What would need to occur to extend or fire McDermott?

[Gugny]

Fired:  Less than 5 wins.

Extended: Double digit regular season wins and a playoff win.

 

 

Edited June 26, 2019 by Gugny
None of your business!

[K-9]

Extend: walk on water

 

Fire: sink like a stone

[RyanC883]

18 hours ago, Bills92 said:

Extend: Playoffs and a victory in the playoffs

Fired:  Less than 6 wins assuming Allan is healthy for the majority of the season  (If he is hurt for any extended period of time..  then I think McBeane get a pass)

 

 

 

this.  Allen needs to be healthy for a proper analysis.   I think Extend happens with playoffs or a 10 win season even w/o playoffs.  I think under 6 wins with a healthy team is hot-seat time.  

[BubbaT]

Nothing football related will get him fired this year in my opinion. Nothing. He might be on the hot seat in 2020 but not this year. Misconduct in the workplace is about the only thing I can think of that would trigger a firing and it seems unimagineable to me but one never knows. 

[BmarvB]

It would take an epic 2 year collapse to get him canned, and another playoff appearance to get him extended

[BigBuff423]

1 hour ago, Ronin said:

 

I also wouldn't say "if Allen regresses," there's really not a whole lot of room for him to regress. 

 

 

 

I would respectfully disagree. Again, since I used that phrase in context of the final four games, his final four games were among the best we've seen from a QB as a whole on the Bills for a long time. Is it good enough? No, not really but can he regress back to his first several games type of play? I think he can regress to that. Cover1 did a phenomenal job (as they always do and NO I don't work for them) of showing his progress over the course of the season and specifically how his last quarter contrasted so profoundly with his first quarter of the season. Allen does need to get better and certainly more consistently better, but to say that he didn't show big gains in improvement over the course of the season and therefore by definition, CAN regress since he "pro-gressed" is fundamentally an illogical statement. 

 

All of that said, I agree with your larger premise: Allen must get better, should get better and the team as a whole needs to demonstrate they ARE better. 

[Ronin]

1 hour ago, BigBuff423 said:

I would respectfully disagree. Again, since I used that phrase in context of the final four games, his final four games were among the best we've seen from a QB as a whole on the Bills for a long time. Is it good enough? No, not really but can he regress back to his first several games type of play? I think he can regress to that. Cover1 did a phenomenal job (as they always do and NO I don't work for them) of showing his progress over the course of the season and specifically how his last quarter contrasted so profoundly with his first quarter of the season. Allen does need to get better and certainly more consistently better, but to say that he didn't show big gains in improvement over the course of the season and therefore by definition, CAN regress since he "pro-gressed" is fundamentally an illogical statement. 

 

All of that said, I agree with your larger premise: Allen must get better, should get better and the team as a whole needs to demonstrate they ARE better. 

 

Well, OK, everyone sees things differently.  But allow me to comment on that bolded part, which appears to be a heavy narrative here.  

 

To start, the meat of that "improvement" whether it's over the last four, six, whatever, is that single Miami game. I'm not sure that it's wise to put so much credence into a single game like that when the body-of-work otherwise is diametric to it.  

 

Allow me to sum up.  If we extrapolate his last four games over the course of a 16-game season, i.e., multiply by 4, we get:  

 

272 for 516 (52.7%), 3,404 Yards, 20 TDs, 20 INTs, 6.6 YPA, 5.6 Adj. YPA

 

I suppose one can argue that it's respectable for a rookie that came in with Allen's risks apart from those 20 INTs and low YPAs given his "arm strength," but at least it's not horrific.  

 

I don't think that there's been a QB for us that's played that poorly in passing in a long time.  

 

But here's the thing, here is the season equivalent of the first three of those four games you cite as improvement;  

 

272 for 549 (49.5%), 3,342 Yards, 11 TDs, 21 INTs, a 59.0 rating, 6.1 YPA, 4.7 Adj. YPA  

 

His Miami game stats extrapolated over 16 games are; 

 

272 for 416 (65.4%), 3,584 Yards, 48 TDs, 16 INTs, a 114.9 rating, 8.6 YPA, 9.2 Adj. YPA 

 

So yes, while the "last 4," or "last 6" were in fact technically an improvement over his first six games, I'm not sure that they warrant the confidence that they've created here and elsewhere.  His first 6 games were horrid and easily tracking for DFL in the entire league even lagging Rosen at the time.   

