Daniel Jeremiah’s Top 5 Offenses and Defenses for 2019

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I think it is more like what is the justification to even say that when

 

We were top 5 last year

We biult on top of what we had last year as far as improvements

Our schedule is easier

 

If your gonna say we are gonna be worse....then give me a REASON why we are gonna be worse that makes sense

 

...strictly his opinion which he does not justify......and I could care less......we gave up what, 3 or 4 200+ yard rushing games last year?.....I'd take a solid #6-10 that NEVER did that versus fallacious, statistical ranking last year which I thnk was based one on stat(correct me if I'm wrong)....

[Ronin]

2 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

 

Good points. It seems to me that YPG and overall yards in the litmus most often used, but without knowing what DJ is specifically using in the OP, I suppose we're in an apples and oranges thing. 

 

Also, to counter some of your points- YPG is more valuable for overall assessment in my opinion because it's a larger sample size that can absorb outliers better. We had several games where we shat the bed horribly which greatly affected all of the metrics you are pointing to. Overall throughout the year, I think we were better than those examples. 

 

Plus, our nearly 20ypg passing advantage ahead of the second place team is, I think, a reason enough to put us in the top 5. 

 

I hear ya, but I have to ask, how much of our passing D was predicated upon the notion that our rushing D was very average?  (ranked 16th in rushing yards allowed and in a 3-way tie for 25th in rushing TDs allowed)  Difficult to say w/o an extended analysis.  

 

Of our 6 games with the most rushing yards allowed though we lost 5 of the 6.  In those 5 losses we were outscored by an average of 32-8.  No reason for opponents to pass the ball although several teams did effectively anyway in those losses.  

 

I thought that last season was on of our least consistent ever.  Inconsistency is a sign of poor coaching.  Good coaching will consistently get whatever can be gotten out of a team, win or lose.  We were all over the map on D.  

 

The one area where there was consistency was in our losses.  Of the 11 games in which we allowed 20+ points we were 1-10.  When we allowed 17 or fewer, which were all against teams with below average scoring offenses, we were 5-0.  One of those games was with Barkley at QB, our best QB'd game all season.  

 

Average margin of defeat in those games was 18.7, which facilitates a diminished need to throw the ball for opponents.  

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, Bangarang said:

 

You do realize that he actually was an NFL scout before going to television right?

 

I don’t get this hostility towards him. He’s one of the better media people out there. Bills fans are so easily offended over such nonsense.

 

 

He said something bad about the Bills. It's proof he's not smart. He's bad. Until he says something good about the Bills. Then he'll be good again.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

I hear ya, but I have to ask, how much of our passing D was predicated upon the notion that our rushing D was very average?  (ranked 16th in rushing yards allowed and in a 3-way tie for 25th in rushing TDs allowed)  Difficult to say w/o an extended analysis.  

 

Of our 6 games with the most rushing yards allowed though we lost 5 of the 6.  In those 5 losses we were outscored by an average of 32-8.  No reason for opponents to pass the ball although several teams did effectively anyway in those losses.  

 

I thought that last season was on of our least consistent ever.  Inconsistency is a sign of poor coaching.  Good coaching will consistently get whatever can be gotten out of a team, win or lose.  We were all over the map on D.  

 

The one area where there was consistency was in our losses.  Of the 11 games in which we allowed 20+ points we were 1-10.  When we allowed 17 or fewer, which were all against teams with below average scoring offenses, we were 5-0.  One of those games was with Barkley at QB, our best QB'd game all season.  

 

Average margin of defeat in those games was 18.7, which facilitates a diminished need to throw the ball for opponents.  

 

 

Nah, our pass defense was genuinely excellent.

 

You're right that total yards passing has that problem, that it's dependent on how often opponents pass.

 

But passer rating rests on how good you are when they do pass, not how much they pass on you. And the Bills were 3rd in the league in defensive passer rating. DVOA also doesn't factor in how often you pass. It's how well you pass. And the Bills defensive passing DVOA was 2nd best in the league.

 

Their pass defense was top-rate..

Edited June 27, 2019 by Thurman#1

[K-9]

Average number of rushing plays allowed per game, average yards per rush against, average yards per pass against, QB rating against, average yards per play given up. 

