Barnwell - Realistic 2019 goals for the NFL's 10 worst teams

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

the only thing I can say to this and articles similar in context, as well as the naysayers on this board is that the bills have to go out, win games and make the postseason. being irrelevant for two decades gives any writer reason to be negative about the bills. hell, 9-7 and a post season game and breaking the 17 year streak, really, to those outside of the franchise, was pretty much meaningless. I myself was not at all impressed with a taylor led offense that could only manage to score 3 points. it was great to break the streak, it was just too bad the bills didn't have a capable QB to get the job done. I know, it wasn't all on taylor but he certainly didn't help.

 

no, I really can't blame the writers negative approach toward the bills. what I would like to see and of course I'm hoping along with all bills fans is that they go out there and prove all the naysayers wrong, that would be awesome.

 

until then, articles like this one will continue to be printed.

 

So what your saying is these writers base everything on where you were and not what you are now. The Bills could assemble the greatest roster in history and it's still "meh" because we've always been meh. So why do we need them to tell us anything? We can just look at last year's standings.

59 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

We upgraded with a lot of above average talent, respective of their role on the team.  No "splash" signings and half the analysts think Allen is Jamarcus Russell, so here we are with these articles.

 

It shows A) It's time to put up or shut up for this team and B) Journalists are lazy.

 

We're building a team.  I'd rather have a massively upgraded roster in terms of being complete, with depth, than have thrown a bunch of money at Le'Veon Bell and CJ Mosley.

 

Josh Allen has all the weapons necessary to change the Josh Allen narrative amongst his haters this year. 

 

In terms of journalists being lazy..  They don't seem to care about the Roberts, Kroft, Feliciano, Nsehke, Spain, Morse, K Johnson, J Brown, Beasley signings as much as they do 2 or 3 names they recognize.

 

 

Exactly. They can't, or won't, look at all 32 teams close enough. So they follow the favorites and pull stuff out for the rest.

Edited August 22, 2019 by PromoTheRobot

[Buffalo Junction]

24 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

It really comes down to Flacco. He may well surprise everyone and have a good season. I've always felt he's a pretty good QB (not great; pretty good). He does represent an upgrade for them if nothing else. 

Flacco is a considerable upgrade. I think the Broncos still might be screwed because they play the NFC North. We’ll see how it turns out though since the NFCN winner can easily be decided by player availability: Rodgers, Cook & Griffen, etc. Should be fun to watch, and I expect a few shootouts coupled with unexpected defensive battles. 

[PlayoffsPlease]

Every article written this entire century saying the Bills wont win a playoff game has been correct so far.  Not sure why people are miffed about this article. 

[Stank_Nasty]

hows this for a  "next gen" outlook... the bills were just under .500 (5-6) in games that allen started. this involved a stout defense and a green rookie running around for his life like a chicken with his head cut off. one would think if the defense even just holds serve and the green qb even just progresses a bit that it would equate to more wins than losses.

 

take the comp % and blow it out your a**, barnwell.

[PetermansRedemption]

1 hour ago, section122 said:

 

The Lions D-Line is amazing.  They are going to give people a lot of problems.  They are my surprise team pick of the year.  They signed Trey Flowers and Mike Daniels to the d-line adding to Romeo Okwara who had his best season yet last year, Damon Harrison who is one of if not the best run stuffing nt in the game, and a couple of Alabama d-lineman in Hand and Robinson.  They've got pass rush and run stopping strength.

 

If Kerryon Johnson can stay healthy they should have a good offense and (finally) be able to run the ball to help Stafford out.

You can paint this type of optimistic picture for every team in the league though. You could even do it for the Cardinals. 

[co_springs_billsfan]

29 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I see it the same way.  What sportswriters/fans and even board members have to ask is two simple question.

 

1.)  Will the Buffalo Bills resemble last years team from the first 9 games or the final 7 games?

I'm personally not going to split all the stats but I am pretty sure if someone did it would show 2 different teams.

From the team record (2-7 vs. 4-3) right down line to offensive output and scoring (even with an injured Hauschka).

 

2.) Comparing the base Buffalo Bills team from last year, have they improved more or less from the average NFL team?

Compared to last year this years offense has a fair chance to be significantly improved compared to the average team.

Defensively it should have better depth and will likely benefit from a consistent roster.

The overall play of the Special Teams is still debatable.

