colin Posted July 23, 2019 Posted July 23, 2019 i like the take, but the home and away games don't add up. which game is marked as a home game which is really an away game?
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted July 23, 2019 Posted July 23, 2019 10 hours ago, Virgil said: If there's anything I'm the most scarred by in the past decade, it's the two 5-2 starts to the season where we missed the playoffs. I remember the pure confidence believing we would make the playoffs as only an obsurdly small number of teams started like that and didn't make them. That, plus numerous prime time losses, the Pats for the past twenty years, and Billsy things makes it really hard for me to predict a plus-.500 win season. I know all the reasons why everyone thinks we will win 9, possibly 10-11 game. I see what they see. But here's why I see 8. 1 - Blow-Out Losses. Each season under McDermott, we've had more than a few blow-out losses for no excusable reason. Games where we just don't show up at all. I believe that's something that will continue to happen until it doesn't. 2 - We play the Pats twice and they are our Daddy until they aren't. 3 - No matter how much of a joke the Dolphins or Jets seem to be to me, we rarely sweep both in the same season. We find a way to play to their level. Even the season we made the playoffs, we barely beat the Dolphins both games. The Jets, who were a much worse team than us a last year were one of the games we got blown out of. 4 - Offenses can make a jump in the offseason, but usually not THAT big of a jump. I know the Rams just did it, but that's typically rare. Also, when half of your receiving core is brand new, chemistry and rhythm takes time. Same goes for an entirely new offensive line. It's not about talent, it's about playing as a team. It can take teams half a season or a whole season to click. 5 - I don't think Ed Oliver was all we needed to improve our pass rush. I've made it known I wanted Allen, but it's not about that. Unless Murphy makes a big comeback, rookie DT's don't typically make that kind of impact their first year. I think the current guess is 5 sacks, which would be a great season for him. Either way, that's not going to be a huge difference maker. I don't see the light magically turning on for Shaq either. 6 - Allen looked fantastic after he came back from his injury, but as another post/article suggested, he still had serious accuracy issues. Could he make that jump forward? Yes. Could he not? Also yes. In the NFL, unless you are a consistent top 5 team, it's truly any given Sunday and we the Bills until proven otherwise. To be clear again, I can see where all the 10-6 love is coming from and why it should happen. But I also know the Bills doing Billsy things, remember those 5-2 starts, and how we find a way. For those who want the break-down: Jets x2 - Split Dolphins x2 - Sweep them Pats x2 - Swept by them Division 3-3 @ Giants - Win vs Cincy - Win (Only because it's the home and early in the season. These games go either way against them) @Titans - Either way (Billsy Loss) vs Eagles - Loss vs Skins - Win @ Cleveland - Loss vs Broncos - Win @ Cowboys - Loss (primetime) vs Ravens - Win because we do well against them at home or Loss because their defense just spanks us. I feel like McD defense shuts down Lamar. But we are Billsy.... @ Steelers - Loss It comes down to the Titans and Ravens for me. Should we win on paper, yes. Do we do that usually, no. Roast me! It'll come down to beating NEx2, Pitt, Cle, Tenn, or baltimore. Need to win at least 1 -probably 2. These are AFC games for tiebreaker purposes, and the division win over NE or sweeping the Jets would be Huge. NYJ, MIA, MIA, NYG, CIN, WSH, DEN - thats 7 If they sweep the jets - thats 8. They would then need to win 2 of the 6 games against the AFC contenders to make it to 10. I didn't put dallas and philly since NFC games mean less. I think Baltimore is beatable. Need to take care of the ball in that game. Pitt is one of those games i just expect to lose. We haven't beaten them since the 90s, but we'll see how lethal the O is without both brown and bell. I know Pitt fans have that as a guarantee. NE is NE - its their division til we take it from them. Tenn - i hate mariota so i would hate losing to that team. Cle - Everyone loves them but offseason champs doesn't mean much At the end of the day - we have some easier games on the schedule with teams like Miami, Cinn, and NYG - but we also play some solid AFC teams. Good teams win these games, so hopefully Allen is ready to rock and the defense is as advertised. 1
Billzfan23 Posted July 23, 2019 Posted July 23, 2019 Why would @Steelers be an automatic loss? Didn't they lose Brown, and Bell - and have an aging QB to boot. I don't think that's an automatic loss at all.
