Nextmanup Posted June 30, 2019 Posted June 30, 2019 When the OP writes that he would not be expecting a sophomore slump from Josh Allen, does he base this on anything other than simply being a Bills fan?
row_33 Posted June 30, 2019 Posted June 30, 2019 5 hours ago, Boca BIlls said: He doesn't have to learn it. You saw last year he stayed in the pocket as long as the poor guy could. Time he took bad hits was him sitting there trying to find a guy open. Crazy his two worst hits camen in the pocket, were both completions. The one in Houston that took him out of the game, and the one I thought he was going to get killed in the Jags game when he threw the amazing TD pass to Foster. he ran for his life faster than Tyrod that's understandable for a rook, he is going to get righteously clocked early in the season as teams KNOW he runs for his life very quickly
Boca BIlls Posted June 30, 2019 Posted June 30, 2019 39 minutes ago, row_33 said: he ran for his life faster than Tyrod that's understandable for a rook, he is going to get righteously clocked early in the season as teams KNOW he runs for his life very quickly Tyrod had an offensive line... Allen didn't even have a starting center.
Buffalo716 Posted June 30, 2019 Author Posted June 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Nextmanup said: When the OP writes that he would not be expecting a sophomore slump from Josh Allen, does he base this on anything other than simply being a Bills fan? Yes I base this on 26+ years of coaching and scouting and research I HATED the Allen pick on draft night. I said I was going to drive my car off a bridge I thought he had tremendous potential but wanted a more polished QB But I am not stuck in the past.. I reevaluate all the time and I saw a MARKED improvement in post injury Josh from pre injury He was more confident, decisive and accurate. I believe the arrow is pointing up and will continue that way this season 2
JESSEFEFFER Posted August 18, 2019 Posted August 18, 2019 On 6/27/2019 at 5:18 PM, JESSEFEFFER said: I originally did this in consideration of the 6.5 over/under line for the Bills season but it also illustrates an important idea opposed to the myth to which you refer. Big changes in win totals for teams having a starting QB going into year 2 on their rookie deal are trending. The basic thinking would be: 1) Rookie QBs are not fully equipped to win in year 1 and their team's record will suffer fot it. The highly drafted QBs almost always play in year 1 but teams do not fully prepare them to do so. It's like they are afraid to let the veterans on the team see the starting job handed to a rookie without them "earning" it, therefore the foolish effort to give the Petermans and McCarron's of the NFL the bulk of the reps. 2) QBs usually have multiple advantages going into year 2 as the starter that were not available to them in year 1 and they should be noticeably improved. The entire offseason, usually within the same offense as year 1, gives them many additional months to hone their craft. 3) Their relatively low salary cap numbers are compatible with building the roster around them. Year 2 improvement is almost a certainty for both the QB and the team. Teams having a sub .500 record where a rookie played at least 8 games went 12 of 14 at improving their year 2 record at least 1 game (bolded names in the table.) That elminates Mahomes, Luck, Dalton, Bridgewater and Griffen from consideration. Glennon and Gabbert were the only over/under "losers." That's 8 of 14 (excluding EJ) with at least a 3 game improvement and 7 of 14 with a 4 or more win improvement. So screw the sophomore jinx crap and dare to think big. A 4 game improvement gets the Bills in the playoffs and 5 or more threatens the Patriots for the divison. These kinds of improvements have been happening almost every year since the current CBA was in place. Why not the Bills in 2019? QB Drafted # Team Year 1 Wins Year 2 Wins Δ Goff 1 Rams 2016 4 2017 11 7 Trubisky 2 Bears 2017 5 2018 12 7 Watson 12 Texans 2017 4 2018 11 7 Ponder 12 Vikings 2011 3 2012 10 7 Wentz 2 Eagles 2016 7 2017 13 6 Mariotta 2 Titans 2015 3 2016 9 6 Carr 36 Raiders 2014 3 2015 7 4 Winston 1 Buccaneers 2015 6 2016 9 3 Manuel 16 Bills 2013 6 2014 9 3 Mahomes 10 Chiefs 2017 10 2018 12 2 Bortles 3 Jaguars 2014 3 2015 5 2 Tannehill 8 Dolphins 2012 7 2013 8 1 Newton 1 Panthers 2011 6 2012 7 1 Dalton 35 Bengals 2011 9 2012 10 1 Luck 1 Colts 2012 11 2013 11 0 Mayfield 1 Browns 2018 7 2019 ? 