Josh Allen: Film Review From a Cynical Man

[RocCityRoller]

I saw what I needed to in the last 6 games.

 

The Miami game showed me everything I need to know.

 

came out, in command, ran when the opportunity was there, passed when Jones or Foster were open.

 

Few mistakes. Had the drive to put a beat down on a team that wanted no part of that game. Killer instinct.

 

JA is legit IMO. He made Foster and Jones better. Got into a rhythm with them. Add Smokey Brown and Beasley to the mix.

Potential at TE.

 

Very excited for year 2, with a few new WR, TE and an improved OL.

 

D should be stout and even better.

 

Bills 8-8 to 10-6.

[Ronin]

On 6/17/2019 at 3:11 PM, Bruce Harper said:

Understand that this is coming from a Jets and Darnold fan, just to put my biases out there.  And I fully expect to be flamed for this.

 

Allen is a rare talent.  Superior arm (among the best in the league), great wheels, tough as nails.  Will make plays that will make your jaw drop.  And seems like a good kid.  But I'm not convinced that he will ever be accurate enough to be a top level QB in the NFL. 

 

I'm a big believer in past production.  He completed 55% of his passes in high school.  47% of his passes in Junior college.  56% at Wyoming. 52% last year.  In the modern NFL, 60% seems to be the floor of where you need to be to succeed.  He needs to get there.  Maybe he can if the OL gets better and with better skill guys.  But that would be an unusual jump, as the vast majority of guys' completion percentages don't improve when they get to the pros.  If he does, though, he could be the cream of the crop.

 

Yeah, pretty much.  

 

Which is why my strategy to support Allen, at this point anyway given all the "water under the dam" scenarios, is to have built up the OL around him way more than they have.  He'll need "extra" protection.  As I've said and as you've implied, if he is going to do it he'll need more than the usual amount of help.  I don't see that they did that. 

 

But spot on, these historical indicators and frankly, fundamentals, typically don't improve for players at the NFL when throughout their lives otherwise they've typically been poor at them.  I mean who would even think that it would occur like that.  

 

Granted, could happen for sake of discussion, but as I've mentioned and again, as you've implied, if it does Allen will indeed be in ground-breaking territory.  Our teams seems to have taken quite a few such gambles in recent years, Spiller, Watkins, Manuel, Jones, and IMO now Oliver and Singletary to name a few. 

 

It's a "smarter-by-half" approach where our team seems to think they know better than a wealth of NFL history and proven metrics otherwise. Unfortunately as fans we're powerless to do anything but watch it unfold.  

 

McD and Beane seem to be trying to recreate the Panthers under Newton here, which to me is a sign of a sheer and utter lack of creativity and knowledge about the game.  But hey what do I know.  According to many here, not much.    

[thebandit27]

12 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

 

But spot on, these historical indicators and frankly, fundamentals, typically don't improve for players at the NFL when throughout their lives otherwise they've typically been poor at them.  I mean who would even think that it would occur like that.  

 

 

Why do you keep defaulting to this argument when you've been shown in several different threads and by multiple posters that this isn't true?

[Gugny]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Why do you keep defaulting to this argument when you've been shown in several different threads and by multiple posters that this isn't true?

 

It's what crusaders do.

[thebandit27]

5 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

It's what crusaders do.

 

I just find it so...odd.

 

I mean, Ronin likes to make epic-long posts that are filled with jargon, but when challenged on data, examples, and even generalizations he just ignores it and whistles right on by.

 

I'm still waiting for responses to...

- why did you claim that Allen routinely has all day to throw?

- where are the repeated examples of receivers throwing their arms up in disgust?

- did you compare Allen's first 6 games vs. last 6 games improvement arc to other recent rookies like Goff, Wentz, & Trubisky?

 

Like I've said a dozen or so times: it's fine to be an Allen skeptic.  In some respects, it's entirely warranted.  What's absurd is to make utterly false claims upon which you base your evaluation, and then completely ignore when you're challenged on those claims.

 

I'd like to give Ronin the benefit of the doubt and believe that the lack of response to such challenges results from the sheer volume in each of his posts, which makes it difficult to keep up with responses.  With each passing topic, I find that harder to do.

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

13 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

Yeah, pretty much.  

