WR Competition - Snap Count Analysis game 3

[Alphadawg7]

 

 

I posted this in the Duke thread, but thought this was more suited for the WR competition overall.  This was interesting to read today as the 3rd preseason game tends to be the game that gives away the most information in camp/preseason battles.  So here are my thoughts on what some of this MIGHT mean as obviously, no one really knows what the coaches are thinking.

 

1. Duke - To me its clear they felt he deserved more time on the field and even got in with the ones and obviously with the twos.  This is quite the climb in what was supposed to be a dress rehearsal, and he didnt disappoint.  
   1. My Opinion:  They liked what they saw of Duke and are seriously considering keeping him and Duke only helped those chances.  He's really climbed up the depth chart, and I think he is going to make this team.  I have no idea who will start opposite Brown, but it wouldn't surprise if he was in the conversation.  Cole slashing the short and middle, Brown taking the top off, Duke as the sure handed possession guy and our TE's pressing the seams would make a very balanced and difficult offense to cover if they all do their jobs well.
2. Zay - While Zay started with the ones, it seems like they aren't clear on what to do with him and I think they are really pondering both his role, and maybe place on this team.  You don't risk a sure "starter" on the field in the 2nd half of a preseason game, especially when you have other guys to evaluate for the roster.  
   1. My Opinion:  Zay's "presumed" starter role is in serious jeopardy and may have already slipped out of his hands like a Josh Allen TD strike.  And if he does officially fall out of the starter conversation, then his role and place on the team gets more shaky.  And its possible they ran him in the 2nd half to try and get him involved to maybe try and boost some potential trade value too considering he had done mostly nothing in the first 2 games other than dropping a TD strike from Josh.
3. McKenzie vs Ray Ray - I think this is a CLEAR indication that McKenzie has stepped out in front of Ray Ray with a nice lead.  If they were still wavering on him, they would have given him more snaps in this battle.  I don't see Ray Ray making this team right now as McKenzie has outplayed him in the games after Ray Ray had the more impressive camp.
   1. My Opinion:  McKenzie makes the 53 over Ray Ray, assuming they keep enough WR's to merit keeping either.
4. Robert Foster - For all the bubble talk for him, I think the snap count actually lends itself to possibly suggesting he's safer than some think.  If he was fighting for a roster spot I just don't see them only giving him 2 snaps in the 3rd preseason game.  For a guy that was a gamer last year, if they were starting to waver on him, I would think they would give him a lot of snaps for 2 reasons:  To better evaluate him and also potentially showcase him for a trade as he would have trade value (rather than just cut him).  
   1. My Opinion:  Foster's seat isn't as hot as Zay's, but his role is still up in the air for sure and he's not safe.  
5. Everyone else:  None of the other guys will be on this roster week 1.  Cam Phillips had a strong camp, but Duke was the one moving up the depth charts the last 2 weeks and getting runs in with the 1's and 2's.  Several of the WR's will be legit PS candidates though and I expect at least 2 make it there, maybe more.  
   1. My Opinion:  Cam, Sills and Easley would be guys I would keep an eye out for the PS.  

Edited August 24, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[mjt328]

Every coach utilizes preseason differently.  

The idea that Game 3 is the "dress rehearsal" for the regular season doesn't always apply.

 

The coaches have been talking up Zay Jones and his versatility all offseason.  I think the reason he played well into the second half, was because they wanted to give him actual game reps out of the slot (which he isn't going to do with Cole Beasley on the field).  I would be absolutely shocked if Jones gets cut.  To me, he is absolutely safe - along with John Brown, Beasley, Robert Foster and Andre Roberts.

 

I agree that WR#6 comes down to Isaiah McKenzie, Duke Williams and Ray Ray McCloud.  My guess is that McKenzie has the leg-up in this competition, but they are going to have a really tough time letting Williams go after his performance the last two weeks.  It felt like they wanted to give him a chance to earn his place, and he's stepped up big.  They may be forced into keeping 7 receivers.  McCloud hasn't stood out in preseason games, and he's still eligible for the practice squad.  He's on the outside looking in.

 

 

[CLTbills]

Brown, Beasley, Zay, Roberts, Duke, and McKenzie. 

 

I think its been all but settled at this point, especially after another great performance from Duke this week.

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, CLTbills said:

Brown, Beasley, Zay, Roberts, Duke, and McKenzie. 

 

I think its been all but settled at this point, especially after another great performance from Duke this week.

 

I just dont see them giving up on Foster after how he played the last 7 games last year.  He's a 2nd year player, cheap, and has more upside than other WR on this team.  