 

Those Miami stats obviously skew the last 4 or last 6 heavily, it's simply that people close their eyes to that.  I mean there's no way around 11 TDs and 21 INTs, there simply isn't and it's probably not wise to use a single game like that to generate such grandiose expectations.  Anyone can do it, but if we go and look up all the past QBs that have busted, we can almost always find such a game in their game logs.  In fact, Matt Leinart's and Vince Young's first seasons are all but a carbon copy of Allen's.  

 

Player	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Rate	Lng	Int	Sk	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	NY/A	ANY/A
Vince Young	184	357	51.5	2199	12	66.7	53	13	25	129	6.2	5.19	5.42	4.52
Matt Leinart	214	377	56.8	2547	11	74	58	12	21	158	6.8	5.91	6	5.2
Josh Allen	169	320	52.8	2074	10	67.9	75	12	28	213	6.5	5.42	5.35	4.37

 

Young's rushing was almost identical to Allen's as well.  

 

At some point some consistency has to factor into this nebulous "improvement."  Leinart was more consistent with 7 of 12 games with ratings of 76 or better while Allen had 8 of 12 games with ratings of less than 72.  Young and Allen were almost exact matches.  

 

Young threw a TD pass in 9 of 15 games, Leinart in 8 of 12, Allen in 7 of 12.  

 

It's something to consider, but just because everyone says that Allen improved after he came back from injury, while perhaps true, does not mean that overall he played well, he didn't.  It comes down to how much faith one has that the Miami game was more of a "coming out" than an anomaly.  

 

 

 

 

Edited June 26, 2019 by Ronin

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

2 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

What are the odds of that happening tho?  

 

I'd put them firmly at slim-to-nil.  

 

On the other hand, Barkely did post our best game last season as a QB.  Extrapolated over an entire season it would be 24 TDs, 0 INTs, 9.3 YPA, 10.7 AYPA, 117.4 Rating, 16 sacks, and average yardage production.  Just sayin'.  

 

Why do you think there's low odds in that?  What I mean by rest of team looking good, the defense was already looking good last year, so slight improvement there or even stay the same.  If the O-line looks like they know what they are doing, the new players look solid, Knox, Brown and Beasley look like good signings, and Singleley the RB looks like a good pick.  Granted if Allan struggles bad it would be hard to evaluate the WR either way, but regardless of Allens play can certainly judge the defense, O- line and RB.

[Rocky Landing]

Can’t see him getting fired until after the 2020 season, unless the team absolutely tanks before then. 

[Ronin]

18 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Why do you think there's low odds in that?  What I mean by rest of team looking good, the defense was already looking good last year, so slight improvement there or even stay the same.  If the O-line looks like they know what they are doing, the new players look solid, Knox, Brown and Beasley look like good signings, and Singleley the RB looks like a good pick.  Granted if Allan struggles bad it would be hard to evaluate the WR either way, but regardless of Allens play can certainly judge the defense, O- line and RB.

 

Yeah, I can see the possibility for confusion there, I should have stated that better.  I'll edit it. 

 

My "slim-to-nil" odds were of the team looking better or improving if as your assumption happens, namely that Allen busts.  If Allen busts I really don't envision any scenario where the team overall improves to such an extent that McD deflects heat calling for his firing.  

 

The offense including all the newbies won't be helping him at that point, which will leave only improvements to the D.  But Kyle's gone, Lorax is in his last season, Hughes is aging, none of them are his players and there isn't much after them that he brought on in the front-7 much less the DL.  Even if Oliver turns into the beast that many insist he'll become, which as you know I don't see, then how much that improves the D with essentially Oliver replacing Kyle remains to be seen, but it's a reach to suggest that it'll be enough to offset the incompetence on the offensive side.  

 

That's how I see it anyway.  

 

Also, we have to start looking forward at that point.  I'm simply not seeing what McBeane have done here.  Lorax is in his last season, Shady will be fortunate to post a good season and is on his last legs too.  Hughes is no spring chicken either.  They were all here when he got here but he hasn't backfilled to their levels.  Gore ain't long for the team.  