 

Which is why my strategy to support Allen, at this point anyway given all the "water under the dam" scenarios, is to have built up the OL around him way more than they have.  He'll need "extra" protection.  As I've said and as you've implied, if he is going to do it he'll need more than the usual amount of help.  I don't see that they did that. 

 

But spot on, these historical indicators and frankly, fundamentals, typically don't improve for players at the NFL when throughout their lives otherwise they've typically been poor at them.  I mean who would even think that it would occur like that.  

 

Granted, could happen for sake of discussion, but as I've mentioned and again, as you've implied, if it does Allen will indeed be in ground-breaking territory.  Our teams seems to have taken quite a few such gambles in recent years, Spiller, Watkins, Manuel, Jones, and IMO now Oliver and Singletary to name a few. 

 

It's a "smarter-by-half" approach where our team seems to think they know better than a wealth of NFL history and proven metrics otherwise. Unfortunately as fans we're powerless to do anything but watch it unfold.  

 

McD and Beane seem to be trying to recreate the Panthers under Newton here, which to me is a sign of a sheer and utter lack of creativity and knowledge about the game.  But hey what do I know.  According to many here, not much.    

On the flip side, the history of the league is littered with the carcasses of high performing collegiate QBs who did nothing, or worse, I'm the NFL. 

 

Personally, I'm not sure TB12 ever even becomes TB1 had he been drafted by the Bills, Browns or Jets. 

 

JA is our guy, the management of the team seems intent on building a team around him and as far as I'm concerned, that's ansolutely vital for the success of a rookie QB and enough for now. The rest takes care of itself one way or the other. 

 

The fact that he's so damn easy to cheer for is a bonus. 

[Ronin]

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Why do you keep defaulting to this argument when you've been shown in several different threads and by multiple posters that this isn't true?

 

Apples to oranges.  Pretty simple.  

 

One can always roll out an exception, the question is whether the foundational premises for comparison are equal.  

 

Most people here just throw stuff out until stuff sticks and narratives (ergo mass opinions) are formed merely by repeating things often enough.  

 

I'm also probably not seeing those posts to be able to respond or address them.  I've weeded out people that can't stick to simple discussion and put them on ignore.  I don't care, their opinions don't interest me.  Frankly, I wish they'd do the same to/for me.  

 

Nonetheless, point out a player that ascended to the status of a franchise QB and I'll explain why there's a difference if you want to.  Unfortunately Mahomes, Wentz (who's frankly not a franchise QB yet), or Trubisky (the same), and w/ one season under him Mahomes will have to continue his success to be regarded as such, mind you, I fully anticipate that he will, just sayin'.  Those are three that have been thrown out there and I've explained it.  

 

See, people see what they want to see, no more.  You won't find anyone here that's done more research on any of the players that I've opined on then me, at least none that I've read.  Very unfavorable fact, but hey, it is what it is.  

 

But if you want to continue this, name for me one player that never, and I do mean never, read defenses very well either in HS or college, went to the NFL, then learned to read Ds so effectively that he became a franchise QB?  

 

Keep in mind, a QB that perhaps "wasn't the best" at reading Ds is different.  Allen doesn't nor has read them effectively at all, ever.  So start there.  

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

Apples to oranges.  Pretty simple.  

 

One can always roll out an exception, the question is whether the foundational premises for comparison are equal.  

 

Most people here just throw stuff out until stuff sticks and narratives (ergo mass opinions) are formed merely by repeating things often enough.  

 

I'm also probably not seeing those posts to be able to respond or address them.  I've weeded out people that can't stick to simple discussion and put them on ignore.  I don't care, their opinions don't interest me.  Frankly, I wish they'd do the same to/for me.  

 

Nonetheless, point out a player that ascended to the status of a franchise QB and I'll explain why there's a difference if you want to.  Unfortunately Mahomes, Wentz (who's frankly not a franchise QB yet), or Trubisky (the same), and w/ one season under him Mahomes will have to continue his success to be regarded as such, mind you, I fully anticipate that he will, just sayin'.  Those are three that have been thrown out there and I've explained it.  

 

See, people see what they want to see, no more.  You won't find anyone here that's done more research on any of the players that I've opined on then me, at least none that I've read.  Very unfavorable fact, but hey, it is what it is.  

 

But if you want to continue this, name for me one player that never, and I do mean never, read defenses very well either in HS or college, went to the NFL, then learned to read Ds so effectively that he became a franchise QB?  

