Barnwell - Realistic 2019 goals for the NFL's 10 worst teams

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

[Bray Wyatt]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

I don't have a strong opinion about Detroit. It all comes down to Stafford, who is the second best QB in that division. I could see them getting in because of that and a very good defensive front, and I could see them going 6-10. Fwiw, I thought that Patricia had some great defensive game plans last season (although they were really inconsistent). His scheme was the first to shut down Josh Allen's run game by flooding the shallow zones on pass plays, and he wrote the book on slowing down the Rams even though Detroit lost that game. He also had a great game plan against NE, who Detroit thrashed. 

 

I am not trying to knock Detroit, and I thought Patricia settled down as a HC after a rough start, they just have a much tougher road to get to the playoffs than we do imo

[PlayoffsPlease]

To be fair, no one in the Bills organization is willng so far to say success in 2019 means a playoff berth. if Beane, McDermott and Pegulas won't say it, why should ESPN think it?

Edited August 22, 2019 by PlayoffsPlease

[MiltonWaddams]

Just now, PlayoffsPlease said:

To be fair, no one in the Bills organization is will so far to say success in 2019 means a playoff berth. if Beane, McDermott and Pegulas won't say it, why should ESPN think it?

Isn’t the team mantra “Playoff Caliber “?

[SCBills]

4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Barnwell watches football. He's a good analyst, and he backed up his argument with evidence. I'm more bullish on the Bills than him, but it is the case that the Bills offense was truly abysmal last season and that the QB had accuracy issues. Assuming everything is going to change for the better is what homers do. 

 

I mean, is it though?... 

 

We had a rookie QB, who was the most raw of all QB's, he played dramatically better towards the end of the season and now is entering his second year with a full camp behind him and an upgraded OL, WR, TE and RB situation.  Nevermind the fact that, by team-building/cap design, he played, as a rookie, on one of the most talent deficient offenses in the NFL last year. 

 

Defense is a Top 10 candidate, with only the loss of Kyle Williams, but the additions of Ed Oliver and Kevin Johnson, along with guys getting healthy and other talented guys entering their 2nd/3rd years in the league.

 

With the game being a war of attrition at times, we've also become one of the deeper teams in the NFL.   It's hard pressed to find a position that we'd be left too wounded if a guy missed some time.

[Chicken Boo]

1 hour ago, Bray Wyatt said:

I dont see the Lions or Broncos as more likely to make the playoffs than us

 

The Broncos have a stout defense and more talent on offense than the Bills. 

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, Bray Wyatt said:

 

I am not trying to knock Detroit, and I thought Patricia settled down as a HC after a rough start, they just have a much tougher road to get to the playoffs than we do imo

Fair enough. I look at the Bills, and given my worry that they'll go 3-3 in the division, the road looks pretty tough: games against Dallas (at Dallas on Thanksgiving), Philly, at Pittsburgh, at Cleveland, Baltimore, and at Tennessee are all tough on paper. All had winning records last season except Cleveland, which went 7-8-1 and was playing really well in the second half. Plus Cleveland upgraded their already impressive talent.  They have to go 3-3 in those games and hope they sweep the rest. It's not easy.

2 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

I mean, is it though?... 

 

We had a rookie QB, who was the most raw of all QB's, he played dramatically better towards the end of the season and now is entering his second year with a full camp behind him and an upgraded OL, WR, TE and RB situation.  Nevermind the fact that, by team-building/cap design, he played, as a rookie, on one of the most talent deficient offenses in the NFL last year. 

 

Defense is a Top 10 candidate, with only the loss of Kyle Williams, but the additions of Ed Oliver and Kevin Johnson, along with guys getting healthy and other talented guys entering their 2nd/3rd years in the league.

 

With the game being a war of attrition at times, we've also become one of the deeper teams in the NFL.   It's hard pressed to find a position that we'd be left too wounded if a guy missed some time.

Don't get me wrong - I like what the Bills have done and think they have a shot at 10-6. It's just a tough road ahead. 

[Bray Wyatt]

4 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

The Broncos have a stout defense and more talent on offense than the Bills. 

 

I dont see it, plus 4 games against the chiefs and chargers

[ColoradoBills]

3 minutes ago, co_springs_billsfan said:

I read a bunch of statistics but nothing that indicated a single minute of football was watched.