0 Darnold 3 Jets 2018 4 2019 ? 0 Allen 7 Bills 2018 6 2019 ? 0 Rosen 10 Cardinals 2018 3 2019 ? 0 Jackson 32 Ravens 2018 10 2019 ? 0 Glennon 73 Buccaneers 2013 4 2014 2 -2 Bridgewater 32 Vikings 2014 11 2015 8 -3 Gabbert 10 Jaguars 2011 5 2012 2 -3 Smith 39 Jets 2013 8 2014 4 -4 Griffen 2 Redskins 2012 10 2013 3 -7 Notes: Watson only started 6 games his rookie year. Jackson 7 games. Kizer got traded to the Packers after year 1 so he is irrelevant to the discussion. If you see any other inconsistencies/mistakes I will edit this post accordingly. This tweet is of a similar theme, just presented in terms of a year 1 vs. year 2 win%. Betting the over on the 6.5 over/under bet looks historically solid and there is no trend of a sophomore slump for highly drafted QBs in their 2nd year. Warren Sharp ✔ @SharpFootball As we see Josh Allen deal after watching Sam Darnold dominate last night, a reminder: Top-15 draft pick QB since 2012: • As rookies: 45-70 (39%) • In year two: 97-56 (63%) Increased record is the result of better stats: higher YPA, better TD:INT ratio, completion rate & rtg. 362 7:40 PM - Aug 16, 2019 Twitter Ads info and privacy 80 people are talking about this
JESSEFEFFER Posted August 19, 2019 Posted August 19, 2019 I could be wrong, but both of these would suggest that a 3 or 4 win improvement is a standard expectation for the team that starts a 2nd year QB that meets the criteria-- high draft pick (top 15.) Assuming injury doesn't play into this, it might be a bad sign for said QBs future if his team doesn't show that kind of improvement from year 1 to year 2.
Big Turk Posted August 19, 2019 Posted August 19, 2019 (edited) On 6/27/2019 at 5:18 PM, JESSEFEFFER said: I originally did this in consideration of the 6.5 over/under line for the Bills season but it also illustrates an important idea opposed to the myth to which you refer. Big changes in win totals for teams having a starting QB going into year 2 on their rookie deal are trending. The basic thinking would be: 1) Rookie QBs are not fully equipped to win in year 1 and their team's record will suffer fot it. The highly drafted QBs almost always play in year 1 but teams do not fully prepare them to do so. It's like they are afraid to let the veterans on the team see the starting job handed to a rookie without them "earning" it, therefore the foolish effort to give the Petermans and McCarron's of the NFL the bulk of the reps. 2) QBs usually have multiple advantages going into year 2 as the starter that were not available to them in year 1 and they should be noticeably improved. The entire offseason, usually within the same offense as year 1, gives them many additional months to hone their craft. 3) Their relatively low salary cap numbers are compatible with building the roster around them. Year 2 improvement is almost a certainty for both the QB and the team. Teams having a sub .500 record where a rookie played at least 8 games went 12 of 14 at improving their year 2 record at least 1 game (bolded names in the table.) That elminates Mahomes, Luck, Dalton, Bridgewater and Griffen from consideration. Glennon and Gabbert were the only over/under "losers." That's 8 of 14 (excluding EJ) with at least a 3 game improvement and 7 of 14 with a 4 or more win improvement. So screw the sophomore jinx crap and dare to think big. A 4 game improvement gets the Bills in the playoffs and 5 or more threatens the Patriots for the divison. These kinds of improvements have been happening almost every year since the current CBA was in place. Why not the Bills in 2019? QB Drafted # Team Year 1 Wins Year 2 Wins Δ Goff 1 Rams 2016 4 2017 11 7 Trubisky 2 Bears 2017 5 2018 12 7 Watson 12 Texans 2017 4 2018 11 7 Ponder 12 Vikings 2011 3 2012 10 7 Wentz 2 Eagles 2016 7 2017 13 6 Mariotta 2 Titans 2015 3 2016 9 6 Carr 36 Raiders 2014 3 2015 7 4 Winston 1 Buccaneers 2015 6 2016 9 3 Manuel 16 Bills 2013 6 2014 9 3 Mahomes 10 Chiefs 2017 10 2018 12 2 Bortles 3 Jaguars 2014 3 2015 5 2 Tannehill 8 Dolphins 2012 7 2013 8 1 Newton 1 Panthers 2011 6 2012 7 1 Dalton 35 Bengals 2011 9 2012 10 1 Luck 1 Colts 2012 11 2013 11 0 Mayfield 1 Browns 2018 7 2019 ? 0 Darnold 3 Jets 2018 4 2019 ? 0 Allen 7 Bills 2018 6 2019 ? 0 Rosen 10 Cardinals 2018 3 2019 ? 0 Jackson 32 Ravens 2018 10 2019 ? 0 Glennon 73 Buccaneers 2013 4 2014 2 -2 Bridgewater 32 Vikings 2014 11 2015 8 -3 Gabbert 10 Jaguars 2011 5 2012 2 -3 Smith 39 Jets 2013 8 2014 4 -4 Griffen 2 Redskins 2012 10 2013 3 -7 Notes: Watson only started 6 games his rookie year. Jackson 7 games. Kizer got traded to the Packers after year 1 so he is irrelevant to the discussion. If you see any other inconsistencies/mistakes I will edit this post accordingly. I agree and I think McDermott is a damn good coach who will potentially get coach of the year considerations this year. Edited August 19, 2019 by matter2003
