Captain Hindsight Posted June 17, 2019 Posted June 17, 2019 23 minutes ago, Ronin said: As unfortunate as it is, many posters take that same level of invested emotional overreaction to the forums. Please don't take this personally, but I've never understood anyone that would let the performance of the team, no matter how poor, affect their personal lives or interactions with others, particularly family members. I've read a number of poeple post the same thing tho. I applaud you for recognizing that and for stepping back in life. Sports should be for a positive emotional experience. If that doesn't occur, I simply wait until it does. I don't go to games anymore and until further notice. I cancelled my seasons years ago accompanied with a letter that told the team that when they got serious about building a winner I'd start buying tickets again. Hasn't happened as of yet and I don't believe anything they tell me anymore. Every year we're on the cusp of a major turnaround, no different this year. Some people let gamedays entirely ruin their Sundays, for the life of me I cannot even remotely fathom that other than being irritated that they wasted four hours of their day, longer if they went to the game, and perhaps a some money, on something that aggravates them. But again, that same emotional lack of control shows up here to disallow any ratioinal discussion of the team, coaches, methodologies, etc. Case in point, some people react to my posts as others would to an armed robbery of their home. LOL I've gotten a lot better. I used to let it control my whole day. Now I usually am bummed for about an hour or so but then move on. I'm always much happier after a win of course The only time i'm ever legit angry, is when I feel cheated or made out to be a sucker. Last time was when they trotted out Peterman against the Bears. I felt like I was wasting my money and was more upset by that, than the actual loss 1
Ronin Posted June 17, 2019 Posted June 17, 2019 1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said: Down here in Cincinnati When friends ask me about the Bills Super Bowl losses I always tell them that I would rather go four times in a row and lose every one of them then never to have gone. For four magical years we had something special and the joy I got from reaching four straight Super Bowls easily overwhelmed the bitterness of the four straight losses. That's how I'll view Allen. He's shown me enough to justify my optimism and even if he never lives up to expectations I'll have enjoyed the time of optimism. The alternative is to walk around with a permanent rain cloud over your head. OBD continues to provide the rain cloud. For all of my posting I don't even approach letting the Bills shape my emotional disposition like so many fans do. For me it's all about the analysis. The joy of that '90s team is a distant memory, albeit it a fantastic one! I'm still awaiting the day as back then, when we could go to or otherwise watch a game with the expectation of winning, not merely the hope of winning. Hopefully this will be the season that things turnaround, but we've been saying that for what, 20-some years now. Memories only do so much for the present.
thebandit27 Posted June 17, 2019 Posted June 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said: I've gotten a lot better. I used to let it control my whole day. Now I usually am bummed for about an hour or so but then move on. I'm always much happier after a win of course The only time i'm ever legit angry, is when I feel cheated or made out to be a sucker. Last time was when they trotted out Peterman against the Bears. I felt like I was wasting my money and was more upset by that, than the actual loss That was more hilarious than anger-inducing for me. It was truly a popcorn moment. 1
Captain Hindsight Posted June 17, 2019 Posted June 17, 2019 1 minute ago, thebandit27 said: That was more hilarious than anger-inducing for me. It was truly a popcorn moment. I was laughing in the morning but by the third quarter I was so annoyed that this was the best a billion dollar organization could muster.
Ronin Posted June 17, 2019 Posted June 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: That was more hilarious than anger-inducing for me. It was truly a popcorn moment. Ya know, and that's the way you've gotta handle it. Why fans let that stuff ruin their day, week, life, relationships is beyond me.
