The myth of the sophomore QB slump

[Buffalo716]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/georgetownsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2013/09/08/the-sophomore-slump-myth-or-fact-nfl-edition/amp/

 

I know the article is 2 years old but it still gets the point across. There was a new one written but I couldn't find it anymore

 

Not every single QB gets better in every statistical category there sophomore year... But the QBs who do last in the league show marked improvement from year 1-2 with some outliers

 

I would not be expecting a sophomore slump from Josh Allen

 

We added  a top 5 center , a good veteran tackle, A few Good receivers and had a good draft

 

Allen is 1 year along in the system and should be more comfortable. We added speed in Brown and dependability in Beasely and Allen shouldn't be running for his life

 

I can see 3500 passing yards 25 TDs with 850 rushing and 7TDs with Josh arriving on the scene

 

The myth of the sophomore slump for QBs hasn't actually existed since 84

 

I expect Allen to take a huge leap and surprise the NFL

[JESSEFEFFER]

I originally did this in consideration of the 6.5 over/under line for the Bills season but it also illustrates an important idea opposed to the myth to which you refer.  Big changes in win totals for teams having a starting QB  going into year 2 on their rookie deal are trending.  The basic thinking would be:

 

1) Rookie QBs are not fully equipped to win in year 1 and their team's record will suffer fot it.  The highly drafted QBs almost always play in year 1 but teams do not fully prepare them to do so.  It's like they are afraid to let the veterans on the team see the starting job handed to a rookie without them "earning" it, therefore the foolish effort to give the Petermans and McCarron's of the NFL the bulk of the reps.

 

2) QBs usually have multiple advantages going into year 2 as the starter that were not available to them in year 1 and they should be noticeably improved.  The entire offseason, usually within the same offense as year 1, gives them many additional months to hone their craft.

 

3) Their relatively low salary cap numbers are compatible with building the roster around them. 

 

Year 2 improvement is almost a certainty for both the QB and the team.  Teams having a sub .500 record where a rookie played at least 8 games went  12 of 14 at improving their year 2 record at least 1 game (bolded names in the table.)  That elminates Mahomes, Luck, Dalton, Bridgewater and Griffen from consideration.  Glennon and Gabbert were the only over/under "losers."  That's 8 of 14 (excluding EJ) with at least a 3 game improvement and 7 of 14 with a 4 or more win improvement.  So screw the sophomore jinx crap and dare to think big.  A 4 game improvement gets the Bills in the playoffs and 5 or more threatens the Patriots for the divison.  These kinds of improvements have been happening almost every year since the current CBA was in place.  Why not the Bills in 2019?

 

QB	Drafted #	Team	Year 1	Wins	Year 2	Wins	Δ
Goff	1	Rams	2016	4	2017	11	7
Trubisky	2	Bears	2017	5	2018	12	7
Watson	12	Texans	2017	4	2018	11	7
Ponder	12	Vikings	2011	3	2012	10	7
Wentz	2	Eagles	2016	7	2017	13	6
Mariotta	2	Titans	2015	3	2016	9	6
Carr	36	Raiders	2014	3	2015	7	4
Winston	1	Buccaneers	2015	6	2016	9	3
Manuel	16	Bills	2013	6	2014	9	3
Mahomes	10	Chiefs	2017	10	2018	12	2
Bortles	3	Jaguars	2014	3	2015	5	2
Tannehill	8	Dolphins	2012	7	2013	8	1
Newton	1	Panthers	2011	6	2012	7	1
Dalton	35	Bengals	2011	9	2012	10	1
Luck	1	Colts	2012	11	2013	11	0
Mayfield	1	Browns	2018	7	2019	?	0
Darnold	3	Jets	2018	4	2019	?	0
Allen	7	Bills	2018	6	2019	?	0
Rosen	10	Cardinals	2018	3	2019	?	0
Jackson	32	Ravens	2018	10	2019	?	0
Glennon	73	Buccaneers	2013	4	2014	2	-2
Bridgewater	32	Vikings	2014	11	2015	8	-3
Gabbert	10	Jaguars	2011	5	2012	2	-3
Smith	39	Jets	2013	8	2014	4	-4
Griffen	2	Redskins	2012	10	2013	3	-7

 

Notes:

Watson only started 6 games his rookie year.