 

Keep in mind, a QB that perhaps "wasn't the best" at reading Ds is different.  Allen doesn't nor has read them effectively at all, ever.  So start there.  

Are you familiar with the concept of confirmation bias?

[Ronin]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I just find it so...odd.

 

I mean, Ronin likes to make epic-long posts that are filled with jargon, but when challenged on data, examples, and even generalizations he just ignores it and whistles right on by.

 

I'm still waiting for responses to...

- why did you claim that Allen routinely has all day to throw?

- where are the repeated examples of receivers throwing their arms up in disgust?

- did you compare Allen's first 6 games vs. last 6 games improvement arc to other recent rookies like Goff, Wentz, & Trubisky?

 

I've explained it, provided data, such as he had more time to throw than any QB in the entire league, and by a country mile, I've time-tagged an entire game whereby there were numerous plays were Allen had 3 or even 4+ seconds to throw and still *****-the-bed, etc. 

 

I don't have time to go thru all 16 games, just for you.  You'll excuse the above by saying that the "time" was all due to scrambling, which is BS.  

 

As I said, people, you included, will believe what you want to believe.  I on the other hand always seek what's true regardless of what I'd like to be the case or see happen.  

 

And again, here, like others, you put words in my mouth.  I've never said that Allen routinely, meaning throughout the season, had all day to throw.  He had more than ample time and far more than the best, read franchise, QBs need to get the ball out in numerous games.  Dont' know what to tell you.  

 

What I don't understand is why people get so upset.  Fine, treat me like some kind of fool and move on.  Hell, please, PLEASE, put me on ignore.  

 

But asking me repeatedly to post the same exact things over and over is insulting.  

 

And BTW, I'm on record as stating that Goff would be the only QB from his Draft to succeed as such in the NFL.  So please, let's stop that comparison.  Goff's collegiate accolades alone place him so far ahead of Allen coming in that to deny that is to prove one's ignorance on this entire topic.  

3 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Are you familiar with the concept of confirmation bias?

 

Are you familiar with the concept of denial?  

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

I've explained it, provided data, such as he had more time to throw than any QB in the entire league, and by a country mile, I've time-tagged an entire game whereby there were numerous plays were Allen had 3 or even 4+ seconds to throw and still *****-the-bed, etc. 

 

I don't have time to go thru all 16 games, just for you.  You'll excuse the above by saying that the "time" was all due to scrambling, which is BS.  

 

As I said, people, you included, will believe what you want to believe.  I on the other hand always seek what's true regardless of what I'd like to be the case or see happen.  

 

And again, here, like others, you put words in my mouth.  I've never said that Allen routinely, meaning throughout the season, had all day to throw.  He had more than ample time and far more than the best, read franchise, QBs need to get the ball out in numerous games.  Dont' know what to tell you.  

 

What I don't understand is why people get so upset.  Fine, treat me like some kind of fool and move on.  Hell, please, PLEASE, put me on ignore.  

 

But asking me repeatedly to post the same exact things over and over is insulting.  

 

And BTW, I'm on record as stating that Goff would be the only QB from his Draft to succeed as such in the NFL.  So please, let's stop that comparison.  Goff's collegiate accolades alone place him so far ahead of Allen coming in that to deny that is to prove one's ignorance on this entire topic.  

 

Are you familiar with the concept of denial?  

I have acknowledged where Allen needs to improve.  You have confirmation bias and it is shown by how you pooh pooh the majority of moves made by the organization.

 

I have taken grad level statistics classes and have asked you on several occasions questions about the data sets you look at for your pronouncements.  Things like observer variance among others.  You refuse to answer , much like you have here with confirmation bias.  I think that's because you really don't understand stats, and cherry pick things and use your own observational bias to get the negative result you seek.

[Ronin]

20 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

On the flip side, the history of the league is littered with the carcasses of high performing collegiate QBs who did nothing, or worse, I'm the NFL. 

 

Personally, I'm not sure TB12 ever even becomes TB1 had he been drafted by the Bills, Browns or Jets. 

 

JA is our guy, the management of the team seems intent on building a team around him and as far as I'm concerned, that's ansolutely vital for the success of a rookie QB and enough for now. The rest takes care of itself one way or the other. 

 

The fact that he's so damn easy to cheer for is a bonus. 

