Josh Allen: Film Review From a Cynical Man

[HappyDays]

10 minutes ago, Ronin said:

No, I changed names, didn't like that one.   I have one, never been any different

 

Ah, okay. You only have one account, but you just admitted you changed from that account back to this one. You are a walking contradiction.

[RoyBatty is alive]

1 minute ago, Ronin said:

 

Yes, quicker release, but again, amidst the other issues, so what.  

 

All these strengths simply didn't do much for Allen last year as he finished the season as among the bottom ranked passers.  

 

All we can do is try to explain it.  Most here blame it on anyone but Allen.  Again, that's not wise, but hey, everyone's entitled to an opinion regardless of how unsubstantiated and predicated upon false narratives it is.   

 

So we have a QB that can heave the ball out of the stadium, one with a quick release, but one that can't seem to find his way out of a wet paper bag in the short game, particularly in the Red Zone where was not merely poor but absymal when he didn't run it himself.  

 

Which one of those two characteristics do you think will trump the other in the long haul?  

 

My god.

 

1) The KID was a raw rookie

2) He improved DRAMATICALLY from before and after he got hurt, he made tremendous progress.

3) You claim again he was abysmal in red zone, but now you add as I mentioned he was very effective running the ball in the red zone, i dont care if he throws it or runs, a Td is a TD.

4) Look at his supporting cast, was that a mauler oi line that was effective at all, esp in the red zone.  And look at the receivers and TEs, enough said.

[thebandit27]

Just now, Ronin said:

 

I'm sorry, I couldn't hear you, did you want to go thru the game log play-by-play to find all of those game-saving passes?  

 

 

It's pretty darn easy...just go to your timestamps and look at the very next play in 80% of instances.  Not hard at all.  Watch with no agenda and you'll see it.

 

Look, if you can't bother to read the post then don't respond. That you could read my post and respond that I'm defending anything is the height of obfuscation.

 

I also find it interesting that you picked the only game where Allen didn't throw a TD pass to analyze his passing, and use it as support for the idea that he didn't improve as a passer as the season progressed.

 

You want evidence of improvement?  I'll make it simple:

 

Josh Allen's 6 pre-injury game passing stats:

75/139, 832 yards, 2 TDs, 5 INTs, 61.8 passer rating, 21 sacks

 

Josh Allen's 6 post-injury game passing stats:

94/181, 1242 yards, 8 TDs, 7 INTs, 72.57 passer rating, 7 sacks

 

Now go ahead and say that the Week 17 game doesn't count, because it's the only leg that you have to stand on.

[K-9]

1 minute ago, Ronin said:

 

Yes, quicker release, but again, amidst the other issues, so what.  

 

All these strengths simply didn't do much for Allen last year as he finished the season as among the bottom ranked passers.  

 

All we can do is try to explain it.  Most here blame it on anyone but Allen.  Again, that's not wise, but hey, everyone's entitled to an opinion regardless of how unsubstantiated and predicated upon false narratives it is.   

 

So we have a QB that can heave the ball out of the stadium, one with a quick release, but one that can't seem to find his way out of a wet paper bag in the short game, particularly in the Red Zone where was not merely poor but absymal when he didn't run it himself.  

 

Which one of those two characteristics do you think will trump the other in the long haul?  

So what? Really? Does it really have to be explained? Especially "amidst the other issues", a strong arm and quick release are two desireable boxes to check off. 

 

His game needs work, no doubt. And I still subscribe to the old adage of "1,000 attempts" before an honest determination can be made. But if you're gonna write off his ability to mature and develop those other parts of his game after only 11 starts and 320 attempts, what's the point? 

[RoyBatty is alive]

2 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

He had 4 Red Zone passing TDs all season, two of which were in that last Miami game, a mere 2 in 11 games prior to that.  

 

Worst in the league.  

 

How many in regular season games won whereby those deep throws were the reason for the win?  Particularly contrasted with the games in which he fared poorly because his short  game was bad?  

 

In the last five games prior to the Miami game, at the end of the season when everyone claims that Allen improved significantly, the team averaged 18 ppg under him.  That's pretty much a league worst as a season goes.  Only three teams scored fewer ppg than that on the season, besides us of course.  Washington, where we got one of our improved OL-men from, Arizona, and Jax, three absolutely horrible offensive teams.  

 

You can draw whatever conclusion you want from that.  

 

 

 

We are going over the same ground.  Strange you dont mention how many red zone rushing TDs  he had?

