Josh Allen: Film Review From a Cynical Man

[transplantbillsfan]

Cynical my @$$!!!

 

You're clearly a homer!!!

 

I say that mainly because I'm a homer and I agree with your entire post

[Richard Noggin]

On 6/16/2019 at 8:02 PM, Kelly the Dog said:

That would have been an almost expected post from a Josh fan. But from a Josh critic it is an excellent one. I find it hard for anyone to watch the games from last year and not see him swarmed immediately a huge portion of the time, and still trying to make a play. That is the reason for his completion percentage more than inaccuracy.

 

Agree to an extent. Allen was dealing with early, disruptive pressure on too many plays. But no "cynical man" completely white washes Allen's issues setting protections, reading defenses pre- and post-snap, and seeing the whole field quickly. The OP really sweeps too much under last year's turf. 

 

But for the record, I'm more optimistic than pessimistic about his chances to improve.

[Richard Noggin]

8 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

What so many Bills fans seem to forget is that Josh Allen wasn't supposed to start in 2018. He was supposed to sit and learn while Peterman played behind that craptastic line with the inferior receiver corps and he would take the beating. Allen was graded as a developmental project and the Bills FO acknowledged this and had Peterman taking all the first string reps.

 

Then Allen was thrown into the fire, unprepared to fight that fire, and what a fire! It was a full blown dumpster tire fire with an OC who had never fielded a better then 23rd passing offense in his previous four years in the NFL as an OC. A QB coach who had never been an NFL QB coach. No veteran QB on the roster to help this rookie learn the NFL ropes. We already talked about the bad line and receiver corps. 

 

Yes, Josh Allen had a rocky NFL start in his first season.  Allen had 11 game starts and went 5-6 with an inferior offense around him and like at Wyoming in his final year he basically needed to carry the entire offense on his shoulders. There was no real run game by the Bills RB's as Allen was the teams leading rusher with 631 yards, 8 TDs. The teams top two passing targets had 80 missed targets between them and thus the reason as to why one WR outright cut while the WR coach was replaced. 

 

In 2018 QB Josh Allen WAS the offense while LeSean McCoy was averaging a measly 3.2 YPC avg while Josh Allen was averaging a crazy 7.1 YPC avg. That 5-6 win/loss record would more then likely be 6-6 if Allen didn't get hurt in that Texans game and Peterman throwing two INTs with a pick 6. 

 

The NY Jets finished 4-12 with their rookie QB picked at the #3 spot. Cleveland was only one game better with the #1 overall pick on a much better team. The majority of this board wanted Josh Rosen in the draft and he went 3-10 at Arizona with a QBR of 26.6. 

 

Get a grip folks, he was a rookie who didn't do so bad with one of the worst offenses the Bills have ever fielded. I for one am very excited to see what the kid can do with a decent line, decent receivers and now given the time to learn the offense.

 

I can see playoffs year after year for Buffalo in the near future. 

I don't hate this narrative for last season, but it IS a glossy, Allen-centric depiction of something far more circumstantial and nuanced than we see here. 

 

Again, I mostly agree. But why are so many fans drawn to such polarized interpretations? There's no monetary fan award for being proven right first about certain players, coaches, transactions, etc. I disagreed with the pick at first. Then the Bills had a meltdown at QB. Then Allen returned from the elbow injury (suffered in a Texans game most of us agree Allen would have steered to victory--which never gets brought up in the pre- vs post-injury critique, that maybe the rookie was progressing on-the-job even BEFORE his step-back) with some kind of spark, and/or leadership, and/or improved play, and I was sold. I'm excited to watch him play in 2019. 

 

But let's not ignore the full truth. He was REALLY bad at times last season. He panicked in ways an NFL QB never should, especially the tendency to turn his back to the pass rush rather than step up. Resulted in some laughable film. 

 

Let's be reasonable?

[Nihilarian]

39 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

I don't hate this narrative for last season, but it IS a glossy, Allen-centric depiction of something far more circumstantial and nuanced than we see here. 