 

Funny you say that, TB12 doesn't even become TB12 if Bledsoe doesn't get injured in '01.  

 

Seems to me he'd have just been the next in a string of day-3 QBs drafted by Belichick that would end up having left the team.

 

I've said it many many times, it's not Belichick, not by a country mile and particularly with his completely unproven abilities to develop QBs as a coach, that recognized any particular ability in Brady and decided to replace Bledsoe.  It took an injury to force his hand.  Everyone talks about how great Belichick is right alongside of Brady being the GOAT, which I agree with, the latter that is.  But having said that, one has to believe that Brady, aka the GOAT, is worth 3-4 wins/season.  But if that's the case, how "good" would Belichick have been w/o Brady.  (rhetorical)   I mean to believe that he'd still have achieved all that he has w/ Bledsoe is laughable.  Then subtract even just 3 wins/season from their win totals, while considering the division that they've been in with Bledsoe among the best QBs in the division since then and including over the QBs of all three other teams, and an entirely different picture of the Pats over the past two decades emerges.  Ironically, many here will argue that in favor of Belichick.  

 

My position back then was that the Pats would never win a SB and only succeed in the playoffs despite Bledsoe.  I said the same exact things, fully on public record, back when we signed him.   That too was about  as popular as my comments and analysis of Allen.  

 

FULLY agree with you on Allen.  The guy is so damn easy to root for!   He's got the intangibles down!  Too, they are in fact all-in on him.  He fails, they fail, it's that simple.  

 

Hope it works out, I'm simply far from convinced.  It's largely also an indictment of their general/overall team-building methodology, which leaves me failing to see 

 

As you say, we'll see and in the meantime root for success.  

[Rocky Landing]

29 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

I've explained it, provided data, such as he had more time to throw than any QB in the entire league, and by a country mile, I've time-tagged an entire game whereby there were numerous plays were Allen had 3 or even 4+ seconds to throw and still *****-the-bed, etc. 

 

I don't have time to go thru all 16 games, just for you.  You'll excuse the above by saying that the "time" was all due to scrambling, which is BS.  

 

As I said, people, you included, will believe what you want to believe.  I on the other hand always seek what's true regardless of what I'd like to be the case or see happen.  

 

And again, here, like others, you put words in my mouth.  I've never said that Allen routinely, meaning throughout the season, had all day to throw.  He had more than ample time and far more than the best, read franchise, QBs need to get the ball out in numerous games.  Dont' know what to tell you.  

 

What I don't understand is why people get so upset.  Fine, treat me like some kind of fool and move on.  Hell, please, PLEASE, put me on ignore.  

 

But asking me repeatedly to post the same exact things over and over is insulting.  

 

And BTW, I'm on record as stating that Goff would be the only QB from his Draft to succeed as such in the NFL.  So please, let's stop that comparison.  Goff's collegiate accolades alone place him so far ahead of Allen coming in that to deny that is to prove one's ignorance on this entire topic.  

I'm actually one of the people who apparently "can't stick to simple discussion" and have been put on ignore by Ronin, but that won't stop me from pointing out some of his intellectually dishonest crap. The explanations in the game he time-tagged were so biased, it was laughable. In the very first play he "analyzes" (quotation marks necessary) he opines that Allen "immediately defaults to looking downfield," rather than immediately throwing to Shady (whom he had just faked a handoff to!). Allen then avoids a sack, as he has a DT bearing down on him, and he is able to throw the ball away. For Ronin to say Allen "immediately defaults to looking downfield," is another way of saying "immediately defaults to running the play that was called." 

 

Like I said-- this guy is intellectually dishonest. He'll use conflicting arguments from one post to the next, he'll cherry pick stats, he'll move the goal posts in his arguments (example: "name for me one player that never, and I do mean never, read defenses very well either in HS or college"). And, more than anything, he wants you to know that he knows more about football than anyone here ("You won't find anyone here that's done more research on any of the players that I've opined on then me.")

And, if you don't like it, he'll write you a nice, overly-long, condescending response that ends with him telling you not to bother responding, because he has put you on ignore. I'm happy to belong to that club.

Edited June 20, 2019 by Rocky Landing

[thebandit27]

18 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

I've explained it, provided data, such as he had more time to throw than any QB in the entire league, and by a country mile, I've time-tagged an entire game whereby there were numerous plays were Allen had 3 or even 4+ seconds to throw and still *****-the-bed, etc. 