Jackson 7 games.

Kizer got traded to the Packers after year 1 so he is irrelevant to the discussion.

 

If you see any other inconsistencies/mistakes I will edit this post accordingly.

Edited June 28, 2019 by JESSEFEFFER

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

I originally did this in consideration of the 6.5 over/under line for the Bills season but it also illustrates an important idea opposed to the myth to which you refer.  Big changes in win totals for teams having a starting QB  going into year 2 on their rookie deal are trending.  The basic thinking would be:

 

1) Rookie QBs are not fully equipped to win in year 1 and their team's record will suffer fot it.  The highly drafted QBs almost always play in year 1 but teams do not fully prepare them to do so.  It's like they are afraid to let the veterans on the team see the starting job handed to a rookie without them "earning" it, therefore the foolish effort to give the Petermans and McCarron's of the NFL the bulk of the reps.

 

2) QBs usually have multiple advantages going into year 2 as the starter that were not available to them in year 1 and they should be noticeably improved.  The entire offseason, usually within the same offense as year 1, gives them many additional months to hone their craft.

 

3) Their relatively low salary cap numbers are compatible with building the roster around them. 

 

Year 2 improvement is almost a certainty for both the QB and the team.  Teams having a sub .500 record where a rookie played at least 8 games went  12 of 14 at improving their year 2 record at least 1 game.  That elminates Mahomes, Luck, Dalton, Bridgewater and Griffen from consideration.  Glennon and Gabbert were the only over/under "losers."  That's 8 of 14 (excluding EJ) with at least a 3 game improvement and 7 of 14 with a 4 or more win improvement.  So screw the sophomore jinx crap and dare to think big.  A 4 game improvement gets the Bills in the playoffs and 5 or more threatens the Patriots for the divison.  These kinds of improvements have been happening almost every year since the current CBA was in place.  Why not the Bills in 2019?

 

QB	Drafted #	Team	Year 1	Wins	Year 2	Wins	Δ
Goff	1	Rams	2016	4	2017	11	7
Trubisky	2	Bears	2017	5	2018	12	7
Watson	12	Texans	2017	4	2018	11	7
Ponder	12	Vikings	2011	3	2012	10	7
Wentz	2	Eagles	2016	7	2017	13	6
Mariotta	2	Titans	2015	3	2016	9	6
Carr	36	Raiders	2014	3	2015	7	4
Winston	1	Buccaneers	2015	6	2016	9	3
Manuel	16	Bills	2013	6	2014	9	3
Mahomes	10	Chiefs	2017	10	2018	12	2
Bortles	3	Jaguars	2014	3	2015	5	2
Tannehill	8	Dolphins	2012	7	2013	8	1
Newton	1	Panthers	2011	6	2012	7	1
Dalton	35	Bengals	2011	9	2012	10	1
Luck	1	Colts	2012	11	2013	11	0
Mayfield	1	Browns	2018	7	2019	?	0
Darnold	3	Jets	2018	4	2019	?	0
Allen	7	Bills	2018	6	2019	?	0
Rosen	10	Cardinals	2018	3	2019	?	0
Jackson	32	Ravens	2018	10	2019	?	0
Glennon	73	Buccaneers	2013	4	2014	2	-2
Bridgewater	32	Vikings	2014	11	2015	8	-3
Gabbert	10	Jaguars	2011	5	2012	2	-3
Smith	39	Jets	2013	8	2014	4	-4
Griffen	2	Redskins	2012	10	2013	3	-7

 

Notes:

Watson only started 6 games his rookie year.

