Josh Allen: Film Review From a Cynical Man

[Bill from NYC]

On ‎6‎/‎16‎/‎2019 at 6:43 PM, SoTier said:

If will, drive, and leadership were all it took to become a great NFL QB, then Allen would undoubtedly become one.  Unfortunately, that's enough.  He has to develop the physical skills and learn to make good decisions under pressure in order to become a good enough QB to consistently lead his team to wins.   It's a tall order for Allen because he came into the NFL so raw and unprepared, and bnumerous first roundQB prospects who had excellent physical skills and were much more "NFL ready" than he was have failed that same test. 

 

At this point, nobody really knows just how good he can be, but he probably has to show significant improvement in order to have a better career than guys like Tannehill or Bortles.

Gotta disagree in that Allen already has freak physical skills.

 

I know what the OP means wrt Bledsoe. Like him or hate him, the man had an absolutely great arm. Marino once said that Bledsoe's arm was better than his. Allen has a comparable arm to Bledsoe AND he can move. I too wish that he had more weapons but he does have better blocking and this would seem to be beyond any doubt. This will hopefully keep him in one piece.

 

In 2020, there are what appear to be great receivers coming out. I hope to see 1 or more wind up in Buffalo.

[oldmanfan]

6 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Bills fans keep bringing this up and Beane wasn't hired at this time. The draft was in April and Beane was hired May 9th. 

 

If I'm McD, I wouldn't trust Doug Whaley to evaluate a QB after he personally evaluated EJ before drafting him. McD knows defense and he got his man in Tre White who is one of the very best CBs in the league. Besides, who know what Mahomes would have developed into in Buffalo under Rick Dennison. Andy Reid had Mahomes sit and learn for a year (behind veteran QB Alex Smith) which is what should have happened with Allen, sitting for a year that is.

 

As for those other three points, I can't explain those and they bothered me immensely as did drafting a QB #7 overall only to throw him to the wolves behind on of the very worst O- line this franchise has ever fielded. 

 

Beane did acknowledge to the media he made a mistake in not getting Anderson or a veteran NFL QB in earlier to mentor Allen. As for the Nathan Peterman debacle, I put that more on the offensive coaches as they must had had great input to say he was ready to start. 

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/7/20/17593276/brandon-beane-explains-buffalo-bills-2018-nfl-draft-quarterback-evaluation-josh-allen-brian-daboll

The Peterman vs. McCarron thing was simple:  Peterman outplayed him in preseason; it wasn't even close.  One of the mysteries of the last couple years is why Peterman looked so good in practice but so completely threw up in the regular season.  And Beane acknowledged the mistake in not bringing in a vet backup earlier.  Not ever decision they make is going to work out , that being a prime example.

 

When rehashing theMahomes/Watson several things need to be kept in mind in addition to McD relying (or not) on Whaley.  There were doubts about both guys.  Mahomes was criticized for poor footwork, for how well he'd adapt out of a single read offense, and such.  Watson had people question his arm.  I wanted Watson myself, and obviously Mahomes is showing great things.  But it's not like they were considered Peyton like slam dunks.  Plus they had Taylor who ultimately got them to the playoffs.  And they knew a QB rich draft was coming up.  So they got a great DB in White which is not a terrible move.

 

McD has made some coaching decisions that didn't work.  It would have been better to get Dorsey in last year for Allen.  His O line coach was bad; that may have had more to do with the poor O line play than personnel.  But they have addressed both personnel and the coach this season.  The same with special teams; new coach and they brought in an All Pro return guy.

 

So we'll see.  One thing I'd say is the HC and GM recognize mistakes, own up to them, and try to fix them.

[Rocket94]

3 hours ago, SoTier said:

^^^

 

We don't know how good Allen can/will be at this point.   He could fail to improve much at all, which would probably make him worse than Tannehill, and maybe Bortles as well.  He could have an ephiphany and develop into a future HOFer.   It's most likely he'll be somewhere in between but we just don't know.   How much he improves this coming season will give a good indication of his real potential as a NFL QB:  2nd year starters who significantly improve their play over their rookie seasons tend to go on to have successful NFL careers.