Jerry Jabber Posted July 23, 2019 Posted July 23, 2019 Virgil, you make a lot of good points, considering the Bills history, their tendencies, etc... This offseason, Beane and McDermott showed me something that we haven't seen since Bill Polian was the GM and that is "A plan to build a team." It seems since Polian left and mostly during the playoff drought years, Bills management/coaches built the team like they were throwing darts (all over the place). We would see a skilled player or two in a group, then rest of the group would be below average players. This offseason, the Bills made a huge investment in the O-line between free agency and the draft. Not only do the Bills have better starters on the O-line, but they have depth. I get that it will take some time for the unit to gel, but it's not like McDermott will be throwing five rookies out there. We've seen in the past that a seasoned veteran (like Incognito) can have an immediate impact. I see the O-line starting the season off good, then progressively start to become a very good-to-elite line towards the end of the season. Allen won't have to run so much to avoid sacks with the new O-line, he'll take off and run when there's nobody 10-15 yards in front of him. McBeane upgraded the WR position with adding Beasley (a clutch receiver) and Brown, so the Bills now have four good WR's between Zay Jones, Foster, Brown and Beasley. Granted, there is not a dominant #1 WR in the group, but I like the WR group by committee approach. If used properly, Allen will have a lot of weapons at his disposal. I also liked McBeane's approach to the RB's. The Bills have the present and future on the team with McCoy/Gore (present) and Yeldon/Singletary (future). Just like the O-line, the RB position have good starters along with good depth. TE position is an unknown at this point as we need to see these guys play. Bringing back Lee Smith to be an extra blocker is a good move. Not sure what to expect from Tyler Kroft as he's injured. With the D-line, I like that McBeane got a penetrating DT in Ed Oliver. Brady is the best in the league at stepping up in the pocket, so getting a player that can get pressure up the middle will force Brady to move to his sides. Jerry Hughes does a great job of getting around the O-line, but by the time he gets to the QB, the QB has stepped up in the pocket and made a play, so if Ed Oliver is as good as advertised, that will make Hughes' job much easier. I agree on your assessment on Trent Murphy, I do wish they would have gotten an upgrade there. Otherwise, the LB's are the best the Bills have had since Fletcher, Spikes and Crowell. I'm not worried about the secondary as they should continue to be a good group. Jets x2 - Split Dolphins x2 - Sweep them Pats x2 - Split (the Bills win the first meeting) Division 4-2 @ Giants - Win vs Cincy - Win @Titans - Win vs Eagles - Win vs Skins - Win @ Cleveland - could go either way but I'll go with a loss vs Broncos - Win @ Cowboys - Win (Losing Beasley will impact the Cowboys offense more than they realize, plus their playcalling is redundant and repetitive) vs Ravens - Could go either way but I'll go with a loss @ Steelers - Loss
2020 Our Year For Sure Posted July 23, 2019 Posted July 23, 2019 28 minutes ago, Jerry Jabber said: Virgil, you make a lot of good points, considering the Bills history, their tendencies, etc... This offseason, Beane and McDermott showed me something that we haven't seen since Bill Polian was the GM and that is "A plan to build a team." It seems since Polian left and mostly during the playoff drought years, Bills management/coaches built the team like they were throwing darts (all over the place). We would see a skilled player or two in a group, then rest of the group would be below average players. This offseason, the Bills made a huge investment in the O-line between free agency and the draft. Not only do the Bills have better starters on the O-line, but they have depth. I get that it will take some time for the unit to gel, but it's not like McDermott will be throwing five rookies out there. We've seen in the past that a seasoned veteran (like Incognito) can have an immediate impact. I see the O-line starting the season off good, then progressively start to become a very good-to-elite line towards the end of the season. Allen won't have to run so much to avoid sacks with the new O-line, he'll take off and run when there's nobody 10-15 yards in front of him. McBeane upgraded the WR position with adding Beasley (a clutch receiver) and Brown, so the Bills now have four good WR's between Zay Jones, Foster, Brown and Beasley. Granted, there is not a dominant #1 WR in the group, but I like the WR group by committee approach. If used properly, Allen will have a lot of weapons at his disposal. I also liked McBeane's approach to the RB's. The Bills have the present and future on the team with McCoy/Gore (present) and Yeldon/Singletary (future). Just like the O-line, the RB position have good starters along with good depth. TE position is an unknown at this point as we need to see these guys play. Bringing back Lee Smith to be an extra blocker is a good move. Not sure what to expect from Tyler Kroft as he's injured. With the D-line, I like that McBeane got a penetrating DT in Ed Oliver. Brady is the best in the league at stepping up in the pocket, so getting a player that can get pressure up the middle will force Brady to move to his sides. Jerry Hughes does a great job of getting around the O-line, but by the time he gets to the QB, the QB has stepped up in the pocket and made a play, so if Ed Oliver is as good as advertised, that will make Hughes' job much easier. I agree on your assessment on Trent Murphy, I do wish they would have gotten an upgrade there. Otherwise, the LB's are the best the Bills have had since Fletcher, Spikes and Crowell. I'm not worried about the secondary as they should continue to be a good group. Jets x2 - Split Dolphins x2 - Sweep them Pats x2 - Split (the Bills win the first meeting) Division 4-2 @ Giants - Win vs Cincy - Win @Titans - Win vs Eagles - Win vs Skins - Win @ Cleveland - could go either way but I'll go with a loss vs Broncos - Win @ Cowboys - Win (Losing Beasley will impact the Cowboys offense more than they realize, plus their playcalling is redundant and repetitive) vs Ravens - Could go either way but I'll go with a loss @ Steelers - Loss Were they lacking in accuracy, or was it precision? ?