Jackson 7 games.

Kizer got traded to the Packers after year 1 so he is irrelevant to the discussion.

 

If you see any other inconsistencies/mistakes I will edit this post accordingly.

I agree

 

Successful QBs take good strides year 2

 

Allen will obviously make mistakes but I think his true potential will shine this season

[njbuff]

The biggest benefit for Allen is that he will be in the same system going into his second year.

 

And he did alright as a rookie, considering the circumstances surrounding him last year, his rookie year.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...I'm lookin' forward to Josh having a similar "Sophomore Slump" to Mahome's 2nd year(COUGH)......stay tuned.......

[Augie]

49 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I agree

 

Successful QBs take good strides year 2

 

Allen will obviously make mistakes but I think his true potential will shine this season

 

With a QB the growth is much more mental than physical. We saw it with Allen over the course of last season. I expect him to step up from what we saw last season in general. I don’t expect a Dawkins type of slump. I expect him to work like a pro’s pro, but I can only pray that he has what it takes to read the D pre and post snap, make the accurate throw, etc that we need to get to the next level. It’s almost impossible not to love the guy and cheer for him. 

[Capco]

I always thought sophomore slumps only applied to certain positions, and QB wasn't traditionally one of them.  

[BillsfaninSB]

Did Jackson have 10 wins last year?  Thought he only started 7. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

I originally did this in consideration of the 6.5 over/under line for the Bills season but it also illustrates an important idea opposed to the myth to which you refer.  Big changes in win totals for teams having a starting QB  going into year 2 on their rookie deal are trending.  The basic thinking would be:

 

1) Rookie QBs are not fully equipped to win in year 1 and their team's record will suffer fot it.  The highly drafted QBs almost always play in year 1 but teams do not fully prepare them to do so.  It's like they are afraid to let the veterans on the team see the starting job handed to a rookie without them "earning" it, therefore the foolish effort to give the Petermans and McCarron's of the NFL the bulk of the reps.

 

2) QBs usually have multiple advantages going into year 2 as the starter that were not available to them in year 1 and they should be noticeably improved.  The entire offseason, usually within the same offense as year 1, gives them many additional months to hone their craft.

 

3) Their relatively low salary cap numbers are compatible with building the roster around them. 

 

Year 2 improvement is almost a certainty for both the QB and the team.  Teams having a sub .500 record where a rookie played at least 8 games went  12 of 14 at improving their year 2 record at least 1 game.  That elminates Mahomes, Luck, Dalton, Bridgewater and Griffen from consideration.  Glennon and Gabbert were the only over/under "losers."  That's 8 of 14 (excluding EJ) with at least a 3 game improvement and 7 of 14 with a 4 or more win improvement.  So screw the sophomore jinx crap and dare to think big.  A 4 game improvement gets the Bills in the playoffs and 5 or more threatens the Patriots for the divison.  These kinds of improvements have been happening almost every year since the current CBA was in place.  Why not the Bills in 2019?

 

QB	Drafted #	Team	Year 1	Wins	Year 2	Wins	Δ
Goff	1	Rams	2016	4	2017	11	7
Trubisky	2	Bears	2017	5	2018	12	7
Watson	12	Texans	2017	4	2018	11	7
Ponder	12	Vikings	2011	3	2012	10	7
Wentz	2	Eagles	2016	7	2017	13	6
Mariotta	2	Titans	2015	3	2016	9	6
Carr	36	Raiders	2014	3	2015	7	4
Winston	1	Buccaneers	2015	6	2016	9	3
Manuel	16	Bills	2013	6	2014	9	3
Mahomes	10	Chiefs	2017	10	2018	12	2
Bortles	3	Jaguars	2014	3	2015	5	2
Tannehill	8	Dolphins	2012	7	2013	8	1
Newton	1	Panthers	2011	6	2012	7	1
Dalton	35	Bengals	2011	9	2012	10	1
Luck	1	Colts	2012	11	2013	11	0
Mayfield	1	Browns	2018	7	2019	?	0
Darnold	3	Jets	2018	4	2019	?	0
Allen	7	Bills	2018	6	2019	?	0
Rosen	10	Cardinals	2018	3	2019	?	0
Jackson	32	Ravens	2018	10	2019	?	0
Glennon	73	Buccaneers	2013	4	2014	2	-2
Bridgewater	32	Vikings	2014	11	2015	8	-3
Gabbert	10	Jaguars	2011	5	2012	2	-3
Smith	39	Jets	2013	8	2014	4	-4
Griffen	2	Redskins	2012	10	2013	3	-7