hondo in seattle Posted June 17, 2019 Posted June 17, 2019 12 hours ago, Ronin said: OK, let's use the Week 14 Jets game. 0:15: If Allen does what average QBs do, he sees Shady at the release and hits him for a decent gain. Instead he immediately defaults to looking downfield. I count a good 4 seconds before he even has to think about scrambling, which is a lifetime in the pocket. 0:27: If he's thinking quickly, which he isn't, he has an opportunity hit McKenzie on the short out on 2nd-and-10 setting up a 3rd-and-short possibly even a 1st-down. Yes, he runs for the 1st, but again, at the expense of the passing game and risk of injury. 0:42: He misses Clay in the right flat and throws an ill-advised ball to Shady who's 7 yards behind the LoS. 1:33: Instead of relying on a seemingly good pocket Allen takes off running prematurely and fumbles the ball away. The TO resulted in a Jets FG. 2:35: Misses Ivory in the right flat and runs instead. 2:57: On 1st-and-25 from our own 11 instead of throwing the ball away he throws a highly ill-advised pass that results in an INT. 3:28: He's got a wide-open man short-right on 2nd-and-10, whereby if he hits him we likely have a 1st-down, or close. Instead he throws a horribly thrown (read highly inaccurate) all into multiple coverage nearly ending with an INT. Again, I count 3+ seconds easily with no particular pressure. 3:48: Thompson makes a beautiful break to the outside on the left but Allen's inaccurate throw is way too far outside. 4:05: I suppose this is one of those "drops" that everyone talks about, but Allen throws completely behind Jones who actually made a very nice break. Very difficult to catch ball, the announcer says "through his hands" which is ridiculous. And you know me, hardly a Jones apologist. Allen had plenty of time and it was about a 13-yard throw. 7:50: A dangerous and risky throw resulting in only a gain of 3. 4:57: Allen has all kinds of time but underthrows Ivory short. At his feet. 5:14: Instead of dumping off to Ivory or throwing the ball away as he had time to do, at Ivory's feet e.g., he takes a sack. Again, some pressure but only after 3 seconds or so. 5:35: Pressure right from the start, but instead of simply throwing the ball away once he's outside the tackle box he heaves it downfield where only a Jet defender is. He threw a lot of picks like that. 6:06: With plenty of time on a rollout, Allen ignores a wide-open Thomas and throws into triple coverage. Granted, complete, but risky contrasted with the easy play on 1st-and-10. 6:26: Allen, again, with plenty of time, doesn't see (or ignores) Murphy on the left and instead throws to the more heavily covered Jones. 6:37: Instead of throwing to Thomas as he comes out of his break Allen throws further downfield incomplete. 7:37: Horrible play! Murphy comes out of the backfield and is wide open for a huge gain if Allen hits him. Also wide open downfield is Foster. Instead of taking what the defense gives him, Allen throws into coverage and right to Trumaine Johnson on a horribly (read inaccurate) thrown ball. Now, there's absolutely no way that those things were all the result of the "D under his chin" or no talent. An open receiver is an open receiver, it doesn't matter if he's talented or not. On a side note, Darnold, facing our "highly ranked D," outplayed Allen. At one point you can hear the announcers talking about how Allen's rating is around 50 and Darnold's around 80. Also, that was one of Allen's last four games where the narrative is that he improved towards the end of the season. Another one of those four, the one prior to that last Miami game, was that horrid NE game too. So again, not really seeing where the narrative on this improvement is real. This is a great breakdown.... but you're breaking down a raw rookie - one with obvious physical upside. No one at One Bills Drive, Two Bills Drive, PFF, or anywhere else knows how much progress JA will make this year. Some choose to be optimistic. Some pessimistic. But it's all speculation. I'm hopeful but I need to see more before jumping on the JA fan bus or joining the Negative Nancy River of Tears Club.
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted June 17, 2019 Posted June 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Cornette's Commentary said: Exactly.
