Josh Allen: Film Review From a Cynical Man

[downunderbill]

10 hours ago, Ga boy said:

Bravo on seeing things without rose tinted glasses.  I want Josh to be the answer, but the flaws can't be ignored.  I don't understand why we didn't draft an accurate QB in rounds 4-7.  Guess what:  Pats did.  Remember, this is same group who thought Peterman could.

 

Yes, the Pats scored Tom Brady in the sixth so why can't the Bills? It's that simple.

[MacGyver]

He needs to win, then I'll take this latest QB seriously. Until then, to me, he's a 50% passer.

 

I'm at the point in my Bills fandom career where I don't want to hear all the off season upbeat BS.

 

Mid season, I don't want to hear excuses on why something isn't working.

 

I am only going to accept that the franchise has truly changed when I see important playoff implicating wins.

 

Allen and the franchise have a lot to prove to a lot of fans.

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

7 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

I won't disagree with most of that.  But I do disagree with the strategy used.  

 

I don't agree with drafting, at major draft pick expense and a slew of picks that could have rebuilt the OL last year so that 'we'd have some existing chemistry this year, for the riskiest and small school QB in the draft.  

 

We'll see, if their strategy works out we're all set.  If not, as I've said, McD and Beane will be gone and we'll be hoping that Pegula "finally" hires a competent coach and GM, ... again.  Given his/their history with the Bills and Sabres to date, I'm not sure I'd bet a whole lot on that happening, as we enter the criticial option and stadium issue years where we'll need all the help we can get.  

 

Of their risky small school picks Jones isn't long for the team.  Allen's already facing an uphill battle.  I wouldn't bet a plug nickel that Singletary will be anything but a role-playing receiving back.  As to Oliver, he may be OK, but I fully expect that he's going to underachieve.  He couldn't handle double-teams in college, so he clearly wont' handle them in the NFL.  Man-to-man he was inconsistent, so not seeing why that should improve here, in the NFL either.  At this point if he turns into an average DT I'd say we'll be fortunate.  

 

Anyway, nothing I or we can do about it but sit back and watch.  I simply don't see any methodolgy to their approach.  Last year it was trade up for Allen and rely upon a QB that everyone but McD knew wasn't going anywhere in this league.  That alone raises questions.  

 

As to free agency, what are the big hurrahs?  What, Lotulolei, Brown, Morse, Benjamin (at the time), Murphy, Beasley?  Not impressed.  Apart from all but one, the biggest underachieving one, being injury risks, none are much beyond marginally above-average as starters.  

 

Again, I would have stocked the WR and OL last year with our first five picks, also taken Edmunds at 12th.  I would have waited until this year to draft a QB.  I'd be a lot more comfortable with Lock.  

 

 

 

You speak as if you have looked into the future and you're awaiting an eventual tear down. Pegulas suck, McBeane sucks, Allen sucks, Oliver sucks (what are you even talking about with double teams? He beat plenty of them...), Zay sucks (2nd round pick btw, not a 1st), Beasley...Brown meh, Drew Lock is a stud! Should have just reached for need at O-line and WR regardless of who's on the board...

 

Why does there have to be a "big hurrah" every year in free agency? The Bills just needed to get better, which I believe they have done. Sure, the Star deal was a bit of a head scratcher, but IMO he was brought in for his knowledge of the defense and because he fits the culture being built by McDermott. And he fit a need in this defense and actually had a pretty good year IMO. 

 

I get the idea that a lot of people have already come to the opposite conclusion as you, and have proclaimed all FA signings and draft picks as wins, and that Allen is God, but you seem to be at fault in the same manner, just in a pessimistic narrative instead of optimistic. A more accurate and true (not assumptions) depiction of this team wouldn't sound as negative as what you've provided. You used the Jets game to try and prove a point about Allen, yet your assessment of what you saw was flawed and biased going in, and it showed clearly in your dissection. 