 

Notes:

Watson only started 6 games his rookie year.

Jackson 7 games.

Kizer got traded to the Packers after year 1 so he is irrelevant to the discussion.

 

If you see any other inconsistencies/mistakes I will edit this post accordingly.

 

Maybe not understanding, but how can Jackson have 10 wins when he only started 6 games and lost one of them?

Otherwise interesting stuff

[Richard Noggin]

6 hours ago, Augie said:

 

With a QB the growth is much more mental than physical. We saw it with Allen over the course of last season. I expect him to step up from what we saw last season in general. I don’t expect a Dawkins type of slump. I expect him to work like a pro’s pro, but I can only pray that he has what it takes to read the D pre and post snap, make the accurate throw, etc that we need to get to the next level. It’s almost impossible not to love the guy and cheer for him. 

This is it right here. Balanced but hopeful. 

[Buffalo716]

7 hours ago, Augie said:

 

With a QB the growth is much more mental than physical. We saw it with Allen over the course of last season. I expect him to step up from what we saw last season in general. I don’t expect a Dawkins type of slump. I expect him to work like a pro’s pro, but I can only pray that he has what it takes to read the D pre and post snap, make the accurate throw, etc that we need to get to the next level. It’s almost impossible not to love the guy and cheer for him. 

Obviously it's 90% mental

 

There are hundreds and hundreds of QBs with amazing physical gifts who couldn't figure it out in the pros

 

Brady came in scrawny and with a noodle arm and was successful early because he was mentally ahead of the curve

[row_33]

Lazy journalism from the past...

 

A parallel was SI putting 6 QBs on the cover in a given season and guaranteeing that at least 5 had a “cover jinx” because at most one would win the SB

 

second year means that opponents will prep much deeper for the QB, the more you play the more you risk a major injury, the game is too violent and risky to expect a smooth escalator ride to Canton for every good rookie season

 

 

 

[TAinLack.]

For Allen in his second year, he has a rebuilt offensive line, he has some weapons to throw to so he won't have to run as much, he has a better running backfield.  He must be looking forward this "sophomore" season..,  I know I am!

[Thurman#1]

Your prediction is way way off from what the article suggests is likely.

 

More, your argument that "But the QBs who do last in the league show marked improvement from year 1-2 with some outliers," is self-selecting. It's a bit like saying, "those who turn out to be good are pretty good."

 

The whole article is self-selecting, as it only counts guys who got a lot of reps in both the first and second years. Guys who actually had a sophomore slump might well have been taken out and not gotten enough reps to be included, EJ Manuel for example.

 

More, after the self-selection the article predicts improvement for the next year's guys ... Tannehill and Weeden. Who didn't improve. 

 

Beyond that, the average - again after the self-selection - is modest improvement. But you then predict numbers that would be a gigantic improvement and suggest a "huge leap." The article doesn't suggest that. That's your confirmation bias.

 

I tend to agree about a relative lack of sophomore slump. Most NFL players improve their second year. The question will probably be how much.

Edited June 28, 2019 by Thurman#1

[eball]

I don't know about any slump or myth, but comparing how Allen will go into this season with how he went into last season is freaking night and day.  I think we should all be surprised (if not shocked) if Josh doesn't take a big jump forward.