yungmack Posted June 17, 2019 Posted June 17, 2019 (edited) He was tagged as a project. Waiting to see if he 's actually improving which I believe he is. Edited June 17, 2019 by yungmack
Rocky Landing Posted June 17, 2019 Posted June 17, 2019 32 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said: This is a great breakdown.... but you're breaking down a raw rookie - one with obvious physical upside. No one at One Bills Drive, Two Bills Drive, PFF, or anywhere else knows how much progress JA will make this year. Some choose to be optimistic. Some pessimistic. But it's all speculation. I'm hopeful but I need to see more before jumping on the JA fan bus or joining the Negative Nancy River of Tears Club. If you compare the notes after each timeframe with the actual footage he's analyzing, you might find that it's less of "great breakdown," and more of a crusade. At best, it is biased. Frankly, I found it dishonest. 1
Drunken Pygmy Goat Posted June 17, 2019 Posted June 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Ronin said: If you ask me, players don't leave town because of the town, they leave it because of a lack of winning, generally speaking. You'll run into the occasional punk, we had one, that thinks that nightlife is more important than a multi-million dollar career, can't do anything about that. As they say, winning cures everything. So if you get good players and become good, I don't see them bolting, anymore than any other team that is, as long as the team is good. Otherwise, sure, it's a business for the owners so why shouldn't it be all business for the players too. That too is a significant challenge for GMs these days. It's well-known that it's much tougher to keep a team together today than it was in the '80s and '90s to be sure. Sometimes all you get is three or four years with a given roster, if that, but with competent management and coaching it can continue. You say that the plan seems pretty clear. Not to me, I dont' see any kind of vision here. Yes, finding a franchise QB is much more difficult than finding other positions, but it doesn't help when you add unnecessary elements of risk in trying to do so. I don't view the "bargain strategy" as much of a vision. Raiding other teams' OLs which weren't any better than ours, and for backups and low-end starters, to me isn't a strategy. It's a poke-n-hope grasping at straws. So we can agree to disagree and see how things shake out. What I will say is that two years ago we were having the exact same discussion and debate about Jones when I pointed out the risks associated with drafting him. Well, here we are. Things don't always work out as they say. How many of the cheap bargain free agents brought on two years ago in '17 are still with the team? Have you looked? How about the "ringers" from last season and overall how many? From both years, how have they played? Are fans happy? Clearly not. So if the strategy has been working, why are we where we are, with almost everyone complaining about there being what, some holes on offense? Hardly. Almost everyone says that there's no talent, as in none, around Allen. Besides Shady of course who's in completely predictable decline and who predates McBeane. Again, not seeing any positive trajectory here. If you do, great. That's what discussion is all about, right. I have no problem with it. If you don't mind, allow me to look at your strategy statement. I'll break it into parts. To me the plan seems pretty clear. The Bills are going to build their core roster via the draft and get younger (with cheaper rookie contracts), OK, that's great. But looking at our draft history I'm not exactly seeing the types of players drafted that are of the caliber that one needs for a championship run. White from '17, OK, but no one else, least of all Jones at 37th overall instead of what to me was a no-brainer Smith-Shuster. Last season they did pretty good with Neal and Johnson, and I love Edmunds but beyond that not so much yet if at all with Allen hanging on the balance. But let's not forget that they turned five picks into two, which is costly otherwise, primarily to get Allen. Everything hangs on that pick for them as a result. Cheaper contracts is one thing, but that's not really a strategy, it's what every team tries to do. Right? Or are there any teams out there that don't care about the draft as such? fill spots in FA with mainly bargain type deals, Again, bargain is one thing, championship caliber players area another. Beasley and Brown are good but they're far from being game-changing players. Players like that are not difficult to come by every offseason. As well, bargains are great, but when part of those "bargains" are injury risk, then I'm not sure how much of a bargain it is, particularly if the players aren't top-shelf to begin with. But let me ask you, while yes, that is a strategy, do you truly think that it's a good one? Teams already struggle enough with injuries, why import additional risks, particularly in positions that you're counting on the most. Brown, Morse, Murphy, Knox as a draftee, all in positions that we've counted on or are counting on them as part of that improvement. All have histories of injuries that slow them down or keep them out altogether. Again, a good overall strategy? hope their QB works out, Keep in mind, this same crew was high on Peterman. After that, yet, hope, but as they say, you make your own luck. So too, you create your own [unnecessary] risks. To wit, they drafted the riskest QB in the class, in a long time even, last year. Good strategy? We'll find out here in a few months, but let's keep this focused on the strategy. then fill remaining skill positions to put them over the top (that is when I want and expect the Bills to pursue a big FA, it may be a bit cheaper comparatively speaking). All the while focusing on retaining their best players at the most important positions At this point we're not near "the top." Otherwise, such as whom? Who are the "best players at the most important positioins" that we've signed? I see none, not one. No premier WRs, no premier OL-men, no premier TE, no premier