 

Truth is, no one knows how this all plays out. You seem to think the Bills are doing all the wrong things and that it WILL NOT work out. On the other hand, there's a much larger contingency of people that seem to think the opposite and are at least excited to wait and see if things do come to fruition, and I'm not talking about the typical kool aide drinkers. I'm talking about people that use facts and truth to try and form an honest opinion. This staff has made some mistakes, and some moves that may or may not end up being mistakes, but raise an eyebrow at the time (trading away the Mahomes pick, for example). But a lot of these questions take years to answer. I'm content enough, based on how this team is being operated and forming into shape, to let it all play out. To each his own, I guess.

[BigPappy]

14 hours ago, KzooMike said:

I don't think I'm alone in feeling the way I do. I think many of you feel the same way. It's hard to trust this team. It's hard to trust the QB position. 20 years of psychological warfare, unmet expectations, disappointment. This is one of the most emotionally invested fan bases in the NFL. We have been burned so repetitively we have become split between two groups of people. Ones that can let go of the past be optimistic and move forward, then another group that is just as passionate and loyal but defends themselves emotionally by lowering expectations. I'm part of the latter but always fighting myself to push closer towards the former.

 

I saw things in Allen's statistical profile last year that concerned me a great deal. How often he was running. Accuracy issues. Topics discussed many times on this forum as indicators to be cautious. I spent a lot time watching film on Josh this weekend. From the eyes of an emotionally defeated, lowered expectation, pessimist, this is what I saw. 

 

A kid in the shape of a giant outrunning defenders not because he couldn't read progressions or step up in the pocket, but because he was either forced to roll out or more often because the defensive line completely over pursued. He took advantage of mistakes defenses made and put DC's on notice this year. If you want to play pin the ears back and undisciplined in your pass rush he will make you pay.

 

I saw this man child hit the deep middle 20 yard throw like no QB we have had since Bledsoe (who for all his shortcomings delivered that as well as anybody). I saw him often not stepping up in the pocket and delivering the ball awkwardly, but it was not because he was afraid it was because the DL was under his chin. Shockingly, he still delivered ropes all over the field from this position. 

 

I saw a player that can make every conceivable throw a QB can make in this league and many the majority of QB's could not. A player that when in cadence and rhythm was decisive and accurate. Somebody fully capable of turning absolutely nothing into not only positive yardage but sometimes a lot more. Oh by the way,  a natural leader that inspired his teammates.

 

You would have to have beaten Bills syndrome to the fullest level to not see the same things. Allen is a special player. He carried this offense as rookie void of any talent around him on his back last year. This year he has some weapons. So why not Buffalo, lets do this one more time. I'm on board and will put the past behind me. I think we make the playoffs this season. Then I think we challenge for what we really want in the years to come.  

 

Speaking as someone who was heavily invested emotionally with this team, take each win or loss for what they are. A game. I was to the point that their losing effected my family life with my kids and that wasn't good. I say to anyone that is at or near that point, take a step back and take a breath; remember it's just a game. Enjoy the wins....and if they lose they lose.  Don't get me wrong. I still love this team, I just no longer let it control me.

Edited June 17, 2019 by BigPappy

[Inigo Montoya]

8 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

I won't disagree with most of that.  But I do disagree with the strategy used.  

 

I don't agree with drafting, at major draft pick expense and a slew of picks that could have rebuilt the OL last year so that 'we'd have some existing chemistry this year, for the riskiest and small school QB in the draft.  

 

We'll see, if their strategy works out we're all set.  If not, as I've said, McD and Beane will be gone and we'll be hoping that Pegula "finally" hires a competent coach and GM, ... again.  Given his/their history with the Bills and Sabres to date, I'm not sure I'd bet a whole lot on that happening, as we enter the criticial option and stadium issue years where we'll need all the help we can get.  

 

Of their risky small school picks Jones isn't long for the team.  Allen's already facing an uphill battle.  I wouldn't bet a plug nickel that Singletary will be anything but a role-playing receiving back.  As to Oliver, he may be OK, but I fully expect that he's going to underachieve.  He couldn't handle double-teams in college, so he clearly wont' handle them in the NFL.  Man-to-man he was inconsistent, so not seeing why that should improve here, in the NFL either.  At this point if he turns into an average DT I'd say we'll be fortunate.  