 

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, eball said:

I don't know about any slump or myth, but comparing how Allen will go into this season with how he went into last season is freaking night and day.  I think we should all be surprised (if not shocked) if Josh doesn't take a big jump forward.

 

 

Absolutely. And we should be worried if he doesn't. 

[eball]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Absolutely. And we should be worried if he doesn't. 

 

Yep.  I've been big on the "Allen never got good coaching until now" bandwagon but by the time the regular season starts he will have had roughly 20 months of preparation and coaching to be an NFL QB and it's time to see the results.

[mjt328]

Quarterbacks generally don't have "sophomore slumps" because very few have great success as rookies to begin with.

 

I find that most QBs who come out of the gate HOT, usually do so with their legs and not their arm.  Guys like Vince Young, Robert Griffin III, and even Tim Tebow to some extent.  The general rule against a rookie QB is to send lots of pressure.  And it probably works 90 percent of the time.  But the guys with some real athletic ability may be able to escape from the rush and do some damage.

 

By Year 2, defensive coordinators have generally caught on.  Instead of heavy blitzing, they play contain, force running QBs to stay in the pocket and win by throwing.  At the same time, there is usually lots of pressure on the offensive side for the young QB to show some progression as a passer.  So instead of just letting him "make plays" the coaching staff also pushes him to stay in the pocket and win by throwing.

 

Opponents are going to have a plan to keep Josh Allen (same with Lamar Jackson) in the pocket this year.  It's very likely his rushing numbers take a big hit.  Let's just hope he's gotten better as a passer.

 

 

[JESSEFEFFER]

8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Maybe not understanding, but how can Jackson have 10 wins when he only started 6 games and lost one of them?

Otherwise interesting stuff

This was looking at what happened to the TEAM"S win total from year 1 to year 2 in a situation defined as:

 

1) a QB on rookie deal

2) starting ~ half the games or more of year 1  

3) the team having a sub .500 record 

4) entering year 2 as the likely starter.

 

This was related to the the Bills over/under at 6.5 wins and how likley it would be for the team to improve at least 1 win, i.e. how often  a one win improvement in the team's win total was achieved since the current CBA.  The answer was 12 of 14, with Gabbert and Glennon failing to "win the bet."   A 1 win improvement is a very low Barr for Josh to clear.   So, of the 2018 1st rounders, the Ravens won 10 so Jackson is out and Rosen was traded so he is out.  That leaves Allen, Darnold and Mayfield as candidates that fit the situational criteria.  

 

But , a rather striking trend included in this pool is the number of of times that the teams improved their win total by 4 or more.  That was 7 of 14.  So half of these situations showed some big improvements in team win totals.  Thus, my optimistic suggestion that thinking big about this season is not such a radical idea.  

 

The premise is that bad teams draft the more talented  QB prospects.  That these prospects are likley to play in year 1 even though they are not fully prepared to do so.  Entering year 2 gives them many more resources to be better prepared.  The current CBA means that a QB on a rookie deal leaves considerable more salary cap room to improve the roster.  The trends are that all their teams will show at least a 1 win improvement and one or two will show a win improvement of 4 or more.

 

 

Edited June 28, 2019 by JESSEFEFFER

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Absolutely. And we should be worried if he doesn't. 

 

1 hour ago, eball said:

 

Yep.  I've been big on the "Allen never got good coaching until now" bandwagon but by the time the regular season starts he will have had roughly 20 months of preparation and coaching to be an NFL QB and it's time to see the results.

 

I agree with you guys, and I also think it's important that we define what results we're expecting to see.

 

For me, it's 3 things:

1) I expect to see more decisiveness in the passing game

2) I expect to see a less rushed setup/delivery on quick throws and when things break down

3) I expect to see a greater willingness to take what the defense gives 

 

If Josh shows me those 3 things, I'll go ahead and declare him a franchise QB in the making.