 

But hey, I never thought a guy like Karlos Williams would get cut either after his rookie year, but it was Karlos the man who got himself cut.  So maybe Foster has rubbed the coaches the wrong way...but still I think they would have played him a lot more like they did Zay last night if he was on the bubble to try and boost his trade value.  Just my 2 cents

[CLTbills]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I just dont see them giving up on Foster after how he played the last 7 games last year.  He's a 2nd year player, cheap, and has more upside than other WR on this team.  

 

But hey, I never thought a guy like Karlos Williams would get cut either after his rookie year, but it was Karlos the man who got himself cut.  So maybe Foster has rubbed the coaches the wrong way...but still I think they would have played him a lot more like they did Zay last night if he was on the bubble to try and boost his trade value.  Just my 2 cents

I agree with you, to a point. I don’t think they’d “give up” on him either, but can you say he’s legitimately out-performed any of the six I listed since the start of camp? If they keep 7, I’d say keep him. But if we’re going on the premise that they’re keeping 6, I don’t see him as a top 6 performer thus far through camp.

 

How would you justify cutting the guys who have been performing for a guy who hasn’t?

 

[BillsVet]

John Brown and Beasley are cemented as the X and slot receivers for this offense.  Who plays the Z is very much in doubt this late in the pre-season and it's doubtful Zay is that guy after recent performances.  If that is the case, no one on the roster right now strikes me as a suitable starter.  

 

 

[SectionC3]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I just dont see them giving up on Foster after how he played the last 7 games last year.  He's a 2nd year player, cheap, and has more upside than other WR on this team.  

 

But hey, I never thought a guy like Karlos Williams would get cut either after his rookie year, but it was Karlos the man who got himself cut.  So maybe Foster has rubbed the coaches the wrong way...but still I think they would have played him a lot more like they did Zay last night if he was on the bubble to try and boost his trade value.  Just my 2 cents

I think you might be on to something with Foster's attitude.  When breaking camp McDermott made a comment about liking the attitudes of "most" of the players.  So apparently there's a couple of guys who are rubbing him the wrong way.  I assume if they were JAGs they would have been gone by then.  And I recall reading camp reports of Foster moping when he was with the 2s.  

 

Putting aside the fact that Foster likely would get claimed on waivers, the problem with cutting him is that it removes a big chunk of our top-end speed at that position.  We went through this last year - the "catch radius" and "hands" guys didn't work so well for Josh, but when we put more speed in the lineup (Foster, even Thompson) things opened up a lot for him.  Cutting Foster leaves Brown as the only real burner.  Not so sure that's a great idea.  (I guess maybe McKenzie could fill that role, but I don't think he's been used like that.) 

 

If all that is true, maybe it comes down to Zay v Foster for the last spot.  Zay earned hardest worker in the offseason, and it's going to be hard to cut a guy like that for an attitude problem.  It's a dilemma for sure.  Maybe they go light at RB and try to go with 7 WR for a couple of weeks to see how things shake out.  

 

On that point, I think we may end up keeping 9 OL with the way Bates has played and the nagging injuries at that position in camp, which makes it tough to get a 7th WR on the roster.  Figure 2QB, 3TE (Sweeney, Knox, Smith; Kroft to PUP), 9 OL (Dawkins, Spain, Morse, Long, Ford, Nyseke, Feliciano, Bates, Teller/Boettger), 4 RB (McCoy, Gore, Singletary, DiMarco), and then maybe it could be justified until Kroft returns.  I don't know that we need Yeldon -- to me Singletary makes him redundant.  Perry is a different matter - not sure who's going to play teams.  On the other hand, covering kicks isn't as important as it used to be.  No matter, it's a tough call. 

[ColoradoBills]

15 minutes ago, CLTbills said:

Brown, Beasley, Zay, Roberts, Duke, and McKenzie. 

 

I think its been all but settled at this point, especially after another great performance from Duke this week.

 

Those could be the 6.  Lot's of posters talking about Fosters long term upside but I wonder how much Beane is thinking about that.

Next year is supposedly a deep WR draft and the Bills will likely take a good one.

I'm starting to think they keep the WRs that they believe will be contributors this year and revisit this whole WR thing next year.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

This feels wide open.

 

Duke Williams

The clear winner from Friday night and the seemingly clear sixth WR right now (or fifth?) is Williams, who outmuscled a Lions defender for a touchdown catch on Friday night. Not only that, he played 37 snaps, the most on the team, and played with all three QBs. That’s right, he received first-team reps in ed zone work with Josh Allen. (Sorry, Robert Foster.) He caught all three targets, is a willing blocker, and hasn’t fumbled yet. I was the first to tamp down the love for Williams when he was signed from the CFL saying it was going to be a long road but he’s steadily navigated that lane to get into this position.