jletha Posted July 23, 2019 Posted July 23, 2019 6 hours ago, Virgil said: I fully expect them to start 2-0 and still see 8-8. Hence, the 5-2 references. Why do we ALWAYS play the Jets when we end up 5-2??? It happened in 2008, 2011, 2017 and we lost all of them. If we didnt make the playoffs in 2017 being 5-2 thrice and missing the playoffs each time would be an unbreakable record. Dammit Dalton.
njbuff Posted July 23, 2019 Posted July 23, 2019 Let's just worry about beating the Jets and then take it from there. 1
MJS Posted July 23, 2019 Posted July 23, 2019 There really isn't any big difference between 8 wins and 10 wins. I kind of feel like 8 wins is the floor, though. I predict 9 wins. Like you, I don't think we'll sweep the Jets. I think we lose to them away and win at home. But there's no reason we can't beat the Titans. This is a competent regime and I don't think the term "Billsy" applies anymore. 2
ColdFront_USAF Posted July 23, 2019 Posted July 23, 2019 11 hours ago, LSHMEAB said: 6 should be 1 and 5 should be 2. Allen's improvement will be the most critical factor offensively(obviously). The overall talent is not GREAT, but if the real deal, he'll elevate those around him in year 2. My main concern defensively remains edge rushers. Lorax is a great dude, but ancient. Hughes is solid, but not elite. Murphy and Lawson? Mehhhh. Oliver will help, but maybe not enough. I would feel much more confident going into this season if we'd have swung for the fences and landed Clark or Clowney. I got excited when I heard the rumors that we might swing a trade for one of those two, but the more I heard Beane talk the more I realized it was probably never going to happen, and I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing. A move for a player of that caliber is so expensive, both in terms of the draft picks you need to give up to obtain him and the massive contract you need to sign him to upon arrival to keep him happy. Moves like that are typically a "one player away" type of move, and Beane is on record saying a team is never one player away. That mentality is the reason we saw some of the biggest names in football traded away this past year and none of them became Bills. Beane would prefer to have his draft picks for his trademarked wheeling and dealing on draft day and the cap flexibility to be aggressive during free agency then to spend it all on a big name player at a premium position. We'll just have to wait and see if it works out for him. 1 1
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted July 23, 2019 Posted July 23, 2019 27 minutes ago, ColdFront_USAF said: I got excited when I heard the rumors that we might swing a trade for one of those two, but the more I heard Beane talk the more I realized it was probably never going to happen, and I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing. A move for a player of that caliber is so expensive, both in terms of the draft picks you need to give up to obtain him and the massive contract you need to sign him to upon arrival to keep him happy. Moves like that are typically a "one player away" type of move, and Beane is on record saying a team is never one player away. That mentality is the reason we saw some of the biggest names in football traded away this past year and none of them became Bills. Beane would prefer to have his draft picks for his trademarked wheeling and dealing on draft day and the cap flexibility to be aggressive during free agency then to spend it all on a big name player at a premium position. We'll just have to wait and see if it works out for him. If the price is low it makes sense - hence the interest in antonio brown. 3rd and a 5th was pretty cheap... it was the new deal for a 32 year old that probably turned him and most of the league off.