 

I see it the same way.  What sportswriters/fans and even board members have to ask is two simple question.

 

1.)  Will the Buffalo Bills resemble last years team from the first 9 games or the final 7 games?

I'm personally not going to split all the stats but I am pretty sure if someone did it would show 2 different teams.

From the team record (2-7 vs. 4-3) right down line to offensive output and scoring (even with an injured Hauschka).

 

2.) Comparing the base Buffalo Bills team from last year, have they improved more or less from the average NFL team?

Compared to last year this years offense has a fair chance to be significantly improved compared to the average team.

Defensively it should have better depth and will likely benefit from a consistent roster.

The overall play of the Special Teams is still debatable.

 

I see the floor of this team reasonably as an 8-8 team with a ceiling a good bit higher.

Any sportswriter who sees the Buffalo Bills as a bottom 10 team has not done their job at all.

 

 

[dave mcbride]

Just now, Bray Wyatt said:

 

I dont see it, plus 4 games against the chiefs and chargers

It really comes down to Flacco. He may well surprise everyone and have a good season. I've always felt he's a pretty good QB (not great; pretty good). He does represent an upgrade for them if nothing else. 

[Bray Wyatt]

5 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Fair enough. I look at the Bills, and given my worry that they'll go 3-3 in the division, the road looks pretty tough: games against Dallas (at Dallas on Thanksgiving), Philly, at Pittsburgh, at Cleveland, Baltimore, and at Tennessee are all tough on paper. All had winning records last season except Cleveland, which went 7-8-1 and was playing really well in the second half. Plus Cleveland upgraded their already impressive talent.  They have to go 3-3 in those games and hope they sweep the rest. It's not easy.

Don't get me wrong - I like what the Bills have done and think they have a shot at 10-6. It's just a tough road ahead. 

 

Yeah that is definitely a tough stretch of games for us (Detroit also plays the NFCE this year, could give us a good barometer as to where we stand compared to them). 

[26TrapDraw]

33 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

We upgraded with a lot of above average talent, respective of their role on the team.  No "splash" signings and half the analysts think Allen is Jamarcus Russell, so here we are with these articles.

 

It shows A) It's time to put up or shut up for this team and B) Journalists are lazy.

 

We're building a team.  I'd rather have a massively upgraded roster in terms of being complete, with depth, than have thrown a bunch of money at Le'Veon Bell and CJ Mosley.

 

Josh Allen has all the weapons necessary to change the Josh Allen narrative amongst his haters this year. 

 

In terms of journalists being lazy..  They don't seem to care about the Roberts, Kroft, Feliciano, Nsehke, Spain, Morse, K Johnson, J Brown, Beasley signings as much as they do 2 or 3 names they recognize.

 

Yes Sir. I watched Cole Beasley draw a linebacker in zone coverage all night against the Panthers. There's not a LB in the league who can stay with him. The best Part of that is that Allen knows it. We are about to see why Brady and Company had so much success with their offense. We will move the chains effectively this year and I believe we will see it tomorrow night .

[Bray Wyatt]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

It really comes down to Flacco. He may well surprise everyone and have a good season. I've always felt he's a pretty good QB (not great; pretty good). He does represent an upgrade for them if nothing else. 

 

Possible for sure, and def an upgrade based on last year, but Flacco needs to rebound after several lack luster seasons since his SB. Maybe he just needed a change of scenery.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

14 minutes ago, Phil The Thrill said:

Bill Barnwell comes from the Mike Schopp school of hating on the Bills for getting rid of Tyrod Taylor

 

That guy who completed less than 50% of passes for a sub 6 YPA with the 13% sack rate last year?  We got pick #65 for that guy AND his terrible contract.  

 

Every evaluation of QBs that doesn't include sack rate bothers me.  Allens being sacked 21 times in weeks 1-6 (13% - HORRIBLE) and 7 times in games 11-16 (3.7% - basically brady's % last year).  Completion percentage is your percentage of passes complete vs. incomplete - but if you dont factor in sacks it makes no sense.  They're WORSE than incompletions and almost as bad as turnovers.   