 

You keep cherry picking whatever stats you want to support your thesis.  Why soddenly are you going to to teams stats,  PPG,  from his individual stats to demonstrate he didnt improve. (BTW  the Bills avgd 15 ppg with Allen starting  before he was hurt, so 18 is actually an improvement).  And Why did you only use the last 5 games for your PPG instead 6? 

 

If you dont think Allen improved in the second half of the season I am not going to try and convince you otherwise.   

[Ronin]

8 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

We are going over the same ground.  Strange you dont mention how many red zone rushing TDs  he had?

 

You keep cherry picking whatever stats you want to support your thesis.  Why soddenly are you going to to teams stats,  PPG,  from his individual stats to demonstrate he didnt improve. (BTW  the Bills avgd 15 ppg with Allen starting  before he was hurt, so 18 is actually an improvement).  And Why did you only use the last 5 games for your PPG instead 6? 

 

If you dont think Allen improved in the second half of the season I am not going to try and convince you otherwise.   

 

See the above post.  

 

And yes, we are going over the same ground.  But sorry, I simply don't see how games 11-15 can be considered a significant improvement.  

 

I will suggest this however, that the fact that you and others do may be part of the difference in our opinions and viewpoints on this.  Just sayin'.  

 

What I see, even in games 11-15, is bottom-dwelling passing.  In fact it is.  So unless we're going to put all  of the emphasis on that Miami game, again, I'd strongly suggest that we have entirely different standards for success at the QB position in the NFL.  ... which is fine.  Again, just sayin'.  

 

And frankly I think that's what we have here.  Many that are counting on Allen to play the way that he did in one game, while others see the other 11 games as all but a complete disaster and question which Josh Allen will show up.  I suppose it's possible that he'll play lights out ball all season like he did vs. Miami.  I happen to think that much of that game was predicated upon a flat and apathetic Miami team showing up and I don't see our opponents meeting us like that for 16 games, but hey, maybe I'm wrong.  

 

No one seems to want to address Allen's horrific YPA and Adj. YPA tho either.  I mean his YPA ranked 32nd of 33 ahead of only Rosen and his Adj. YPA the same. 

 

But he's got the strongest arm in the league, which I'm not even questioning, but then how does one explain and reconcile that?  

 

Naturally none of it has to do with him, yeah, I get that.  LOL  

 

Anyway, enough for today.  Have a good one.   

Edited June 17, 2019 by Ronin

[Bruce Harper]

Understand that this is coming from a Jets and Darnold fan, just to put my biases out there.  And I fully expect to be flamed for this.

 

Allen is a rare talent.  Superior arm (among the best in the league), great wheels, tough as nails.  Will make plays that will make your jaw drop.  And seems like a good kid.  But I'm not convinced that he will ever be accurate enough to be a top level QB in the NFL. 

 

I'm a big believer in past production.  He completed 55% of his passes in high school.  47% of his passes in Junior college.  56% at Wyoming. 52% last year.  In the modern NFL, 60% seems to be the floor of where you need to be to succeed.  He needs to get there.  Maybe he can if the OL gets better and with better skill guys.  But that would be an unusual jump, as the vast majority of guys' completion percentages don't improve when they get to the pros.  If he does, though, he could be the cream of the crop.

[thebandit27]

13 minutes ago, Bruce Harper said:

Understand that this is coming from a Jets and Darnold fan, just to put my biases out there.  And I fully expect to be flamed for this.

 

Allen is a rare talent.  Superior arm (among the best in the league), great wheels, tough as nails.  Will make plays that will make your jaw drop.  And seems like a good kid.  But I'm not convinced that he will ever be accurate enough to be a top level QB in the NFL. 

 

I'm a big believer in past production.  He completed 55% of his passes in high school.  47% of his passes in Junior college.  56% at Wyoming. 52% last year.  In the modern NFL, 60% seems to be the floor of where you need to be to succeed.  He needs to get there.  Maybe he can if the OL gets better and with better skill guys.  But that would be an unusual jump, as the vast majority of guys' completion percentages don't improve when they get to the pros.  If he does, though, he could be the cream of the crop.

 

That's the generally-accepted viewpoint 'round these parts as well.

 

Most folks fall into the "cautiously optimistic" or "guarded skepticism" category.  Not too many folks are thoroughly convinced in either direction, though the folks that are so convinced love to pretend that everyone that isn't convinced of their particular viewpoint falls on the other extreme.

