The myth of the sophomore QB slump

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

 

I agree with you guys, and I also think it's important that we define what results we're expecting to see.

 

For me, it's 3 things:

1) I expect to see more decisiveness in the passing game

2) I expect to see a less rushed setup/delivery on quick throws and when things break down

3) I expect to see a greater willingness to take what the defense gives 

 

If Josh shows me those 3 things, I'll go ahead and declare him a franchise QB in the making.

 

I think 1 and 3 are critical. I'm less worried about 2 to be honest. I think that will always be there with him. He will always make the stupifying throws that he should never make and sometimes you will go "what was THAT?" and sometimes you will go "what was... WOW". Sorta Bratt Favre like. I want to see him run less too. They should still use his running but I want him to start to think of himself as a passer and not a playmaker. Because that is where sustainable success will come from. 

 

Coupled with that he needs to be on the right side of the passing TD / INT ratio and be up towards 60% in terms of completion % (high 50s is fine but it needs to be going in that direction). Those are the production metrics I think go hand in hand with what the eye test evaluation needs to show. 

[eball]

20 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

 

I agree with you guys, and I also think it's important that we define what results we're expecting to see.

 

For me, it's 3 things:

1) I expect to see more decisiveness in the passing game

2) I expect to see a less rushed setup/delivery on quick throws and when things break down

3) I expect to see a greater willingness to take what the defense gives 

 

If Josh shows me those 3 things, I'll go ahead and declare him a franchise QB in the making.

 

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think 1 and 3 are critical. I'm less worried about 2 to be honest. I think that will always be there with him. He will always make the stupifying throws that he should never make and sometimes you will go "what was THAT?" and sometimes you will go "what was... WOW". Sorta Bratt Favre like. I want to see him run less too. They should still use his running but I want him to start to think of himself as a passer and not a playmaker. Because that is where sustainable success will come from. 

 

Coupled with that he needs to be on the right side of the passing TD / INT ratio and be up towards 60% in terms of completion % (high 50s is fine but it needs to be going in that direction). Those are the production metrics I think go hand in hand with what the eye test evaluation needs to show. 

 

Good stuff.  I think (hope?) #2 will come naturally as Josh is no longer seeing things for the first (or second) time.  #1 is about confidence -- knowing the system, knowing the players, knowing the defense.  #3 is about Josh's brain and his ability to learn that hero ball isn't the way to go.

[JESSEFEFFER]

4 minutes ago, eball said:

 

 

Good stuff.  I think (hope?) #2 will come naturally as Josh is no longer seeing things for the first (or second) time.  #1 is about confidence -- knowing the system, knowing the players, knowing the defense.  #3 is about Josh's brain and his ability to learn that hero ball isn't the way to go.

 

I would qualify that as learning that 100% hero ball is not necessary 100% of the time.  Sort of like Marshawn's Beast Mode, I think we'd all be happy if Josh's hero ball can make spectacular appearances when it's most needed.  Maybe he can learn to function like Bruce Wayne until the Bat Signal goes up.

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, eball said:

 

Yep.  I've been big on the "Allen never got good coaching until now" bandwagon but by the time the regular season starts he will have had roughly 20 months of preparation and coaching to be an NFL QB and it's time to see the results.

His college coach was Carson Wentz’ coach.  How many college coaches have had 2 top 10 drafted qbs in the last 5 years?  Much less at NDSU and Wyoming.

[Gugny]

18 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

I can see 3500 passing yards 25 TDs with 850 rushing and 7TDs with Josh arriving on the scene

 

If he has 850 yards rushing, I don't think that will mean he's improved.

[US Egg]

Given his 1st season, where he was thrown to the wolves due in part to the Peterman fiasco and a bad OL nd WR corp, asuredly, outside of injury of course, Allen should be much improved....not just a little.

 

Beane's off-season work has got to help that happen as well. Should be no Sophmore slump.

[eball]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

His college coach was Carson Wentz’ coach.

 

So?  That doesn't mean he knows how to coach and develop QBs.  Am I off base here?  I think it has been pretty well established that Allen didn't receive great coaching at the QB position while in Wyoming, and he wasn't one of those "groomed to be a QB" kids.

 

In any event, it's irrelevant for reasons stated earlier in the thread.  He's a smart kid and has almost two years of NFL prep and NFL coaching...time to start showing significant progress.

[row_33]

Josh has a lot of potential

 

about 50 things could happen, a lot depends on staying healthy

 

best wishes for 2019 for the Bills and Josh!!

 

 

[artmalibu]

I point I dont tend to hear about Allen is that he didnt have much of a rookie preseason, with a 3 way competition at QB.  If he were an off the bus starter he would have been better prepared to play early on....

[Buffalo716]

3 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

If he has 850 yards rushing, I don't think that will mean he's improved.

He is a dual threat QB. If he isn't using his legs while he is young we aren't using him to his fullest extent

 

Do you want him running around at 30? No, but rn you need to take advantage of it

 

His legs are part of the reason we drafted him and that doesn't mean he needs to be reckless outside the pocket

 

5-7 well timed scrambles a game will keep defenses honest and keep moved the chains. 7 yards a scramble and he's around 850

 

It doenst mean he's regressing just because he's a talented runner. He can improve passing 10 fold and still put up good rushing numbers because he's talented

 

 

[eball]

41 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

He is a dual threat QB. If he isn't using his legs while he is young we aren't using him to his fullest extent

 

Do you want him running around at 30? No, but rn you need to take advantage of it

 

His legs are part of the reason we drafted him and that doesn't mean he needs to be reckless outside the pocket

 

5-7 well timed scrambles a game will keep defenses honest and keep moved the chains. 7 yards a scramble and he's around 850

 

It doenst mean he's regressing just because he's a talented runner. He can improve passing 10 fold and still put up good rushing numbers because he's talented

 

 

 

Yes, it was a different era, but Randall Cunningham only rushed for more than 800 yards once in his career ('90), and Steve Young never rushed for more than 540.