 

Again, I mostly agree. But why are so many fans drawn to such polarized interpretations? There's no monetary fan award for being proven right first about certain players, coaches, transactions, etc. I disagreed with the pick at first. Then the Bills had a meltdown at QB. Then Allen returned from the elbow injury (suffered in a Texans game most of us agree Allen would have steered to victory--which never gets brought up in the pre- vs post-injury critique, that maybe the rookie was progressing on-the-job even BEFORE his step-back) with some kind of spark, and/or leadership, and/or improved play, and I was sold. I'm excited to watch him play in 2019. 

 

But let's not ignore the full truth. He was REALLY bad at times last season. He panicked in ways an NFL QB never should, especially the tendency to turn his back to the pass rush rather than step up. Resulted in some laughable film. 

 

Let's be reasonable?

Let's revisit what I said.

9 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Then Allen was thrown into the fire, unprepared to fight that fire, and what a fire! It was a full blown dumpster tire fire with an OC who had never fielded a better then 23rd passing offense in his previous four years in the NFL as an OC. A QB coach who had never been an NFL QB coach. No veteran QB on the roster to help this rookie learn the NFL ropes. We already talked about the bad line and receiver corps. 

Both Beane and McD saw that Josh Allen wasn't ready to start in the opener so they gave the job to Peterman who did perform better in preseason.

 

Allen didn't get any first team reps in preparation for the Ravens game as Peterman was announced as the starter. The only other NFL QB Josh Allen had to lean on was AJ McCarron who stated he was there to win the starting QB job and not mentor anyone. Hence a big reason as to why they traded McCarron Sept 3rd to Oakland for a 5th round pick. No loss there.

 

QB Derek Anderson didn't sign with Buffalo until Oct 9th as he was contemplating retirement and later on GM Brandon Beane stated that this was a mistake in waiting so long to bring in a veteran QB to mentor Josh Allen, Nathan Peterman.  BTW, Anderson started two weeks later against the Colts in that 37-5 rout. Anderson was never supposed to start and was brought in primarily as a mentor.

 

Josh Allen was injured in that week 6 Texans game and was out for four games.

 

Then once the Bills FO saw how poorly Anderson had played with that crappy surrounding cast they brought in Matt Barkely in case Anderson couldn't start against Chicago. Instead, Peterman started and it was another blowout by Chicago 41-9. 

 

Matt Barkley started against the NY Jets week 10 and it was a blowout for Buffalo 41-10.

 

NOW, there is a stark reality as to why Barkley looked so good against the NY Jets and why Peterman, Anderson and Allen looked so poorly previously at times from week one to week 10. It was the result of the Bills OC calling for far, far too many deep passes with an ineffectual pass blocking offensive line along with some lousy receivers. Bills OC Brian Daboll was calling about 30% of the pass plays for deep throws. 

 

Matt Barkley started that Jets game and his very first pass was a 47 yard bomb to Robert Foster (this play clearly stunned the Jets defense) the next play was a 28 yard TD run by McCoy! The rout was on! The next series Barkley threw another deep pass incomplete to Zay Jones and out of the next eight passes 3 more went deep. The Jets defense was reeling and the Bills defense was having a field day against Josh McCown, 8 QB hits, 3 sacks, 2 INTs.

 

The Bills offense was very lucky in this game because Barkley hit Foster with that 47 yard deep bomb in the opening play and it had the Jets on their heels the rest of the game. Suddenly that failed Buffalo run game was working as the Bills rushed 46 times for 212 yards and 2 TDs. McCoy went 26 for 113. 

 

Why hadn't the Bills offense looked this good in other games? The biggest reason I noticed was that the Bills OC was calling for deep pass plays 30% of the time and most went incomplete. Those deep pass plays require time in the pocket for a 5-7 step drop back which needs 3-5 seconds in the pocket. The Bills O line was lucky to keep it to a two second pocket most of the time. Hence, all the sacks, hits, hurries on Bills QBs.

 

The 2018 Buffalo Bills offensive line was so bad that it really wasn't very smart to call for so many deep passing plays as the QBs rarely had the time in the pocket to complete those deep passes. Not to mention that the run game by the RB's was basically nonexistent most games. Consider that Bills OC Brian Daboll, while having spent time in NE as an assistant coach. His record as an NFL OC was not very good in his previous stints.  2 years with the Browns 2009 (yds 32, pts 29)-2010 (yds 29, pts 31).  One year with Miami 2011 (yds 22, pts 20). one year with KC 2012 (yds 24, pts 32) and Buffalo in 2018 yards 30th, points 30th. 