 

Isaiah McKenzie

I think McKenzie is the next guy up right now and if Buffalo keeps seven receivers, he could find a way onto the 53-man roster, but it would be hard for him to see the 46-man game day squad. He saw only one snap on Friday (incidentally it was a gadget play where he scored a touchdown) just like the previous week where he only saw one play. That’s not how the coaches operate with guys they think could make a big impact. He muffed a punt, too. At this point, he’s probably on the outside looking in in favor of a special teams contributor like Maurice Alexander or Senorise or a guy with more upside at another position.

[CLTbills]

6 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Those could be the 6.  Lot's of posters talking about Fosters long term upside but I wonder how much Beane is thinking about that.

Next year is supposedly a deep WR draft and the Bills will likely take a good one.

I'm starting to think they keep the WRs that they believe will be contributors this year and revisit this whole WR thing next year.

As much as we hear from the coaching staff that nobody is ever GIVEN a spot, every spot is earned and every spot is a competition, no matter who you are, I’d like to know how they’d sell keeping Foster over McKenzie or Duke

[ColoradoBills]

4 minutes ago, CLTbills said:

As much as we hear from the coaching staff that nobody is ever GIVEN a spot, every spot is earned and every spot is a competition, no matter who you are, I’d like to know how they’d sell keeping Foster over McKenzie or Duke

 

That's why I think some are using 7 WRs kept as an option which I don't see happening.

It will be a tough call for McDermott and Beane but I agree with you, the best guys playing today (in their opinion) will be kept.

[klos63]

15 minutes ago, CLTbills said:

As much as we hear from the coaching staff that nobody is ever GIVEN a spot, every spot is earned and every spot is a competition, no matter who you are, I’d like to know how they’d sell keeping Foster over McKenzie or Duke

based on what Foster did last year should go towards earning a spot. Just like John Brown will be starting based on what he has done in the past, not in this preseason.

[CLTbills]

17 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

That's why I think some are using 7 WRs kept as an option which I don't see happening.

It will be a tough call for McDermott and Beane but I agree with you, the best guys playing today (in their opinion) will be kept.

Agreed. If they keep 7, Foster makes it. But at 6, I don’t think he should. I think he has performed the 7th best.

 

[ColoradoBills]

6 minutes ago, klos63 said:

based on what Foster did last year should go towards earning a spot. Just like John Brown will be starting based on what he has done in the past, not in this preseason.

 

Brown has shown his worth in training camp and he is an established WR in the league.

Brown is not his competition, McKenzie, Duke, Ray Ray are his competition.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Here's my take on the WR group.

 

You have three definite keepers: Brown, Beasley and Roberts as a return man and 4th/5th WR

 

Assuming like most teams they keep 6 WR you have 4 guys competing for three slots.  Reality too is on game day only 5 will be active unless one or two of their starters is somewhat nicked up, then may dress six.

 

So you have 4 guys each bringing a somewhat unique trait:

 

Foster, speed, Browns backup

Mckenzie ST play and gadget plays

Jones Incumbent starter and most game time experience

Williams Size

 

To me the one most expendable is Foster as he's basically a clone of Brown and doesn't bring anything different.  If you do keep him on the 53, unless Brown were to get hurt, he may not even dress for games as the other three each bring something unique to the table.  Foster is just an identical back up.

 

It also could be why you're not seeing much of Foster.  Last year he appeared to have some motivation issues, only after he was cut and returned did he work out.  So now the Bills sign Brown, basically taking his spot.  Maybe he's now back to the moping phase again while the others are out there making an impression?

 

Not saying they shouldn't keep Williams, but do need to be reminded for perspective, he has looked strong the past two games, but is doing it against guys both for and against that half won't even be on an NFL roster in a week.  However for that same reason I wouldn't cut Jones to keep Williams either as some are suggesting. 

 

You want Williams on the roster, cut one of the others instead and that leads me back to Foster.

[Just Joshin']

52 minutes ago, CLTbills said:

I agree with you, to a point. I don’t think they’d “give up” on him either, but can you say he’s legitimately out-performed any of the six I listed since the start of camp? If they keep 7, I’d say keep him. But if we’re going on the premise that they’re keeping 6, I don’t see him as a top 6 performer thus far through camp.

 

How would you justify cutting the guys who have been performing for a guy who hasn’t?

 

Your premise is 6 but last year they had 5 to open the year.  I suspect 6 also but if they go with 4 TEs then WR will suffer.

[Artem Lipatov]

Foster had bad camp last year too. But he shifts another gear in games that really matter. I would not exchanged him for guys who are good in preseason games. But I really like McKenzie and especially Duke. Duke is best of all in red zone .  I would  leave 7 and competition in regular season would continue. If to leave 6 - the odd man is Zay. He had a lot of drops and never was such electric player like Foster

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

j 

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

Every coach utilizes preseason differently.  

The idea that Game 3 is the "dress rehearsal" for the regular season doesn't always apply.

