Odds of both Daboll and Frazier being back next year

[MAJBobby]

8 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

If the Bills end up in the post season this year I think there is a pretty good chance we end up losing one or both of our coordinators next off season.

 

Frazier hasn't had a head coaching gig since 2011-13 with the Vikings.  If we put a top three defense on the field this year, which I believe is certainly possible, I think he will become a hot commodity in the league.  The Rooney Rule would help get his foot in the door for interviews where he would have a chance to impress.  He has a long coaching resume and I expect he will get another chance to be a head coach before he retires.

 

I think Daboll would be in even higher demand if we see Allen continue to develop and if this offense takes a big step forward this season.  An offensive minded coach from Belichick's coaching tree, and one who has shown he can take a raw QB prospect and help develop him, would be even more sought after in the market.

 

Success brings challenges too and one of them is holding on to your good position coaches and offensive and defensive coordinators.  That constant coaching turnover is one of the things that has made the New England run all the more impressive.  I wouldn't mind the Bills having to deal with that problem for the next twenty years or so.

 

I expect the Bills to make the playoffs this year.  If they do, I think the odds of having both Frazier and Daboll back for the start of the 2020 season is less than 50%.

 

 

 

 

 

If we are going to lose a Coordinator. Hope it is Frazier. He is just calling McDs defense. 

 

 I don’t want to lose is not Daboll but would be OK with it. But don’t think he is a risk to leave at least this year. 

 

Dorsey is the ONE I don’t want to go anywhere 

7 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

I disagree with what most people are saying here.

 

If the Bills have a good offense, Daboll will get HC opportunities right away.

 

The trend right now is up-and-coming OCs.

 

If Allen balls out, Daboll gets the added credit of being a QB whisperer.

 

Even if it was Ken Dorsey that did the work. 

Edited August 16, 2019 by MAJBobby

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I expect the Bills to make the playoffs this year.  If they do, I think the odds of having both Frazier and Daboll back for the start of the 2020 season is less than 50%.

 

 

 

Expect away. No penalty to it but very possible disappointment.

 

My guess is 70 - 80%.

 

46 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

The bottom line is that if Allen takes a big step forward this season then Daboll will be a head coach next year.  Daboll will become that most rarified of NFL coaching unicorns, "A Quarterback Whisperer"   Any team heading into the draft looking to draft a QB or a team with a young QB who is not developing like they hoped will be calling Daboll's agent for an interview.

 

Look at two of the last head coaching hires, Adam Gase, fresh off a pile of steaming dog crap in Miami, and Kliff Kingsbury who had a losing record as a college coach.  Why did they get an NFL job?  Because they are Quarterback Whisperers.  Peyton Manning went to bat for Gase and the Jets brought him in to work with Darnold.  Kingsbury helped develop Keenum, Manziel, Mayfield, and Mahomes.  Thats why the Cardinals hired him. 

 

What was Jared Goff's career outlook before Sean McVay got to the Rams?  Exactly.

 

If Allen becomes a successful QB this year, Dabs is gone.  Book it.

 

 

 

Dude, please.

 

One year does not make you a QB whisperer. It maybe gets you on people's radar. It especially doesn't make you a QB whisperer when you've had one awful year and one solid year with the current team, and particularly not when that big step is taken in the second year when many QBs take big steps, including QBs who end up failing long-term.

Edited August 16, 2019 by Thurman#1

[bigK14094]

Such outcomes depend on the performance of the Bills in their areas of resposiblity.  Frazier will succeed imho, and will be back here as long as McD is here.  He had a shot in Minn and that did not go well.  He won't get another HC in the NFL imho.   Daboll is another situation....if the Bills succeed on the O side, he could be a contender for a HC job.  My gut says not yet, however.  So, I really see him back as well unless the O fails misserably.   Based on one game this year though, I think the O in progressing.  Allen will be better but not all Pro yet.  Year 3 is a better breakout year for Allen imho.  But, I would love it if its year 2!