 

 

I'm assuming you're citing his time-to-throw as listed on NextGenStats here, well, you've totally missed the boat.  Badly.

 

Pressured on 41% of his dropbacks (and as I posted in the link, pressure is defined as coming against the QB in the pocket in less than 3 seconds)--more than any other QB in the NFL, yet somehow he still had 3.22 seconds per pass attempt.  Go ahead, explain that away while clinging to the idea that "scrambling is BS".  There's only one explanation for "pressured almost half the time he drops back to pass" while "having 3.22 seconds per dropback to throw"...unless you're going to claim that half the time his OL was the best pass-protecting unit in the NFL, and the other half of the time they were the worst.  Or, perhaps even more agenda-driven, that they were the best pass-protecting unit in the NFL, which is why he had the most time per dropback, and that Allen is so lost that he actually created pressure against himself the remainder of the time, but that's such a ridiculous notion that I can't imagine there's a sane person that would try to sell it.

 

EDIT: according to PFF, Allen actually faced pressure on 43.4% of his dropbacks.  Not sure how their numbers differ, but either way, there still only one way explain that away.

 

The above is just an example of where you tend to disregard very pertinent information in order to keep banging the same drum.  It makes it really hard to take you seriously.  What makes it even harder to take you seriously is when you claim that anyone that points out massive flaws in your analyses is somehow upset, a homer,  or misrepresenting you.  That's not what's happening here.  There's no need to beg people to put you on ignore; just be honest.  When you make an untrue claim, own it.  I have said no less than 15 times that it's reasonable to be skeptical of Allen...it's not, however, reasonable to make things up and get mad when called out about it.

 

Another example is you claiming that Goff was somehow so obviously better than Allen entering the league, but ignoring that he performed so much worse as a rookie.  I mean, objectively, Allen was clearly a better QB than Goff as a rookie.  And when confronted with the question, you ignore the idea that it's relevant to compare Allen's first season improvement pre and post injury to the first-year arc of guys like Goff, Wentz, and Trubisky.

 

41 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

But if you want to continue this, name for me one player that never, and I do mean never, read defenses very well either in HS or college, went to the NFL, then learned to read Ds so effectively that he became a franchise QB?  

 

Keep in mind, a QB that perhaps "wasn't the best" at reading Ds is different.  Allen doesn't nor has read them effectively at all, ever.  So start there.  

 

What a horse *****, moving of the goal posts tactic.  You can't seriously expect me to pick out a QB that meets your subjective criteria for not being good at reading defenses in college?  Furthermore, inherent in that request is an expectation that I acquiesce to the idea that Allen couldn't read a D in college.  I don't, and that was never my evaluation of the guy. That certainly wasn't the rap on him coming out of Wyoming from anyone else's evaluation that I read.

 

But just to satisfy your non-sequitur, here's an example of a QB that couldn't read a defense in college, got by on athletic talent alone, and didn't complete 60% of his passes in the NFL until his 8th season, but is also widely-regarded as a franchise QB:

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/cam-newton?id=2495455

 

 

I think I can now say that I've done my best to have an intellectually honest discussion here.

 

[oldmanfan]

14 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I'm assuming you're citing his time-to-throw as listed on NextGenStats here, well, you've totally missed the boat.  Badly.

 

Pressured on 41% of his dropbacks (and as I posted in the link, pressure is defined as coming against the QB in the pocket in less than 3 seconds)--more than any other QB in the NFL, yet somehow he still had 3.22 seconds per pass attempt.  Go ahead, explain that away while clinging to the idea that "scrambling is BS".  There's only one explanation for "pressured almost half the time he drops back to pass" while "having 3.22 seconds per dropback to throw"...unless you're going to claim that half the time his OL was the best pass-protecting unit in the NFL, and the other half of the time they were the worst.  Or, perhaps even more agenda-driven, that they were the best pass-protecting unit in the NFL, which is why he had the most time per dropback, and that Allen is so lost that he actually created pressure against himself the remainder of the time, but that's such a ridiculous notion that I can't imagine there's a sane person that would try to sell it.

 

EDIT: according to PFF, Allen actually faced pressure on 43.4% of his dropbacks.  Not sure how their numbers differ, but either way, there still only one way explain that away.