 

The coaches have been talking up Zay Jones and his versatility all offseason.  I think the reason he played well into the second half, was because they wanted to give him actual game reps out of the slot (which he isn't going to do with Cole Beasley on the field).  I would be absolutely shocked if Jones gets cut.  To me, he is absolutely safe - along with John Brown, Beasley, Robert Foster and Andre Roberts.

 

I agree that WR#6 comes down to Isaiah McKenzie, Duke Williams and Ray Ray McCloud.  My guess is that McKenzie has the leg-up in this competition, but they are going to have a really tough time letting Williams go after his performance the last two weeks.  It felt like they wanted to give him a chance to earn his place, and he's stepped up big.  They may be forced into keeping 7 receivers.  McCloud hasn't stood out in preseason games, and he's still eligible for the practice squad.  He's on the outside looking in.

 

 

 

Snap count in game 3 is the most easily twisted to fit a narrative stat I can imagine 

 

lots of snaps cause hes the leader 

 

lots of snaps cause you are showcasing a trade

 

lots of snaps to see if he can dig out of a hole

 

no snaps cause you are about to trade him

 

no snaps cause he’s already on the inside

 

no snaps cause he’s a bum 

 

you can fit darn near any argument you want around it. Which is great for a meaningless tweet to stir up some conversation and build social media presence. What it does t do is give meaningful insight by itself 

 

6 minutes ago, Artem Lipatov said:

Foster had bad camp last year too. But he shifts another gear in games that really matter. I would not exchanged him for guys who are good in preseason games. But I really like McKenzie and especially Duke. Duke is best of all in red zone .  I would  leave 7 and competition in regular season would continue. If to leave 6 - the odd man is Zay. He had a lot of drops and never was such electric player like Foster

 

 

 

He was also really bad when it mattered. If anything, down the stretch when it mattered least he played best. 

[folz]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

1. Zay - While Zay started with the ones, it seems like they aren't clear on what to do with him and I think they are really pondering both his role, and maybe place on this team.  You don't risk a sure "starter" on the field in the 2nd half of a preseason game, especially when you have other guys to evaluate for the roster.  
   1. My Opinion:  Zay's "presumed" starter role is in serious jeopardy and may have already slipped out of his hands like a Josh Allen TD strike.  And if he does officially fall out of the starter conversation, then his role and place on the team gets more shaky.  And its possible they ran him in the 2nd half to try and get him involved to maybe try and boost some potential trade value too considering he had done mostly nothing in the first 2 games other than dropping a TD strike from Josh.

 

I'm not saying Zay has lit it up in the preseason or anything, but it is somewhat disingenuous to say that Zay has done nothing except for dropping that TD (where he was about to be lit up by the way). He has had 5 receptions for 77 yards in the preseason. And 4 of those 5 receptions were for first downs. As comparison, John Brown has had 3 receptions for 45 yards, for instance. Should he be cut for doing nothing in the preseason? I still think Zay is on the team, but I'll admit that him playing that long last night did make me for the first time question his role if not his spot on the team.

 

I had always hoped that Duke would make this team, but was losing that hope earlier in camp. But that TD from Barkley showed why it might be nice to have a big guy on the team (besides our TEs).

 

Robert Foster is the biggest mystery of camp. Thought he was a lock from day one, but now I'm not so sure. What the heck is going on there? Maybe it was one of those 2nd year players who after a bit of success his rookie year, thought he had arrived and so didn't put enough work in in the offseason (kind of like Dawkins last year). We just don't have enough information at this point to know what the coaches are thinking of him.

 

Props to Isiah McKenzie. At the start of camp, I didn't think he'd have much of a chance (despite some nice play last year). But, other than his muff last night, he has played really well, when given the opportunity in the preseason games. 

 

RayRay apparently practiced well early on, but I don't think he's shown enough in the games. Maybe another year on the practice squad for McCloud.

 

 

So, I'm going with Brown, Beasley, Zay, Roberts, McKenzie, and Duke (at this point). With Foster being the wild card. If they keep 7 he's in. If it's a fight for the 6th slot and the coaches are planning to keep Foster, then maybe it is McKenzie who goes, since between Roberts, Beasley, and Brown, you already have most of what McKenzie would offer. He'd be nice to have in case of injury, but he's probably not getting many snaps if everyone is healthy. I guess the question is if Roberts gets hurt, do we have someone to return kicks without either Isiah or RayRay?

 

[Iverwig]

I like Zay but he is not deserving of a roster spot over Isaiah just from what I’ve seen in preseason games. Ray Ray and Zay should be the odd men out. 

No specific order:

Beasley, Brown, Duke, Isaiah, Foster, Roberts 

 

With that said I think they keep Zay and Isaiah gets cut.