (as an example of a weak team) winning their 1st game this year somehow changes their "destiny" of NOT making the playoffs to having a 54% chance of making the playoffs because they won the game with a few lucky bounces. FWIW
PlayoffsPlease Posted September 4, 2019 Posted September 4, 2019 34 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: I agree that the first game is very important. Your quoted statistics are in fact, a fact, BUT the conclusions drawn from statistics can be debated. Statistically, the probability of any team making the playoffs (12 spots for 32 teams) is 37.5%. I will ask you to consider the following: 1. All the football teams that have played their first game over the past 30 years are not equal in their playoff chances. Some of those teams were very strong, some were very weak and the rest were "average" in their strength going into game 1. 2. If you use the above consideration then one could say there is a higher probability that the strong teams beat the weaker teams in the first week of the season at a higher rate than weaker teams beating stronger teams. 3. Then one could conclude that the winners of game 1 "tend" to be the better teams that particular year resulting in the 54% to 25% statistic. An analogy of the conclusion I draw from the statistic is that the "cream" starts to rise from the 1st game. That conclusion differs from the idea that let's say the Miami Dolphins (as an example of a weak team) winning their 1st game this year somehow changes their "destiny" of NOT making the playoffs to having a 54% chance of making the playoffs because they won the game with a few lucky bounces. FWIW To expand on the point you are trying to make, sometimes top teams will meet week 1. If the Chiefs played the Pats week 1, would NOT claim the loser has only a 25% chance of making the playoffs. I will say that with a high degree of certainty you can only lose 6 games and expect to make the playoffs. The Jets and Bills are not the chiefs and patriots. The are truly each "just a team". A loss to the Bills or a loss to the Jets is not the same as a loss to the Patriots or the Chiefs. To expand on your second point, the team that loses is way more likely to be "just a team" than the type of powerhouse that will overcome the historical odds and have an easy March to the playoffs. The most troubling thing to me is how few teams overcome being 2 games below 500 at any point to make the playoffs, 0-2 teams. Single digit success rates or close to it (0-2 is 12%). A week one loss has you 50% of the way to oblivion. 16 games is a really small universe. Its part of what makes football unique from the other major sports.
ColoradoBills Posted September 4, 2019 Posted September 4, 2019 7 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said: To expand on the point you are trying to make, sometimes top teams will meet week 1. If the Chiefs played the Pats week 1, would NOT claim the loser has only a 25% chance of making the playoffs. I will say that with a high degree of certainty you can only lose 6 games and expect to make the playoffs. The Jets and Bills are not the chiefs and patriots. The are truly each "just a team". A loss to the Bills or a loss to the Jets is not the same as a loss to the Patriots or the Chiefs. To expand on your second point, the team that loses is way more likely to be "just a team" than the type of powerhouse that will overcome the historical odds and have an easy March to the playoffs. The most troubling thing to me is how few teams overcome being 2 games below 500 at any point to make the playoffs, 0-2 teams. Single digit success rates or close to it (0-2 is 12%). A week one loss has you 50% of the way to oblivion. 16 games is a really small universe. Its part of what makes football unique from the other major sports. Thank you for seeing my point. The Bills are a classic team striving to change their trend and become a team worthy of a strong playoff challenge. For me the past is the past and the new organization is in fact "new". There is only 2 ways to make the playoffs. Win your division or be one of the 2 wildcards out of the remaining 12 teams. The frigging Pats* have been a wall for a division title for the entire century condemning the Bills to Wildcard status only. Consistently losing 2 games a year to the Pats* also reduce the odds of a Wildcard compared to the rest of the division. Statistically, the chances of the Bills making the playoffs as a Wildcard (2 of 12 teams) has been 16.6% throughout the Pats* dynasty. Remember that is compared to 37.5% for a team that "could" be a Division Champion. The simple truth is having the Pats* win the division each year cuts the Bills (Phish and Jests too) chances of playoffs by more than half. Throwing in the 2 losses a year to the Pats* decreases those chances a lot more (I'm not going to do the math but probably should). When you look at at the above it makes this Sunday's game very important. The other way for the Bills to get to the playoffs is at least splitting the series with the Pats* which I hope happens this year. I am looking forward to see how this season plays out! Go Bills!
PlayoffsPlease Posted September 4, 2019 Posted September 4, 2019 12 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: Thank you for seeing my point. The Bills are a classic team striving to change their trend and become a team worthy of a strong playoff challenge. For me the past is the past and the new organization is in fact "new". There is only 2 ways to make the playoffs. Win your division or be one of the 2 wildcards out of the remaining 12 teams. The frigging Pats* have been a wall for a division title for the entire century condemning the Bills to Wildcard status only. Consistently losing 2 games a year to the Pats* also reduce the odds of a Wildcard compared to the rest of the division. Statistically, the chances of the Bills making the playoffs as a Wildcard (2 of 12 teams) has been 16.6% throughout the Pats* dynasty. Remember that is compared to 37.5% for a team that "could" be a Division Champion. The simple truth is having the Pats* win the division each year cuts the Bills (Phish and Jests too) chances of playoffs by more than half. Throwing in the 2 losses a year to the Pats* decreases those chances a lot more (I'm not going to do the math but probably should). When you look at at the above it makes this Sunday's game very important. The other way for the Bills to get to the playoffs is at least splitting the series with the Pats* which I hope happens this year. I am looking forward to see how this season plays out! Go Bills! The Patriots won't win every game. The Chiefs wont win every game. I suspect they will go into every game this season with the view that they "should win" the upcoming game. I fear that losing teams, players and coaches are somewhat self-defeating by parsing the games into "should win" and "should not expect to win" categories. I think you know you have arrived when you stop doing that. I suspect this is the first year the since Reid became coach the Chiefs have this perspective. It may be more accurate to say the Bills-Jets game is a very "important indicator" of where the teams are rather get caught up in the semantics of the game itself being "important". In fact if you think about it, "important game" is pretty much an oxymoron.
row_33 Posted September 4, 2019 Posted September 4, 2019 31 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said: The Patriots won't win every game. The Chiefs wont win every game. I suspect they will go into every game this season with the view that they "should win" the upcoming game. I fear that losing teams, players and coaches are somewhat self-defeating by parsing the games into "should win" and "should not expect to win" categories. I think you know you have arrived when you stop doing that. I suspect this is the first year the since Reid became coach the Chiefs have this perspective. It may be more accurate to say the Bills-Jets game is a very "important indicator" of where the teams are rather get caught up in the semantics of the game itself being "important". In fact if you think about it, "important game" is pretty much an oxymoron. Pats will look horrible in a Prime Time game, say at Baltimore in November, so we can have the 28th annual media announcement that they are finished the media bloodbath and trumpeting will continue for weeks until the Pats win it all again
auburnbillsbacker Posted September 4, 2019 Posted September 4, 2019 On 9/3/2019 at 10:47 AM, thebandit27 said: If they win, they'll be 1-0, and have 15 games remaining. If they lose, they'll be 0-1, and have 15 games remaining. Not trying to be a jerk, but that's really the long and short of it. It's one game. It's only 1 game but when the margin of error for making the playoffs is so small the Bills need to beat teams like the Jets.
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