 

 

 

True and you are right. I am just basing my opinion on his talent and flashes of excellent ability that he displayed last year.

[SoTier]

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

If you know he's not the guy earlier.  But here's the thing:  we don't know.  So why assume it will be that way?  

 

Allen has as much potential as any of the guys drafted last year.  The team has invested heavily in the O line to help him.  They have brought in WRs including a solid possession guy to help him.  Brought in TEs through FA and the draft.  Brought in a new QB coach.  Palmer and others rave about his work ethic.  And sorry, but if you go back and really analyze his throws last year he's more accurate than people say. 

 

Yes, none of that is a guarantee of success.  I have said many times he needs to get more experience on reading defenses.  But why assume the negative?  I don't get that.

 

Some people believe what they're going to believe even when their belief is contradicted by mountains of hard evidence like the anti-vaccination crusaders and the folks who insist that the Earth is only about 6000 years old.   Others believe what they believe because of how they interpret hard evidence.   There are lots of people on TSW who believe Allen is going to be great just because he wears a Bills uni.  Others are convinced he's a dud.  Both look at 2018, and draw different conclusions.  IIRC, we posters on TSW were about in the same place about 6 years ago, only the QB we were discussing then was EJ Manuel.

 

I don't know if Allen will succeed or fail.  I want him to succeed because I like the kid, but I can see lots of reasons why he might not, some that are generic to all young QBs, some specific to the Bills team, and some specific to Allen himself.  Hopefully, by December we'll have a better idea of which way he's likely to turn out and not be in the equivalent of "Tannehill Limbo" where we have a sort-of decent QB we have to keep hoping will get better "next year".

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Might want to check your facts on this one

 

They could have drafted Mahomes or Watson at #10 in 2017 but they traded back and drafted someone else.  They took Peterman in the fifth round.   Do you want to argue that Peterman was a good choice, even in the fifth round?   Hell, any kid who could play ST decently would have been a better pick than Peterman, especially since they intended to go with 2 QBs.

1 hour ago, Bill from NYC said:

Gotta disagree in that Allen already has freak physical skills.

 

I know what the OP means wrt Bledsoe. Like him or hate him, the man had an absolutely great arm. Marino once said that Bledsoe's arm was better than his. Allen has a comparable arm to Bledsoe AND he can move. I too wish that he had more weapons but he does have better blocking and this would seem to be beyond any doubt. This will hopefully keep him in one piece.

 

In 2020, there are what appear to be great receivers coming out. I hope to see 1 or more wind up in Buffalo.

 

I was thinking more about his accuracy and related issues such as footwork.  

[C.Biscuit97]

3 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Wouldn't it strike you as unbelievably stupid of Beane/McD if they didn't heavily investigate this sole issue? I'm thoroughly certain they did, just as I did before the draft.

 

Allen talking with Mike Mayock at the combine. Allen was aware of his accuracy issues and he understood it was mostly his footwork that was off at times. As soon as the college season was over Allen went to work with Jordan Palmer on his mechanics, footwork. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tIb-B4sGd8&t=3s

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7l5BD8SaJ0

 

I couldn't be more encouraged about Allen after watching him play in the season finale against Miami. The Bills were up by 7 near the end of the second quarter and Allen threw a pick 6. Now it's 14-14 going into the third quarter. Instead of getting down about that pass, Allen led four TD drives and threw for two TDs and ran for another TD in the second half. Buffalo won that game 42-17 and Allen just dominated with his arm and legs. 

 

Here is another video with Rich Eisen talking with Trent Dilfer and John Brenkus. Watch it and you just might feel better about the upcoming season. 