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

9 hours ago, Warcodered said:

I mean that does make sense for Frazier but still the Patriots have lost plenty of DC to HC jobs despite Belichick being a defensive genius.

 

 

Actually they only lost two, Crennel and now Patrica  DC to head coaching jobs and then in almost 20 years.  And with winning quite a few Super Bowls over that time.  Interesting too when you read BB's coaching tree Daboll started out as  a defensive assistant in NE, left, then came back and joined the offensive side.  There were some lower level assistants that became HC like Mangini.

 

Actually BB' coaching staff from Cleveland is much more impressive than what he's done in NE.  Members included Nick Saban, Mike Holmgrem, Jim Schwatrz, Kirk Ferentz, Tom Dimitroff, Mangini again, plus front office of Scott Pioli, Mike Lombardi, Mike Tannenbaun, and Ozzie Newsome 

 

I say only two from the defensive side, but I'm sure most will agree will soon become three once Rob Ryan ascends to the position he rightfully deserves of HC! 

[Inigo Montoya]

13 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Expect away. No penalty to it but very possible disappointment.

 

My guess is 70 - 80%.

 

 

 

Dude, please.

 

One year does not make you a QB whisperer. It maybe gets you on people's radar. It especially doesn't make you a QB whisperer when you've had one awful year and one solid year with the current team, and particularly not when that big step is taken in the second year when many QBs take big steps, including QBs who end up failing long-term.

 

Dude, please?

 

If Allen does a Trubisky this year you don’t think Daboll gets props for it?  The prevailing wisdom is that Allen isn’t going to take a big step this year.  They say Allen’s problem is accuracy and you can’t fix accuracy.

 

People around the league who make a living doing football know it was a miracle the Bills won six games last year with the talent they had to work with on offense.  A large part of that was Daboll changing things on the fly to get the most out of an offense so bereft of talent last year that only three of the eleven starters are back this year. 

 

Let me repeat that.  Only three starters on offense are back from last year.  Three.

 

Daboll has a solid reputation in this league.  If Allen leads the Bills into the playoffs this season, Daboll will be a hot name for a head coaching position.

 

If the Bills make the playoffs we’ll just have to revisit this thread at the end of the season.  Dude.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

17 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

Dude, please?

 

If Allen does a Trubisky this year you don’t think Daboll gets props for it?  The prevailing wisdom is that Allen isn’t going to take a big step this year.  They say Allen’s problem is accuracy and you can’t fix accuracy.

 

People around the league who make a living doing football know it was a miracle the Bills won six games last year with the talent they had to work with on offense.  A large part of that was Daboll changing things on the fly to get the most out of an offense so bereft of talent last year that only three of the eleven starters are back this year. 

 

Let me repeat that.  Only three starters on offense are back from last year.  Three.

 

Daboll has a solid reputation in this league.  If Allen leads the Bills into the playoffs this season, Daboll will be a hot name for a head coaching position.

 

If the Bills make the playoffs we’ll just have to revisit this thread at the end of the season.  Dude.

 

 

 

Gets props for it, yes.

 

Gets an OC job after that one year, most likely not.

 

Trubisky made a big jump, right? Did the Bears OC get a head coaching shot? Or an OC job elsewhere because he's a QB whisperer?

 

Oh, and that's nonsense that "the prevailing wisdom is that Allen isn’t going to take a big step this year.  They say Allen’s problem is accuracy and you can’t fix accuracy." They've never really fixed Cam Newton's accuracy either ... and yet I recall him having a big year or two. Plenty of people think he'll make a big step ... if you mean have a Trubisky kind of season. You're right that it's certainly not the consensus, but if there is a consensus it's that it's hard to predict how Josh will do.

 

And yes, there's some respect for Daboll in the NFL. But it's not coincidence that before Buffalo his last two NFL jobs were offensive assistant and tight ends coach. One good year is not likely to be enough.