Chandler#81 Posted August 19, 2019 Posted August 19, 2019 On 6/27/2019 at 5:57 PM, njbuff said: The biggest benefit for Allen is that he will be in the same system going into his second year. And he did alright as a rookie, considering the circumstances surrounding him last year, his rookie year. For me, Allen starting so many games last year is the best thing that could have happened by a team in total turmoil at the position. Much has been written how McBeane screwed up EVERYTHING by trading away McCarron and handing the reins to Pickpeterman. Josh wasn’t supposed to see the field all year, relegated to 3rd string reps in Camp. Obviously, he flashed A LOT, but also exposed a number of deficiencies in his game that wouldn’t have been seen otherwise until this year. Thus, he was able to work hard on these aspects and his growth into the teams leader was stepped up significantly. Did McBeane screw the pooch with the QB debacle last season? YouBetCha! Is the team in a far better position this year because of it. YouBetCha! 1
JESSEFEFFER Posted August 19, 2019 Posted August 19, 2019 42 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said: For me, Allen starting so many games last year is the best thing that could have happened by a team in total turmoil at the position. Much has been written how McBeane screwed up EVERYTHING by trading away McCarron and handing the reins to Pickpeterman. Josh wasn’t supposed to see the field all year, relegated to 3rd string reps in Camp. Obviously, he flashed A LOT, but also exposed a number of deficiencies in his game that wouldn’t have been seen otherwise until this year. Thus, he was able to work hard on these aspects and his growth into the teams leader was stepped up significantly. Did McBeane screw the pooch with the QB debacle last season? YouBetCha! Is the team in a far better position this year because of it. YouBetCha! This is a trust the process problem and result. If you want to make the rookie QB earn his spot in the pecking order (process) he has to compete with at least one other. If his competing with two others, then they are not doing everything they can to get the rookie prepared to play (problem.) I think the mistake that Beane acknowledged was not getting Derek Anderson in the room when they knew McCarron was being cut. Allowing the rookie QB to grow through even more adversity is the process result. If they had started Josh from the beginning and he struggled through games like he did with SD and GB, the rest of the players would be thinking/saying why not play Peterman? He looked great in practice and preseason. He gives us a better chance to win. As it played out, when Josh struggled no one was thinking that. That is a great process result, imo. 1
eball Posted August 19, 2019 Posted August 19, 2019 31 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said: For me, Allen starting so many games last year is the best thing that could have happened by a team in total turmoil at the position. Much has been written how McBeane screwed up EVERYTHING by trading away McCarron and handing the reins to Pickpeterman. Josh wasn’t supposed to see the field all year, relegated to 3rd string reps in Camp. Obviously, he flashed A LOT, but also exposed a number of deficiencies in his game that wouldn’t have been seen otherwise until this year. Thus, he was able to work hard on these aspects and his growth into the teams leader was stepped up significantly. Did McBeane screw the pooch with the QB debacle last season? YouBetCha! Is the team in a far better position this year because of it. YouBetCha! The only good thing you can say about how the QB room was managed last season is that they made sure there were no unreasonable expectations for Allen. I agree that looking back, all of the experience he gained last season is invaluable, and I do think Josh will be farther along entering this season than if he had held a clipboard all of last year. 1