 

 

 

What about this regime’s these offensive moves so far makes you so sure they know what they are doing on offense (they have done awesome on defense)? Passing on Mahomes? Trading up for Zay instead of staying pat and taking JuJu or Kupp? Signing Mike Tolbert?  Jordan Matthews? Trading for Benjamin?  Peterman? Dennison? Going into last season with no veteran back up qb?  2 terrible offenses back to back?

Edited June 18, 2019 by C.Biscuit97

[Cornette's Commentary]

On 6/18/2019 at 11:00 AM, SoTier said:

 

They could have drafted Mahomes or Watson at #10 in 2017 but they traded back and drafted someone else.  They took Peterman in the fifth round.   Do you want to argue that Peterman was a good choice, even in the fifth round?   Hell, any kid who could play ST decently would have been a better pick than Peterman, especially since they intended to go with 2 QBs.

 

I was thinking more about his accuracy and related issues such as footwork.  

What makes you think Mahomes or Watson would have had the same level of success if they came here, instead of KC and Houston?

 

[HappyDays]

15 minutes ago, SoTier said:

They could have drafted Mahomes or Watson at #10 in 2017 but they traded back and drafted someone else. 

 

Read your original post back again and try to spot the mistake.

[SoTier]

1 minute ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

What makes you think Mahomes or Watson would have had the same level of success if they came here, instead of KC and Houston?

 

This is irrelevant because this is not Mahomes/Watson vs Allen.  It's  Mahomes/Watson vs Peterman.  If neither Mahomes nor Watson had been any better than Mitch Trubisky was as a rookie -- and never got much better -- they would have been infinitely better than Peterman.  The Bills would have been much better served to have passed on any QB in the 2017 draft rather than take Peterman.  He was a disaster -- and McDermott couldn't/wouldn't see that until he'd lost at least 3 games virtually single-handedy (2017 Chargers, 2018 Baltimore, 2018 Houston).  The only game that he wasn't awful in was the one game where passing was extremely limited on both   sides because  of the weather (2017 Indy). 

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

In Madden, or in real life?  If it's the latter, why are you wasting your time on this board?  Update your resume and start networking with people who know the Pegulas.

As GM, would your first move be trading for JuJu Smith-Schuster (by the way, his QB is Ben Roethlisberger, who can actually get the ball to him.  If the Bills had taken him over Zay Jones, his QB would have been Tyrod Taylor, who refused to push the ball downfield).

Working on it.  I just need a family member or a friend employed by a NFL team.  That’s how you get in.  See McBeane.  

 

And JuJu was an animal for a school that routinely puts out good receivers. Zay got drafted by a team that gave his college coach a job.  

[Chandler#81]

3 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Wouldn't it strike you as unbelievably stupid of Beane/McD if they didn't heavily investigate this sole issue? I'm thoroughly certain they did, just as I did before the draft.

 

Allen talking with Mike Mayock at the combine. Allen was aware of his accuracy issues and he understood it was mostly his footwork that was off at times. As soon as the college season was over Allen went to work with Jordan Palmer on his mechanics, footwork. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tIb-B4sGd8&t=3s

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7l5BD8SaJ0

 

I couldn't be more encouraged about Allen after watching him play in the season finale against Miami. The Bills were up by 7 near the end of the second quarter and Allen threw a pick 6. Now it's 14-14 going into the third quarter. Instead of getting down about that pass, Allen led four TD drives and threw for two TDs and ran for another TD in the second half. Buffalo won that game 42-17 and Allen just dominated with his arm and legs. 

 

Here is another video with Rich Eisen talking with Trent Dilfer and John Brenkus. Watch it and you just might feel better about the upcoming season. 

 

 

 

Damn. Gotta adjust my jeans..

[Gugny]

16 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Damn. Gotta adjust my jeans..

 

I bet Dilfer works out.

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Tyrod Taylor, who refused to push the ball downfield).

 

Oh now I've read it all.

 

You're whipping out the brutal shtick and then following up with this gem?  Ok, go ahead and back up that statement.