 

The above is just an example of where you tend to disregard very pertinent information in order to keep banging the same drum.  It makes it really hard to take you seriously.  What makes it even harder to take you seriously is when you claim that anyone that points out massive flaws in your analyses is somehow upset, a homer,  or misrepresenting you.  That's not what's happening here.  There's no need to beg people to put you on ignore; just be honest.  When you make an untrue claim, own it.  I have said no less than 15 times that it's reasonable to be skeptical of Allen...it's not, however, reasonable to make things up and get mad when called out about it.

 

Another example is you claiming that Goff was somehow so obviously better than Allen entering the league, but ignoring that he performed so much worse as a rookie.  I mean, objectively, Allen was clearly a better QB than Goff as a rookie.  And when confronted with the question, you ignore the idea that it's relevant to compare Allen's first season improvement pre and post injury to the first-year arc of guys like Goff, Wentz, and Trubisky.

 

 

What a horse *****, moving of the goal posts tactic.  You can't seriously expect me to pick out a QB that meets your subjective criteria for not being good at reading defenses in college?  Furthermore, inherent in that request is an expectation that I acquiesce to the idea that Allen couldn't read a D in college.  I don't, and that was never my evaluation of the guy. That certainly wasn't the rap on him coming out of Wyoming from anyone else's evaluation that I read.

 

But just to satisfy your non-sequitur, here's an example of a QB that couldn't read a defense in college, got by on athletic talent alone, and didn't complete 60% of his passes in the NFL until his 8th season, but is also widely-regarded as a franchise QB:

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/cam-newton?id=2495455

 

 

I think I can now say that I've done my best to have an intellectually honest discussion here.

 

Well said.  When folks tell you that you should put them on ignore, it basically means they don't have a leg to stand on with their thought process.

Edited June 20, 2019 by oldmanfan

[CincyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Ronin said:

 

I've explained it, provided data, such as he had more time to throw than any QB in the entire league, and by a country mile, I've time-tagged an entire game whereby there were numerous plays were Allen had 3 or even 4+ seconds to throw and still *****-the-bed, etc. 

 

 

 

As others have noted you have completely missed the meaning of this stat.  Allen was pressured on almost HALF his throws - which I believe led the league.  That he also led the league in having more time to throw is a clear indication of his elusiveness under pressure.  This was apparent to anyone who watched his games.  A typical Allen pass began with his almost immediately being put under pressure by the pass rush and having to make a move in order to avoid the sack.   

 

IMO next year we'll see that in these situations Allen will be quite dangerous because:

 

*  His threat to run and gain 25 yards will mean that his receivers will become uncovered downfield as LB's & Safeties  move up to contain Allen's runs.

 

*  The greatly revamped WR & TE group will take better advantage of the opportunities that arise after Allen breaks containment.  You saw evidence of this after he came back from his injury where some of his biggest completions were off scrambles.

 

*  With a year of experience under his belt, Allen himself will be much more effective at exploiting defenses in these situations.  And with a revamped O-line he won't be put under pressure almost half the time.  This will give the kid room to breath and more fully exploit the situations where the pass protection does break down.  .

 

*  The Bills offensive brain trust has had a year to practice & design for this sort of thing.  Last year the team used 4 different QB's (including a raw rookie) and replaced the ENTIRE starting receiver group at mid-season.  Bottom line is that there was precious little time to work on their strengths as they were treading water on offense.  Now the offense has had a whole off season to work on plays that take advantage of Allen's athleticism. 

 

 

Edited June 20, 2019 by CincyBillsFan

[Ronin]

49 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I'm assuming you're citing his time-to-throw as listed on NextGenStats here, well, you've totally missed the boat.  Badly.

 

Pressured on 41% of his dropbacks (and as I posted in the link, pressure is defined as coming against the QB in the pocket in less than 3 seconds)--more than any other QB in the NFL, yet somehow he still had 3.22 seconds per pass attempt.  Go ahead, explain that away while clinging to the idea that "scrambling is BS". 

 

Unfortunately I've never said that.  Obviously he's had to scramble.  Talk about moving the goal posts.  

 

But there are also more than ample examples, that you simply refuse to admit to, where he's got way more time than seasoned QBs use to throw  outlet or other normal passes but where Allen, missing open receivers, does not do it.  

 

It's difficult to argue when you only choose the arguments of mine that fit your points while completely ignoring a wealth of material to it that Iv'e posted otherwise.  