 

In 2018 Buffalo allowed 101 QB hits, 41 sacks and I can only imagine those numbers being astronomical had Peterman or Anderson remained as the starters 

 

Again, Yes, Allen was a rookie QB who was not as polished a QB as Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen. If you go back and read the draft profiles on Allen many state that he is not a day one starting QB and needs time to sit and learn,

 

"In the NFL: Allen’s pure talent will have him considered as a top 10 pick, but a team that drafts him must be aware of his faults, if they want to develop him to his full potential. For Allen to reach his full potential, he should go to a team in a coaching situation that is offense oriented, with coaches who have developed QB’s in that past, and can do it again. Allen is not a day-1 starter in the NFL. It would be ideal for Allen if he went to a situation where he can learn behind a QB for at least half a season. Allen has the best arm I have ever seen in my time scouting QB’s. If Allen reaches his potential, he could be one of the best QB’s in the NFL."

https://www.nfldraftdiamonds.com/2018/01/josh-allen/

 

 

Now, go back and look at what happened over the first half of the 2018 Buffalo Bills season.  

[SoTier]

11 hours ago, Dr.Mantis_Toboggan said:

Wow... such a bad take.  Even mentioning him in the same breathe as Bortles and Tannehill is laughable.

^^^

11 hours ago, Rocket94 said:

I believe Allen will be superior to Tannehill and Bortles. No doubt in my mind. Come to think of it, the more weapons he has...the more dangerous he will be. It could get scary!

 

We don't know how good Allen can/will be at this point.   He could fail to improve much at all, which would probably make him worse than Tannehill, and maybe Bortles as well.  He could have an ephiphany and develop into a future HOFer.   It's most likely he'll be somewhere in between but we just don't know.   How much he improves this coming season will give a good indication of his real potential as a NFL QB:  2nd year starters who significantly improve their play over their rookie seasons tend to go on to have successful NFL careers.

 

 

 

[Rocket94]

4 minutes ago, SoTier said:

^^^

 

We don't know how good Allen can/will be at this point.   He could fail to improve much at all, which would probably make him worse than Tannehill, and maybe Bortles as well.  He could have an ephiphany and develop into a future HOFer.   It's most likely he'll be somewhere in between but we just don't know.   How much he improves this coming season will give a good indication of his real potential as a NFL QB:  2nd year starters who significantly improve their play over their rookie seasons tend to go on to have successful NFL careers.

 

 

 

Just my opinion. Nothing in life is certain.

[HOUSE]

The difference between an average QB and the greats is the ability to overcome a game plan specifically designed to stop him.

 

So far the opposing defenses can't find a game plan...this is why I am very encouraged

 

..

Edited June 18, 2019 by HOUSE

[CincyBillsFan]

5 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

I don't hate this narrative for last season, but it IS a glossy, Allen-centric depiction of something far more circumstantial and nuanced than we see here. 

 

Again, I mostly agree. But why are so many fans drawn to such polarized interpretations? There's no monetary fan award for being proven right first about certain players, coaches, transactions, etc. I disagreed with the pick at first. Then the Bills had a meltdown at QB. Then Allen returned from the elbow injury (suffered in a Texans game most of us agree Allen would have steered to victory--which never gets brought up in the pre- vs post-injury critique, that maybe the rookie was progressing on-the-job even BEFORE his step-back) with some kind of spark, and/or leadership, and/or improved play, and I was sold. I'm excited to watch him play in 2019. 

 

But let's not ignore the full truth. He was REALLY bad at times last season. He panicked in ways an NFL QB never should, especially the tendency to turn his back to the pass rush rather than step up. Resulted in some laughable film. 

 

Let's be reasonable?

