Trades Before Season & Beane's Roster Building Strategy

[Alphadawg7]

Beane is a guy that is always looking to maximize value.  This was the core basis to my now infamous Zay Jones offseason thread where I felt if he could be traded in preseason if the competition was pushing him down the depth chart to a backup role instead of a starter.  

 

Fast forward to today, and I do think that is still possible, but also odds are lower given Zay has done a good job so far this offseason.  And there is a whole thread to go discuss that anyway.

 

But for me, I think there is going to certainly be some trades because Beane has a deep track record now of getting value, even value where people never thought value could be had.  I mean no one saw us getting a 2nd and a player for Sammy (talk back then was a 4th at best).  No one saw us getting the first pick in the 3rd round for TT (talk back then was a 12 pack of Natural Light that was missing 2 cans).  No one saw us getting a 5th for AJM after he got beat out by Nathan Pickerman.  And the list goes on and on.  

 

So I think there will be a trade or even multiple trades that could include one of our OL, WR, RB, or DB's.  Shaq could enter the equation too, but I think with Murphys injury history they will prefer to keep Shaq as solid insurance to back up Murphy.  

 

WR's - Anyone not named Cole or Brown could realistically be traded if a team called with the right offer (Giants is a situation to watch out for...they could use a WR and they are also stupid, Beanes kind of team to trade with).  But this would also require some of our fringe guys really making a case to be on the roster too...Duke, Ray Ray, McKenzie, Sills, Phillips, etc.  

 

RB's - The elephant in the room here is McCoy.  I loved the Singletary pick on draft night, even predicted it before they made the pick.  I said he is going to be a hard guy to keep off the field and would turn heads in camp and preseason.  So far, thats the trend we are seeing right now.  But even with that optimism, I thought there would be very little chance we trade McCoy.  Why:

1. First, its the last year of his contract, his cap hit has no relevance what so ever given we still have plenty of cap room with him here this year, so no cap incentive to do so.  
2. He has bought in fully to this regime, and has a legit tight bond with Josh Allen and Frank Gore.  
3. Would he have any trade value at his age if he was losing ground to a rookie is another question.

But, you never know...with teams looking at holdouts from their top RB's or if an injury happens, a team could make Beane an offer he feels he has to take, especially if they want to make room for more Singletary reps.  Darkhosre would be Yeldon...easy to say no one would trade for him, but Beane has gotten draft assets out of less heralded guys than Yeldon.  Could see him swinging a late round pick from a team looking for a 3rd down back.

 

OL - This is where I think we most likely see a trade.  OL guys have value, even mediocre ones.  Teams always looking for depth too and we will have some guys I think that are expendable now with how deep we are.  I feel like we will get a 5th or 6th for someone within this group, but none of the guys slated to start will be traded.  

 

DB's - Another deep group for us and there will be a good player buried on the depth chart I can see Beane flipping for a pick.  Only Tre is locked in, but we have 4 guys who could legit start opposite him right now as that job is up for grabs.  Could see someone calling us for one of them and Beane flipping one for decent value.  

 

Edited July 29, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[ProcessYaDigg]

i don't think he'll make many trades by the end of preseason.  Maybe one.  His first couple of years were active because he was cleaning house.  Now that the house has been McBean'd, The next phase of the process will begin with developing our talent.  The one trade i'm projecting will come out of our RB group.

[Misterbluesky]

51 minutes ago, jwhit34 said:

What about trading some of these guys:

 

Russell Bodine and/or Wyatt Teller - neither are in top 7 or 8

If Kevin Johnson is good/healthy, Levi Wallace (still have EJ Gaines and Pitts to back up and T. Johnson as slot CB)

Zay Jones, if not Zay, if Kaelin Clay can get traded multiple times, what about Ray Ray McCloud

TJ Yeldon (?able possibility since he didn't get a lot of FA interest)

Siran Neal

 

With the exception of Zay, probably none cut into depth in any impactful way.

 

 

Lat year..Teller had a solid exhibition season with the 2 nd line..giving up one sack...actually,the second offense moved the ball well.A rookie,who can pull,great feet,thrown into the fire last year and the 5th round pick held his own.

I would hate to see him get released since..he can pancake but he's raw.

I doubt he would clear waivers to get a spot on the PS.

Oh well.

[Foxx]

10 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

... First, its the last year of his contract, his cap hit has no relevance what so ever, so no cap incentive to do so.  ...

i thought there was a 6.1 mm savings if he was cut or traded?

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, Foxx said:

i thought there was a 6.1 mm savings if he was cut or traded?