 

Who are the ringers that McBeane have brought on?  I like Edmunds and the secondary, but short of those I don't see any pending the development of the rookies.  

 

How would you see the team improving?  

 

 

Edited June 26, 2019 by Ronin

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

2 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

Yeah, I can see the possibility for confusion there, I should have stated that better.  I'll edit it. 

 

My "slim-to-nil" odds were of the team looking better or improving if as your assumption happens, namely that Allen busts.  If Allen busts I really don't envision any scenario where the team overall improves to such an extent that McD deflects heat calling for his firing.  

 

The offense including all the newbies won't be helping him at that point, which will leave only improvements to the D.  But Kyle's gone, Lorax is in his last season, Hughes is aging, none of them are his players and there isn't much after them that he brought on in the front-7 much less the DL.  Even if Oliver turns into the beast that many insist he'll become, which as you know I don't see, then how much that improves the D with essentially Oliver replacing Kyle remains to be seen, but it's a reach to suggest that it'll be enough to offset the incompetence on the offensive side.  

 

That's how I see it anyway.  

 

I just see a path where the O-line looks real good in run blocking and are giving Allan enough time, but he's missing guys left and right.  And Singletery looks like a good signing.  At some point, could even see them switching to Barkley if that were to happen at least for a couple of games.  But while the amateur fan would be calling for McD's head, think you still look at say the problem is one guy, and with the high failure rate of rookie QB's personally I think would be crazy to then can him and start over again.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

3 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

What are the odds of that happening tho?  

 

I'd put them firmly at slim-to-nil.  If Allen busts as such, I see the offense being ranked around 30th again, I don't see it looking better.  If all works out, Oliver essentially replaces Kyle, again, a tall order, but that would still put us where we were last season on D.  

 

On the other hand, Barkely did post our best game last season as a QB.  Extrapolated over an entire season it would be 24 TDs, 0 INTs, 9.3 YPA, 10.7 AYPA, 117.4 Rating, 16 sacks, and average yardage production.  Just sayin'.  

 

...so now we're going to extrapolate Barkley stats is his ONE start with Bflo and the 7th in his career going back to 2013?....now there is some valuable fertilizer to consider......you pegged 'em right Happy Days......

[K-9]

3 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

What are the odds of that happening tho?  

 

I'd put them firmly at slim-to-nil.  If Allen busts as such, I see the offense being ranked around 30th again, I don't see it looking better.  If all works out, Oliver essentially replaces Kyle, again, a tall order, but that would still put us where we were last season on D.  

 

On the other hand, Barkely did post our best game last season as a QB.  Extrapolated over an entire season it would be 24 TDs, 0 INTs, 9.3 YPA, 10.7 AYPA, 117.4 Rating, 16 sacks, and average yardage production.  Just sayin'.  

That clinched it for me. Barkley needs to be our starting QB. Thanks.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 minutes ago, K-9 said:

That clinched it for me. Barkley needs to be our starting QB. Thanks.

 

...LMAO....gotta agree...bet all 8 lines into McBeane's office are lit up with multiple trade offers....two 1sts, 1st and a 2nd.....1st, 2nd & 3rd...a real conundrum.....that poster is really onto something......

[Rocky Landing]

3 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

What are the odds of that happening tho?  

 

I'd put them firmly at slim-to-nil.  If Allen busts as such, I see the offense being ranked around 30th again, I don't see it looking better.  If all works out, Oliver essentially replaces Kyle, again, a tall order, but that would still put us where we were last season on D.  

 

On the other hand, Barkely did post our best game last season as a QB.  Extrapolated over an entire season it would be 24 TDs, 0 INTs, 9.3 YPA, 10.7 AYPA, 117.4 Rating, 16 sacks, and average yardage production.  Just sayin'.  

Gotta make sure to leave out the week 17 game, though...

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

49 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

Can’t see him getting fired until after the 2020 season, unless the team absolutely tanks before then. 

.when the Jets fire Gase, I'd make him the 1st interview....

[Saxum]

3 hours ago, BubbaT said:

Nothing football related will get him fired this year in my opinion. Nothing. He might be on the hot seat in 2020 but not this year. Misconduct in the workplace is about the only thing I can think of that would trigger a firing and it seems unimagineable to me but one never knows. 

