Matt Parrino Projects The Bills 53 Man Roster

[John from Riverside]

24 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

So if I have to call it right now then the changes I'd make from what he has are:

 

Out:

TJ Yeldon - I don't think the Bills are going to carry four running backs who don't play special teams. If a 4th back is carried (I don't think they will be) then Perry is more likely than Yeldon IMO.

Duke Williams - He still has ground to make up after spring practices. Maybe he is a guy who comes alive when the pads go on in July but what we saw in terms of play design in the install that the media got to watch during OTAs and mini camp was lots and lots of routes designed for slot receivers and speed receivers. I don't think this regime is going to carry a "big guy" just for the sake of having one.

Corey Bojorquez - No explanation needed here beyond my belief that Corey Carter will win the punting competition.

 

In:

Rafael Bush - I think the defensive backs are pretty set. The top 5 corners seem nailed on and Hyde, Poyer and tookie Jaquan Johnson (who has major ST value) are likely to make the roster at safety. But the Bills have not used Siran Neal as a safety during the spring. He has been the 2nd time nickel and played in some of the 1st team defense big nickel packages. That 6th corner / backup nickel and hybrid big nickel swiss army knife role mis his route onte this roster rather that as a conventional safety. I don't see Bush being cut I think he will remain their primary backup to Poyer and Hyde.

Eli Harold - The Bills have been encouraged by Trent Murphy over the offseason but they must still have a concern over his health and even when healthy Murphy, Lawson and Mike love all fit more naturally as the 6 technique than the 9 technique which could cause them a problem if they lose Jerry Hughes for any period of time. Therefore an extra Dlineman makes sense and Eli Harold has a better burst and better bend and has had some success as spot duty rusher in San Fran and Detroit.

Corey Carter - He may not have the leg of his rival (tough his own leg is decent) but he is more consistent. Bojorquez is an adventure every time the long snapper snaps the ball.

 

I think Yeldon does stick and Duke is at the very least on the practice squad

[GunnerBill]

42 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

While I personally think we likely keep 6, I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up keeping 7 WRs, at least early, especially if Roberts is seen only as ST.  The guy I think would push them to keep 7 though would be Ray Ray, not McKenzie.

 

Interesting take. What do you think RayRay does better than McKenzie based on what we have seen on the field?

[FLFan]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. DiMarco will make the team. The idea that they cut him to carry extra running backs and receivers that don't play special teams is the sort of normal pie in the sky pre-season nonsense.

I mostly agree with you here, but I do not think any players whose value is primarily special teams should feel very comfortable based on being part of one of the worst special teams units in the NFL.  All up for grabs.  Still, unless they can upgrade his special teams role with a more useful position player he probably sticks, unfortunately.  

[yungmack]

P, K and LS are purely Special Teams, which leaves 50 spots for the rest of the roster. This projection has FOURTEEN of them going to RB, WR, TE. Seems high to me. If the Bills do carry that many I think one of each will be kept primarily as ST players. 

[GoBills808]

12 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

Your eye for detail is appreciated here. Any high-functioning 4-3 defense needs on-field fluency from its MLB. That means a clear succession plan at the position. Stanford seemed to my limited eye to grow into that role last season. 

 

However, I will go to my grave believing that #57 Lorenzo Alexander can, in a pinch, play MLB at a HIGH level in the NFL. The 2018 wildcard playoff loss to JAX is my primary evidence to support this claim.

 

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/top-5-lorenzo-alexander-plays-afc-wild-card-20215128

 

Wasn’t Preston Brown MLB? 

[blacklabel]

8 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Wasn’t Preston Brown MLB? 

 

Indeed he was, alongside Zo, and everyone's favorite, Ramon Humber. I just looked at the starting lineups for that playoff game and wow, the improvement Beane has made on this roster is something. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Interesting take. What do you think RayRay does better than McKenzie based on what we have seen on the field?

 

I’m mostly basing it on the momentum Ray Ray has built this offseason and how McKenzies bigger value was as a returner and we are going to replace him in that role with Roberts.  While McKenzie was a good mid season find and value last year on a team lacking speed at the WR spots, he also didn’t really have reliable hands.  Several bad drops himself.  

 

I just think Ray Ray has a little bit more upside as a WR.  I can also see Sills competing for that spot, but getting dinged up early in OTAs didn’t do him any favors in keeping up.  McKenzie has a shot still of course, and it’s going to be a fun watch to see how the whole WR group competes and shakes out.

 

Im personally rooting for Sills because I like his story and the different type of skill set he potentially brings.  But this WR battle is going to be tough and there is no guarantee they keep more than 5 which will make cracking this roster for guys like Sills, Ray Ray, and McKenzie a very tall task.  