 

Sorry, I should have clarified better, my bad.  Didn't mean they wont save money, I meant there is no relevance there because we don't need the cap space this year as we still have cap room now with him here.  

 

EDIT:  I just edited my first reply to better explain my thought there.  

Edited July 29, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[GunnerBill]

Bodine is a possible trade candidate. He is a guy who has been a starting center basically his whole time in the league but with Morse, Long and Feliciano all making this squad I don't see a spot for him. Specialist centers tend to be a position where demand outstrips supply and I could easily see a team who maybe has not legitimate backup or even has a center injury during camp flipping the Bills a late day 3 pick for him. We are talking a 6 or a 7 though. 

[Magox]

My guess is that the Bill's believe they have a solid enough roster to mortgage away high draft picks for elite franchise like playmakers similar to what the Bears did for Mack.

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

 

Couple of points re: Shady/Singletary and the supposed locked-in WR depth chart:

 

Every year, we have guys who are running away with their role at training camp but fade away as practice intensity ratchets up with pads/preseason games, or get injured, or who continue to be Preseason Heroes but disappear on Sunday when it counts.

 

It's early yet.  Wait.

 

As far as trade value: it matters that last year and this there was no intermediate cutdown.  We can keep every one of our guys until just before opening day.  That impacts strategy for teams where the injury bug bites deep and they can't fill the roster to their satisfaction with remaining FA.  If they want the guy in question to have a chance to assimilate the playbook and get in some practice, they got to "make a deal".  So it's not beyond the question that some team that is thin at WR or OL and gets bitten by injuries, might come calling and say "Bodine - what would you take?" or Foster, or whoever.   

 

Then it just matters, what are they offering us?  If we see a thin spot and they offer someone who could fill it, win-win.

 

I don't think the Bills want to trade Foster.  In no way can we be considered oversupplied with fully developed WR, FA WR are expensive and trades for good WR also don't come cheap.  I think they hope Brown will be "all that" this year, and Foster will grow into a complete guy behind him.

 

 

I think it makes no sense to trade Foster at all

 

High upside

Good contract....which is gonna be a good contract for at least 2 more years

Has a connection with Allen

 

As far as running back....what I DONT want is to have a chance (I dont even know if we do) to trade Shady.....dont do it....and then releasing him outright for nothing because they want to keep someone like Senoris Perry for ST's or something.

 

Shady does make a lot of money.....I love him dont get me wrong but if Singletary is a revelation you GOTTA get him on the field

[Mister Defense]

I assume the OP is just messing around with some of his comments, such as the possibility of the Bills trading Foster for a 3rd or 4th round pick before the season?? 

 

An oversupply of NFL quality receivers on the Bills!?!!

 

Good idea: trade away what, from all appearances, seemed to be one of your best young players last year, in one of the weakest areas of the team, to a desperate enough team for a mid round draft pick. We don't know if Foster will become the star he looked like he may become last year, but our eyes did not deceive us.

 

(And most of the other players mentioned, like Bodine, generally have almost no trade value at all.)

 

Whenever I read a bizarre and ridiculous post like this it makes me want to go back and check what the poster's views were on things like the Marshawn Lynch trade and see if they thought that (one of the worst moves in the history of the Bills) was a good, logical idea too...

 

 

[billspro]

I would not be surprised at all if they moved an olineman for a pick.

[Chicken Boo]

Not even joking as I type this.  See if you can package something for Ezekiel Elliot.  Aside from being a Hall of Fame talent, he would aid Allen's growth and make Josh that much more dangerous on the ground and through the air.

[MAJBobby]

5 hours ago, jwhit34 said:

Trade History

Beane has made trades during the preseason both years. In '18 it was Watkins, Darby and Ragland but also the Kevon Seymour for Kaelin Clay and a pick (turned into Tommy Sweeney). Last year he dealt AJ McCarron but also did the ill-fated Corey Coleman deal. 

 

Trade and Draft Strategy

Beane isn't shy about making trades and moving around at the draft. He has mostly moved up and by acquiring mid-late round picks has had the ammunition to move up a modest amount of slots to get guys they seem to like (Cody Ford, Dawson Knox this year) or hang onto them and pick more players. 

 

Roster Building

While you want to have your best 53 players on the roster, the reality is that the bottom of the roster (10-13) are for NFL worthy developmental players that would not clear waivers so they can't be on the practice squad (5-7) and some special teams players. Even with key subs you have about 17 players play offense (4 WR, 3 TE, 5 OL, 4 RB/FB, 1 QB), 18 on defense (8 DL, 3-4 LBs, 6-7 DBs) and 4 specialists (P, K, long snapper, return specialist) on game days from your top 40 (the rest of special teams comes from the aforementioned bottom 10-13). 