 

Anyway, nothing I or we can do about it but sit back and watch.  I simply don't see any methodolgy to their approach.  Last year it was trade up for Allen and rely upon a QB that everyone but McD knew wasn't going anywhere in this league.  That alone raises questions.  

 

As to free agency, what are the big hurrahs?  What, Lotulolei, Brown, Morse, Benjamin (at the time), Murphy, Beasley?  Not impressed.  Apart from all but one, the biggest underachieving one, being injury risks, none are much beyond marginally above-average as starters.  

 

Again, I would have stocked the WR and OL last year with our first five picks, also taken Edmunds at 12th.  I would have waited until this year to draft a QB.  I'd be a lot more comfortable with Lock.  

 

 

 

Wow...

 

You should apply for a position as someone's ex-wife

[Saxum]

15 hours ago, KzooMike said:

I don't think I'm alone in feeling the way I do.

 

It is hard to trust you, your opinion that is. 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

9 hours ago, Drunken Pygmy Goat said:

The third was week 17. Aside from a pick 6 into double coverage, it was a very good game from Josh. 5 total TDs, 3 passing, a real nice scramble for a TD blowout win. It was kind of a culmination of the year one progression we witnessed from Josh post injury.

 

 

For me Allen's response to this bad play provided me with more reason to be optimistic then any one of his spectacular plays.  We knew the kid had freakish arm talent and we quickly learned (vikings game) that he had freakish athletic talent.  These are two things you can't teach and our guy had them which is a good thing. 

 

But mental toughness is also hard to learn and Allen throwing a pick six at the end of the half to allow Miami to tie up a game they were trailing 14 - 0 had all the earmarks of a disaster in the making.  How many of you thought that coming out of the locker room we would go 3 & out or even worse Allen would throw another pick and the Dolphins would win the game?  I know I was worried that the game was on that trajectory.  Instead Allen comes out of the locker room takes the team on a 75 yard TD drive in which he makes 2 great throws (one for a TD) and had a huge run. 

 

These are the "little" that you want to see in your QB.  And this is one of the reasons I'm optimistic for next season. 

[CincyBillsFan]

8 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

We're not talking about Darnold.  Honestly ... 

 

But OK then, Darnold sucked, but Allen sucked twice as bad. 

 

 

Seriously, you're saying Allen was twice as bad as Darnold in this game?  Twice as BAD!  As others have noted that game was lost by the special teams and a defense that couldn't hold a 4th quarter lead against a rookie QB at home.  

 

And for the record, this game made me think that Darnold is going to be a damn good QB. 

[Seasons1992]

I believe that was Josh Allen's rookie season, right?

 

As it is also true with the entire season in terms of wins and losses........I'd rather start poorly and finish strong, than start hot and totally bail out late. (Read: St. Louis Blues vs. Buffalo Sabres)

 

Let him get better as the career goes on. He struggled in his ROOKIE season; whoop-de-FRIGGIN-do. Give it a minute, peeps.

 

 

[eball]

I appreciate the intent and effort of the OP but unfortunately threads like this merely devolve into arguments and insults by people who feel the need to "be right."

 

We'll find out whether Josh Allen is the QB we all want him to be soon enough.  Some fans are optimistic, some are not.

[Protocal69]

4 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

Seriously, you're saying Allen was twice as bad as Darnold in this game?  Twice as BAD!  As others have noted that game was lost by the special teams and a defense that couldn't hold a 4th quarter lead against a rookie QB at home.  

 

And for the record, this game made me think that Darnold is going to be a damn good QB. 

It did the same for me regarding Darnold. He sucked in the game as a whole but he showed me a lot in the 4th with 3 dime passes. It made me go watch the rest of his tape to see that he has a future as long as the Jets don’t screw it up

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

15 hours ago, JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS said:

that didn't take long lol

 

 

.....should be a couple of others along shortly......TBD's "Three Headed Monster".................

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

5 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

Peyton Manning  Rookie Year

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD	AV
1998	22	IND	QB	18	16	16	3-13-0	326	575	56.7	3739	26	4.5	28	4.9	78	6.5	5.2	11.5	233.7	71.2		22	109	6.08	4.84	3.7	1	1	11

 

Completion percentage less than 60%.  Not accurate.

