Josh Allen: Film Review From a Cynical Man

[K-9]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

 

What about when you say other stuff?  Or nothing at all?  

Well, I most likely deserve it. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

13 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

I think such stats are of limited use. I personally believe they can be used to provide context to some position you might want to take on a given subject, but it’s foolish, in most cases, to use them as proof.

Especially if the stat in question is taken out of context, or without other stats that might run contrary to one’s opinion. I think they often get used by people who spend a lot more time reading about football, rather than watching football to try to make themselves look smart. 

 

 

...exactly why I hate them after 56+ years following the game/Bflo.....same damn stats can be easily manipulated to prove one's point and disprove another's.......just a sliver of the overall evaluative process IMO.....

[Nihilarian]

What so many Bills fans seem to forget is that Josh Allen wasn't supposed to start in 2018. He was supposed to sit and learn while Peterman played behind that craptastic line with the inferior receiver corps and he would take the beating. Allen was graded as a developmental project and the Bills FO acknowledged this and had Peterman taking all the first string reps.

 

Then Allen was thrown into the fire, unprepared to fight that fire, and what a fire! It was a full blown dumpster tire fire with an OC who had never fielded a better then 23rd passing offense in his previous four years in the NFL as an OC. A QB coach who had never been an NFL QB coach. No veteran QB on the roster to help this rookie learn the NFL ropes. We already talked about the bad line and receiver corps. 

 

Yes, Josh Allen had a rocky NFL start in his first season.  Allen had 11 game starts and went 5-6 with an inferior offense around him and like at Wyoming in his final year he basically needed to carry the entire offense on his shoulders. There was no real run game by the Bills RB's as Allen was the teams leading rusher with 631 yards, 8 TDs. The teams top two passing targets had 80 missed targets between them and thus the reason as to why one WR outright cut while the WR coach was replaced. 

 

In 2018 QB Josh Allen WAS the offense while LeSean McCoy was averaging a measly 3.2 YPC avg while Josh Allen was averaging a crazy 7.1 YPC avg. That 5-6 win/loss record would more then likely be 6-6 if Allen didn't get hurt in that Texans game and Peterman throwing two INTs with a pick 6. 

 

The NY Jets finished 4-12 with their rookie QB picked at the #3 spot. Cleveland was only one game better with the #1 overall pick on a much better team. The majority of this board wanted Josh Rosen in the draft and he went 3-10 at Arizona with a QBR of 26.6. 

 

Get a grip folks, he was a rookie who didn't do so bad with one of the worst offenses the Bills have ever fielded. I for one am very excited to see what the kid can do with a decent line, decent receivers and now given the time to learn the offense.

 

I can see playoffs year after year for Buffalo in the near future. 

Edited June 17, 2019 by Nihilarian

[Augie]

2 hours ago, K-9 said:

And a release 10x quicker, too. Which is such a critical aspect on so many throws, especially those long outs from the far hash. I shudder to think of Fitz triple hitching on some of those. Triple hitching! It was painful to watch. 

 

Yeah, nobody wants the punter getting jealous of the hang time Fitz has on those long outs.....

 

 

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

1 hour ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

...exactly why I hate them after 56+ years following the game/Bflo.....same damn stats can be easily manipulated to prove one's point and disprove another's.......just a sliver of the overall evaluative process IMO.....

 

A favorite line of mine is "Stats never lie, but they rarely tell the whole truth".

[oldmanfan]

2 hours ago, Bruce Harper said:

 

Your point is well-taken about completion percentage not equaling accuracy, but I'm not sure there's a better stat available to gauge accuracy.  I'm looking forward to the division games.  Even if I'm not sold on Allen yet I think the Bills are building things the right way.

Several folks around here have evaluated him pass by pass.  Data are somewhat different, and some of that is confirmation bias.  I did the last two games and his accuracy was fine.  The precision, or what some would call ball placement, can be improved.  You can be very accurate, put the ball well within the receiver's catch radius.  But if you have it six inches behind him vs. six inches ahead it can make a difference as to whether the DB brings him diwn for no gain vs. having significant YAC.  Allen can stand to improve precision especially on short throws.

 

On completion percentage, if 60% is the standard, and we assume he throws 25 balls a game as an average, it's around 2 completions a game to get him from 52% to 60%.  Getting rid of Benjamin and Clay takes care of that all by itself.

[thebandit27]

2 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

What so many Bills fans seem to forget is that Josh Allen wasn't supposed to start in 2018. He was supposed to sit and learn while Peterman played behind that craptastic line with the inferior receiver corps and he would take the beating. Allen was graded as a developmental project and the Bills FO acknowledged this and had Peterman taking all the first string reps.

 

Then Allen was thrown into the fire, unprepared to fight that fire, and what a fire! It was a full blown dumpster tire fire with an OC who had never fielded a better then 23rd passing offense in his previous four years in the NFL as an OC. A QB coach who had never been an NFL QB coach. No veteran QB on the roster to help this rookie learn the NFL ropes. We already talked about the bad line and receiver corps. 