 

I still think it will be 6 guys we keep personally, but keeping 5 or 7 wouldn’t shock me either.  

[Paul Costa]

Agree Bush will be cut, I also anticipate Teller, McKenzie, Sweeney and mike love will be cut. Neal for Bush, hopefully a FA or trade for a Wr replacing McKenzie, Croom for Sweeney. Harold or FA for Mike Love. FA for Teller maybe at another position. Maybe it was addressed and I missed it but he has no back up at Mike if Edmonds went down. Which would add another player. Both punters suck. Hope we pick a better one up.

[Logic]

3 hours ago, blacklabel said:

For those wondering about DiMarco, I think he sticks because he's a special teams guy and a leader, was a captain last season. 

Indeed. Someone pointed out that he only played around 20% of offensive snaps. He also, however, played all four special teams units. Add 20% of offensive snaps to playing all four special teams units and you have a rosterable player. He certainly saw the field more than, say, a WR5 who doesn't play special teams would.

We must also remember that McDermott and Daboll both come from pasts that always involve fullbacks of some sort on the roster. Nothing about their "upbringing" in football would suggest that they're suddenly going to axe the position entirely.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I’m mostly basing it on the momentum Ray Ray has built this offseason and how McKenzies bigger value was as a returner and we are going to replace him in that role with Roberts.  While McKenzie was a good mid season find and value last year on a team lacking speed at the WR spots, he also didn’t really have reliable hands.  Several bad drops himself.  

 

I just think Ray Ray has a little bit more upside as a WR.  I can also see Sills competing for that spot, but getting dinged up early in OTAs didn’t do him any favors in keeping up.  McKenzie has a shot still of course, and it’s going to be a fun watch to see how the whole WR group competes and shakes out.

 

Im personally rooting for Sills because I like his story and the different type of skill set he potentially brings.  But this WR battle is going to be tough and there is no guarantee they keep more than 5 which will make cracking this roster for guys like Sills, Ray Ray, and McKenzie a very tall task.  

 

I still think it will be 6 guys we keep personally, but keeping 5 or 7 wouldn’t shock me either.  

 

So McKenzie is the only player that I think is in danger of being cut that I really, really want on this team and I think his value goes way beyond possible return value. He is a swiss army knife on offense and I think his explosiveness adds something to our arsenal. 

 

McCloud is the only guy who offers a similar skillset and I think they probably are after one spot. McCloud has had a good spring but so has McKenzie who has been out there with the 1s as much as any other receiver. I just don't see McCloud's upside and as someone who watched him a fair bit at Clemson I didn't ever really see it. When he was out there last year he was atrocious he couldn't run a route. I still have him as my "guy to disappear when the pads go on" but I do think the winner of the McKenzie / McCloud battle has a significantly higher % chance of winning a roster spot than the winner of the Sills / Williams battle - just based on the offense they want to run. 

[LABILLBACKER]

Pretty accurate. 

QBs & OL correct

RBs correct but still not a DiMarco fan.

WRs solid, maybe swap McKenzie for Sills?

DL set, maybe Yarbrough over Love?

TEs, don't know enough from Sweeney to upend Croom?

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I’m mostly basing it on the momentum Ray Ray has built this offseason and how McKenzies bigger value was as a returner and we are going to replace him in that role with Roberts.  While McKenzie was a good mid season find and value last year on a team lacking speed at the WR spots, he also didn’t really have reliable hands.  Several bad drops himself.  

 

I just think Ray Ray has a little bit more upside as a WR.  I can also see Sills competing for that spot, but getting dinged up early in OTAs didn’t do him any favors in keeping up.  McKenzie has a shot still of course, and it’s going to be a fun watch to see how the whole WR group competes and shakes out.

 

Im personally rooting for Sills because I like his story and the different type of skill set he potentially brings.  But this WR battle is going to be tough and there is no guarantee they keep more than 5 which will make cracking this roster for guys like Sills, Ray Ray, and McKenzie a very tall task.  

 

I still think it will be 6 guys we keep personally, but keeping 5 or 7 wouldn’t shock me 

I'd select McKenzie over McCloud as the very last wr.  Ray Ray is awful....

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So McKenzie is the only player that I think is in danger of being cut that I really, really want on this team and I think his value goes way beyond possible return value. He is a swiss army knife on offense and I think his explosiveness adds something to our arsenal. 

 

McCloud is the only guy who offers a similar skillset and I think they probably are after one spot. McCloud has had a good spring but so has McKenzie who has been out there with the 1s as much as any other receiver. I just don't see McCloud's upside and as someone who watched him a fair bit at Clemson I didn't ever really see it. When he was out there last year he was atrocious he couldn't run a route. I still have him as my "guy to disappear when the pads go on" but I do think the winner of the McKenzie / McCloud battle has a significantly higher % chance of winning a roster spot than the winner of the Sills / Williams battle - just based on the offense they want to run. 