RB. Name one premier or even impact player that we've signed for defense in the front-7? Just one. it's obvious to a blind man that McD's defensive emphasis with his past specialization in the secondary is shining thru while no other team area is. It's almost as if that's his pet project and he's happy if the secondary is tight. Which it is, just sayin'. But that's not how you build a D, you need viabel pass-rushers. We don't have one much less a championship roster full of them. You're saying that drafting young players on cheap rookie contracts, which frankly isn't a strategy, it's status quo around the NFL, signing bargain players that are either low-end starters or injury risks, making the riskiest move for a QB, then filling the remaining positions with few players that are of championship caliber is a good strategy. I'll agree, it is a strategy, I simply don't view it as a championship-developing strategy. I see it as a strategy that may get lucky briefly, but otherwise which will reap the expected results of the numerous risks involved thereby not producing a playoff-caliber team. Call me crazy. Contrast that with mine: We'd have had Smith Shuster. We'd have had Edmunds, Wynn, and then three other picks to draft another OL-man and WR last year, plus another. Let that OL gel and develop some chemistry. Draft Lock (or another) who by-the-way is very similar to Allen in terms of strengths except that doesn't lack the fundamentals of reading Ds coming in, this year to drop in behind an OL with at least a semblance of chemistry instead of one with zero chemistry, not to mention a C that's not likely to play all 16 games, along with one more OL-man, among others, maybe a true C, go ahead and grab a free-agent like Beasley despite the fact that his production matches up poorly with Allen's splits where that production has occurred, but just sayin', sign another WR. That at least seeks to A, do everything possible for whichever QB you place your trust in, and B, tries to bring everything together for a highly problematic unit. Not saying you have to agree, but it's a definitive strategy that at least is capable of producing the desired results. At least at that point you've got some potentially premier players on your offense that are capable of helping Allen and growing together, instead of a bunch of backup and low-end OL-men that we're going to delude ourselves are better than they actually are, and all from teams no better than we've been on offense and other than for an oft-injured Center. I don't see a bunch of average players fraught with injury risks being the winning ticket here. Again, call me nuts. We'll see how it all plays out this fall. First, let me just say that there's nothing wrong with constructive criticism. I say that because you an SoTier are being called out as simply being negative Nancys, but personally I understand your thought processes. This time of year generally consists of two types of louder fans: the overly optimistic, and the overly pessimistic. There are several reasons for people to be classified as such, years of torment, for example, by our favorite team can lead to some people being more pessimistic than others, sometimes illogocally, sometimes rightfully so. BUT, too often, many of these fans are so far away from the fence that it makes conversating with them pointless. Their minds are made up, and if you challenge their thoughts and opinions, they instantly resoet to defense tactics and you're simply considered an idiot. That's why I hadn't posted here since the end of the season until recently (it's hard to stay away from the madness here ? for too long). As to your post, I don't have the time to properly respond to every detail right now. My post about the plan the FO has with this team may not be an ideal approach to everyone, but when planning an attack (plan), you have to first consider the state of the team and the roster at the time. To me, this was always going to be a "slow" build, quite different to what we saw with Whaley and some rather inflated contracts. Your preference for how the team should have been built may not necessarily be "wrong", but IMO, didn't quite reflect the state of the team at the time. That, and there's some hindsight involved there. I think most people were ok with Jones in the 2nd at the time, based on his track record (all-time NCAA reception record, single season NCAA recption record). Ju-ju may have been a better prospect (I didn't know enough about him or Jones at the time to have an honest opinion), and he may have had a better career than Jones so far, but there's variables to consider there that play into that hindsight. If Jones had Big Ben and Ju-ju had Tyrod, perhaps hindsight would give a different view. Same with Mahomes as Bills QB. Granted, its probably easier to say that Mahomes would have ended up being pretty good in Buffalo, but he wouldn't have had Hunt, Hill, Kelce as his weapons, no Reed as HC, so his performance last season as Bills QB would have paled in comparison to what he did in KC. I will say that I can appreciate your thought process, regardless of whether I agree or not. I like details behind reason, and not just a generic "here's what I think, and I'm right" post. But like I said, your posts seem to contain a good amount of hindsight and future telling. One thing is true, though: we all want this plan to work out. Also, I think you're selling Hughes short. He was a premiere pass rusher last season, just didn't collect the sacks as much. As far as pass rush productivity goes, I believe he was #1 or 2 in the league last year, and I believe Oliver will help Hughes collect more sacks as a penetrating and disruptive 3 tech, provided there's not a significant drop in Hughes' play. Murphy is finally healthy entering the season, so perhaps he'll play a bit better this year as well. Next year, I fully expect the Bills to address O-line and WR early and often in the draft. Free agency, for the most part, seems to be about improving while adding insurance to the roster, in the event that the draft chips don't fall ideally for the Bills. We shall see.