DJB Posted August 19, 2019 Posted August 19, 2019 (edited) On 6/27/2019 at 2:18 PM, JESSEFEFFER said: QB Drafted # Team Year 1 Wins Year 2 Wins Δ Goff 1 Rams 2016 4 2017 11 7 Trubisky 2 Bears 2017 5 2018 12 7 Watson 12 Texans 2017 4 2018 11 7 Ponder 12 Vikings 2011 3 2012 10 7 Wentz 2 Eagles 2016 7 2017 13 6 Mariotta 2 Titans 2015 3 2016 9 6 Carr 36 Raiders 2014 3 2015 7 4 Winston 1 Buccaneers 2015 6 2016 9 3 Manuel 16 Bills 2013 6 2014 9 3 Mahomes 10 Chiefs 2017 10 2018 12 2 Bortles 3 Jaguars 2014 3 2015 5 2 Tannehill 8 Dolphins 2012 7 2013 8 1 Newton 1 Panthers 2011 6 2012 7 1 Dalton 35 Bengals 2011 9 2012 10 1 Luck 1 Colts 2012 11 2013 11 0 Mayfield 1 Browns 2018 7 2019 ? 0 Darnold 3 Jets 2018 4 2019 ? 0 Allen 7 Bills 2018 6 2019 ? 0 Rosen 10 Cardinals 2018 3 2019 ? 0 Jackson 32 Ravens 2018 10 2019 ? 0 Glennon 73 Buccaneers 2013 4 2014 2 -2 Bridgewater 32 Vikings 2014 11 2015 8 -3 Gabbert 10 Jaguars 2011 5 2012 2 -3 Smith 39 Jets 2013 8 2014 4 -4 Griffen 2 Redskins 2012 10 2013 3 -7 Notes: Watson only started 6 games his rookie year. Jackson 7 games. Kizer got traded to the Packers after year 1 so he is irrelevant to the discussion. If you see any other inconsistencies/mistakes I will edit this post accordingly. Nice work on the graph so thanks for that. Looking at it it appears that in my estimation to be considered a “franchise” QB the second year wins benchmark looks like 10 wins. The only anomaly appears to be Dalton but he also had one of the highest win marks year one indicating a strong Bengals team regardless. Newton is the other exception to the rule if you consider him a franchise guy as he didn’t meet the ten win benchmark year two. Personally I don’t as he is pretty terrible at throwing the ball and more running QB than throwing one. Ten wins by Allen this year will be huge and hopefully cement himself as a franchise QB. Edited August 19, 2019 by DJB
TigerJ Posted August 19, 2019 Posted August 19, 2019 The theory is that defensive coordinators have no tape on rookie QBs and that makes it harder to defend against their strengths or take advantage of their weaknesses. That's probably a dubious theory to begin with because a rookie QB would have to be really amazing in some area to throw a defensive coordinator that much or really terrible in others to enable a DC to neutralize him. Anyway, by their second year, there is ample tape on a QB so DCs are going to be able to more effectively game plan. I don't think many believe it's typical for a QB to get worse in his sophomore campaign.
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted August 19, 2019 Posted August 19, 2019 (edited) Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen dead last in PFF’s 2019 NFL starting quarterback rankings Like Rosen, Allen had a rough supporting cast as a rookie, though his uneven play resembled what he showed at Wyoming. He finished with the No. 25 overall grade at 65.3, showing off the expected big arm that led to the No. 12 percentage of big-time throws, but also the poor decision-making and inaccuracy that led to a No. 30 ranking at avoiding turnover-worthy plays. There are similarities to Lamar Jackson as they both have throw-for-throw accuracy concerns (Allen ranked 33rd out of 35 qualifiers after ranking poorly in college), but there are avenues for future success. Allen’s best bet is continuing to make the big plays down the field while complementing with the rushing ability that saw him rush for a league-high 508 yards on scrambles while posting the No. 4 rushing grade among quarterbacks, at 81.4. A new group of playmakers may give Allen a few more open throws to help with the accuracy issues, and he looks like a quarterback who will struggle with week-to-week consistency but will put together monster stretches of play that will make life difficult on opposing defenses. Edited August 19, 2019 by DaBillsFanSince1973 1
Ralonzo Posted August 19, 2019 Posted August 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said: Pffffff... So, Rosen is dead last statistically in 2018 and showed nothing to give us hope. But we'll put him ahead of Allen who actually charted some big-play ability behind just about as lousy an OL and who can hurt you with his legs which is why we ranked Lamar so much higher than either.
