Henry v. Shelton

[ATBNG]

Henry did it 2 years in a row with the Bills, in the (at the time) tough AFC East, and there's NO ONE on the Cardinals' roster who is even close to Henry in terms of talent.  That and his low pricetag are why Green is still interested in him after all this time, despite Alexander and James being available for just 2nd rounders.  There's little doubt in my mind that, if he stays healthy, he'll start the whole season and rack up AT LEAST that many yards and TD's.  Again it's the NFC West we're talking about here.  The Cardinals were still in the running to WIN the division until the last week of the year, and they were never above .500! 

 

How do you know Green is interested in him? Even if he is, he might be interested in trading exactly what I stated for him, which doesn't make my guess as to what Henry will get dealt for incorrect (yet).

 

Your argument doesn't make an iota of sense - the division might end up being bad again, but that's no reason Arizona specifically needs to trade for Travis Henry. They might look elsewhere, inward (Shipp?) or to the draft.

 

 

How many yards did he gain on 3rd downs with the Bills?  And there is EVERY reason to believe he can duplicate, if not surpass those numbers, again assuming he's healthy, which is where the "conditional" part comes into play.

 

Every reason, except....

* Henry can't stay on the field

* Henry can't block, and they are planning to run a pass heavy offense with a relatively immobile QB. More than 3 sacks a game from 2002-2004...these are not all his fault but the number went down significantly as soon as Henry left the lineup while Bledsoe remained - this was not a coincidence, and has been very consistent.

* Henry isn't that bright. For a long time up in Minnesota, Denny had the most intelligent running back in football in Robert Smith and likes to run a dynamic offense with a versatile tailback. Henry just doesn't seem like a good fit.

* Henry has fumbled a lot more than the average tailback across his career. Has he improved? Yes, but perhaps at the expense of his yardage.

* Because of all the above, he limits what kind of offense can be run, stresses others in protection schemes, and gets the QB extra contact.

 

Personally, I don't think he'll ever top 1,000 yards again.

 

So the Bills LOST games because of Travis in 2002 and 2003?  You don't think that the horrible defense in 2002, or the lack of any offensive threat for most of 2003 had anything to do with the Bills losing?

 

I didn't remotely say that. My only point is that he's never had a productive season on a team with a winning record. There also is the stark contrast in the Bills' record with him in 2004 versus McGahee. This won't be ignored. It is a giant red flag.

 

Don't apply for that GM job just yet ATBNG.  TD wouldn't stop at those paltry numbers, and if Green balks at compensation at a 2nd or 1st rounder should Henry reach 1400+ yards, screw him and as I said, let him take a chance with a rookie.

 

That makes no sense. TD should be trying to set "paltry" numbers on a conditional pick - the lower the goals, the better for the Bills.

 

TD's job is to present your argument that Travis is great. My argument is that he's not great or even good because football is a team sport, and Henry's individual yardage accomplishments three years ago are irrelevant to winning in 2005 and beyond.

 

If I were a GM, I wouldn't touch Travis Henry with a ten foot pole in 2005.

[ATBNG]

No, because TD may still think that he could get the extra two out of the Cards and is waiting to see if Green blinks. He knows he can get the straight up and thinks he can get the extra two. Green may or may not blink and give in at the last second because TD is lying to him and telling him we're keeping Travis unless we get the extra two, whether that is true or not.

 

There is very little if anything that has come out recently that makes me think that isn't what is going on. Green is hoping TD blinks and says okay to the straight up before he blinks and says okay, we'll do the extra two. That is why TD continues to say we'll keep Travis and we're not giving him up without fair value, which we think is more than Shelton (again, whether he really believes that or not isn't known and doesn't matter, he is just playing poker).

 

What TD furthermore has going for him is being known to just walk away from deals. The Cards may well be thinking he is going to go for the straght up, but that fukker, he may just walk away, he's a stubborn bastard and we can't trust him.

297056[/snapback]

 

This assumes TD is a genius and everyone else is an idiot. This isn't reality.

 

Let's assume your premise is true. Let's assume LA's premise is true (the straight up trade makes sense for both teams because each player is more valuable to the other - a concept with which I agree wholeheartedly BTW although I can't really comment on these two guys not knowing Shelton's ability first hand). TD decides to play poker as you state and Green subsequently walks away and signs some other RB for what he perceives to be less compensation. If that happens, Donahoe has hurt the Bills because he missed out a chance to better the team.

 

I'm not even the biggest TD fan, but I think he's better than that. If you have a chance to improve your team, you do it.

[Kelly the Dog]

This assumes TD is a genius and everyone else is an idiot. This isn't reality.

 

Let's assume your premise is true. Let's assume LA's premise is true (the straight up trade makes sense for both teams because each player is more valuable to the other - a concept with which I agree wholeheartedly BTW although I can't really comment on these two guys not knowing Shelton's ability first hand). TD decides to play poker as you state and Green subsequently walks away and signs some other RB for what he perceives to be less compensation. If that happens, Donahoe has hurt the Bills because he missed out a chance to better the team.