YattaOkasan Posted June 17, 2019 Posted June 17, 2019 27 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said: If you compare the notes after each timeframe with the actual footage he's analyzing, you might find that it's less of "great breakdown," and more of a crusade. At best, it is biased. Frankly, I found it dishonest. Yup. I did the analysis and many of the throws to the flats were not that open (in the 0:27 play Shady is pretty clearly being covered). Couple of situational things too (whos gonna hit a guy in the flat on 3 and 20 or throw to the RB in the middle of the field with < 1 min). Generally I agree his hero ball needs to stop and that should be correctable for such a raw prospect (the PFF guys contend if he hasnt learned now he never well, but I'm not so sure). Take away hero ball and have his receivers help not hinder him would go a long way. 1
Ronin Posted June 17, 2019 Posted June 17, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, Drunken Pygmy Goat said: First, let me just say that there's nothing wrong with constructive criticism. I say that because you an SoTier are being called out as simply being negative Nancys, but personally I understand your thought processes. This time of year generally consists of two types of louder fans: the overly optimistic, and the overly pessimistic. There are several reasons for people to be classified as such, years of torment, for example, by our favorite team can lead to some people being more pessimistic than others, sometimes illogocally, sometimes rightfully so. BUT, too often, many of these fans are so far away from the fence that it makes conversating with them pointless. Their minds are made up, and if you challenge their thoughts and opinions, they instantly resoet to defense tactics and you're simply considered an idiot. That's why I hadn't posted here since the end of the season until recently (it's hard to stay away from the madness here ? for too long). As to your post, I don't have the time to properly respond to every detail right now. My post about the plan the FO has with this team may not be an ideal approach to everyone, but when planning an attack (plan), you have to first consider the state of the team and the roster at the time. To me, this was always going to be a "slow" build, quite different to what we saw with Whaley and some rather inflated contracts. Your preference for how the team should have been built may not necessarily be "wrong", but IMO, didn't quite reflect the state of the team at the time. That, and there's some hindsight involved there. I think most people were ok with Jones in the 2nd at the time, based on his track record (all-time NCAA reception record, single season NCAA recption record). Ju-ju may have been a better prospect (I didn't know enough about him or Jones at the time to have an honest opinion), and he may have had a better career than Jones so far, but there's variables to consider there that play into that hindsight. If Jones had Big Ben and Ju-ju had Tyrod, perhaps hindsight would give a different view. Same with Mahomes as Bills QB. Granted, its probably easier to say that Mahomes would have ended up being pretty good in Buffalo, but he wouldn't have had Hunt, Hill, Kelce as his weapons, no Reed as HC, so his performance last season as Bills QB would have paled in comparison to what he did in KC. I will say that I can appreciate your thought process, regardless of whether I agree or not. I like details behind reason, and not just a generic "here's what I think, and I'm right" post. But like I said, your posts seem to contain a good amount of hindsight and future telling. One thing is true, though: we all want this plan to work out. Also, I think you're selling Hughes short. He was a premiere pass rusher last season, just didn't collect the sacks as much. As far as pass rush productivity goes, I believe he was #1 or 2 in the league last year, and I believe Oliver will help Hughes collect more sacks as a penetrating and disruptive 3 tech, provided there's not a significant drop in Hughes' play. Murphy is finally healthy entering the season, so perhaps he'll play a bit better this year as well. Next year, I fully expect the Bills to address O-line and WR early and often in the draft. Free agency, for the most part, seems to be about improving while adding insurance to the roster, in the event that the draft chips don't fall ideally for the Bills. We shall see. Thanks for the great and rational back-n-forth!!! I always lay out my thinking and "would have's" clearly here. Everyone knows, unmistakably, that I don't think that Oliver is going to meet expectations and that I think that Singletary has little more potential than other as a role-playing receiving back. If we're lucky we'll at a "Darren Sproles." But if that comes to pass I'll have everyone telling me that "oh sure, you knew" kinda thing when I've said it all along. It's somewhat comical. As to their strategy, all we can do is wait as you say so we'll see. I do think that we'll get a very clear picture this season however, more than good enough to predict the future as such. And frankly, circumstances aside, three seasons is a typical evaluation period for newbie GMs and coaches. Why should it be any different