 

So if Coach McD tries to show Kim some wrestling moves and her husband walks in.  Got it.

[Ronin]

24 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

I just see a path where the O-line looks real good in run blocking and are giving Allan enough time, but he's missing guys left and right.  And Singletery looks like a good signing.  At some point, could even see them switching to Barkley if that were to happen at least for a couple of games.  But while the amateur fan would be calling for McD's head, think you still look at say the problem is one guy, and with the high failure rate of rookie QB's personally I think would be crazy to then can him and start over again.

 

Could be, using PFF's ratings, our new and improved OL-men aren't much better in pass protection than last year's OL-men, albeit better but only slightly more so in run-blocking.  

 

The thing is that we were horrific last year in running the ball, I'm not so confident that wasn't due to a diminished Shady, but if we go on pop-narrative here the reason was because our OL sucked at run blocking too, which of course was a big part of Allen's passing woes.  But let's assume that's the case, not sure that still only slightly above-average run-blocking OL-men are going to make that magnitude of a difference.  

 

I see Singletary being a factor in the passing (receiving) game but not much in the rushing game.  Too many guys like him have come and gone w/o the results as such.  He simply doesn't have the speed to much more than an UTM RB but he lacks the size and power to be even average at that.  He was a 3rd-rounder, so if he turns into a 500-receiving yard role player it won't have been a bad pick although I'd have made another.  I don't know why our staff is so enamored with these small-school players, more than any Bills FO in modern history.  

 

I don't see them switching to Barkley, not after that Peterman debacle, and not as a starter anyway.  It would understandably call heavily into question McD's competence as such.  Allen has no excuse and needs the starting reps, he's simply going to have to play all season barring injury.  I can see them yanking Allen so that "he doesn't lose confidence" if he's struggling in a game once, possibly twice, of under the premise that they don't want him to get hurt.  If they start Barkley that won't be a good sign for many reasons.  First, Barkley's a known quanity.  The fact that he posted our best passing game all but literally stepping off of a sofa raises questions as to how horrible our OL really was IMO.  But he's not going to play like that for a string of games.  After all, that Jet D was horrible.  

 

I see Singletary being a factor in the passing (receiving) game but not much in the rushing game.  Too many guys like him have come and gone w/o the results as such.  He simply doesn't have the speed to much more than an UTM RB but he lacks the size and power to be even average at that.  He was a 3rd-rounder, so if he turns into a 500-receiving yard role player it won't have been a bad pick although I'd have made another.  He strikes me as a RB that's going to struggle big-time running the ball in the NFL.  

 

How Knox plays, if he's even healthy, will be more important.  

 

That's how I see it.  

 

 

[Ronin]

50 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

But while the amateur fan would be calling for McD's head, think you still look at say the problem is one guy, and with the high failure rate of rookie QB's personally I think would be crazy to then can him and start over again.

 

BTW, to your point, that's how pressure in sports works, it almost always starts with the blatantly obvious and with the most superficial indicators.  That's not to say that there aren't good underlying causes that there's often evidence for prior to that point in time, but fans and particularly media who "have to say something" to fill airtime are very reactive, not very proactive or patient for reasons why.  

 

Having said that, I didn't care for McBeane's hire to begin with as both were OJT candidates in these roles with only average prior performance at best in McD's case, Beane being all but entirely unknown.  I simply don't see any signs of their progress.  Whatever they've done to whatever extent it's occurred, has largely been on the backs of the players that have been here prior to their arrival.  I mean look at all the lengthy list of free agents that they've brought in, the ones that have worked out best have largely been risk-free players on low-end contracts.  

 

With the exception of Micah Hyde and this year's crop of free-agents which we don't have the returns yet, the pricey FAs have been Lotulolei and Murphy.  Kroft is next but he's this year's.  Poyer's next at a relatively inexpensive (read low-risk) contract averaging $3/season.  Except for Hyde, the other most expensive FAs brought on either haven't met expectations or have significant injury risk attached to them.  I don't see that as a good long-term building plan by someone that understands how to go about it.  I haven't seen any other team built like that while whiffing on their major draft picks like we have.  

 

 

 

 

[BubbaT]

1 hour ago, Limeaid said:

 

So if Coach McD tries to show Kim some wrestling moves and her husband walks in.  Got it.

Doesnt have to be Kim.