 

That’s all you need to know about what defenses are good or not.

 

When we improve our rush against metrics and red zone defense, we will be dominant. 

 

Right now, we are a very good defense. 

[GunnerBill]

DJ is a good scout and a good guy. 

 

I don't think the Bills are nailed on to be a top 5 defense. They have a chance but I don't think it is a sure thing. I think Jacksonville and Chicago are the right top two in terms of all round talent on defense. I am a little surprised to see Denver in his list (though the Fangio factor probably plays in). To me they are on the downslope. I see the Chargers and the Bills similarly. Talent all round on D, no obvious weaknesses. Dallas have some stars. They have pass rushers and they have the best young linebacking duo in the league. That said I think you can get at their DBs - Byron Jones apart. Not convinced any of their other DBs are more than passable starters. Other than the Bills the other two not in his list I'd throw in are Tennessee (a bit like the Bills in the sense not many "star names" but a lot of good football players and efficient team defense) and Indy, who if Justin Houston can give them some pass rush have the potential to be really good. 

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

DJ is a good scout and a good guy. 

 

I don't think the Bills are nailed on to be a top 5 defense. They have a chance but I don't think it is a sure thing. I think Jacksonville and Chicago are the right top two in terms of all round talent on defense. I am a little surprised to see Denver in his list (though the Fangio factor probably plays in). To me they are on the downslope. I see the Chargers and the Bills similarly. Talent all round on D, no obvious weaknesses. Dallas have some stars. They have pass rushers and they have the best young linebacking duo in the league. That said I think you can get at their DBs - Byron Jones apart. Not convinced any of their other DBs are more than passable starters. Other than the Bills the other two not in his list I'd throw in are Tennessee (a bit like the Bills in the sense not many "star names" but a lot of good football players and efficient team defense) and Indy, who if Justin Houston can give them some pass rush have the potential to be really good. 

I feel like our secondary has the chance to be the very best in the league......we have a good LB core that has the potential to be GREAT if Edmunds just continues his progression.

 

 

[YoloinOhio]

36 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I feel like our secondary has the chance to be the very best in the league......we have a good LB core that has the potential to be GREAT if Edmunds just continues his progression.

 

 

This I agree with. And people will tar and feather me, but Oliver’s production in Kyle’s position could launch this thing further than it was last year. They are losing a lot with Kyle gone... but gaining a lot too 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

#2 ranking last year was a mirage.  They can't rush the passer and the turnovers were down. They will struggle to be a top 10 unit in any measure. Hughes is a year older, Murphy is a joke, Oliver is a rookie, and Lawson just has no pass rushing moves. Linebackers are suspect across the board. Lots of potential in Edmunds but long way to go and Milano is coming off injury. DB opposite White on paper looks better but still uncertain.

If offense puts up more points, opposing offenses will pass more and put up more yards. Just don't see a top 5 defensive unit

[Big Blitz]

Lame lists.

 

Chiefs lose Morse, Hunt, and Hill for likely 6 games.  By game 2 Sammy will be hurt.  No chance they are a top 5 Offense.  If they are than just crown Mahomes the GOAT now.

 

I see the Rams and Eagles taking a step back also.  

 

And the Steelers will be a top 5 offense.  Hard to see the Packers not up there in the top 5 either.  

 

My Top 5 Offenses:

 

1. Chargers

2. Steelers

3. Browns

4. Packers

5. Colts 

 

 

Also, the Redskins can be a top 5 defense. 

 

My top 5 defenses:

 

1. Vikings 

2. Bills 

3. Bears 

4. Chargers 

5. Redskins

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

11 hours ago, Foxx said:

except that... you know..... the official ranking for defenses has used yardage given up as the determinate since .... oh, i don't know, forever?

 

For some, namely those on the Rex Ryan to canton bandwagon.  But we all know what reality looks like. 

 

But USA Today football analysis aside, they certainly don’t hand the Lombardi to the team that accumulates the most yards. 

 

Points.... all the ever mattered all that ever will. 

 

Top defenses keep opponents out of out of the end zone. 

 

Edited June 27, 2019 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

Lame lists.

 

Chiefs lose Morse, Hunt, and Hill for likely 6 games.  By game 2 Sammy will be hurt.  No chance they are a top 5 Offense.  If they are than just crown Mahomes the GOAT now.

