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Barnwell's 5 Teams Most Likely to Improve in 2019

DCOrange

By DCOrange
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jletha RFA

jletha

Posted
Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Sig1Hunter said:

Not sure, but I’m guessing it has something to do with a hypotenuse? 

It is win total based on points scored vs points against. Sometimes, especially early in a season, a teams record can be a bit misleading because of fluky occurrences but in general teams that score more and prevent getting scored on should win more. Well over time people have amassed statistics that create a correlation of points for/points against ratio and wins on average. If your team had a good ratio but had less wins that you would expect its probably because you had some really tough losses and you can expect to improve the next year as you trend towards the mean. Similarly, if you had a bad ratio but you won more games than the correlation expects you probably overachieved and you can predict that you will regress to the mean the next year.

 

Its more useful in baseball where there are more games. Sometimes in May or June a team will be below .500 but have a positive run differential. You can expect them to end up above .500 because they score more than their opponents usually. The reverse scenario also applies;

Edited by jletha
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eball
eball

So he took three 4-12 teams and two 5-11 teams — five of the eight teams who won five or fewer games last year — and said they are the most likely teams to improve?   Way to go out on that l

Malazan
Malazan

because they have Adam Gase who's presided over offense in the bottom half of the league for several years or because they have Gregg Williams whose defense have been in the bottom 3rd of the league f

eball
eball

Scott is absolutely a Jets fan.  He defends them at every turn -- on a Jets board he'd be called a homer, which is hilariously ironic.

Malazan All Pro

Malazan

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

I expect them to. I've said numerous times I think the Jets win about 10 games this year. 

 

because they have Adam Gase who's presided over offense in the bottom half of the league for several years or because they have Gregg Williams whose defense have been in the bottom 3rd of the league for the last several years on multiple different teams? Is is their level of talent on the defense that actually seems to be worse than last season? Is it Sam Darnold who had a higher interception rate than Allen? Maybe it's the Jets offensive line that ranked as badly as the Bills line did last season and the only significant addition was a guy who ranked out lower than their existing terrible lineman?

 

..but this is you so it probably comes down to "They aren't the Bills"

Edited by jeremy2020
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eball Hall of Famer

eball

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, jeremy2020 said:

 

because they have Adam Gase who's presided over offense in the bottom half of the league for several years or because they have Gregg Williams who defense have been in the bottom 3rd of the league for the last several years on multiple different teams? Is is their level of talent on the defense that actually seems to be worse than last season? Is it Sam Darnold who had a higher interception rate than Allen? Maybe it's the Jets offensive line that ranked as badly as the Bills line did last season and the only significant addition was a guy who ranked our lower than their existing terrible lineman?

 

..but this is you so it probably comes down to "They aren't the Bills"

 

Scott is absolutely a Jets fan.  He defends them at every turn -- on a Jets board he'd be called a homer, which is hilariously ironic.

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billsfan_34 All Pro

billsfan_34

Posted
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2 hours ago, DCOrange said:

For context, he's done this the past couple years and mentions that of the 11 teams he's predicted to improve in the past two years, 9 of them have improved and they've improved by an average of 4 wins. His choices are generally based on advanced metrics such as Pythagorean wins, record in close games, etc.

 

This year's teams: 

San Francisco 49ers

Carolina Panthers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New York Jets

New York Giants

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27296131/barnwell-picking-five-nfl-teams-most-likely-improve-2019

 

Well of course the Giants improve, you can’t get any worse! The Jets and Tampa? Really? 

mushypeaches RFA

mushypeaches

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, bigK14094 said:

Carolina will only get better is CAM comes back to his old self.  But, that looks pretty iffy right now, so he has that wrong imho.

 

I think Carolina is a dark horse candidate for dumpster fire team of 2019.  Cam could be just about done, they don't have a lot of talent or depth, and Riverboat Ron is one of those longer tenured coaches whose act may have grown stale

Foxx All Pro

Foxx

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Sig1Hunter said:

Not sure, but I’m guessing it has something to do with a hypotenuse? 

i'm more of a leg man myself.

Edited by Foxx
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Pine Barrens Mafia Hall of Famer

Pine Barrens Mafia

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, eball said:

 

Scott is absolutely a Jets fan.  He defends them at every turn -- on a Jets board he'd be called a homer, which is hilariously ironic.

 

I think that's been conclusively proven this offseason

 

Foxx All Pro

Foxx

Posted
Posted

Pythagorean wins

 

... The formula has also been used in pro football by football stat website and publisher Football Outsiders, where it is known as Pythagorean projection. The formula is used with an exponent of 2.37 and gives a projected winning percentage. That winning percentage is then multiplied by 16 (for the number of games played in an NFL season), to give a projected number of wins. This projected number given by the equation is referred to as Pythagorean wins.