here. We all know that Beane & McD's futures hang on Allen tho. As to Jones, yes, most people were OK with Jones in the 2nd. That's my point. I provided all the info for people to see why it wasn't a good pick, just like I did with Spiller, Watkins, and a big number of other players over the years, and it was scoffed at and ignored. No worries, didn't bother me, just sayin'. You get from what you analyze from what you put in. I typically put in a few dozen hours of detailed analysis on our key (1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks), more than professsional draft analysts do. I mean who can spend that kind of time on a few hundred players, it would take years. I'll also digress on Hughes, but to start, he predates McBeane, so he doesn't factor in to the "strategy," whatever it is other than the fact that he's here. I don't know how you're measuring 1st or 2nd in the league last season, but he's averaged 5.5 sacks/season over his last five seasons, so not sure that's at the top. He's also averaged 10 TFLs over the past four seasons, same there. Last season he ranked in a 10-way tie for TFLs and he ranked in an 11-way tie for 38th in the league in sacks. I'm not sure that qualifies as #1 or 2. PFF has him rated as "Good", which is one spot above "above-average" and has only "high-quality" and "elite" above him. So yeah, he's good, but A, he's not McBeane's acquisition, and he's not great. 22 players like him at his level and we're set tho, so there's that. And LOL, nothing personal, but you say Murphy will finally be healthy, he's had injury issues throughout his career. So that may be temporary, hence many of my comments, eh. To the greater point, the risk that they assumed played out as such. As to addressing the OL and WRs next year, I'm struggling to understand why in three seasons they've drafted a mere one WR, one that hasn't anted up to his draft status, in the first 5 rounds, almost the same for OL-men given a talent-bereft OL. n Next year's gonna be too late. They should have had the OL around Allen now, he needs it now. I've harped on that over the past few months. Allen's issues are going to require "extra time" in the pocket, figure an extra second beyond what the best OLs provide. He has to work on those fundamentals, which on game days in the NFL really isn't the time to do that, but that's what he's going to have to do. I'm not sure that the team has set him up to succeed to whatever extent he will succeed. That's my biggest issue with their approach. Great, they signed the riskiest QB in last year's draft. Water under the dam. But now do everything that you can to try to help him succeed. But what do they do? Defense in round 1. Great, Ford in round 2. But a small-school RB that simply doens't have the speed to compete in the NFL in round 3, and also in round 3 another injury-prone player, a TE, that has never caught a TD before. Sure, they say "IF" he hadn't been injured he'd have been much better in college. No doubt to some extent, but then why couldn't he score a single TD in 18 games and on 39 receptions when he did play. Something's not lining up there, eh. Either way, yet another risky move that I don't think was in Allen's best interests. They clearly could have done better. Oliver, no matter what he does, won't help Allen any. I simply don't see them protecting their QB investment anywhere close to the extent that they should be. Allen's going to need extra help. They didn't do that. Waiting until next year to address those things will be too late. Even if they hit, it's going to take a half-season, as it always does, and at least the team seems to understand that by their comments on the development of the OL, to gel and develop the necessary chemistry on the OL. That's why I'm not as big on the Morse acquisition as others are. I like Morse, think he's good, but the chemistry diminishes if he's out, which will likely be the case. The fact that he's already hurt and there hasn't even been anything even resembling contact should be highly concerning. Edited June 17, 2019 by Ronin
thebandit27 Posted June 17, 2019 Posted June 17, 2019 51 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said: Yup. I did the analysis and many of the throws to the flats were not that open (in the 0:27 play Shady is pretty clearly being covered). Couple of situational things too (whos gonna hit a guy in the flat on 3 and 20 or throw to the RB in the middle of the field with < 1 min). Generally I agree his hero ball needs to stop and that should be correctable for such a raw prospect (the PFF guys contend if he hasnt learned now he never well, but I'm not so sure). Take away hero ball and have his receivers help not hinder him would go a long way. Also, a timestamp analysis is good, but leaving out critical context is kind of underwhelming. For example, just take a look at how many of the negative plays were followed by first-down-making plays generated by Allen on the very next play (as well as on the very same set of downs). Does that excuse poor decision-making? No. Does it mean he doesn't need to get better? No. Does it mean that he has shown the ability to make plays that routinely overcome the ones he misses. Yes. Will that alone make him a franchise QB? Of course not.