 

I see the Rams and Eagles taking a step back also.  

 

And the Steelers will be a top 5 offense.  Hard to see the Packers not up there in the top 5 either.  

 

My Top 5 Offenses:

 

1. Chargers

2. Steelers

3. Browns

4. Packers

5. Colts 

 

 

Also, the Redskins can be a top 5 defense. 

 

My top 5 defenses:

 

1. Vikings 

2. Bills 

3. Bears 

4. Chargers 

5. Redskins

 

Unless Drew Brees's arm has fallen off the Saints are a top 5 offense. I am actually not sure the Packers will me. Call me a sceptic on their coaching hire. 

[BigDingus]

We were second overall in total yards allowed, but were far from 2nd overall in many other categories. 

And yards allowed isn't always the best metric for good defenses. Think back to 2014 when we were 1st in the league in sacks with 54 total, 3rd overall in takeaways, had 3 of 4 linemen in the Pro Bowl and were just dominating people (including 3 straight games where we made HOF QB's look terrible in Rodgers, Brady & Manning), and had the 4th best scoring defense.

 

I believe we were only ranked 4th overall in total yards allowed that year. There's no way our defense was anywhere close to as good as it was in 2014, yet we're ranked higher due to pundits using total yards allowed as the main metric cited. 

[machine gun kelly]

I gave up on worrying about how people rank us in power rankings and all those lists.  We’ll see by the end of the year.

[thebandit27]

11 hours ago, K-9 said:

Average number of rushing plays allowed per game, average yards per rush against, average yards per pass against, QB rating against, average yards per play given up. 

 

 

The only metric I look at in addition to the above is average number of 1st downs allowed per game.

[K-9]

13 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

The only metric I look at in addition to the above is average number of 1st downs allowed per game.

And I suspect if you look, you’ll find a strong correlation between first downs allowed and the other stats mentioned. Stands to reason. 

 

I like the new age of analytics and the metrics being measured and the context they help to provide, but all I really need to know is contained in the stats we are discussing here. 

[dave mcbride]

17 hours ago, Foxx said:

except that... you know..... the official ranking for defenses has used yardage given up as the determinate since .... oh, i don't know, forever?

They were second in DVOA, which IS regarded as a good measure.

17 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

Not sure that's accurate.  We were good in some areas and not so good in others.  Everyone seems to default to yardage D despite the fact that game outcomes aren't measured in yards, they're measured in points.  

 

We ranked 18th in scoring D.

30th in Red Zone D. 

We ranked 14th in TDs allowed, very average.  

Our pass-rush was problematic although our pass-D was pretty good in most indicators otherwise.  Kyle, Lorax, and Hughes, three players that predate McBeane were responsible for about half of them.  Kyle's no longer here, Lorax is old, and even Hughes is into his back-9.  

We ranked 20th in plays/point-scored, meaning that we were 20th in terms of how many plays it took on average fro opponents to score.  

Those things don't really align with a 2nd yardage D ranking.  They have to be reconciled.  

 

Again, there were some good indicators, primarily in the pass D department where McD specializes and where most of our resources have gone to, certainly the better performing draft picks and free agents.   

 

None of that has to do with "our defense being on the field more often than other teams," to the contrary in fact.  We had the 5th fewest plays run against us.  Our time-of-possession was above average.  

 

Either way, there were a number of areas where we regressed, points against stayed exactly the same in ranking, 18th, despite allowing 15 more points last year, a point/game.  

DVOA, which is MUCH more indicative than either raw points or yards. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

 

if you’re interested, reado FO’s explainer.

Edited June 27, 2019 by dave mcbride

[dave mcbride]

59 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

The only metric I look at in addition to the above is average number of 1st downs allowed per game.

My favorite single stat is collective opposing team passer rating.

[mannc]

32 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

My favorite single stat is collective opposing team passer rating.

I’ll go with opponents’ yards per pass attempt.  Top 4 last year:  Chicago, Baltimore, Buffalo, Jacksonville.

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, mannc said:

I’ll go with opponents’ yards per pass attempt.  Top 4 last year:  Chicago, Baltimore, Buffalo, Jacksonville.

 

That feels the right list.