 

I see the floor of this team reasonably as an 8-8 team with a ceiling a good bit higher.

Any sportswriter who sees the Buffalo Bills as a bottom 10 team has not done their job at all.

 

 

Agreed.

 

You would think that the most basic statistical analysis should be wins/losses.  In games Josh Allen started and finished he went 5-5.  5-6 if you include the Texans game that he did not finish and I think he would have won if he hadn't been injured.  So if Josh Allen was *so* terrible and went basically .500 last year, why is the projection so low for him this year?  I'm not saying Josh Allen was amazing last year.  I'm saying given that he didn't play particularly well and he managed to win half his games. 

 

Sidenote: Darnold was 4-9 in 2018 in games started/finished.

[ngbills]

2 hours ago, Bray Wyatt said:

I dont see the Lions or Broncos as more likely to make the playoffs than us

Flacco and Stafford. 

[Lurker]

ESPN has become irrelevant from anything more than a scores and video replay service...

[Jay_Fixit]

2 hours ago, Bray Wyatt said:

I dont see the Lions or Broncos as more likely to make the playoffs than us

I put the Broncos at 0%.

 

Chiefs and Chargers in their division. Plus their offense is meh. Outside of Lindsay (Sutton/Hamilton/Freeman aren’t there yet) they won’t scare anyone.

 

Flacco is basically a taller Keenum.

 

The Broncos.

 

lol.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

12 minutes ago, co_springs_billsfan said:

Agreed.

 

You would think that the most basic statistical analysis should be wins/losses.  In games Josh Allen started and finished he went 5-5.  5-6 if you include the Texans game that he did not finish and I think he would have won if he hadn't been injured.  So if Josh Allen was *so* terrible and went basically .500 last year, why is the projection so low for him this year?  I'm not saying Josh Allen was amazing last year.  I'm saying given that he didn't play particularly well and he managed to win half his games. 

 

Sidenote: Darnold was 4-9 in 2018 in games started/finished.

 

Darnold had some really strong games, and some stinkers.  Both Allen and Darnold had 4 sub 50% comp% games.  Darnold went over 300 once, Allen did not.  Similar INT%.  Both sub 7 YPA.  Both had poor rushing games (Buffalos rushing offense is propped up by Allen's scrambles).  Darnold did have 2 games over 75% comp, and and 6 over 60% - Allens not touching him there.  I'd give edges to the Jets in oline and receivers though.  Anderson is better than anybody we had, Enunwa too probably.  We didnt dump benjamin and holmes until halfway through the year.  

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

53 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

So what your saying is these writers base everything on where you were and not what you are now. The Bills could assemble the greatest roster in history and it's still "meh" because we've always been meh. So why do we need them to tell us anything? We can just look at last year's standings.

what are they now promo? what have they accomplished so far? sure, on paper the future may look bright but until they win games, consistently, no one is going to write anything positive. you and I know what they have been doing/building but even we have no clue, yet.

 

honestly, they're really not telling us anything we don't already know, or should I clarify, unknown at this point.

 

win, just win and it should shut them up, should.

[PromoTheRobot]

7 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

what are they now promo? A team trending upward

 

what have they accomplished so far? Looking good in preseason and camp

 

sure, on paper the future may look bright but until they win games, consistently, no one is going to write anything positive. you and I know what they have been doing/building but even we have no clue, yet. You're making my point.

 

honestly, they're really not telling us anything we don't already know, or should I clarify, unknown at this point.

 

win, just win and it should shut them up, should.

 

[K-9]

1 hour ago, dneveu said:

 

That guy who completed less than 50% of passes for a sub 6 YPA with the 13% sack rate last year?  We got pick #65 for that guy AND his terrible contract.  

 

Every evaluation of QBs that doesn't include sack rate bothers me.  Allens being sacked 21 times in weeks 1-6 (13% - HORRIBLE) and 7 times in games 11-16 (3.7% - basically brady's % last year).  Completion percentage is your percentage of passes complete vs. incomplete - but if you dont factor in sacks it makes no sense.  They're WORSE than incompletions and almost as bad as turnovers.   

 

Mariota completed 68% of his passes a year ago... but he also had an 11.3% sack percentage.  Excluding scrambles he was sacked 42 times on 370 drop backs.  If you just converted those all to incompletions he'd have a 61% completion percentage and a sub 7 YPA.  Watson was sacked 62 times and if you factor in the 384 yards lost, and include those as attempts... his YPA is 6.66.  I just think its annoying that they dont mention it. 