 

 

 

 

Edited August 16, 2019 by Thurman#1

[atlbillsfan1975]

I listened to Daboll’s presser yesterday from earlier this week. He sounds pretty good and ready from a media prep and handling standpoint. I think Daboll is a good OC not great not terrible. In the interview It was shared that this year Daboll has been able to walk around during position meeting more and sit on film time. Couple reasons for this could be some hires that were made during the off-season that allowed Daboll to get position coaches in line with his philosophies and planning. The biggest thing about being able to keep a good coordinator around is the continuity. Keeping a staff in place for the most part for multiple seasons helps when a team is young like the Bills are. For that reason I hope Daboll sticks for a few more seasons , but I think he would jump at a head coach gig if offered.

Frazier is here for as long as McD wants him.

[The Jokeman]

65% 

[Inigo Montoya]

3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

Gets props for it, yes.

 

Gets an OC job after that one year, most likely not.

 

Trubisky made a big jump, right? Did the Bears OC get a head coaching shot? Or an OC job elsewhere because he's a QB whisperer?

 

Oh, and that's nonsense that "the prevailing wisdom is that Allen isn’t going to take a big step this year.  They say Allen’s problem is accuracy and you can’t fix accuracy." They've never really fixed Cam Newton's accuracy either ... and yet I recall him having a big year or two. Plenty of people think he'll make a big step ... if you mean have a Trubisky kind of season. You're right that it's certainly not the consensus, but if there is a consensus it's that it's hard to predict how Josh will do.

 

 

 

 

The Bears OC is irrelevant, Nagy runs the Bears offense, that’s why he was hired as head coach.

 

The Bears fired John Fox as head coach and brought in Nagy to coach Trubisky because they thought he could get more out of Trubisky, and he did.  It’s Nagy who turned around Trubisky.  If Allen plays great this year is McDermott getting the credit?  No, McDermott is a defensive coach, Daboll will get the credit.

 

We can revisit this after the season and see who is on target here.

[dollars 2 donuts]

If we are anywhere in the top 15 in offense Dabol is gone.  That's just the way I believe it works for Buffalo assistants even if that isn't the way it truly is in practice.

 

Other guys for other teams stick around for a bit, but success here i don't think will translate into similar results.

 

So great to hold on to Marchibroda for as long as we did.

[RochesterLifer]

10 hours ago, Augie said:

I sure do prefer the idea of them getting hired away a LOT more than the idea of firing them! It means we did some good stuff! Let’s do good stuff.....and hopefully keep our coaches. 

This would make a great bills shirt.

Gray with the Bills logo above your red lettered quote, "Let's do Good Stuff!!!"

I'm in for an XL 

[Alphadawg7]

I don’t think Frazier will be a hot candidate after one good defensive season.  He did poorly in his HC gig, and McD is gonna get a lot of credit for the D too.  So I think Frazier will need to be part of a top defense for a few seasons.

 

Dont forget when McD took over the play calling suites at halftime and the D was night and day better from that point on.  

 

Daboll however could be a red hot candidate if the offense is top 10 this season.  Between his resume under too NFL and NCAA coaches and then leading an over looked offense with a young QB so fast to a strong season will make him one of the top candidates next year if that happens.  

 

He’s also young enough to where it’s not a lock to leave and go take a HC job if he feels he can put a SB on his resume here the following year.  One thing I think he will have learned from other NE coordinator flame outs is that it’s not just about taking a HC gig, it’s about taking it when you’re ready and also taking the right job.  Otherwise, could set his career back.  So wouldn’t shock me to see him pass and stick another season or two if we were say a 11 win team and the offers were to less appealing teams.

[Captain Hindsight]

3 hours ago, Cheektowaga Chad said:

Never say a coach wont get a head coach opportunity. I mean who thought mike pettine would be hired away?

 

He was kind of a weird hire. IIRC many people were downing down interviews before Pettine got a call

 

[jwhit34]

4 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

? Daboll ‘previous stints as OC were unsuccessful ‘?? You do know he was OC for a Super Bowl & FBS Championship team prior to joining the Bills, right? Right? RIGHT??? 