 

The only bone I pick is with the 60% metric.  We've beaten it up pretty good on this board, but there are plenty of examples of college QBs that have made the jump, and there are also examples of guys not being 60-percenters that have had solid NFL careers. Some of those guys (like Cam Newton for example) even go on to make meteoric jumps in completion percentage later in their careers.

 

But that's minutiae IMO...the real keys for Allen right now are play recognition, learning to take what the defense gives him, and not rushing his throws.

Edited June 17, 2019 by thebandit27

[Bruce Harper]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

That's the generally-accepted viewpoint 'round these parts as well.

 

Most folks fall into the "cautiously optimistic" or "guarded skepticism" category.  Not too many folks are thoroughly convinced in either direction, though the folks that are so convinced love to pretend that everyone that isn't convinced of their particular viewpoint falls on the other extreme.

 

The only bone I pick is with the 60% metric.  We've beaten it up pretty good on this board, but there are plenty of examples of college QBs that have made the jump, and there are also examples of guys not being 60-percenters that have had solid NFL careers. Some of those guys (like Cam Newton for example) even go on to make meteoric jumps in completion percentage later in their careers.

 

But that's minutiae IMO...the real keys for Allen right now are play recognition, learning to take what the defense gives him, and not rushing his throws.

 

That's a good point about Cam, especially because there are some similarities in their skills.  Hey, if I'm going to say you can't judge my guy (Darnold) by his rookie year, the same would certainly apply to Allen.  It's going to be fun to watch them develop in any event.

[Captain Hindsight]

2 minutes ago, Bruce Harper said:

Understand that this is coming from a Jets and Darnold fan, just to put my biases out there.  And I fully expect to be flamed for this.

 

Allen is a rare talent.  Superior arm (among the best in the league), great wheels, tough as nails.  Will make plays that will make your jaw drop.  And seems like a good kid.  But I'm not convinced that he will ever be accurate enough to be a top level QB in the NFL. 

 

I'm a big believer in past production.  He completed 55% of his passes in high school.  47% of his passes in Junior college.  56% at Wyoming. 52% last year.  In the modern NFL, 60% seems to be the floor of where you need to be to succeed.  He needs to get there.  Maybe he can if the OL gets better and with better skill guys.  But that would be an unusual jump, as the vast majority of guys' completion percentages don't improve when they get to the pros.  If he does, though, he could be the cream of the crop.

Completion % is not accuracy. I wish people would stop equating the two because they are different.

 

I have no issue with his completion percentage in his rookie year. I wanted Allen to let it rip and attempt every high risk throw every game. Let him see what his arm can do at this level. Can I make this throw? What about this throw? Can corners cover this throw? What is my limit? 

 

If he was making dumb throws into triple coverage on the regular, I'd be worried. But I watch him play and I see a game who is constantly looking to make a play. I love that about him and I hope he continues to do it. Big QBs make big plays in big time moments and you only have a chance to complete those if your willing to attempt it. I'll take a gunslinger with a never say die attitude every time over someone who is afraid of a turnover in that situation. 

 

Also, with respect to Darnold, that kid is an absolute stud. As a football fan I'm excited to watch him. As a Bills fan I hope he ***** the bed twice a year

[thebandit27]

7 minutes ago, Bruce Harper said:

 

That's a good point about Cam, especially because there are some similarities in their skills.  Hey, if I'm going to say you can't judge my guy (Darnold) by his rookie year, the same would certainly apply to Allen.  It's going to be fun to watch them develop in any event.

 

I would't judge any QB by his rookie year...I did say in the leadup to the 2018 draft that I felt all 5 QBs had a real chance to be franchise-caliber, and I'll stand by that.  I had Mayfield and Rosen as 1a and 1b, followed by Darnold at 3 and Allen at 4.  I had Jackson as a round 1 guy but behind the others.

 

I think Darnold certainly showed some chops as a rookie.  I also think that he's still got some ball security issues, and I don't love his pocket mechanics yet.

 

For me personally, I think the AFC East is the most intriguing division in the game when it comes to QB development over the next half-decade.

[Bruce Harper]

2 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:

Completion % is not accuracy. I wish people would stop equating the two because they are different.

 

I have no issue with his completion percentage in his rookie year. I wanted Allen to let it rip and attempt every high risk throw every game. Let him see what his arm can do at this level. Can I make this throw? What about this throw? Can corners cover this throw? What is my limit? 