Interesting stuff. 

 

On the matter of subtracting yardage totals for sacks, since that’s already done for the team passing totals and a sack can’t always be attributed to the QB, I think it’s fair as is. 

 

But it’s strange that while sacks count towards team passing yards lost, they aren’t considered a pass attempt. 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

Just now, PromoTheRobot said:

 

so accomplishing on paper should make the team relevant? come on man. use some common sense here. they couldn't give two ***** whats on paper and frankly, neither do I.

 

 

just show me the baby, JUST WIN!!

[berg1029]

Barnwell says:

Quote

Allen was excellent as a scrambler, but he was far worse as a passer than predecessor Tyrod Taylor

 

 

I don't think I've ever read something from Barnwell that hasn't mentioned how the Bills shouldn't have let go of Tyrod

Edited August 22, 2019 by berg1029

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

21 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Interesting stuff. 

 

On the matter of subtracting yardage totals for sacks, since that’s already done for the team passing totals and a sack can’t always be attributed to the QB, I think it’s fair as is. 

 

But it’s strange that while sacks count towards team passing yards lost, they aren’t considered a pass attempt. 

 

It's an attribute that doesn't seem to ding QBs, just offensive lines.  It's typically a result of holding the ball too long.  Scramblers do tend to have higher sack rates and a lot of it can be offset with running ability - but sacks are like holding penalties... basically drive killers.

[Billzfan23]

2 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

They made the splash signings though.  Bell, Mosley, Crowder, Kalil - and they drafted quinnen williams at 3 who is supposed to be a stud. 

 

Pundits loved darnold pre-draft, and love him post-draft.  Everyone hates allen cuz reasons.  I dont hate the analytical look at him because numbers dont lie (except the 4% drop rate... that just seems wrong with benjamin on the team for several weeks) - but i do think you have to look at him and see that there was some development from beginning to end of the year.  

 

My biggest issue with the allen "haters" isn't that that they think he may not be a good QB, or that he may never develop.  My issue - They actively root for him to fail... so they can be right

FOUR percent drop rate?

2 hours ago, dneveu said:

(except the 4% drop rate... that just seems wrong with benjamin on the team for several weeks)

 

 

 

[K-9]

3 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

It's an attribute that doesn't seem to ding QBs, just offensive lines.  It's typically a result of holding the ball too long.  Scramblers do tend to have higher sack rates and a lot of it can be offset with running ability - but sacks are like holding penalties... basically drive killers.

Drive killers indeed. You can’t play consistent offense from behind the chains. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, K-9 said:

Drive killers indeed. You can’t play consistent offense from behind the chains. 

 

Turnover differential is like the most common predictor of success, but Here are the top 10 teams in fewest sacks allowed:

 

Indy, NO, NE, Pitt, KC, Car, Balt,Chicago, LAR, Denver, LAC

 

Going by yards

NO, Indy, NE, Balt, Pitt, KC, Chicago, LAR, LAC, Tampa bay

 

Seems kind of important - and upgrading the o-line isn't the only thing that's going to limit it.  

[BillsVet]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

So much of this comes down to whether you think Allen is better than Darnold or vice versa. I like Allen, but I always liked Darnold more, and I think Darnold is going to be very good. That's not to say that Allen won't be very good! But I think most observers see a lot more in Darnold than they do in Allen, at least at this point. And that's sensible. I also continue to strongly believe that the Bills loved Darnold and would have loved to have taken him. 

 

Bottom line: the Jets have their problems, but winning and losing depends so much on QB play/talent. That's why people aren't as down on the Jets as some of us here think they should be.

 

Some on this board were apoplectic when NYJ traded 3 second round picks to move up to 3.  Yet, Buffalo effectively traded from 21 to 7 to pick Allen using Cordy Glenn to move to 12 and then 2 seconds to TB for 7.  Both NYJ and Buffalo needed a lot of draft capital to make that move, yet at this point people have long forgotten the price.

 

I say this because offense is the name of the game and, as you say, QB play is a majority of that.  Which is why I don't understand all the resources Buffalo has used on their defense.  

 

The Jets understood, albeit with a HC who has a losing record, that offense is where it's at and you need a HC to be offense-first.  McD has never embraced that and we're about to see if he's willing to change his spots. 

 

 

Edited August 22, 2019 by BillsVet