 

I'm not even the biggest TD fan, but I think he's better than that. If you have a chance to improve your team, you do it.

297082[/snapback]

I didnt say he was going to get away with it, I said this seems what is happening. If you have been following the Bills, you know that TD is a good poker player. It may very well be that Green calls his bluff and the straight up trade is made and benefits both teams. It may also be that Green caves at the last second because TD is more likely to keep Travis than Green is to keep Shelton. It is highly unlikely IMO that TD just walks away from the Shelton deal which is by almost all accounts on the table. TD can wait it out as long or longer than Green can, IMO.

 

Personally, I think he makes the trade and we swap the seconds. The second most highly possible ending is that we make the trade straight up. The least likely is that Green walks away and keeps Shelton and we keep Henry (at least for the time being).

 

By the way, in your post above, Travis rarely played on third downs in 2002 and 2003 on the Bills, which made his yards even more remarkable. Larry Centers played third down back almost the entire 2002 season, and Sammy Morris played it when he wasn't hurt in 2003. Travis played some and Joe Burns and Ken Simonton played some. Travis was the third down back at most a third of one season.

[ATBNG]

I didnt say he was going to get away with it, I said this seems what is happening. If you have been following the Bills, you know that TD is a good poker player. It may very well be that Green calls his bluff and the straight up trade is made and benefits both teams. It may also be that Green caves at the last second because TD is more likely to keep Travis than Green is to keep Shelton. It is highly unlikely IMO that TD just walks away from the Shelton deal which is by almost all accounts on the table. TD can wait it out as long or longer than Green can, IMO.

 

Sorry. I don't agree that he is that good. I think he paid too much for Losman, and certainly Bledsoe. I've been much more impressed with how he's built the bottom half of the roster than his high level trades and big impact decisions. I mean really - who has he swindled definitively?

 

I also think the imminence and mutual interest in this trade has been built up far more on the board than in real life, but that's a hunch - I have no proof of it. Too many "updates" coming from message boards for my taste.

 

By the way, in your post above, Travis rarely played on third downs in 2002 and 2003 on the Bills, which made his yards even more remarkable. Larry Centers played third down back almost the entire 2002 season, and Sammy Morris played it when he wasn't hurt in 2003. Travis played some and Joe Burns and Ken Simonton played some. Travis was the third down back at most a third of one season.

297087[/snapback]

 

Fair and balanced point - you're correct. Sorry.

[VABills]

Thanks, it looks like you like my football posts better than political ones 

296851[/snapback]

Maybe you should stick to the things you know a little more about. Football.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Sorry. I don't agree that he is that good. I think he paid too much for Losman, and certainly Bledsoe. I've been much more impressed with how he's built the bottom half of the roster than his high level trades and big impact decisions. I mean really - who has he swindled definitively?

 

297099[/snapback]

 

This is a great thread which I'm just catching up with amidst some business travel.

 

From my review, I think your judgment of Henry is probably similar to a lot of teams in the league, but by definition differs from that of a team that has decided to make a trade for Henry (AZ has made firm offers which have been made public and even confirmed by Green) that if the Bills had accepted then, Henry would now be a Cardinal and they would ink him in as a contributor to their line-up and might decide to sell him to their fans as the next Emmit Smith.

 

Your theorizing needs to take into accountthat AZ simply disagrees with your assessment and that as many as 4-5 other teams have expressed interest (though some of them may have done this to merely spread misinformation around the NFL) if you want it to be accurate.

 

Is Green simply folling the NFL and us with AZ's interest and simply walk away having fooled us completely? Possible, but really doubtful as such a move can probably be justified by AZ if the walaway is couched in the context of "buyer beware" and suddenly AZ got an offer that seems demonstrably to be much better than the final "real" offer from the Bills.

 

However, to do this means the NFL will be reluctant to put themselves in a position of partnership with Green for fear they would end up getting used like the Bills, players in the future would question public endorsements of their skills made by Green after he praised and then walked away from Henry, and Green abd the Cards have simply wasted a bucnch of time and effort on thos potential deal to simply walk away unless they get a much better offer or really have to walk away.

 

All signs simply point to AZ and Green disagreeing in a big way with your assessment of Henry.

 

The interesting question about TD is actually what is his plan B if AZ were to get a better offer and simply walk away. Is there some contingent deal with Tampa Bay or Miami that he has talked with them in whatever back channel way that is getting him to hold off on makinga deal? I don't know.

 

The TD's plan B may simply be one to say "Oh well" if AZ walks away after he tries to squeeze a swap of picks out of them, and try to make peace with Henry to be a back-up to WM this year. It looks tough to manage, but I think Henry would have few rational choices but to try to make big bucks by being the best back-up to WM he could be. TH could do something stupid and counter to his own interests like punch the clock and not try very hard for the Bills this year so he earns his FA statius in the off-season, but such a game would leave such a bad judgment about TH around the league his contract value would truly plummet. As stupid as folks might judge him to be he does not show signs of being Wickey Williams yet.

 

In general, I think the big hold-up to a deal is that AZ has actually boxed themselves into a corner with the moves they have made signing both a starter and back-up LT so it is clear they are going to have to cut Shelton if they do not make a deal.

