jrober38 Posted September 16, 2019 Posted September 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said: Some states allow independents to vote in the primary. But this conflation is because we're talking past one another, and about two topics at once. Joe has no chance to win the general. That's a lock. Joe may win the primary, only because as we learned in 2016 it's not a fair system. Its rigged and will be rigged again to favor the establishment candidate (which Joe is -- but he's not the only one). If he survives the primary, which I doubt, he'll have zero shot to win those independents back. None. Joe isn't a great uniter. He's not a good politician. He's a puppet who has no idea how to win a presidential campaign as he's proved 2x in the past already. I think you grossly underestimate how unpopular Donald Trump is and you grossly underestimate how many voters there are that don't vote in primaries. In Iowa in 2016 roughly 350,000 votes were cast in the Democratic and Republican caucuses. In the general election, 1.4 million people voted. An increase of over 1 million people. I think Trump needs everything to go right in a year's time like it did in 2016. The Democrats in 2016 were way too arrogant in assuming Hilary would win. This time they won't make the same mistakes, and they'll pour all of their resources into flipping Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (three states Trump collectively won by roughly 70k votes). Saying Biden, who leads Trump by 10 or more points in essentially every poll, has no chance is just crazy talk at this point.
Deranged Rhino Posted September 16, 2019 Posted September 16, 2019 Just now, jrober38 said: I think you grossly underestimate how unpopular Donald Trump is and you grossly underestimate how many voters there are that don't vote in primaries. You're correct this is the crux of the issue. One of us is being lied to, tremendously. One isn't. We'll find out for sure in 2020, but I wouldn't want to be banking on anything which comes from proven liars and narrative engineers in the MSM -- which is where that whole "Trump is unpopular" stems from. There is a silent majority who is pissed and seething -- not about Trump, but about the assault on this country's philosophical foundation. 2 minutes ago, jrober38 said: In Iowa in 2016 roughly 350,000 votes were cast in the Democratic and Republican caucuses. In the general election, 1.4 million people voted. An increase of over 1 million people. Trump is going to win the general for clarity. The DNC primary is rigged and thus not as predictable. 2 minutes ago, jrober38 said: I think Trump needs everything to go right in a year's time like it did in 2016. The Democrats in 2016 were way too arrogant in assuming Hilary would win. This time they won't make the same mistakes, and they'll pour all of their resources into flipping Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (three states Trump collectively won by roughly 70k votes). They won't be too arrogant -- yet you and others (and mainly the media) keep pushing polls which show Trump's getting thumped. The same polls that were wrong/misleading the last time. The DNC is bleeding money, and being forced to spend more in states they had secured last time. The GOP is flush with twice the war chest they had last time, plus a better information outreach program to Trump supporters. Trump's gaining ground in blue states while the DNC is cratering in popularity. Trump will win in a walk in 2020. Mark it down. 4 minutes ago, jrober38 said: Saying Biden, who leads Trump by 10 or more points in essentially every poll, has no chance is just crazy talk at this point. I say believing polls which we know are cooked, being pushed by people who we now know lied to our faces for three years about Trump/Russia conspiracy, is crazy. But that's me. I go by facts and reality, not talking points or propaganda. 1
jrober38 Posted September 16, 2019 Posted September 16, 2019 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said: You're correct this is the crux of the issue. One of us is being lied to, tremendously. One isn't. We'll find out for sure in 2020, but I wouldn't want to be banking on anything which comes from proven liars and narrative engineers in the MSM -- which is where that whole "Trump is unpopular" stems from. There is a silent majority who is pissed and seething -- not about Trump, but about the assault on this country's philosophical foundation. Trump is going to win the general for clarity. The DNC primary is rigged and thus not as predictable. They won't be too arrogant -- yet you and others (and mainly the media) keep pushing polls which show Trump's getting thumped. The same polls that were wrong/misleading the last time. The DNC is bleeding money, and being forced to spend more in states they had secured last time. The GOP is flush with twice the war chest they had last time, plus a better information outreach program to Trump supporters. Trump's gaining ground in blue states while the DNC is cratering in popularity. Trump will win in a walk in 2020. Mark it down. I say believing polls which we know are cooked, being pushed by people who we now know lied to our faces for three years about Trump/Russia conspiracy, is crazy. But that's me. I go by facts and reality, not talking points or propaganda. You don't appear to have any facts or stats, or any understanding whatsoever of how a national poll works. Edited September 16, 2019 by jrober38