 

I have nothing against McKenzie, and actually was not aware he had a strong spring too as I just don't recall hearing his name much.  I do realize and liked his "gadget" value, but without his need as a returner, then his hands must get better IMO to best serve in that gadget role.  Like I said, I heard Ray Ray a lot during the spring so far, so just seemed he had more momentum heading into camp.  

 

You would know more about Ray Ray than me as I didn't pay that much attention to him at Clemson.  I agree about his play last year, but they also really helped develop Foster and then this spring Ray Ray keeps getting mentioned as a guy turning heads.  And given him and McKenzie are essentially vying for the same type of role, just seemed to me he had a little more momentum.  But spring means nothing of course, it all often changes once the pads go on.  

 

I do still think Duke will make this roster as he is starting to come on and his real potential will start to come out when things get physical with the pads on.  He just has another skill set the others don't and I think with the injuries at TE, having a bigger WR target to go with or speedsters and slot guys will help balance the group out.  I actually think Duke has a higher chance than McKenzie/McLoud for this reason, especially with Cole here and a stable of RB's who can catch out of the backfield too.  Speed is neutralized to a degree in the Redzone, you need guys who can be physical and and high point balls too.  

[Alphadawg7]

43 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I'd select McKenzie over McCloud as the very last wr.  Ray Ray is awful....

 

Keep in mind, I wasn't basing this off of last year...I just had not heard much about McKenzie this off season and kept seeing Ray Ray get pointed out as a guy turning heads this spring.  So was solely based on the perceived momentum from that really.  

 

McKenzie for me just needs to have better hands...I just dont want to keep seeing the ball hit the turf after hitting our receivers hands (a reason I have been so critical of Zay in the past) and McKenzie had some doozy drops right in the hands.  He was a nice addition last year when we needed it, and appreciated his efforts.  Be great if he has a strong preseason as he is quite explosive.  I dont really have a preference here of the two, just had heard more exciting things this spring on Ray Ray.  

[Rocky Landing]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So McKenzie is the only player that I think is in danger of being cut that I really, really want on this team and I think his value goes way beyond possible return value. He is a swiss army knife on offense and I think his explosiveness adds something to our arsenal. 

 

McCloud is the only guy who offers a similar skillset and I think they probably are after one spot. McCloud has had a good spring but so has McKenzie who has been out there with the 1s as much as any other receiver. I just don't see McCloud's upside and as someone who watched him a fair bit at Clemson I didn't ever really see it. When he was out there last year he was atrocious he couldn't run a route. I still have him as my "guy to disappear when the pads go on" but I do think the winner of the McKenzie / McCloud battle has a significantly higher % chance of winning a roster spot than the winner of the Sills / Williams battle - just based on the offense they want to run. 

I agree about McKenzie. He was a great addition last season, and it was really impressive with how quickly he contributed. There's a lot about him to admire-- his acceleration, his cuts, and his versatility. He also threw down 110% every play he was on the field. And, he is always smiling. That might not play too big with a lot of fans, but I put attitude, and character high on my list of things I want on the team. That's just me.

 

My fear for him is that between Roberts on ST, and Beasley on offense, the FO might feel his role is too diminished to keep a spot on the 53. I believe they value him highly as a player. I just fear they might see him as redundant.

 

And, other than approximate size, vaguely Irish surnames, and propensities to smile, I don't really compare McKenzie to McCloud at all. 

[GunnerBill]

25 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I have nothing against McKenzie, and actually was not aware he had a strong spring too as I just don't recall hearing his name much.  I do realize and liked his "gadget" value, but without his need as a returner, then his hands must get better IMO to best serve in that gadget role.  Like I said, I heard Ray Ray a lot during the spring so far, so just seemed he had more momentum heading into camp.  

 

You would know more about Ray Ray than me as I didn't pay that much attention to him at Clemson.  I agree about his play last year, but they also really helped develop Foster and then this spring Ray Ray keeps getting mentioned as a guy turning heads.  And given him and McKenzie are essentially vying for the same type of role, just seemed to me he had a little more momentum.  But spring means nothing of course, it all often changes once the pads go on.  

 

I do still think Duke will make this roster as he is starting to come on and his real potential will start to come out when things get physical with the pads on.  He just has another skill set the others don't and I think with the injuries at TE, having a bigger WR target to go with or speedsters and slot guys will help balance the group out.  I actually think Duke has a higher chance than McKenzie/McLoud for this reason, especially with Cole here and a stable of RB's who can catch out of the backfield too.  Speed is neutralized to a degree in the Redzone, you need guys who can be physical and and high point balls too.  