 

That's the problem with forums, people come in halfway through a thread, read posts 6 and 7 of an exchange, and think that they're commenting intelligently. 

 

Look, it's really simple, we have differing opinions.  I'm sorry that you're having difficulty getting on in life w/o me acknowledging that yours is the correct one. 

 

So I'll tell ya what, I'll look forward to Allen making enormous strides in becoming our franchise QB this fall with Brown, Beasley, and Knox as the premier additions to our passing game thereby raising the quality of our receivers immensely as the majority opinion is here and we'll all be happy.   

[thebandit27]

4 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

Unfortunately I've never said that.  Obviously he's had to scramble.  Talk about moving the goal posts.  

 

 

I don't ask for much; I never even came close to saying that you needed to agree with me.  But one thing I do ask for is honesty, so if you can't be honest then we're done here:

 

1 hour ago, Ronin said:

 

I've explained it, provided data, such as he had more time to throw than any QB in the entire league, and by a country mile, I've time-tagged an entire game whereby there were numerous plays were Allen had 3 or even 4+ seconds to throw and still *****-the-bed, etc. 

 

I don't have time to go thru all 16 games, just for you.  You'll excuse the above by saying that the "time" was all due to scrambling, which is BS.  

 

As I said, people, you included, will believe what you want to believe.  I on the other hand always seek what's true regardless of what I'd like to be the case or see happen.  

 

And again, here, like others, you put words in my mouth.  I've never said that Allen routinely, meaning throughout the season, had all day to throw.  He had more than ample time and far more than the best, read franchise, QBs need to get the ball out in numerous games.  Dont' know what to tell you.  

 

What I don't understand is why people get so upset.  Fine, treat me like some kind of fool and move on.  Hell, please, PLEASE, put me on ignore.  

 

But asking me repeatedly to post the same exact things over and over is insulting.  

 

And BTW, I'm on record as stating that Goff would be the only QB from his Draft to succeed as such in the NFL.  So please, let's stop that comparison.  Goff's collegiate accolades alone place him so far ahead of Allen coming in that to deny that is to prove one's ignorance on this entire topic.  

 

Are you familiar with the concept of denial?  

 

Edited June 20, 2019 by thebandit27

[Ronin]

58 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

As others have noted you have completely missed the meaning of this stat.  Allen was pressured on almost HALF his throws - which I believe led the league. 

 

LMAO  

 

No, I haven't.  I get it, I really do.  

 

What's absolutely hilarious is that all those taking your opinion here for whatever reason cannot seem to mentally grasp the simplistic notion that IN THE OTHER HALF OF HIS THROWS WHEREBY HE WASN'T PRESSURED he still sucked.  

 

I just posted the very objective data from PFF on this, he was near DFL even when he wasn't pressured and ahead of ONLY Rosen.  

 

What is so complex that you don't grasp this?  Can't grasp it.  

 

Your argument would make at least a shred of sense if when under no pressure Allen were average, or hell, even close to average.  But he wasn't.  He was near DFL.  

 

Dismissing poor play under circumstances that may cause it is one thing, but failing to prove that otherwise, as is clearly the case with Allen, measurably, is not overcome by the former.  

 

That's like dismissing the actions of a criminal by suggesting that he acted in self-defense but overlooking his voluntary rape and beatings of other people and saying that "otherwise he's a great guy."  

 

Honestly, why does this seem to elude so many people.  Allen was a horrific passer last season other than in a tremendously scattered and situational basis.  

 

A guy that covered him from Pro Football Weekly said the following and he's spot on: 

 

More impressive, Allen does not need perfect conditions in order to summon arm strength. Allen has a flexible upper body and an absolute terror of a throwing motion. No matter the platform, Allen can rip the ball down the field with ease and deliver where many quarterbacks would fall short.

The conundrum with Allen is that these flashes -- the moments of pure brilliance -- come so few and far between. Allen dazzles once or twice a game with a play that feels impossible, only to look like a late-round pick for the remainder of his appearance. The inconsistency in Allen's play was supposed to be addressed by staying in school for another season, but that did not prove to be the case.

There is no comfort in betting on a quarterback prospect who does not consistently play to his skill set. 

 

That is so accurately stated, in college as well as in foresight for his rookie season.  