 

Yes, Josh Allen had a rocky NFL start in his first season.  Allen had 11 game starts and went 5-6 with an inferior offense around him and like at Wyoming in his final year he basically needed to carry the entire offense on his shoulders. There was no real run game by the Bills RB's as Allen was the teams leading rusher with 631 yards, 8 TDs. The teams top two passing targets had 80 missed targets between them and thus the reason as to why one WR outright cut while the WR coach was replaced. 

 

In 2018 QB Josh Allen WAS the offense while LeSean McCoy was averaging a measly 3.2 YPC avg while Josh Allen was averaging a crazy 7.1 YPC avg. That 5-6 win/loss record would more then likely be 6-6 if Allen didn't get hurt in that Texans game and Peterman throwing two INTs with a pick 6. 

 

The NY Jets finished 4-12 with their rookie QB picked at the #3 spot. Cleveland was only one game better with the #1 overall pick on a much better team. The majority of this board wanted Josh Rosen in the draft and he went 3-10 at Arizona with a QBR of 26.6. 

 

Get a grip folks, he was a rookie who didn't do so bad with one of the worst offenses the Bills have ever fielded. I for one am very excited to see what the kid can do with a decent line, decent receivers and now given the time to learn the offense.

 

I can see playoffs year after year for Buffalo in the near future. 

 

I wasn't going to go down the "he was literally the entire offense" road, regardless of how true it was.

 

But since someone else opened the door, I present this: Josh Allen was responsible for 81% of the team's yards and 85% of the team's first downs in the games he played.

 

Only one other team, TB, had its QB tandem account for a greater percentage of their offensive yardage and first downs...and Tampa Bay had Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Adam Humphries, Chris Godwin, and OJ Howard as the primary targets.

[Dr.Mantis_Toboggan]

On 6/16/2019 at 6:43 PM, SoTier said:

If will, drive, and leadership were all it took to become a great NFL QB, then Allen would undoubtedly become one.  Unfortunately, that's enough.  He has to develop the physical skills and learn to make good decisions under pressure in order to become a good enough QB to consistently lead his team to wins.   It's a tall order for Allen because he came into the NFL so raw and unprepared, and bnumerous first roundQB prospects who had excellent physical skills and were much more "NFL ready" than he was have failed that same test. 

 

At this point, nobody really knows just how good he can be, but he probably has to show significant improvement in order to have a better career than guys like Tannehill or Bortles.

Wow... such a bad take.  Even mentioning him in the same breathe as Bortles and Tannehill is laughable.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

3 minutes ago, Dr.Mantis_Toboggan said:

Wow... such a bad take.  Even mentioning him in the same breathe as Bortles and Tannehill is laughable.

 

You realize of course that guy's been anti-Allen since they drafted him, right?

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

What so many Bills fans seem to forget is that Josh Allen wasn't supposed to start in 2018. He was supposed to sit and learn while Peterman played behind that craptastic line with the inferior receiver corps and he would take the beating. Allen was graded as a developmental project and the Bills FO acknowledged this and had Peterman taking all the first string reps.

 

 

Actually this part is actually incorrect.  Both McD and Beane publicly (and multiple times) have confirmed that going into the 3rd preseason game the plan was to start Josh Allen week 1.  But the starting unit, especially the OL, was so bad that game they decided to try and hold it off a little bit longer.  

[Rocket94]

On 6/16/2019 at 5:43 PM, SoTier said:

If will, drive, and leadership were all it took to become a great NFL QB, then Allen would undoubtedly become one.  Unfortunately, that's enough.  He has to develop the physical skills and learn to make good decisions under pressure in order to become a good enough QB to consistently lead his team to wins.   It's a tall order for Allen because he came into the NFL so raw and unprepared, and bnumerous first roundQB prospects who had excellent physical skills and were much more "NFL ready" than he was have failed that same test. 

 

At this point, nobody really knows just how good he can be, but he probably has to show significant improvement in order to have a better career than guys like Tannehill or Bortles.

I believe Allen will be superior to Tannehill and Bortles. No doubt in my mind. Come to think of it, the more weapons he has...the more dangerous he will be. It could get scary!

[Augie]

13 minutes ago, Rocket94 said:

I believe Allen will be superior to Tannehill and Bortles. No doubt in my mind. Come to think of it, the more weapons he has...the more dangerous he will be. It could get scary!

 

Fitzy was scary, but you had to be in the right mood to be able to just laugh at it sometimes. 

 

Josh has the tools, and I pray he figures out how to read a defense and put the ball on a dime like Brady. Greedy? Sure! Why not? 

[Rocket94]

53 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Fitzy was scary, but you had to be in the right mood to be able to just laugh at it sometimes. 