JESSEFEFFER Posted August 19, 2019 Posted August 19, 2019 This is the product of one writer for PFF but it is odd that PFF (I think it was them) had Josh as their #14 over the last half of the season. I just don't see how having him in a group with Keenum and Flacco makes any sense.
jletha Posted August 19, 2019 Posted August 19, 2019 On 6/28/2019 at 2:56 PM, C.Biscuit97 said: He helped 2 qbs who weren’t highly thought of (they won’t have been at NDSU and Wyoming if they were) and helped them develop into top 10 picks. I’d argue that is the definition of good coaching. Hopefully after this year, we can stop with all the excuse making for Allen, right? Well Carson Wentz wasnt even the starter when Craig Bohl was the coach so while Im sure he had a hand in developing him, Carson did the majority of his developing on his own/after he left for Wyoming. Allen was developed under him though but everyone agreed that Josh was extremely raw as a passer and his main draw was his high ceiling because of his size, athleticiscm and arm strength, none of that is a product of coaching. So Im not gonna anoint Craig Bohl as some QB magician. I think its probably coincidence more than anything. Look at Lincoln Riley. He just developed two back-to-back #1 overall picks.
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted August 19, 2019 Posted August 19, 2019 (edited) 34 minutes ago, Ralonzo said: So, Rosen is dead last statistically in 2018 and showed nothing to give us hope. But we'll put him ahead of Allen who actually charted some big-play ability behind just about as lousy an OL and who can hurt you with his legs which is why we ranked Lamar so much higher than either. all he has to do is use the new OL/WR corps to his advantage. make better decisions with the ball rather then run and help lead the team to wins and it will/should shut all the critics up. sounds simple and will be a lot of work but I have confidence he will have a much better 2nd season. Edited August 19, 2019 by DaBillsFanSince1973 1
NoHuddleKelly12 Posted August 19, 2019 Posted August 19, 2019 5 hours ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said: all he has to do is use the new OL/WR corps to his advantage. make better decisions with the ball rather then run and help lead the team to wins and it will/should shut all the critics up. sounds simple and will be a lot of work but I have confidence he will have a much better 2nd season. Agree totally. Going 9/11 against the Panthers including 5/5 targets to Beasley, bodes well for that prediction already, at least in terms of his mindset! (I know, I know, preseason--but I'd rather be trying to downplay good preseason play than justify a poor showing) 1
C.Biscuit97 Posted August 19, 2019 Posted August 19, 2019 (edited) 5 hours ago, jletha said: Well Carson Wentz wasnt even the starter when Craig Bohl was the coach so while Im sure he had a hand in developing him, Carson did the majority of his developing on his own/after he left for Wyoming. Allen was developed under him though but everyone agreed that Josh was extremely raw as a passer and his main draw was his high ceiling because of his size, athleticiscm and arm strength, none of that is a product of coaching. So Im not gonna anoint Craig Bohl as some QB magician. I think its probably coincidence more than anything. Look at Lincoln Riley. He just developed two back-to-back #1 overall picks. Bohl became Wyoming’s head coach in 2015. Wentz was his starting qb at NDSU in 2014. https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/carson-wentz-1.html and I stand by my point. Developing two top 10 pick qbs at NDSU and Wyoming is amazing and shows the myth that Allen received bad coaching. And if Allen has a sophomore slump, he might be out of the nfl. Edited August 19, 2019 by C.Biscuit97
jletha Posted August 19, 2019 Posted August 19, 2019 (edited) 25 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: Bohl became Wyoming’s head coach in 2015. Wentz was his starting qb at NDSU in 2014. https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/carson-wentz-1.html and I stand by my point. Developing two top 10 pick qbs at NDSU and Wyoming is amazing and shows the myth that Allen received bad coaching. And if Allen has a sophomore slump, he might be out of the nfl. Bohl was in Wyoming in 2014. But that doesnt matter really IMO. Yes Bohl certainly played a part in getting both of them drafted into the NFL. He certainly isnt a schlub but Im also not going to call Bohl anything spectacular either. I think that fact that Allen was so raw as a prospect coming out shows that the level of coaching he received was good but not the best. I think better coach would have won more games. Good recruiting tool for Bohl though Edited August 19, 2019 by jletha
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