 

What was Taylor's average depth of target in 2016? 2017? What about his average intended air yards per attempt?  How does that compare to the big-armed, gunslinger types like Philip Rivers and Matthew Stafford? How does it compare to the elite guys like Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers?

 

You can say a lot of thing about Tyrod Taylor, but an unwillingness to push the ball down the field ranks in the top 3 for most-categorically-false statements of such a nature.

[K-9]

27 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Don't you have any other club in your bag besides the phony Bills-promote-this-poster-to-GM shtick?

 

It's old, lame, and ineffective.

That said, I nominate you as the poster to take the position!

[Nihilarian]

What some of you guys need to realize is that this HC/GM are first timers in their respective jobs and they are learning as they go. Yes, they have made some mistakes and they also corrected them fairly quickly in comparison to past regimes.

 

Do they compare to past regimes since 2000, NO! Why? Because they made the playoffs in 2017 for the first time in two decades!

 

Some of you whine and complain about revisionist theory on the drafts. For the 2018 draft, McD was still dealing with Doug Whaley and his scouting staff and after the draft they were ALL replaced!!  Still, four starters, one of the very best CBs in the league, a starting LT, a starting WR, a starting OLBer who was playing at a pro bowl level before injury and a 5th round pick at that.

 

Shall we revisit how many players are on the team from Nix/Whaley? 55 players drafted and only one player remains!

 

For the first time in the 50 plus year history of this Buffalo Bills franchise this FO took a QB with a top ten pick with an upside of an Aaron Rodgers/Big Ben/ Brett Favre. They also found their MLB for the next decade who is only 21 years old. 6'5'' 250lbs and a physical freak. He reminds me of the Raiders Ted Hendricks, aka "the mad stork"! Then when you look at the free agents this GM found a CB gem in Levi Wallace, who some have said is so good were the draft held again today he would be a first round pick. WR Robert Foster is also mentioned as another player who would have been a first rounder. 

 

The Bills fielded the #2 overall defense last season with the #1 pass defense and this off season added former Bill, EJ Gains and former #1 Texans CB Kevin Johnson (who BTW killed it in mini camp.) #1 pick in DT Ed Oliver is a beast and should have been a top 3 pick...yay NY Giants, Raiders!

 

Yes, the Bills offensive line was bad last season and they moved to replace the line coach along with most of the starting players on that line. If anyone on that line fails to do a decent job like Dion Dawkins who in his rookie season had only four penalties and last year had 15.There is now enough backup talent on the roster to replace him or move him to OG. The LT and center positions are looking locked down and the rest should be a war to see who starts at LG, RG, RT. #2 draft pick Cody Ford was graded as a #1 pick the Bills got a road grading beast who should start at RT. 

 

Yes, the Bills receiving corps was pretty bad last season and they replaced the WR coach. They brought in arguably the best slot guy in the league in Cole Beasley. They brought in a very speedy WR in John Brown who has enough talent to be the #1 WR on the team. (They tried to get him last year and he instead went to Baltimore) WR Duke Williams is a CFL all-star who is a big, strong physical receiver at 6'3 225lbs. 

 

TE Charles Clay never lived up to expectations in Buffalo so he is gone along with WR Kelvin Benjamin who lost his heart to play. The Bills added TE Tyler Kroft from the Bengals, resigned Lee Smith and draft picks Dawson Knox, Tommy Sweeney.

 

For the life of me I just don't get how some Bills fans are complaining like Buddy Nix is still with the team. Drafting a "waterbug at RB when the team is desperate for a LT. Or Doug Whaley using two firsts and a fourth to move up in the draft for an oft injured, malcontent WR when they could have drafted anyone of 15 first round picks that draft who made the pro bowl. Then right after drafting Watkins the Bills FO stated that they were still looking for that big, tall WR red zone target... Mike Evans anyone? ODB jr, or even Khalil Mack! OMG what a bunch of fluckups Whaley and his scouting staff were! 55 players drafted from Whaley/Nix era and only one remains with the Bills. 