 

I think TD is waiting because it is actually AZ which is in fear that no deal will happen as TD might get a better offer for TH, and they will simply have to cut Shelton as a cap casualty in June and get nothing.

 

The big "relative" thing which strikes me as a true as best as I can tell and you seem to discount is that both teams want to make a deal, but there is more of a possibility that the proven wily and operatig TD has something unknown on the backburner (it doesn't matter whether you or I think the Bledsoe, tagging/trading Price, drafting WM, or trading the pick/drafting Losman deals were good, what matters is that TD has a definite practice of draft surprises).

 

AZ has already blinked in that Green has publicly praised Henry and publicly backed off of asking for a draft pick. They are running scared and really seem to want to not get nothing for Shelton and TD seems to be twisting the knife for all he can get.

[Alaska Darin]

Thanks, it looks like you like my football posts better than political ones 

296851[/snapback]

It's like you're two different people!

[MadBuffaloDisease]

How do you know Green is interested in him? Even if he is, he might be interested in trading exactly what I stated for him, which doesn't make my guess as to what Henry will get dealt for incorrect (yet).

 

Your argument doesn't make an iota of sense - the division might end up being bad again,  but that's no reason Arizona specifically needs to trade for Travis Henry. They might look elsewhere, inward (Shipp?) or to the draft.

Every reason, except....

* Henry can't stay on the field

* Henry can't block, and they are planning to run a pass heavy offense with a relatively immobile QB. More than 3 sacks a game from 2002-2004...these are not all his fault but the number went down significantly as soon as Henry left the lineup while Bledsoe remained - this was not a coincidence, and has been very consistent.

* Henry isn't that bright. For a long time up in Minnesota, Denny had the most intelligent running back in football in Robert Smith and likes to run a dynamic offense with a versatile tailback. Henry just doesn't seem like a good fit.

* Henry has fumbled a lot more than the average tailback across his career. Has he improved? Yes, but perhaps at the expense of his yardage.   

* Because of all the above, he limits what kind of offense can be run, stresses others in protection schemes, and gets the QB extra contact. 

 

Personally, I don't think he'll ever top 1,000 yards again.

I didn't remotely say that. My only point is that he's never had a productive season on a team with a winning record. There also is the stark contrast in the Bills' record with him in 2004 versus McGahee. This won't be ignored. It is a giant red flag.

That makes no sense.  TD should be trying to set "paltry" numbers on a conditional pick - the lower the goals, the better for the Bills.

 

TD's job is to present your argument that Travis is great. My argument is that he's not great or even good because football is a team sport, and Henry's individual yardage accomplishments three years ago are irrelevant to winning in 2005 and beyond.

 

If I were a GM, I wouldn't touch Travis Henry with a ten foot pole in 2005.

You probably would have given-up Peerless for a conditional 3rd rounder, with that logic.

 

Your mistake is allowing your personal feelings about Travis to enter into what should purely be a business transaction. You could believe whatever you want about what Travis may or may not do in the future, but you don't offer a lame deal to another team when you're trying to get the most for him. The conditions you proposed above are the MINIMUM I'd ask for, but I would add other conditions to bump-up the compensation to a 1st rounder should Travis reach them, because the Bills should be compensated if Travis plays up to the level he's shown. To do otherwise makes so little sense it's not even worth making the trade. Oh and Green has stated publicly that he's still interested in Travis. And he's willing to give up at least Shelton, who I'd say is worth much more than a 4th rounder.

[ATBNG]

Oh and Green has stated publicly that he's still interested in Travis.  And he's willing to give up at least Shelton, who I'd say is worth much more than a 4th rounder.

297710[/snapback]

 

According to TD, this isn't Green's position, although Leo Roth's sources say otherwise.

 

Yahoo Updates March 31 and April 4

Bills' general manager Tom Donahoe said Wednesday that he is still talking with Cardinals' officials in hopes of working out a trade that would send running back Travis Henry to Arizona. Although the Cardinals are willing to part with offensive tackle L.J. Shelton, the Bills have asked to swap spots in the second round of next month's draft. "They told us they didn't want to do the one-on-one swap either," Donahoe told Sirius NFL Radio. "They wanted us to give them Travis, plus something else."

 

Leo Roth, of the Rochester Democrat & Chronicle, reports Arizona Cardinals head coach Dennis Green told the East Valley Tribune that the Cardinals are still very interested in acquiring RB Travis Henry from the Buffalo Bills. Sources indicated the Cardinals are no longer looking for additional compensation, just in doing a player-for-player swap. The Cardinals have been offering OLT L.J. Shelton to the Bills. The Bills were also previously noted to not want to just do a player-for-player trade and were also looking for something more. Green went on to say they do not want to trade draft picks in the deal; while also noting Henry's current contract with just one-year remaining is not an obstacle.

 

Just let my prediction be - I have thought since season's end that Henry will be traded for a fifth that conditionally could become a fourth, I'm sticking by it, and eventually we'll see what actually happens. You act like I'm actually involved in the deal and I'm blowing it. Let it play out.