Deranged Rhino Posted September 16, 2019 Posted September 16, 2019 1 minute ago, jrober38 said: You don't appear to have any facts or stats, or any understanding whatsoever of how a national poll works. Incorrect. I have plenty of experience in polling and studying it’s strengths and weaknesses. I’m very involved in CA politics — I know the feelings well on both sides of the aisle from the people doing the work on the ground. On the other hand, I bet you still consume news from the MSM even after they’ve been exposed as liars. One of us will be wildly wrong. The other won’t be. 2
TakeYouToTasker Posted September 16, 2019 Posted September 16, 2019 (edited) 25 minutes ago, jrober38 said: I think you grossly underestimate how unpopular Donald Trump is and you grossly underestimate how many voters there are that don't vote in primaries. In Iowa in 2016 roughly 350,000 votes were cast in the Democratic and Republican caucuses. In the general election, 1.4 million people voted. An increase of over 1 million people. I think Trump needs everything to go right in a year's time like it did in 2016. The Democrats in 2016 were way too arrogant in assuming Hilary would win. This time they won't make the same mistakes, and they'll pour all of their resources into flipping Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (three states Trump collectively won by roughly 70k votes). Saying Biden, who leads Trump by 10 or more points in essentially every poll, has no chance is just crazy talk at this point. I think you’re reporting to confirmation biases. You think he’s wildly unpopular because he’s wildly unpopular with people you talk to, and he’s reported to be wildly unpopular by media and pop culture figures he’s wildly unpopular with. They've been saying the same things for more than three years, beating that propaganda drum publicly; but behind closed doors they’re absolutely terrified, which is why the steady stream of propaganda continues uninterrupted. To be clear, I don’t like Trump. He has a nasty authoritarian streak which would repulse me in any other environment. In a normal election cycle he’d have my “hold my nose” vote based to two issues: his war on the global and domestic modern human slave trade, and child sex slavery; and his anti-globalism. In this environment I will enthusiastically vote for him because infanticide, forced gun confiscation, the Green New Deal, open borders, free college and healthcare for illegals, guilty until proven innocent, unpersoning/deplatforming of conservatives, unisex children’s locker rooms, normalization of pedophelia, etc. are so abhorrent that I’m literally willing to shoot people over a good deal of them if push comes to shove. Covington was enlightening. Kavanaugh was enlightening. Hell yes we’re coming for your guns was enlightening. A coup attempt was enlightening. Epstein and his merry horde of kiddie ***** was enlightening. You think people see these things and say, “Ya know what, I pulled for Trump in the last cycle, and my 401k has doubled, but I just don’t want to live in a world where people who rape kids go to prison, so Democrats from now on!” That’s an insane thing to believe; and it means that you’re overlooking the overwhelming majority of the country, which is exactly what they want you to do. Edited September 16, 2019 by TakeYouToTasker 1 1 5
B-Man Posted September 16, 2019 Author Posted September 16, 2019 Since TYTT laid out the definitive answer for all the previous sidetracks, back to the debates. 1
jrober38 Posted September 17, 2019 Posted September 17, 2019 3 hours ago, TakeYouToTasker said: I think you’re reporting to confirmation biases. You think he’s wildly unpopular because he’s wildly unpopular with people you talk to, and he’s reported to be wildly unpopular by media and pop culture figures he’s wildly unpopular with. They've been saying the same things for more than three years, beating that propaganda drum publicly; but behind closed doors they’re absolutely terrified, which is why the steady stream of propaganda continues uninterrupted. To be clear, I don’t like Trump. He has a nasty authoritarian streak which would repulse me in any other environment. In a normal election cycle he’d have my “hold my nose” vote based to two issues: his war on the global and domestic modern human slave trade, and child sex slavery; and his anti-globalism. In this environment I will enthusiastically vote for him because infanticide, forced gun confiscation, the Green New Deal, open borders, free college and healthcare for illegals, guilty