 

Mariota completed 68% of his passes a year ago... but he also had an 11.3% sack percentage.  Excluding scrambles he was sacked 42 times on 370 drop backs.  If you just converted those all to incompletions he'd have a 61% completion percentage and a sub 7 YPA.  Watson was sacked 62 times and if you factor in the 384 yards lost, and include those as attempts... his YPA is 6.66.  I just think its annoying that they dont mention it. 

[JESSEFEFFER]

6 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

That's i think the biggest thing with him.  Nobody watched him play, especially at the end of the year.  

 

After NP failed in game 1,  it was sink or swim for Josh.  Imo, most of the time he was doing the doggie paddle in a cesspool which is to his credit.  He is a late bloomer in both his physical and QB brain development and an outlier in his athletic profile.  He was somewhat scrawny and slow (La Totuga!) in high school.  He did not transfer to a bigger school to create a bigger recruiting profile.

 

Everything that was working against him last year has been addressed and in some cases in major ways.  Coaching, protection, passing game weapons, running game production, 1st team practice time, playbook knowledge, everything.   His detractors won't recognize him.

[Chicken Boo]

21 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

 

I dont see it, plus 4 games against the chiefs and chargers

 

Difficult division for sure, but Phillip Lindsay, Courtland Sutton, Emmanuel Sanders and Noah Fant trump anything Buffalo has on offense.  

[JESSEFEFFER]

4 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

That guy who completed less than 50% of passes for a sub 6 YPA with the 13% sack rate last year?  We got pick #65 for that guy AND his terrible contract.  

 

Every evaluation of QBs that doesn't include sack rate bothers me.  Allens being sacked 21 times in weeks 1-6 (13% - HORRIBLE) and 7 times in games 11-16 (3.7% - basically brady's % last year).  Completion percentage is your percentage of passes complete vs. incomplete - but if you dont factor in sacks it makes no sense.  They're WORSE than incompletions and almost as bad as turnovers.   

 

Mariota completed 68% of his passes a year ago... but he also had an 11.3% sack percentage.  Excluding scrambles he was sacked 42 times on 370 drop backs.  If you just converted those all to incompletions he'd have a 61% completion percentage and a sub 7 YPA.  Watson was sacked 62 times and if you factor in the 384 yards lost, and include those as attempts... his YPA is 6.66.  I just think its annoying that they dont mention it. 

 

And if a QB manages to escape from poor protection and is able to throw the ball away (a good play not all can make) it hurts his ypa and completion%.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

 

After NP failed in game 1,  it was sink or swim for Josh.  Imo, most of the time he was doing the doggie paddle in a cesspool which is to his credit.  He is a late bloomer in both his physical and QB brain development and an outlier in his athletic profile.  He was somewhat scrawny and slow (La Totuga!) in high school.  He did not transfer to a bigger school to create a bigger recruiting profile.

 

Everything that was working against him last year has been addressed and in some cases in major ways.  Coaching, protection, passing game weapons, running game production, 1st team practice time, playbook knowledge, everything.   His detractors won't recognize him.

 

Yep - after splitting 1st team reps in camp with 2 (!!!!) other QBs in camp with a QB coach in Culley who we can all agree is probably not super well versed in the nuances of the position... he wasn't put in a position to succeed.  He had to figure it out on his own - now he gets all the reps and has a QB coach who at least PLAYED the position.  I don't know much about Dorsey, but personality wise i'm not sure he was a good fit with Newton.

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

I don't think that what Barnwell said in and of itself was too unreasonable. 

If you think about it, it's not even that unreasonable to surmise that Buffalo will be one of the 10 worst teams in the league.

Not including the Jets on the list, though....that's pretty egregious. They picked 3rd in this year's draft, have a pretty bad defensive roster overall, and just hired a head coach with a career losing record.

 

It came off as a reasoned argument but not a fully informed one. In fact most of argument is based on 2018 Josh Allen staying that way. My take is Barnwell has not seen one preseason game or read any Bills camp reports. Also downplaying our defense and weak schedule. To me it's hard not to see the Bills as a vastly improved team. But that's me.

[Bray Wyatt]

1 minute ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Difficult division for sure, but Phillip Lindsay agree, Courtland Sutton unproven and dont agree, Emmanuel Sanders getting old and coming off achilles injury and Noah Fant unproven rookie but definitely talented trump anything Buffalo has on offense.  

 

My thoughts in bold