SoTier Posted July 23, 2019 Posted July 23, 2019 (edited) 12 hours ago, Virgil said: Again, two years ago under the McDermott regime. We lost 34-21, with two of our TD's coming in garbage time at the end I'm talking about the team under McDermott as a whole. He's found a way to get blown out in each season. ^^^ 12 hours ago, jeremy2020 said: ..and how many times was Gase blown out? What is the rate of "blowout" losses for McDermott compared to other coaches in the NFL the last 3 years? The Bills have lost 8 times by 20 or more points in 32 games under McDermott. That's 1 out of every 4 games or 25% of games over 2 years. 2017: Saints, 47-10 Chargers, 54-24 Pats, 23-3 Pats, 37-16 2018: Ravens, 47-3 Packers, 22-0 Colts, 37-5 Bears, 41-9 The Bills have also been uncompetitive in at least 3 games under McDermott. In 2017 the Bills lost to the Jets by 13 points, losing 34-21, but they scored 2 TDs in the last 4 minutes. In 2018, the Bills lost to the Chargers 31-20 when the Chargers coasted in the 2nd half after building a 28-6 lead at half time early in the season and in the last game of the season, the Bills lost to the Pats 24-12 but they scored their only TD in the last minute of the game. Try to spin it however you want, but the Bills have not been truly competitive in 11 of their 32 games under McDermott. That's almost 1 in 3 games. I don't think that many of the other teams that made the playoffs in the last 3 years have played so many uncompetitive games. It's not a good sign if it continues. Edited July 23, 2019 by SoTier
PetermansRedemption Posted July 23, 2019 Posted July 23, 2019 It’s sad, but I’m with you. BBFS is alive and well. Extra scary this year the Bills could (should?) start 3-0.
Virgil Posted July 23, 2019 Author Posted July 23, 2019 12 minutes ago, SoTier said: ^^^ The Bills have lost 8 times by 20 or more points in 32 games under McDermott. That's 1 out of every 4 games or 25% of games over 2 years. 2017: Saints, 47-10 Chargers, 54-24 Pats, 23-3 Pats, 37-16 2018: Ravens, 47-3 Packers, 22-0 Colts, 37-5 Bears, 41-9 The Bills have also been uncompetitive in at least 3 games under McDermott. In 2017 the Bills lost to the Jets by 13 points, losing 34-21, but they scored 2 TDs in the last 4 minutes. In 2018, the Bills lost to the Chargers 31-20 when the Chargers coasted in the 2nd half after building a 28-6 lead at half time early in the season and in the last game of the season, the Bills lost to the Pats 24-12 but they scored their only TD in the last minute of the game. Try to spin it however you want, but the Bills have not been truly competitive in 11 of their 32 games under McDermott. That's almost 1 in 3 games. I don't think that many of the other teams that made the playoffs in the last 3 years have played so many uncompetitive games. It's not a good sign if it continues. This^
Bing Bong Posted July 23, 2019 Posted July 23, 2019 (edited) The blowout losses are really concerning. It's not just Nate Peterman either. Both years I see the team show up with just no will to compete on more than one occasion in a season. I get the excuses for the blowout losses, but it's pretty inexcusable for every single player to look completely listless like all McDermott did is just rip out a big fart as his pregame speech and send the boys through the tunnel. Edited July 23, 2019 by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P 1
Bing Bong Posted July 23, 2019 Posted July 23, 2019 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Virgil said: This^ I can see it early on in their body language too. Really makes me wonder what the heck happens in the locker room and what the mood is before they run out on the field. Like McDermott just shot someone's dog in the locker room for his pregame speech or something. Edited July 23, 2019 by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted July 23, 2019 Posted July 23, 2019 no, they will only win 3 games and McD will be fired at seasons end and Beane will resign his post. 2020 wont be much better with a new GM/HC and they'll only win 2 games under the new regime giving bills fans no hope for 2021. it may be a good idea for those that cant stomach 2 and 3 win seasons to just avoid even watching any bills games at all. the playoff season 2 years ago was nothing but a fluke, they got in not by being a good team but by pure luck alone. it's going to be a tough ride this upcoming season and fans will lose any hope they had by the bye when they are 0-5. fans will be calling for McDs head coming out of the bye when they will be blown out by the fins at home. the most embarrassing game will be turkey day where the whole nation will watch the bills annihilated by the cowgirls being shut out 38-0. happy thanksgiving the worst of it all is they'll go 0-6 in the division and by week 13 twitter will run rampant with not jumping on burning tables videos yet instead will be bills fans burning their jerseys. good stuff brace yourself folks, you thought the off season was long, this upcoming season will seem to never end. GO BILLS!! 1