 

From what I've seen this past off season Bills fans should be doing back-flips over what Beane/McD have done with this team. If you can't get excited over this team, this year then see a doc and get some Alprazolam until the season gets here. 

[Rocky Landing]

36 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

What some of you guys need to realize is that this HC/GM are first timers in their respective jobs and they are learning as they go. Yes, they have made some mistakes and they also corrected them fairly quickly in comparison to past regimes.

 

Do they compare to past regimes since 2000, NO! Why? Because they made the playoffs in 2017 for the first time in two decades!

 

Some of you whine and complain about revisionist theory on the drafts. For the 2018 draft, McD was still dealing with Doug Whaley and his scouting staff and after the draft they were ALL replaced!!  Still, four starters, one of the very best CBs in the league, a starting LT, a starting WR, a starting OLBer who was playing at a pro bowl level before injury and a 5th round pick at that.

 

Shall we revisit how many players are on the team from Nix/Whaley? 55 players drafted and only one player remains!

 

For the first time in the 50 plus year history of this Buffalo Bills franchise this FO took a QB with a top ten pick with an upside of an Aaron Rodgers/Big Ben/ Brett Favre. They also found their MLB for the next decade who is only 21 years old. 6'5'' 250lbs and a physical freak. He reminds me of the Raiders Ted Hendricks, aka "the mad stork"! Then when you look at the free agents this GM found a CB gem in Levi Wallace, who some have said is so good were the draft held again today he would be a first round pick. WR Robert Foster is also mentioned as another player who would have been a first rounder. 

 

The Bills fielded the #2 overall defense last season with the #1 pass defense and this off season added former Bill, EJ Gains and former #1 Texans CB Kevin Johnson (who BTW killed it in mini camp.) #1 pick in DT Ed Oliver is a beast and should have been a top 3 pick...yay NY Giants, Raiders!

 

Yes, the Bills offensive line was bad last season and they moved to replace the line coach along with most of the starting players on that line. If anyone on that line fails to do a decent job like Dion Dawkins who in his rookie season had only four penalties and last year had 15.There is now enough backup talent on the roster to replace him or move him to OG. The LT and center positions are looking locked down and the rest should be a war to see who starts at LG, RG, RT. #2 draft pick Cody Ford was graded as a #1 pick the Bills got a road grading beast who should start at RT. 

 

Yes, the Bills receiving corps was pretty bad last season and they replaced the WR coach. They brought in arguably the best slot guy in the league in Cole Beasley. They brought in a very speedy WR in John Brown who has enough talent to be the #1 WR on the team. (They tried to get him last year and he instead went to Baltimore) WR Duke Williams is a CFL all-star who is a big, strong physical receiver at 6'3 225lbs. 

 

TE Charles Clay never lived up to expectations in Buffalo so he is gone along with WR Kelvin Benjamin who lost his heart to play. The Bills added TE Tyler Kroft from the Bengals, resigned Lee Smith and draft picks Dawson Knox, Tommy Sweeney.

 

For the life of me I just don't get how some Bills fans are complaining like Buddy Nix is still with the team. Drafting a "waterbug at RB when the team is desperate for a LT. Or Doug Whaley using two firsts and a fourth to move up in the draft for an oft injured, malcontent WR when they could have drafted anyone of 15 first round picks that draft who made the pro bowl. Then right after drafting Watkins the Bills FO stated that they were still looking for that big, tall WR red zone target... Mike Evans anyone? ODB jr, or even Khalil Mack! OMG what a bunch of fluckups Whaley and his scouting staff were! 55 players drafted from Whaley/Nix era and only one remains with the Bills. 

 

From what I've seen this past off season Bills fans should be doing back-flips over what Beane/McD have done with this team. If you can't get excited over this team, this year then see a doc and get some Alprazolam until the season gets here. 