{\displaystyle {\text{Pythagorean wins}}={\frac {{\text{points for}}^{2.37}}{{\text{points for}}^{2.37}+{\text{points against}}^{2.37}}}\times 16.}

The 2011 edition of Football Outsiders Almanac[11] states, "From 1988 through 2004, 11 of 16 Super Bowls were won by the team that led the NFL in Pythagorean wins, while only seven were won by the team with the most actual victories. Super Bowl champions that led the league in Pythagorean wins but not actual wins include the 2004 Patriots, 2000 Ravens, 1999 Rams and 1997 Broncos."

 

Although Football Outsiders Almanac acknowledges that the formula had been less-successful in picking Super Bowl participants from 2005–2008, it reasserted itself in 2009 and 2010. Furthermore, "[t]he Pythagorean projection is also still a valuable predictor of year-to-year improvement. Teams that win a minimum of one full game more than their Pythagorean projection tend to regress the following year; teams that win a minimum of one full game less than their Pythagoerean projection tend to improve the following year, particularly if they were at or above .500 despite their underachieving. For example, the 2008 New Orleans Saints went 8–8 despite 9.5 Pythagorean wins, hinting at the improvement that came with the next year's championship season." ...

JPP RFA

JPP

Posted
Posted

Giants LOL....who the hell is Eli gonna throw to?  Thought pretty much all their WR's are out for a long period of time...

C.Biscuit97 Hall of Famer

C.Biscuit97

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Barnwell is a card carrying Bills hater.

You gotta stop this PTR.  Every person who doesn’t say the Bills aren’t the best team in the NFL doesn’t hate the Bills.  

 

Barnwell is a huge nerd but for better or worse, he uses statistics to make his predictions.  The media can be super annoying but this whole thing fans have that if you don’t constantly  praise their team, you hate them, must be so annoying. 

4 hours ago, bigK14094 said:

Carolina will only get better is CAM comes back to his old self.  But, that looks pretty iffy right now, so he has that wrong imho.

They were 6-2 last year and he couldn’t throw the ball past 30 yards.  If his surgery was successful, they will be tough though the NFC South is a very hard division. 

Kirby Jackson Hall of Famer

Kirby Jackson

Posted
Posted

I think that the Bucs take a step forward. They are a fringe playoff team IMO (keep in mind I said that last year and was way off). The Jets are about a .500 team I think. That’s a pretty big step forward as well. They are a lot like us. Carolina looks no different to me. The Giants stink but have for a couple of years. They might be the worst team in football. I don’t see enough of SF to have too strong of an opinion. I guess that their DL could be good. I think that it’s reasonable to think that these 5 teams could combine to be 10 games ahead but of last year (mostly led by Jets and Bucs). 

PromoTheRobot Hall of Famer

PromoTheRobot

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You gotta stop this PTR.  Every person who doesn’t say the Bills aren’t the best team in the NFL doesn’t hate the Bills.  

 

Barnwell is a huge nerd but for better or worse, he uses statistics to make his predictions.  The media can be super annoying but this whole thing fans have that if you don’t constantly  praise their team, you hate them, must be so annoying. 

They were 6-2 last year and he couldn’t throw the ball past 30 yards.  If his surgery was successful, they will be tough though the NFC South is a very hard division. 

 

I'm not referring to this poll. I'm referring to Barnwell's history of berating the Bills and the city. (I know, I know. We deserve it, right?)

formerlyofCtown Veteran

formerlyofCtown

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, jeremy2020 said:

The giants? The Jets? The Bucs? 

 

Uhh...

Well they did get that first round QB in NY.?

6 hours ago, mushypeaches said:

 

I think Carolina is a dark horse candidate for dumpster fire team of 2019.  Cam could be just about done, they don't have a lot of talent or depth, and Riverboat Ron is one of those longer tenured coaches whose act may have grown stale

Cam is done??

Kirby Jackson Hall of Famer

Kirby Jackson

Posted
Posted

I don’t get why anyone is mad that the Bills aren’t on here? 27 teams aren’t yet some feel like it’s a shot at them? This is a weird case of that Buffalo insecurity complex. Who cares if they are there?

 

Barnwell has his opinion and it’s based on his formula. He didn’t even say that the Bills would be good or bad. He simply didn’t include them and some are taking offense. There isn’t some “anti-Bills” conspiracy out there. Michael Robinson thinks that the Bills will be good and we sent him a t-shirt!! 

 

The bottom line is that EVERYthing regarding the 2019 season at this point is a guess. Let’s not get mad at the guy that predicts 4-12 and send t-shirts to the guy that picks 12-4. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. If their opinion isn’t “your team is great” it doesn’t mean that they hate your team/city/family/etc... 

LSHMEAB Veteran

LSHMEAB

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Giants aren't better than a 6 win team, IMO. 

 

Jets went 4-12 last year. They absolutely will be better. 

 

Bucs hired an established successful guy in Arians who has a history of doing wonders with QBs. I agree they will be a lot better. 

I think the Bucs could be a HUGE surprise team if Winston can thrive in Arians scheme. Arians is a really, really good coach and that offense is stacked. I'm talking competing with the Saints for the division good.

Edited by LSHMEAB
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