 

I didn't go back and re-watch every Allen play but wouldn't it be fair to say that this was a PRE-INJURY Allen antic?  I don't recall to many instances where he panicked and turned his back to the rush AFTER he came back from the injury.  In fact wasn't it the Jacksonville game, his first one back, where he stepped into the rush and as three guys were wrapping him up delivered a deep strike for a 75 yard TD pass?   And it seemed like Allen learned that rather then running around like a chicken after the pass protection broke down he should just look for a running lane and take off. 

 

I would also argue that most of the "laughable film" came from the Green Bay game.  This was truly Allen's worst game as a rookie.  But let's not forget that it came right after one of his best games.   This means Allen was INCONSISTENT, especially before his injury.  You should see my shocked face at the idea that a rookie QB might not be consistent in his play.  

[SoTier]

10 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Well said.  Thoughts like this will continue to receive a lot of flak around here until enough games have been played for everyone to catch on that Allen is not as good as hoped.

 

Interesting that you brought up the name "Tannehill".

 

My greatest fear is that Allen turns into another Tannehill.  By this, I mean someone who has the appearance of a potentially good QB and does some good things, some of the time...but is fundamentally lousy.  However, his upside is strong enough that he lingers as the starting QB for a substantial period of time.

 

We would all be much better served if Allen flamed out horrifically.  

 

Being in Tannehill Limbo for 4 or 5 years until people catch on we need a good QB and need to go in a different direction is not a place I want to be.

 

 

 

 

 

Contrary to the claims of certain posters on TSW, I'm not wishing Josh Allen or the Bills to fail.  I didn't like that the Bills picked him at first because I disliked his lack of "markers" that suggested he'd be successful as an NFL QB , but he quickly demonstrated that he has many of the intangibles NFL QBs need.  The Bills haven't had a QB with that kind of leadership qualities in a long time.   Unfortunately, that's not enough.  NFL QBs need to produce results.  QBs who can't read defenses, aren't accurate, don't make good decisions, etc are not going to consistently produce good results no matter how many intangibles they possess.  Unfortunately, a lot of Allen's issues -- like his accuracy -- are hard to change/improve, especially under pressure.

 

Unfortunately, there is a real possibility that Allen's evaluation may be clouded by how much he needs to improve to become a successful NFL QB just as Tannehill's was.  That the Bills offensive talent is considerably below average may certainly impact his evaluation, too.  Tannehill was just good enough on a modestly talented team to put the Fish into a real quandary -- too good to walk away from, not good enough to win with.  "Tannehill Limbo" is a good name for it.  Miami ended up extending him, so they wasted 7 years on him before finally cutting line.   Bortles in Jax had a similar career, and even played well enough in 2017 to convince the Jags to pick up his option year, so they were stuck with him for 5 years.

Edited June 18, 2019 by SoTier

[teef]

10 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Well said.  Thoughts like this will continue to receive a lot of flak around here until enough games have been played for everyone to catch on that Allen is not as good as hoped.

 

Interesting that you brought up the name "Tannehill".

 

My greatest fear is that Allen turns into another Tannehill.  By this, I mean someone who has the appearance of a potentially good QB and does some good things, some of the time...but is fundamentally lousy.  However, his upside is strong enough that he lingers as the starting QB for a substantial period of time.

 

We would all be much better served if Allen flamed out horrifically.  

 

Being in Tannehill Limbo for 4 or 5 years until people catch on we need a good QB and need to go in a different direction is not a place I want to be.

 

 

 

 

i'm guessing you think allen will never be a good qb?

[SoTier]

10 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

You want Allen to flame out horrifically.  That's just great.

 

That's not what the poster said.  He said if Allen was going to fail, that he wanted Allen to do it quickly and clearly -- as EJ Manuel did -- rather than be just good enough to keep the Bills thinking he might develop and yet he never does.  Manuel's early failure enabled the Bills to move on.  Tannehill's (Bortles' in Jax) not quite good enough play kept Miami saddled with an expensive mediocre QB for 7 years.

Edited June 18, 2019 by SoTier

[oldmanfan]

Just now, SoTier said:

 

That's not what the poster said.  He said if Allen was going to fail, that he wanted Allen to do it quickly and clearly -- as EJ Manuel did -- rather than be just good enough to keep the Bills think he might develop and yet he never does.  Manuel's early failure enabled the Bills to move on.  Tannehill's (Bortles' in Jax) not quite good enough play kept Miami saddled with an expensive mediocre QB for 7 years.