I’d be interested to learn exactly what your parameters are to be considered successful. But I think he’s better at this point in his career coaching Offense, than the entire team. Then again, who really is ready to be a 1st time HC? I heard Frank Reich interview the other day from Colts camp. ‘Nothing I’ve done previously prepared me for this experience.’

OC Cleveland 2009-10, Miami 2011, KC 2012. Ranked 32nd, 29th, 22nd and 24th, respectively, in yards per game. Bills were 30th last year.

 

The Bills and Allen would have to have a KC/Mahomes type year for him to get consideration. I think they will be much better (middle of the pack on offense) but not top 5 or even top 10. 

 

[Captain Hindsight]

3 minutes ago, jwhit34 said:

OC Cleveland 2009-10, Miami 2011, KC 2012. Ranked 32nd, 29th, 22nd and 24th, respectively, in yards per game. Bills were 30th last year.

 

The Bills and Allen would have to have a KC/Mahomes type year for him to get consideration. I think they will be much better (middle of the pack on offense) but not top 5 or even top 10. 

 

His QBs in previous stints

 

Derek Anderson/Brady Quinn/Colt Mccoy/ Jake Delhomme/Seneca Wallace

Matt Moore/Chad Henne

Matt Cassel/Brady Quinn

 

Jamal Charles had 1500 yards rushing in 2012, which is pretty impressive when you look at the rest of the roster

[John from Riverside]

Both have had stabs in the NFL....both have been unsuccessful

 

I mean...anything can happen but I dont think the chances are high....on this team there is a very talented QB on offense and a D loaded with talent

 

Not sure they would WANT to leave

[DCofNC]

I really thought this was going to be a "do you fire them" thread.  I would not be shocked if the Offense does well and Daboll gets opportunities.  However, I have been pretty adamant in my previous posts, this offense is not going ro be good without Josh Allen painting an S on his chest and going nuts.  Unfortunately, the OL and WR positions have been greatly improved and still have low level starters at their core.  TE is unproven at best and the RBs are antiques or unproven.  If Daboll gets a good result, he deserves a shot at a HC position or at least a huge pay increase.

 

Frazier should have been fired this off season, when you can't make the play calls as coordinator, you should go.  He won't be hired away, but I wont be surprised if he's let go.

[ColoradoBills]

12 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Both have had stabs in the NFL....both have been unsuccessful

 

I mean...anything can happen but I dont think the chances are high....on this team there is a very talented QB on offense and a D loaded with talent

 

Not sure they would WANT to leave

 

If Daboll has a good year and the Bills are a rising team he would be wise to stick it out for another couple years before making a

move to HC.  It would give him time to refine his skills and create a large demand for his services.

 

Just jumping on a HC job for the likes of the Arizona Cardinals (example) would be a bad move.

If he sticks around he could have his pick of teams.

[DCofNC]

4 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

If Daboll has a good year and the Bills are a rising team he would be wise to stick it out for another couple years before making a

move to HC.  It would give him time to refine his skills and create a large demand for his services.

 

Just jumping on a HC job for the likes of the Arizona Cardinals (example) would be a bad move.

If he sticks around he could have his pick of teams.

I have to disagree.  There are only 32 NFL Head Coach Jobs, generally only bad teams have an opening.  If you get the shot, you better take it.  Hopefully, you go to a place with some talent and are able to draft a QB.  Thinking out loud here, there may be openings with the Giants, Cowboys (probably not, but should be), depending on how things go, Atlanta, Washington, Denver, Sand Diego.. umm maybe Buffalo.., possibly New England in Billy hangs it up, Seattle.. who knows, but if you get a shot, you gotta go.  You dont wanna be a Jim Bob Cooter who was red hot and then fell off the map. 

[Saxum]

One factor of coordinators leaving for head coaches jobs is money.  I think the Pegulas would be willing to bump salaries of coordinators (not in the outrageous Raiders range) to keep a coordinator for a year or two more so the coordinator could wait for right position rather than just taking any head coach opening they can interview for.