until proven innocent, unpersoning/deplatforming of conservatives, unisex children’s locker rooms, normalization of pedophelia, etc. are so abhorrent that I’m literally willing to shoot people over a good deal of them if push comes to shove. Covington was enlightening. Kavanaugh was enlightening. Hell yes we’re coming for your guns was enlightening. A coup attempt was enlightening. Epstein and his merry horde of kiddie ***** was enlightening. You think people see these things and say, “Ya know what, I pulled for Trump in the last cycle, and my 401k has doubled, but I just don’t want to live in a world where people who rape kids go to prison, so Democrats from now on!” That’s an insane thing to believe; and it means that you’re overlooking the overwhelming majority of the country, which is exactly what they want you to do. I'm going off the polls. When Trump took office, his disapproval rating was around 40%. After 3 months it's consistently been in the 51-56% range and his approval rating can't get above 42%. Despite what some people think. the polls in 2016 were accurate. National polls said Hilary would win by about 3 points just before the election, and she won the popular vote by 2 points. If current polls hold Trump is going to be destroyed in the next election. You can't trail by 10 points in the popular vote and have any hope of winning. With regards to savings, 58% of Americans have less than $1000 saved in the bank. They haven't seen anything double over the past 2.5 years because they don't have any money. Trump cut taxes, and with that money corporations have mostly just bought back stock and have invested hardly any of their savings into capital projects. Most of the benefits in the Trump economy have gone to corporations and the top 1%. Wages have mostly been kept in check, as has been the case for about 40 years. The stock market has done great, but most Americans have limited exposure to the markets. This upcoming election is going to be very interesting. Trump's base loved him, but a ton of people (likely more than 50% of the country) hate him. Biden (not my preference) is an easy choice for a lot of people because I think the perception is he won't screw anything up. He's not going to spook the markets, he's not going to revolutionize healthcare, etc. His platform will cater entirely to independent voters who can't stand Trump on a moral basis, and hardcore democrats will come along as well because they can't stand Trump for four more years.
snafu Posted September 17, 2019 Posted September 17, 2019 4 hours ago, jrober38 said: You don't appear to have any facts or stats, or any understanding whatsoever of how a national poll works. I think you need to look at polls state by state. It is, after all, an electoral college system. Here are two Wisconsin poll results from Wisconsin in early November, 2016. They don’t support your assertion. Both had Clinton winning. And I’d add that nobody liked Trump in 2016, either. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5976.html https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/ 1
TakeYouToTasker Posted September 17, 2019 Posted September 17, 2019 1 hour ago, jrober38 said: I'm going off the polls. When Trump took office, his disapproval rating was around 40%. After 3 months it's consistently been in the 51-56% range and his approval rating can't get above 42%. Despite what some people think. the polls in 2016 were accurate. National polls said Hilary would win by about 3 points just before the election, and she won the popular vote by 2 points. If current polls hold Trump is going to be destroyed in the next election. You can't trail by 10 points in the popular vote and have any hope of winning. With regards to savings, 58% of Americans have less than $1000 saved in the bank. They haven't seen anything double over the past 2.5 years because they don't have any money. Trump cut taxes, and with that money corporations have mostly just bought back stock and have invested hardly any of their savings into capital projects. Most of the benefits in the Trump economy have gone to corporations and the top 1%. Wages have mostly been kept in check, as has been the case for about 40 years. The stock market has done great, but most Americans have limited exposure to the markets. This upcoming election is going to be very interesting. Trump's base loved him, but a ton of people (likely more than 50% of the country) hate him. Biden (not my preference) is an easy choice for a lot of people because I think the perception is he won't screw anything up. He's not going to spook the markets, he's not going to revolutionize healthcare, etc. His platform will cater entirely to independent voters who can't stand Trump on a moral basis, and hardcore democrats will come along as well because they can't stand Trump for four more years. Polls are not used to gauge public sentiment, they’re a PsyOp used to manipulate. If you’re poll watching, you’re wrong. Further, statistics are empty. Raw population