Look at his first paragraph.  It's clear he think Allen isn't the guy. 

 

He us is a second year QB with things to work on.  As does Darnold.  As does Mayfield.  It used to be folks recognized QB development takes time.

[Nihilarian]

9 minutes ago, SoTier said:

Unfortunately, a lot of Allen's issues -- like his accuracy -- are hard to change/improve, especially under pressure.

 

Wouldn't it strike you as unbelievably stupid of Beane/McD if they didn't heavily investigate this sole issue? I'm thoroughly certain they did, just as I did before the draft.

 

Allen talking with Mike Mayock at the combine. Allen was aware of his accuracy issues and he understood it was mostly his footwork that was off at times. As soon as the college season was over Allen went to work with Jordan Palmer on his mechanics, footwork. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tIb-B4sGd8&t=3s

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7l5BD8SaJ0

 

I couldn't be more encouraged about Allen after watching him play in the season finale against Miami. The Bills were up by 7 near the end of the second quarter and Allen threw a pick 6. Now it's 14-14 going into the third quarter. Instead of getting down about that pass, Allen led four TD drives and threw for two TDs and ran for another TD in the second half. Buffalo won that game 42-17 and Allen just dominated with his arm and legs. 

 

Here is another video with Rich Eisen talking with Trent Dilfer and John Brenkus. Watch it and you just might feel better about the upcoming season. 

 

 

 

[SoTier]

8 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Look at his first paragraph.  It's clear he think Allen isn't the guy. 

 

He us is a second year QB with things to work on.  As does Darnold.  As does Mayfield.  It used to be folks recognized QB development takes time.

 

That's true but your post ignores why he wanted spectacular failure rather Allen just being "not quite good, not quite bad"

 

Be honest.  If Allen isn't going to become a franchise QB, which is better?  The Bills finding that out in 2019 or the Bills holding on to him until 2021 or 2022 or worse-  -- giving him an extension as Miami did Tannehill?

 

Edited June 18, 2019 by SoTier

[teef]

i think it's strange that were establishing which type of failure would be better.  i get it, but it's a unique approach.  

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

That's true but your post ignores why he wanted spectacular failure rather Allen just being "not quite good, not quite bad"

 

Be honest.  If Allen isn't going to become a franchise QB, which is better?  The Bills finding that out in 2019 or the Bills holding on to him until 2021 or 2022 or worse-  -- giving him an extension as Miami did Tannehill?

 

If you know he's not the guy earlier.  But here's the thing:  we don't know.  So why assume it will be that way?  

 

Allen has as much potential as any of the guys drafted last year.  The team has invested heavily in the O line to help him.  They have brought in WRs including a solid possession guy to help him.  Brought in TEs through FA and the draft.  Brought in a new QB coach.  Palmer and others rave about his work ethic.  And sorry, but if you go back and really analyze his throws last year he's more accurate than people say. 

 

Yes, none of that is a guarantee of success.  I have said many times he needs to get more experience on reading defenses.  But why assume the negative?  I don't get that.

[thebandit27]

17 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

 

 

I couldn't be more encouraged about Allen after watching him play in the season finale against Miami. The Bills were up by 7 near the end of the second quarter and Allen threw a pick 6. Now it's 14-14 going into the third quarter. Instead of getting down about that pass, Allen led four TD drives and threw for two TDs and ran for another TD in the second half. Buffalo won that game 42-17 and Allen just dominated with his arm and legs. 

 

 

That's true...what was even more encouraging, to me, was that his very first completion in the 2nd half was to the TE (I think it was Croom) on the exact same route concept.  It was Kelly-esque in that Allen did the whole "okay, you got me once, but watch this" thing that Jimbo was famous for.

[SoTier]

9 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Wouldn't it strike you as unbelievably stupid of Beane/McD if they didn't heavily investigate this sole issue? I'm thoroughly certain they did, just as I did before the draft.

 

 

This is a HC/GM who ...