 

If he was making dumb throws into triple coverage on the regular, I'd be worried. But I watch him play and I see a game who is constantly looking to make a play. I love that about him and I hope he continues to do it. Big QBs make big plays in big time moments and you only have a chance to complete those if your willing to attempt it. I'll take a gunslinger with a never say die attitude every time over someone who is afraid of a turnover in that situation. 

 

Also, with respect to Darnold, that kid is an absolute stud. As a football fan I'm excited to watch him. As a Bills fan I hope he ***** the bed twice a year

 

Your point is well-taken about completion percentage not equaling accuracy, but I'm not sure there's a better stat available to gauge accuracy.  I'm looking forward to the division games.  Even if I'm not sold on Allen yet I think the Bills are building things the right way.

[Rocky Landing]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I was waiting for you to fall back on that BS.  Look at the difference between his first 6 games and Weeks 11-16 (so as not to include the Miami game, which was week 17, but whatever).  Definite improvement, even if you don't want to admit it.

 

As for extrapolating a guy's first 11 games into a career, well, that's stupid.  Do it for Jared Goff and see what you get.  Do it for Mitchell Trubisky and see what you get.

 

How about this stat line for a first 11 games?

 

223/407, 2,453 yards, 16 TDs, 22 INTs, 63.4 passer rating

 

Would you rather have that stat line, or the one below?

 

205/304, 2,497 yards, 16 TDs, 4 INTs, 104.56 passer rating

 

Congratulations...based upon their first 11 games in the NFL, you just picked RG3 over Peyton Manning.

 

Look, this isn't complicated: you are (to put it mildly) an Allen skeptic.  Fine.  Justified even.  What I think most of us are asking for is a modicum of intellectual honesty when it comes to evaluating him.  You frequently make totally unsubstantiated statements about the guy (he routinely has plenty of time when he's pressured on almost 41% of his dropbacks, his WRs often flail their arms in disgust with zero evidence of that, etc.) and then talk past anyone that points it out.

 

It's not difficult to take a defensible position against Allen developing into a franchise QB.  All I (and others) have said is to base it upon real, objective evaluation; don't make stuff up.

Cherry-picked stats, bent to support his narrative packed into overly long posts. If you call him out on it, he will engage in straw man arguments supported by more cherry picked data packed into another overly long post. Keep calling him out, and he will put you on his ever-growing ignore list. 

 

In another thread, he was comparing Sills college completion % to Jones’ pro completion % (void of context, mind you), while ignoring things like drop rate (or anything else that didn’t support his crusade), in 400+ word posts. It didn’t take long for him to put me on ignore, and I am better off for it. 

[YattaOkasan]

36 minutes ago, Bruce Harper said:

 

Your point is well-taken about completion percentage not equaling accuracy, but I'm not sure there's a better stat available to gauge accuracy.  I'm looking forward to the division games.  Even if I'm not sold on Allen yet I think the Bills are building things the right way.

There really isnt a better gauge is the problem.  You would have to put them in shorts and let them throw to really know.  I think Josh scores well in those situations actually (he seems to be really good at hitting cross bars from time with Simms and Dilfer).  The  processing and system is what drives a lot of this.  The point about extrapolating Dak's attempts from LOS to 10 yards for Josh was great.  He attempts throws down field and it drives his numbers down.  I dont agree with every play ronin identified but there are some plays he should hit the check down.

[K-9]

59 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

That's the generally-accepted viewpoint 'round these parts as well.

 

Most folks fall into the "cautiously optimistic" or "guarded skepticism" category.  Not too many folks are thoroughly convinced in either direction, though the folks that are so convinced love to pretend that everyone that isn't convinced of their particular viewpoint falls on the other extreme.

 

The only bone I pick is with the 60% metric.  We've beaten it up pretty good on this board, but there are plenty of examples of college QBs that have made the jump, and there are also examples of guys not being 60-percenters that have had solid NFL careers. Some of those guys (like Cam Newton for example) even go on to make meteoric jumps in completion percentage later in their careers.

 

But that's minutiae IMO...the real keys for Allen right now are play recognition, learning to take what the defense gives him, and not rushing his throws.

Not me. Not this experienced observer of great QBs! I am what I refer to as RECKLESSLY optimistic about Allen; caution fully thrown to the wind!

 

Mark my words or hear me now and listen to me later: when it’s all said and done, Josh Allen will be the best QB of his class and a first ballot HOFer. 