 

Josh has the tools, and I pray he figures out how to read a defense and put the ball on a dime like Brady. Greedy? Sure! Why not? 

The only concerns I have with Allen are reading defenses, his accuracy and becoming a complete quarterback. We all know what he was faced with last year. I believe he will do the best he can, especially being a year removed from it...and he has a better supporting cast to help him. I suppose it can be fun to  watch the growing pains. Fitzpatrick? The consumate, cerebral, professional quarterback who will give you 200% and manage the game every Sunday.  

Edited June 18, 2019 by Rocket94

[Nextmanup]

On 6/16/2019 at 6:43 PM, SoTier said:

If will, drive, and leadership were all it took to become a great NFL QB, then Allen would undoubtedly become one.  Unfortunately, that's enough.  He has to develop the physical skills and learn to make good decisions under pressure in order to become a good enough QB to consistently lead his team to wins.   It's a tall order for Allen because he came into the NFL so raw and unprepared, and bnumerous first roundQB prospects who had excellent physical skills and were much more "NFL ready" than he was have failed that same test. 

 

At this point, nobody really knows just how good he can be, but he probably has to show significant improvement in order to have a better career than guys like Tannehill or Bortles.

Well said.  Thoughts like this will continue to receive a lot of flak around here until enough games have been played for everyone to catch on that Allen is not as good as hoped.

 

Interesting that you brought up the name "Tannehill".

 

My greatest fear is that Allen turns into another Tannehill.  By this, I mean someone who has the appearance of a potentially good QB and does some good things, some of the time...but is fundamentally lousy.  However, his upside is strong enough that he lingers as the starting QB for a substantial period of time.

 

We would all be much better served if Allen flamed out horrifically.  

 

Being in Tannehill Limbo for 4 or 5 years until people catch on we need a good QB and need to go in a different direction is not a place I want to be.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 18, 2019 by Nextmanup

[Coach Tuesday]

This is getting interesting.

[VW82]

Great post by OP. Pretty much mirrors my thoughts on Allen. There are definitely issues with accuracy and decision making but the kid has a penchant for explosive plays.

 

I hope we embrace his strengths and don’t get too caught up in trying to turn him into something he isn’t. Simplify the game for him. Don’t ask him to make a bunch of quick reads or difficult throws with the receiver in motion. Let him be an athlete, and take off if need be. Have the receivers run come back routes or sit down in zone coverage. He can make those throws. 

 

The future is exciting. 

[oldmanfan]

15 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Well said.  Thoughts like this will continue to receive a lot of flak around here until enough games have been played for everyone to catch on that Allen is not as good as hoped.

 

Interesting that you brought up the name "Tannehill".

 

My greatest fear is that Allen turns into another Tannehill.  By this, I mean someone who has the appearance of a potentially good QB and does some good things, some of the time...but is fundamentally lousy.  However, his upside is strong enough that he lingers as the starting QB for a substantial period of time.

 

We would all be much better served if Allen flamed out horrifically.  

 

Being in Tannehill Limbo for 4 or 5 years until people catch on we need a good QB and need to go in a different direction is not a place I want to be.

 

 

 

 

You want Allen to flame out horrifically.  That's just great.

[Rocky Landing]

3 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Well said.  Thoughts like this will continue to receive a lot of flak around here until enough games have been played for everyone to catch on that Allen is not as good as hoped.

 

Interesting that you brought up the name "Tannehill".

 

My greatest fear is that Allen turns into another Tannehill.  By this, I mean someone who has the appearance of a potentially good QB and does some good things, some of the time...but is fundamentally lousy.  However, his upside is strong enough that he lingers as the starting QB for a substantial period of time.

 

We would all be much better served if Allen flamed out horrifically.  

 

Being in Tannehill Limbo for 4 or 5 years until people catch on we need a good QB and need to go in a different direction is not a place I want to be.

 

 

 

 

I’m curious to know if you thought Allen improved last season after coming back from his elbow injury?

 

and, is there anything in his tape that would lead you to believe he will “flame out horrifically?"

Edited June 18, 2019 by Rocky Landing

[Augie]

9 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

 I’m curious to know if you thought Allen improved last season after coming back from his elbow injury?

 

and, is there anything in his tape that would lead you to believe he will “flame out horrifically?

 

It was night and day, and a blessing in disguise. Things seemed to be spiraling downwards, but he got some time off to regroup and then the  game seemed to slow down for him. Am I 100% convinced he’s the real deal? Not yet, but I’m very hopeful. 

[Rocky Landing]

5 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

It was night and day, and a blessing in disguise. Things seemed to be spiraling downwards, but he got some time off to regroup and then the  game seemed to slow down for him. Am I 100% convinced he’s the real deal? Not yet, but I’m very hopeful. 

I agree entirely. I was arguing for Barkley to finish the season after his showing in the Jets game. Glad I was wrong. 

 

Im just trying to figure out where someone like Nextmanup’s head is at.