• passed on Patrick Mahomes and DeShaun Watson and took Nathan Peterman instead
• drafted a raw QB high in the first round but didn't bother to hire an experienced QB coach to tutor him
• choose Nathan Peterman over AJ McCarron, and then traded McCarron away because he was unhappy with that faulty decision
• waited a month to sign a former backup QB who'd been retired for 2 years rather than going out and immediately signing a competent backup.

Why wouldn't they be stupid enough to not investigate Allen's issues?  They weren't smart enough to give the kid any kind of support, on or off the field.  Their stupidity forced him into raging flood waters (Ravens, Chargers Ds) without any kind of life-jacket to sink or swim.

 

I like Allen.  His leadership and heart are inspiring, but  if he succeeds, he's going to do it despite McDermott/Beane.

 

[HappyDays]

22 minutes ago, SoTier said:

This is a HC/GM who ...

• passed on Patrick Mahomes and DeShaun Watson and took Nathan Peterman instead

 

Might want to check your facts on this one

[Nihilarian]

5 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

This is a HC/GM who ...

• passed on Patrick Mahomes and DeShaun Watson and took Nathan Peterman instead
• drafted a raw QB high in the first round but didn't bother to hire an experienced QB coach to tutor him
• choose Nathan Peterman over AJ McCarron, and then traded McCarron away because he was unhappy with that faulty decision
• waited a month to sign a former backup QB who'd been retired for 2 years rather than going out and immediately signing a competent backup.

Why wouldn't they be stupid enough to not investigate Allen's issues?  They weren't smart enough to give the kid any kind of support, on or off the field.  Their stupidity forced him into raging flood waters (Ravens, Chargers Ds) without any kind of life-jacket to sink or swim.

 

I like Allen.  His leadership and heart are inspiring, but  if he succeeds, he's going to do it despite McDermott/Beane.

 

Bills fans keep bringing this up and Beane wasn't hired at this time. The draft was in April and Beane was hired May 9th. 

 

If I'm McD, I wouldn't trust Doug Whaley to evaluate a QB after he personally evaluated EJ before drafting him. McD knows defense and he got his man in Tre White who is one of the very best CBs in the league. Besides, who know what Mahomes would have developed into in Buffalo under Rick Dennison. Andy Reid had Mahomes sit and learn for a year (behind veteran QB Alex Smith) which is what should have happened with Allen, sitting for a year that is.

 

As for those other three points, I can't explain those and they bothered me immensely as did drafting a QB #7 overall only to throw him to the wolves behind on of the very worst O- line this franchise has ever fielded. 

 

Beane did acknowledge to the media he made a mistake in not getting Anderson or a veteran NFL QB in earlier to mentor Allen. As for the Nathan Peterman debacle, I put that more on the offensive coaches as they must had had great input to say he was ready to start. 

 

 

EDIT: I can recall reading that the Bills, Beane/McD went up to Wyoming to watch Allen play and they both came away saying that with the snow and cold it was just like Buffalo. They researched Allen extensively, as did I.

 

https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/news/step-step-how-bills-knew-allen-was-right-them

 

“Because what we did was, first of all, look at every throw multiple times,” Beane said. “What were his options here? OK, go back, what would Baker Mayfield have done here? What would Sam Darnold have done? What would Mason Rudolph, any quarterback that was in this thing, how would they have handled it, because they’re all playing at different skill sets, they’re all playing in different offenses. He had no gimme throws. There’s no, basically like hand-offs, the bubbles and all that stuff. It was all a traditional pro-style, throwing the ball vertically, and you basically have to do your own stats.

 

How many times did he bail out of there and throw it away, which is an incompletion? How many times did he have to do that vs. this guy and vs. that guy? And you also looked at what’s going on when he’s missing, when he should have made the play, what’s going on? 

 

And to us, it was pretty clear it’s when his feet were not right. The most positive thing I saw, when he was at the Senior Bowl, his feet were in a much better position that week, he was much more accurate, not only during the week, but even in the game.

 

The great thing about the game – I know his agents were all wanting him to play a series or two and get out because everyone is fearing injury – and he was like, ‘No, I’m coming back in the second half.’ His agent was probably like, ‘why?’ and he came back and led them on two different touchdown drives.”

 

 

Edited June 18, 2019 by Nihilarian