 

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Ah, okay. You only have one account, but you just admitted you changed from that account back to this one. You are a walking contradiction.

 

 

...LOL...."Happy Days" equals............

 

[thebandit27]

8 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

Cherry-picked stats, bent to support his narrative packed into overly long posts. If you call him out on it, he will engage in straw man arguments supported by more cherry picked data packed into another overly long post. Keep calling him out, and he will put you on his ever-growing ignore list. 

 

In another thread, he was comparing Sills college completion % to Jones’ pro completion % (void of context, mind you), while ignoring things like drop rate (or anything else that didn’t support his crusade), in 400+ word posts. It didn’t take long for him to put me on ignore, and I am better off for it. 

 

Cherry-picked stats I can handle just fine...where it gets out of bounds for me is the totally made-up stuff or complete willful ignorance of counterpoints. A perfect example is the idea that we should disregard Allen's Week 17 performance because, well, reasons. Instead, let's focus on the Jets game because, well, other reasons.

 

There's not an Allen-supporter alive that doesn't acknowledge that he needs to improve in several areas. Claiming otherwise is simply a tool to allow oneself to shout louder and more frequently.

 

1 minute ago, K-9 said:

Not me. Not this experienced observer of great QBs! I am what I refer to as RECKLESSLY optimistic about Allen; caution fully thrown to the wind!

 

Mark my words or hear me now and listen to me later: when it’s all said and done, Josh Allen will be the best QB of his class and a first ballot HOFer. 

 

 

 

That makes you more confident than me for sure.

 

The furthest I'll go is this: if indeed Allen can improve in the 3 key areas of play recognition, taking what the defense gives him, and not rushing his setup/delivery, he's going to become a franchise QB...and if he becomes a franchise QB, this team is going to win a Super Bowl.

[Rocky Landing]

43 minutes ago, Bruce Harper said:

 

Your point is well-taken about completion percentage not equaling accuracy, but I'm not sure there's a better stat available to gauge accuracy.  I'm looking forward to the division games.  Even if I'm not sold on Allen yet I think the Bills are building things the right way.

I think such stats are of limited use. I personally believe they can be used to provide context to some position you might want to take on a given subject, but it’s foolish, in most cases, to use them as proof.

Especially if the stat in question is taken out of context, or without other stats that might run contrary to one’s opinion. I think they often get used by people who spend a lot more time reading about football, rather than watching football to try to make themselves look smart. 

[K-9]

3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Cherry-picked stats I can handle just fine...where it gets out of bounds for me is the totally made-up stuff or complete willful ignorance of counterpoints. A perfect example is the idea that we should disregard Allen's Week 17 performance because, well, reasons. Instead, let's focus on the Jets game because, well, other reasons.

 

There's not an Allen-supporter alive that doesn't acknowledge that he needs to improve in several areas. Claiming otherwise is simply a tool to allow oneself to shout louder and more frequently.

 

 

That makes you more confident than me for sure.

 

The furthest I'll go is this: if indeed Allen can improve in the 3 key areas of play recognition, taking what the defense gives him, and not rushing his setup/delivery, he's going to become a franchise QB...and if he becomes a franchise QB, this team is going to win a Super Bowl.

Indeed. And I'm not surprised we agree on those three exact elements of his game. One reason why I'm confident is that he showed marked improvement in all three aspects upon his return. Why wouldn't I consider him to continue that trajectory this season? Of course there are gonna be bumps and the pitchfork and shovel crowd will be out in full force, but we both know that's a natural part of development.

 

He started to act like the game slowed down considerably upon his return last year. He was clearly starting to get it. And the reports out of OTAs and mini camp of him showing receivers how to run routes and starting to make the team his own have me convinced. 

 

He's gonna be a star for a long time in this league. And I don't care how many times I'm called stupid when I say it. 

[thebandit27]

4 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Indeed. And I'm not surprised we agree on those three exact elements of his game. One reason why I'm confident is that he showed marked improvement in all three aspects upon his return. Why wouldn't I consider him to continue that trajectory this season? Of course there are gonna be bumps and the pitchfork and shovel crowd will be out in full force, but we both know that's a natural part of development.

 

He started to act like the game slowed down considerably upon his return last year. He was clearly starting to get it. And the reports out of OTAs and mini camp of him showing receivers how to run routes and starting to make the team his own have me convinced. 

 

He's gonna be a star for a long time in this league. And I don't care how many times I'm called stupid when I say it. 

 

What about when you say other stuff?  Or nothing at all?