[Buffalo716]

Just now, eball said:

 

Yes, it was a different era, but Randall Cunningham only rushed for more than 800 yards once in his career ('90), and Steve Young never rushed for more than 540.

I realize that

 

850 is a huge number. But I only have him throwing for 3500 yards so I think it's doable if he runs 7 times a game

 

Josh has legit running back skills

[Gugny]

37 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

He is a dual threat QB. If he isn't using his legs while he is young we aren't using him to his fullest extent

 

Do you want him running around at 30? No, but rn you need to take advantage of it

 

His legs are part of the reason we drafted him and that doesn't mean he needs to be reckless outside the pocket

 

5-7 well timed scrambles a game will keep defenses honest and keep moved the chains. 7 yards a scramble and he's around 850

 

It doenst mean he's regressing just because he's a talented runner. He can improve passing 10 fold and still put up good rushing numbers because he's talented

 

 

 

He rushed for 7 YPC last year, for 631 yards (in 12 games).  It's my opinion that he ran too much.  He ran too much because he either had no, or couldn't find any, open receivers.

 

I'd rather see him get the rushing attempt number down and learn to check down more.  Let the receivers and the running backs do their things.

 

Allen is a big boy.  But too many hits take their toll on big QBs, too.  Just ask Cam Newton.

 

If Allen has 850 yards rushing, not only will it likely mean that he's regressed, but it will mean that our offense sucks.

 

With 850, there's probably a 90% chance that he'd lead the team in rushing.  That would be two years in a row.  No bueno.

 

And this is all coming from a big Josh Allen fan.

[C.Biscuit97]

2 hours ago, eball said:

 

So?  That doesn't mean he knows how to coach and develop QBs.  Am I off base here?  I think it has been pretty well established that Allen didn't receive great coaching at the QB position while in Wyoming, and he wasn't one of those "groomed to be a QB" kids.

 

In any event, it's irrelevant for reasons stated earlier in the thread.  He's a smart kid and has almost two years of NFL prep and NFL coaching...time to start showing significant progress.

He helped 2 qbs who weren’t highly thought of (they won’t have been at NDSU and Wyoming if they were) and helped them develop into top 10 picks.  I’d argue that is the definition of good coaching.  

 

Hopefully after this year, we can stop with all the excuse making for Allen, right?

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

He rushed for 7 YPC last year, for 631 yards (in 12 games).  It's my opinion that he ran too much.  He ran too much because he either had no, or couldn't find any, open receivers.

 

I'd rather see him get the rushing attempt number down and learn to check down more.  Let the receivers and the running backs do their things.

 

Allen is a big boy.  But too many hits take their toll on big QBs, too.  Just ask Cam Newton.

 

If Allen has 850 yards rushing, not only will it likely mean that he's regressed, but it will mean that our offense sucks.

 

With 850, there's probably a 90% chance that he'd lead the team in rushing.  That would be two years in a row.  No bueno.

 

And this is all coming from a big Josh Allen fan.

Offense is all about moving the ball and scoring. It doesn't mean he's regressing because he has good running stats

 

He can be going through 3 progressions and then taking off. It doenst need to be a panic scramble

 

Maturity with a QB comes with age. Allen will learn with reps

 

Again at 30 it would be an issue. Year 2 , his legs + his arm will make him super dangerous. 

 

He isn't at the point where he can sling it for 300 yards a game and that's ok. His instinctive running will only help us 

 

Our line is full of pass blockers rn , we still aren't maulers upfront. Josh can break off 20 yarders pretty easily when the defense is in man. I think 500 rushing is bare minimum

[C.Biscuit97]

12 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I realize that

 

850 is a huge number. But I only have him throwing for 3500 yards so I think it's doable if he runs 7 times a game

 

Josh has legit running back skills

But he’s not built like rb.  He won’t survive doing that. 

[Buffalo716]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

But he’s not built like rb.  He won’t survive doing that. 

 

6-7 well timed scrambles you can absolutely survive

 

It's football

 

You are just as likely to get hurt IN THE POCKET as you are OUTSIDE it

 

Infact outside the pocket he is usually dealing with Safeties and some LBrs .. in the pocket he's dealing with 300 pound lineman 

 

A well timed scramble against man is still one of THE MOST EFFECTIVE chain movers

[row_33]

27 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

But he’s not built like rb.  He won’t survive doing that. 

 

many of us are concerned that he's a sitting duck every time he runs for his life out there

 

others tell us it's not worth worrying about, i think half of them are very naive.

 

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

4 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

If he has 850 yards rushing, I don't think that will mean he's improved.

 

...850 yards rushing means he's heading for a gurney sooner than later........need a long term franchise solution at QB and not a quick injury exit.....850 is absurd.....

[eball]

23 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

He helped 2 qbs who weren’t highly thought of (they won’t have been at NDSU and Wyoming if they were) and helped them develop into top 10 picks.  I’d argue that is the definition of good coaching.  

 

Hopefully after this year, we can stop with all the excuse making for Allen, right?

 

Ok so I know your agenda is that you don't like Allen -- you beat that drum all last year -- but stop implying that I'm making excuses for him when that is clearly not happening.