With only a few exceptions of some rather loquacious posters, I'd say you're more or less preaching to the choir. Most will be a bit more tepid than you-- your thoughts on TE strike me as overly optimistic, especially. But, I think that the clear majority of Bills fans are not only excited for this team, but excited for, and fully behind Allen. Indeed, I don't ever remember the fanbase being as united behind their quarterback, Ronin, and SoTier notwithstanding.

 

Certainly, there are a lot of unknowns going into this season, and you mention several of them. Duke Williams might be awesome.

I wouldn't compare Allen's "upside" to the likes of Aaron Rodgers/Big Ben/ Brett Favre, just yet. But, his ceiling could be right up there, or higher.

And, a lot of hay has been made over the improvements of the O-line-- and rightfully so. It would be hard for any additions to not be an upgrade over last season's dysfunctional mess. But, as good as they look on paper, they are still an unknown, and unproven unit.

 

So, maybe I'm not doing backflips, exactly. But, there is so much to look forward to this season. I believe there are going to be some real disappointments with how this team comes together, but you'd really have to stretch (as some on this thread certainly have!) not to see this team moving in the right direction.

 

I predict that this is going to be a fun season to be a Bills fan. GO BILLS!

 

 

 

 

Edited June 18, 2019 by Rocky Landing

[Ga boy]

On ‎6‎/‎17‎/‎2019 at 8:06 AM, downunderbill said:

 

Yes, the Pats scored Tom Brady in the sixth so why can't the Bills? It's that simple.

Respectfully, you missed by point.  Pats have GOAT now, and still they drafted a QB.  We have a question mark, and didn't.

 

[downunderbill]

1 hour ago, Ga boy said:

Respectfully, you missed by point.  Pats have GOAT now, and still they drafted a QB.  We have a question mark, and didn't.

 

 

I did, sorry, just defaulted to the Brady in the 6th discussion. 

The Pats have always drafted QBs, for future draft capital, they just don't get every draft move as heavily scrutinised a team like the Bills do. If the bills keep drafting QBs we'd all be on them for not having faith in their 1st rounder when we had so many positions of need.

[Richard Noggin]

17 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

I didn't go back and re-watch every Allen play but wouldn't it be fair to say that this was a PRE-INJURY Allen antic?  I don't recall to many instances where he panicked and turned his back to the rush AFTER he came back from the injury.  In fact wasn't it the Jacksonville game, his first one back, where he stepped into the rush and as three guys were wrapping him up delivered a deep strike for a 75 yard TD pass?   And it seemed like Allen learned that rather then running around like a chicken after the pass protection broke down he should just look for a running lane and take off. 

 

I would also argue that most of the "laughable film" came from the Green Bay game.  This was truly Allen's worst game as a rookie.  But let's not forget that it came right after one of his best games.   This means Allen was INCONSISTENT, especially before his injury.  You should see my shocked face at the idea that a rookie QB might not be consistent in his play.  

I think I agree with your negotiation of my previous points.

 

Reasonable back-and-forth. Feels good.

[Ronin]

On 6/17/2019 at 2:43 PM, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

We are going over the same ground.  Strange you dont mention how many red zone rushing TDs  he had?

 

You keep cherry picking whatever stats you want to support your thesis.  Why soddenly are you going to to teams stats,  PPG,  from his individual stats to demonstrate he didnt improve. (BTW  the Bills avgd 15 ppg with Allen starting  before he was hurt, so 18 is actually an improvement).  And Why did you only use the last 5 games for your PPG instead 6? 

 

If you dont think Allen improved in the second half of the season I am not going to try and convince you otherwise.   

 

And visa versa on the so-called improvement.  As well, improvement is relative.  To me, going from absolute historical crap to poor, while perhaps "improvement," is hardly something to hang one's hat on.  

 

As to rushing and rushing TDs, this just in, but Allen's (or any QB for that matter) rushing stats are not what are going to make him a franchise QB.  The fact that anyone doesn't understand that makes me question their knowledge of the game.