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted July 23, 2019 Posted July 23, 2019 (edited) Quote He's found a way to get blown out in each season. Belichick loses 31-0 Is that a blow out? 34-10 loss to the Tennessee Titans last November. Is that a blow out? Are these? 41-14 vs. the Kansas City Chiefs in 2014 (regular season) 33-14 vs. the Baltimore Ravens in the 2009 Wild Card round 41 - 17 vs. the Chargers in 2005: Like Tom said Blowouts happen Edited July 23, 2019 by ShadyBillsFan 1
Nihilarian Posted July 23, 2019 Posted July 23, 2019 13 hours ago, Virgil said: 1 - Blow-Out Losses. Each season under McDermott, we've had more than a few blow-out losses for no excusable reason. Games where we just don't show up at all. I believe that's something that will continue to happen until it doesn't. There were reasons as to why this happened a few times last season and it had a lot to do with having such a bad offensive line...with no run game by the RBs. And it wasn't the RB's fault as its nearly impossible to make yards when the opposing defense is in the backfield making the tackle as soon as the ball is handed off. The team got behind in points and the offense went full pass mode with a rookie QB behind center most of the time and let's face it... Josh Allen was very raw and learning on the job. The kid wasn't supposed to start and should have sit, learned behind a veteran QB. The defense on the field more then they should have been and they get worn down by the 4th quarter. 7 hours ago, JerseyBills said: 4 - Offenses can make a jump in the offseason, but usually not THAT big of a jump. I know the Rams just did it, but that's typically rare. Also, when half of your receiving core is brand new, chemistry and rhythm takes time. Same goes for an entirely new offensive line. It's not about talent, it's about playing as a team. It can take teams half a season or a whole season to click. This years offense should make a gigantic leap! Not only should the Bills field a greatly improved offensive line they should also have some quality depth. The season the Bills RB will actually have some holes to run through most of the time. The receiver corps just took a gigantic leap too. With John Brown, Zay Jones and Robert Foster all capable of running a 4:40 or faster should give opposing DCs nightmares about the deep bombs from Allen's arm. Last season the Bills attempted more deep passes than any other team and this year they have the weapons/line to make that work. Not to mention Cole Beasley catching first down after first down. Then there is Dawson Knox who is a poor mans TJ Hockenson, who by some reports likened Knox to Hock! The season the Bills offense should be dictating the tempo and controlling the clock. Now, go back and look at the last two games of the season by the 2018 Buffalo Bills a 24-12 loss to the Patriots in which the Bills held Tom Brady to 13 of 24 for 126 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT. With a 48.3 QB rate, very un-Brady like! Now the reason the Patriots won that game is when Brady faltered they ran it down the Bills throats. Sony Michel &Co, 47 attempts rushing, 273 yards 2 TDs! The next game was a 42-17 blowout of the Miami Dolphins with Josh Allen throwing for 3 TDs and rushing for 2 TDs with a QB passer rating of 114.9. Allen accounted for 329 yards of offense. This year he has a run game to lean on with some decent receivers who will actually catch most everything coming their way. Bottom line for me is 10-6 will be the min and 12-4 should be the final. The biggest issue I see the Bills having trouble with is stopping the run as they face, 1) Jets, Le'Veon Bell. 2) NY Giants, Saquon Barkley 3) Joe Mixon 4) Sony Michel 5) Derrick Henry BYE WEEK. If the Bills can shut down those RB's and get the lead it will force the opposing offenses into pass mode against that #1 Buffalo Bills pass defense from last year with ex Bill, EJ Gains, and former first round pick by the Texans CB Kevin Johnson added to the secondary. Now, that 2019 first round pick in Ed Oliver who was graded as a top three pick will be able to do his thing in getting to the QB, along with Hughes. Oliver should be a force much like Aaron Donald now that he will no longer be triple teamed on the nose. The only losses I see are the @Browns, @Cowboys, @Steelers, @NE. 12-4 should take the division. Two other possible losses are Ravens, Eagles, 10-6 WC.
Recommended Posts