 

I think to make it over one of the slot / gadget guys Williams will have to be obviously better. And at this point that is a long shot. 

[Rocky Landing]

42 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Keep in mind, I wasn't basing this off of last year...I just had not heard much about McKenzie this off season and kept seeing Ray Ray get pointed out as a guy turning heads this spring.  So was solely based on the perceived momentum from that really.  

 

McKenzie for me just needs to have better hands...I just dont want to keep seeing the ball hit the turf after hitting our receivers hands (a reason I have been so critical of Zay in the past) and McKenzie had some doozy drops right in the hands.  He was a nice addition last year when we needed it, and appreciated his efforts.  Be great if he has a strong preseason as he is quite explosive.  I dont really have a preference here of the two, just had heard more exciting things this spring on Ray Ray.  

His drop rate is 3.3%, which is pretty average.

Someone could correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that WRs who average more shorter targets tend to have a higher drop rate. Edelman's drop rate was 7.4%!

Mind you, I don't put a lot of stock in these stats, as far as proving any sort of point-- just for placing context. And, other than one kinda bad drop that I remember (and I don't even remember the game, or opponent), I don't remember McKenzie as having particularly bad hands. Quite the contrary, IMO.

Edited June 18, 2019 by Rocky Landing

[Rocky Landing]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think to make it over one of the slot / gadget guys Williams will have to be obviously better. And at this point that is a long shot. 

Better than... he was in the CFL? In OTAs? Better than McKenzie, or the other bubble players?

Also, not sure why this would be such a long shot? 

 

In my view, I think Williams has an opportunity to carve out a role on this team, assuming he fits onto special teams, which seems perfectly doable. He's an exceptionally physical WR, and blocker. He seems like he could be a natural on ST, and also an asset on multiple wide sets where downfield blocking is a necessity. Is there another WR on this team with that level, or type of physicality? Maybe John Brown, but they're not going to put him on ST, or give his too many blocking assignments, I wouldn't think. Nor Zay, for that matter.

 

Suffice to say, I'm a bit of a Duke fan, at this point, so my opinions are certainly tainted. But, he is definitely a guy that I feel will excel once the practices become more physical. 

[Alphadawg7]

57 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

His drop rate is 3.3%, which is pretty average.

Someone could correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that WRs who average more shorter targets tend to have a higher drop rate. Edelman's drop rate was 7.4%!

Mind you, I don't put a lot of stock in these stats, as far as proving any sort of point-- just for placing context. And, other than one kinda bad drop that I remember (and I don't even remember the game, or opponent), I don't remember McKenzie as having particularly bad hands. Quite the contrary, IMO.

 

He shows up in this video 5 times despite only being here part of the season and only having 30 targets:  That would be a real drop rate of 16.6% not 3.3%...and several of them are very bad drops.  I liked McKenzie, but honestly the "drop rate" stat is never accurate as its all subjective and never accurately tracked.  For me, the eye ball test here says it was worse than that and not good enough last year. 

 

This is why I feel like he needs to improve his hands if he wants to make this roster this year, these kinds of drops are not going to be tolerated by this regime.  McD and Beane have both emphasized this offseason getting guys on the filed this year who will catch the ball. 

 

Here are where his drops are at.  Also, there are a few other drops in this video where you can not see or hear who the WR is, but I was able to track it down using the game clock in the clips and the play by play...none were Mckenzie in those, so these are his only 5.  The others were mostly Andre Holmes or a TE where you couldn't identify the player in this video.  

 

0:25 - BAD drop

0:38 - BAD drop

1:24 - BAD drop

3:36 - Tough catch attempt, still hit his hands

5:10 - BAD drop

 

 

Edited June 18, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[3rdand12]

17 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

Several things I don't agree with here:

- I don't think TJ Yeldon makes the cut.

- I do think Perry makes the cut.

- Is DiMarco some sort of sacred cow?

- I didn't realize that Christian Wade could be on the team and not count against the 53. I thought he just didn't count against the 90. Does he get to suit up?

- I don't think Tyler Kroft will ever play a down as a Bill. I believe he will be cut as soon as they are allowed.

- Mike Love over Eli Harold (or Eddie Yarbrough, for that matter)? I don't think so.

- I hope they hold onto Tyree, but doubt they will. 

Tyree to PS obviously.
and to that point , i think they will try to stack the practice squad and keep fingers crossed. Guys like Sweeney and  Harold . Sirles?? etc

no way 7 WRS

 allen can only see two and possibly a TE after the snap.........

Edited June 18, 2019 by 3rdand12