RoyBatty is alive Posted June 17, 2019 Posted June 17, 2019 16 hours ago, K-9 said: Josh is a risk taker, pure and simple. He doesn’t give up on plays, sometimes to his detriment. Whereas Dak goes to his checkdowns much more quickly. I’m confident that Allen will start taking more of what the defense is giving him as we saw post injury last season. And when that happens with regularity, watch out. Because he has the arm to take what he wants when defenses adjust to the fact he’s taking what they’re giving him. The opposite of Tyrod Taylor Josh Allen iS Ryan Fitzpatrick but with an arm 3x stronger.
thebandit27 Posted June 17, 2019 Posted June 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Ronin said: This is what you're defending, as what, "not bad," "good," ... you tell me: 18 for 36 (50.0%) for 206 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 1 Lost Fumble, 3 sacks for -14 in a loss to a team with the 25th ranked defense. You cannot possibly be that bad at reading. I'm going to give you another chance to read the post you quoted and change your response to it...because this one is brutal.
K-9 Posted June 17, 2019 Posted June 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said: The opposite of Tyrod Taylor Josh Allen iS Ryan Fitzpatrick but with an arm 3x stronger. And a release 10x quicker, too. Which is such a critical aspect on so many throws, especially those long outs from the far hash. I shudder to think of Fitz triple hitching on some of those. Triple hitching! It was painful to watch.
HappyDays Posted June 17, 2019 Posted June 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, Ronin said: Thanks for the great and rational back-n-forth!!! I always lay out my thinking and "would have's" clearly here. Everyone knows, unmistakably, that I don't think that Oliver is going to meet expectations and that I think that Singletary has little more potential than other as a role-playing receiving back. If we're lucky we'll at a "Darren Sproles." But if that comes to pass I'll have everyone telling me that "oh sure, you knew" kinda thing when I've said it all along. It's somewhat comical. As to their strategy, all we can do is wait as you say so we'll see. I do think that we'll get a very clear picture this season however, more than good enough to predict the future as such. And frankly, circumstances aside, three seasons is a typical evaluation period for newbie GMs and coaches. Why should it be any different here. We all know that Beane & McD's futures hang on Allen tho. As to Jones, yes, most people were OK with Jones in the 2nd. That's my point. I provided all the info for people to see why it wasn't a good pick, just like I did with Spiller, Watkins, and a big number of other players over the years, and it was scoffed at and ignored. No worries, didn't bother me, just sayin'. You get from what you analyze from what you put in. I typically put in a few dozen hours of detailed analysis on our key (1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks), more than professsional draft analysts do. I mean who can spend that kind of time on a few hundred players, it would take years. I'll also digress on Hughes, but to start, he predates McBeane, so he doesn't factor in to the "strategy," whatever it is other than the fact that he's here. I don't know how you're measuring 1st or 2nd in the league last season, but he's averaged 5.5 sacks/season over his last five seasons, so not sure that's at the top. He's also averaged 10 TFLs over the past four seasons, same there. Last season he ranked in a 10-way tie for TFLs and he ranked in an 11-way tie for 38th in the league in sacks. I'm not sure that qualifies as #1 or 2. PFF has him rated as "Good", which is one spot above "above-average" and has only "high-quality" and "elite" above him. So yeah, he's good, but A, he's not McBeane's acquisition, and he's not great. 22 players like him at his level and we're set tho, so there's that. And LOL, nothing personal, but you say Murphy will finally be healthy, he's had injury issues throughout his career. So that may be temporary, hence many of my comments, eh. To the greater point, the risk that they assumed played out as such. As to addressing the OL and WRs next year, I'm struggling to understand why in three seasons they've drafted a mere one WR, one that hasn't anted up to his draft status, in the first 5 rounds, almost the same for OL-men given a talent-bereft OL. n Next year's gonna be too late. They should have had the OL around Allen now, he needs it now. I've harped on that over the past few months. Allen's issues are going to require "extra time" in the pocket, figure an extra second beyond what the best OLs provide. He has to work on those fundamentals, which on game days in the NFL really isn't the time to do that, but that's what he's going to