 

Interestingly that "arm strength" and "flexible upper body" didn't render him among the NCAA's best, but we're expecting that it'll make him the best in the NFL.  Well, OK.  

 

I guess the people that penned the nfl.com profile, the walter profile, and the PFW guy, among others not mentioned, are "negative" about Allen.  They see/saw the same exact things in Allen that I saw/see.  I see some  positives, but unfortunately not nearly enough to overcome all of those most critical negatives. 

 

How many times does it have to be stated the number of strong-armed QBs, some athletic some not, that come into the league among the top-10, often top few, and fail because their arm and athleticism don't cut it?  And they came from collegiate programs whereby they played very well against very tough collegiate competition.  Leinart and Young are two that come to mind.  They were both at the pinnacle in college.  

 

Ironically perhaps too Ken Dorsey, Allen's mentor and QB coach.  What's his resume?  What's his record of success coaching NFL QBs in the passing Dept?  

 

 

 

 

Edited June 20, 2019 by Ronin

[Nihilarian]

The entire football world knew that Allen wasn't as polished as Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen and he should have sat out the season like Patrick Mahomes did in KC. Unlike the Chiefs though, the Bills didn't have a veteran QB to start, or someone for a young, inexperienced QB to lean on, to mentor, to show both Peterman, Allen the NFL ropes. Shoot, this team didn't even have a valid QB coach as the one they did have was never an NFL QB coach but a receivers assistant coach. 

 

Speaking of Peterman, imagine how the season would have looked had this coaching staff been determined to have him remain as the starter! 0-16 maybe? Even veteran Derek Anderson looked like crap behind that horrid offensive line... with a poor receiving corps...with no run game from the RBs...with bad coaching that called for far, far too many deep passes with a bad line that couldn't protect past two seconds. 

 

Kinda difficult to throw deep when you call for a 5-7 step drop back which requires 3-5 seconds in the pocket when most of the time that line wouldn't even hold for two seconds.  Probably a big reason as to why this OC has never had an NFL offense better than 24th in passing in his five seasons as an OC. Little or no holes for the RBs, save when the team had the lead at times...very few times in some games.

 

Don't think that Bills OC Brian Daboll was calling for deep passes? "28.2 percent of Allen’s pass attempts where on passes 15-yards or further downfield, which was the highest rate in the league:.

 

This, behind one of the very worst offensive lines in the league. Throughout the 2018 season, where they allowed 154 total pressures from 595 passing plays.

 

"Allen scrambled on 11.9 percent of his drop backs last year. That was the second highest rate over the past decade with four or more starts in a season, trailing only Mike Vick in 2010. He also averaged 10.8 yards per scramble attempt, the highest rate for any quarterback over the past 10 years that tallied 20 or more scramble runs. It was a necessity for Allen to scramble as he faced pressure on 43.4 percent of his dropbacks, which trailed only Deshaun Watson."

 

After a midseason elbow injury, Daboll and the Bills shifted their offensive philosophy around showcasing offensive speed and getting Allen into more empty offensive sets to maximize his rushing potential while generating more explosive plays.

Allen drop backed from an empty set on 18.5 percent of his drop backs, which was the third-highest rate in the league. Although his passing performance was still under par for the league, this allowed him to finish the season as a fantasy dynamo. After returning in Week 12, Allen was the highest overall scoring fantasy quarterback during those remaining six weeks of the season.

 

https://www.rotoworld.com/article/team-previews/bills-fantasy-preview

 

From my view, QB Josh Allen allowed the 2018 Buffalo Bills NFL season to be watchable (after he returned from his injury, that is) and after he got some veteran QB help. Did Allen still make some mistakes, yes! But he also made some plays with his arm that very few NFL QB's can make...

 

Peyton Manning's first season 3-13, only completed 56.7% of his passes. Set a rookie record for most INT's with 28. 

 

QB Troy Aikman went 0-11 his first year as the Cowboys went 1-15. Threw 9 TDs, 18 INTs, completed 52.9% of his passes. He even had Michael Irvin to throw to, (who didn't emerge as a top WR until year four).

 

Gee, I wonder if that Troy Akiman guy can overcome all those critical negatives? 

 

 

 

[HappyDays]

19 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

Like I said-- this guy is intellectually dishonest

 

More than once he has been caught making up statistics. He is a troll and has been posting on various Bills forums for years. There is no point in seriously engaging with him.