 

With the draft picks and free agents, you can make a case that there is an oversupply of NFL caliber players at DB, OL and WR (and adequate depth at RB, QB and DL). Could Beane swing deals with the surplus (and was that part of the plan all along) if they are happy with developmental players taking the last spot in some of those positions?  DBs and WRs are good examples:

• For WRs, Brown, Beasley and Jones seem locked in as top 3, Roberts is on the team as a kick/punt returner but may have WR value. Do they like McCloud or McKenzie enough to trade Foster or Jones? Could a WR desperate team (Giants?) trade a 3rd or 4th round pick for one of them? 
• For DBs,  specifically CBs, do they have 5 legit starter-worthy players (White, Wallace, K. Johnson, T. Johnson, Gaines)? Is Pitts good enough as an emergency fill in to trade one of those 5? What about Siran Neal as the big nickel?

 

Even O-line, could some team take Bodine? Waddle? I won't suggest Ducasse on this board. 

 

So, I could see Beane trading a few players at the end of pre-season and picking up an extra 3 or so picks. Keep in mind it wouldn't be a guy they were cutting teams figure that out, but some of the young talent may be of interest. Example: if the interior OL is good with Spain, Morse, Feliciano and Long and a young guy like Boettger shows okay to be the inactive OL on game day could they trade Teller? 

 

I think this is a significant part of Beane's roster building strategy. He wants to build through the draft, retain their own, and stay out of cap jail. Always having 8-10 picks and the ability to get guys you really feel strongly about allows you to do that. Most of all it seems like he has a comprehensive strategy which is refreshing.

 

 

As I said in another thread going to be weird typing this but OL and WR have turned into positions where I think there are tradable assets before cut day. 

 

Also the DB depth chart can get Beane and Bills some picks (before cuts) or even player for player type trades. 

 

I do think their heir will be a couple trades before cut day. As injuries mount in camps (hope not ours) I do have a feeling Beane will be getting calls specially in those 3 Position groups. 

 

My unrealistic dream some team calling and offering a 2nd for Star. 

Edited July 29, 2019 by MAJBobby

[Saxum]

30 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

Not even joking as I type this.  See if you can package something for Ezekiel Elliot.  Aside from being a Hall of Fame talent, he would aid Allen's growth and make Josh that much more dangerous on the ground and through the air.

 

With him holding out for payment now before end of initial contract I think he is as likely to hold out for Bills unless a break-the-bank contract was offered and then holdout again later in contract.  Hard pass on the gold digger especially with our contract writer who tends to avoid pull back clauses to get players to sign more quickly.

[boco357]

For anyone that doubts whom Big Baller Beane can deal, look at the names he has traded:  AJ McCarron, Marshall Newhouse, Kevon Seymour. Teams tend to panic especially with injuries in training camp and preseason.

So I wouldn't be shocked if Ducasse got dealt and possibly another move.

Edited July 29, 2019 by boco357

[Beast]

It took some time to build this depth. Let’s enjoy it for a training camp or two.

[CaptnCoke11]

6 hours ago, KGun12TD said:

I don't want for the Bills to trade FOSTER! No!!!

We finally get good depth and people want to trade it away.. amazing 

[jwhit34]

1 hour ago, boco357 said:

For anyone that doubts whom Big Baller Beane can deal, look at the names he has traded:  AJ McCarron, Marshall Newhouse, Kevon Seymour. Teams tend to panic especially with injuries in training camp and preseason.

So I wouldn't be shocked if Ducasse got dealt and possibly another move.

This is at the core of my premise, said much more succinctly. Injuries, players not panning out, result in teams panicking. Another response mentioned the impact of no early cut down day too. With players flooding the market, teams from #15 down in the waiver claim order will worry they won't get anyone good so they are willing to flip a 5 or 6 for a fringe player. Right now they have their own picks 1-6 but dealt #7 to Browns for Corey Coleman. I bet Beane would like to have a couple more.

 

Also if they get off to a good start I could see him dealing a 3 or 4 for a player at a need position (rental) a la Benjamin trade. 

[Mat68]

I look at like there are buyers and sellers.  If Buffalo makes a move it will be an addition.  Beane said pre and post draft they have the cap space available if a premier talent comes available.  I dont see Beane in a make or break year sell a player for a day 2 pick.

[BillsfaninChicago]

I am not going to lie when I got the Bills app notification today my heart skipped a beat for a second thinking Beane maybe did some wheeling and dealing magic. 

[KGun12TD]

14 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

We finally get good depth and people want to trade it away.. amazing 

 

 

UGH! Always, Right? Geez.