have to do. I'm not sure that the team has set him up to succeed to whatever extent he will succeed. That's my biggest issue with their approach. Great, they signed the riskiest QB in last year's draft. Water under the dam. But now do everything that you can to try to help him succeed. But what do they do? Defense in round 1. Great, Ford in round 2. But a small-school RB that simply doens't have the speed to compete in the NFL in round 3, and also in round 3 another injury-prone player, a TE, that has never caught a TD before. Sure, they say "IF" he hadn't been injured he'd have been much better in college. No doubt to some extent, but then why couldn't he score a single TD in 18 games and on 39 receptions when he did play. Something's not lining up there, eh. Either way, yet another risky move that I don't think was in Allen's best interests. They clearly could have done better. Oliver, no matter what he does, won't help Allen any. I simply don't see them protecting their QB investment anywhere close to the extent that they should be. Allen's going to need extra help. They didn't do that. Waiting until next year to address those things will be too late. Even if they hit, it's going to take a half-season, as it always does, and at least the team seems to understand that by their comments on the development of the OL, to gel and develop the necessary chemistry on the OL. That's why I'm not as big on the Morse acquisition as others are. I like Morse, think he's good, but the chemistry diminishes if he's out, which will likely be the case. The fact that he's already hurt and there hasn't even been anything even resembling contact should be highly concerning. So did the TaskersGhost account get banned, or did you just go back to an old account name for fun? How many accounts do you have here?
RoyBatty is alive Posted June 17, 2019 Posted June 17, 2019 1 minute ago, K-9 said: And a release 10x quicker, too. Which is such a critical aspect on so many throws, especially those long outs from the far hash. I shudder to think of Fitz triple hitching on some of those. Triple hitching! It was painful to watch. yeah, i lust looked up Ryans stats, worse than i thought, he didnt average over 60% completion on average while he was here. I think his arm got tired throuigh the year, that is why he would start out hot but and by game 5-6 really start throwing up some lame ducks.
Ronin Posted June 17, 2019 Posted June 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, K-9 said: And a release 10x quicker, too. Which is such a critical aspect on so many throws, especially those long outs from the far hash. I shudder to think of Fitz triple hitching on some of those. Triple hitching! It was painful to watch. Yes, quicker release, but again, amidst the other issues, so what. All these strengths simply didn't do much for Allen last year as he finished the season as among the bottom ranked passers. All we can do is try to explain it. Most here blame it on anyone but Allen. Again, that's not wise, but hey, everyone's entitled to an opinion regardless of how unsubstantiated and predicated upon false narratives it is. So we have a QB that can heave the ball out of the stadium, one with a quick release, but one that can't seem to find his way out of a wet paper bag in the short game, particularly in the Red Zone where was not merely poor but absymal when he didn't run it himself. Which one of those two characteristics do you think will trump the other in the long haul?
RoyBatty is alive Posted June 17, 2019 Posted June 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ronin said: ... and w/o Taylor's short-game ability, aka Red Zone ability. Everyone cites Allen's big arm, but what, exactly, did that do for us last season? Specifically? Whatever he did in the deep-game, came at the expense of the short-medium game, which is where any QB will make or break their career. Why more people don't understand that is beyond me. No, not really. If as you say, he overcomes all of those bad plays with good ones, how come the loss? We can go thru the game log if you like to disprove that. Happy to in fact. No, I changed names, didn't like that one. I have one, never been any different. Contrary to the opinions of others I don't post anywhere else. That OK with you? Gonna lose sleep over it? What? Feel free to put me on ignore. No, really, feel free to put me on ignore. The choice is yours, but it is a choice. Josh Allen had red zone ability bu t it was mostly with his legs but he did get TDs And his big arm do make plays, two plays off the top of my head, notably the play he got hurt in Houston and the long 75 yr bomb to Foster, And that pre-season TD at Carolina, where he threaded the needle, under 5 NFL QBs would even dare that throw.
.thumb.png.1b7fb4086290c3afc001a7900b31fab0.png)
Recommended Posts