data is irrelevant, and even if it weren’t, employment across the board for minorities and women is at an all time high, and low end wage growth is accelerating. At the same time blue collar workers are directly benefitting from the economy. They have job security, and the 32% of Americans who have 401k savings are seeing their retirement benefits spike against a backdrop of perceived economic anemia in which they were told their jobs weren’t coming back. These are people who were told they didn’t matter, and were called racist #######s in the last cycle. They voted Trump anyway, have seen massive benefit for doing so, and are now being called literal Nazi’s by people who rape kids and murder infants. If you think these people have been swayed, you’re nuts. At the same time the left’s waging of raw culture war has been redpilling people en masse. One of the side effects of the culture war being waged, and the hatefulness of the left tearing down people, with their willingness to destroy lives over political disagreement, and calls to open violence... do you believe Trump supporters are extremely likely to share their views? You’re in for a rude awakening. 4
unbillievable Posted September 17, 2019 Posted September 17, 2019 Polls will be even more skewed now because only far-left liberals will answer them. Everyone else fears getting targeted by the PC mob. It's so prevalent it even got a name recently; "cancel culture." THat is what happened in 2016 and it's gotten worse since then. People went silent, and voted in secret. It's also the reason why many on the left have started to call for open elections, so they can black-list the wrong-thinkers. 3
Chef Jim Posted September 17, 2019 Posted September 17, 2019 19 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said: Again, this is from the Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/15/opinion/joe-biden.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage Joe has no chance to win. They don't want him, won't accept him as the candidate, and darn sure won't turn out for him in a general. Let me ask you a question. If he does win the nomination is there someone he could pick as his VP that could change this? 1
unbillievable Posted September 17, 2019 Posted September 17, 2019 2 hours ago, Chef Jim said: Let me ask you a question. If he does win the nomination is there someone he could pick as his VP that could change this? Obama.
Deranged Rhino Posted September 17, 2019 Posted September 17, 2019 2 hours ago, Chef Jim said: Let me ask you a question. If he does win the nomination is there someone he could pick as his VP that could change this? His campaign wanted Abrams for this reason. She rejected their offer. It has to be a woman of color to appease the racist identity politics lovers who comprise the progressive left — Harris won’t do it. Not sure there’s anyone who would.
reddogblitz Posted September 17, 2019 Posted September 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Deranged Rhino said: His campaign wanted Abrams for this reason. She rejected their offer. It has to be a woman of color to appease the racist identity politics lovers who comprise the progressive left — Harris won’t do it. Not sure there’s anyone who would. Alexandria
Deranged Rhino Posted September 17, 2019 Posted September 17, 2019 1 minute ago, reddogblitz said: Alexandria She's too young I'm pretty sure, isn't she?
reddogblitz Posted September 17, 2019 Posted September 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Deranged Rhino said: She's too young I'm pretty sure, isn't she? Good point. She is a hair under with her birthday of Oct 13, 1989 which would make her 31 and 3 months in January 2021 Maybe when Uncle Joe runs for re election? 1
DC Tom Posted September 17, 2019 Posted September 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Deranged Rhino said: His campaign wanted Abrams for this reason. She rejected their offer. It has to be a woman of color to appease the racist identity politics lovers who comprise the progressive left — Harris won’t do it. Not sure there’s anyone who would. Dammit. That means I'm going to be even more racist for not voting for a candidate who belongs to a party I'm absolutely boycotting. 1
keepthefaith Posted September 17, 2019 Posted September 17, 2019 Maxine Waters She's ready for the next step in her career. 1 1 1
LB3 Posted September 17, 2019 Posted September 17, 2019 2 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said: His campaign wanted Abrams for this reason. She rejected their offer. It has to be a woman of color to appease the racist identity politics lovers who comprise the progressive left — Harris won’t do it. Not sure there’s anyone who would. Michelle? If 44 isn't exposed beforehand they'd win pretty big with her and there's no way he'd last a full term. That's reason for her to hold her nose and accept the VP role. She'd be in the WH for a decade and the Republic would be destroyed. 1
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