3-13 record.  Loser.

Only one 4th quarter comeback and one game winning drive.  Not clutch.

26 touchdowns to 28 INT.  Interception machine.

 

Peyton Manning = Bust

 

My point is to have everyone take a breath and give Allen a chance to learn the game.   I'm so glad someone didn't decide that I was a bust at my job my first year out of school.  There is no substitute for experience.  Why don't we give the kid an honest chance to gain some and then see where he stands.

 

 

Every player that ever played is exactly the same forever, and if they play the Jets that first year you can literally see the mistakes they will always make if you watch the game in slow motion frame by painful frame. You know that there were no broken plays, no misreads, no missed blocks or  no receivers running the wrong route and the play call is telegraphed. 

 

In fact, look at rg3.  Had a very good first year and was exactly the same QB with the same results leading to multiple playoff wins, 2 SB championships and all his wildest dreams came true. 

 

As for Peyton Manning, you're obviously making things up because of what I just said. 

[CincyBillsFan]

It is odd to see the negativism rising up in response to an excellent post by KZoomike. 

 

Most Allen supporters are fully aware of the kids shortcomings and what he needs to work on.  We are also aware that the chances he ends up a bust are better then the odds he ends up our franchise QB.  But when looking at an NFL QB you have to apply Baseball logic.  That is a lifetime batting average of 300 likely gets you in the HOF even though you're only getting a hit 30% of the time.  A pessimist would say that sucks!  The same applies to the NFL where the odds of drafting a great QB are low.  So when a kid shows signs of possibly being THAT GUY, I choose optimism. The idea that being optimistic about Allen's future with the Bills is the same as viewing Allen through rose colored glasses is just plain wrong.  

 

Down here in Cincinnati When friends ask me about the Bills Super Bowl losses I always tell them that I would rather go four times in a row and lose every one of them then never to have gone.  For four magical years we had something special and the joy I got from reaching four straight Super Bowls easily overwhelmed the bitterness of the four straight losses.  That's how I'll view Allen.  He's shown me enough to justify my optimism and even if he never lives up to expectations I'll have enjoyed the time of optimism.

 

The alternative is to walk around with a permanent rain cloud over your head. 

[Aireskoi]

19 minutes ago, eball said:

I appreciate the intent and effort of the OP but unfortunately threads like this merely devolve into arguments and insults by people who feel the need to "be right."

 

We'll find out whether Josh Allen is the QB we all want him to be soon enough.  Some fans are optimistic, some are not.

 

I'm extremely optimistic about Allen, so I need the balance from the more doubtful few.

 

We have about 6 weeks of this punching back and forth to read before anything new happens.

 

Remember it's a marathon guys, don't go too hard too soon or you'll get winded.

 

 

 

<watching while eating popcorn with great delight pic>

 

[colin]

didn't he have like 75 yards of big passes on like 3 plays lost due to easy pass drops and penalties in that jests game?  also, didn't our special teams basically lose the game for us?

 

allen's career is starting like elway's or Favre's did, and that's who he is, FavrElway, a future champion and hall of famer!

[Cornette's Commentary]

6 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

As unfortunate as it is, many posters take that same level of invested emotional overreaction to the forums. 

 

Please don't take this personally, but I've never understood anyone that would let the performance of the team, no matter how poor, affect their personal lives or interactions with others, particularly family members.  I've read a number of poeple post the same thing tho.  I applaud you for recognizing that and for stepping back in life.  Sports should be for a positive emotional experience.  If that doesn't occur, I simply wait until it does.  I don't go to games anymore and until further notice.  I cancelled my seasons years ago accompanied with a letter that told the team that when they got serious about building a winner I'd start buying tickets again. Hasn't happened as of yet and I don't believe anything they tell me anymore.  Every year we're on the cusp of a major turnaround, no different this year.  

 

Some people let gamedays entirely ruin their Sundays, for the life of me I cannot even remotely fathom that other than being irritated that they wasted four hours of their day, longer if they went to the game, and perhaps a some money, on something that aggravates them. 

 

But again, that same emotional lack of control shows up here to disallow any ratioinal discussion of the team, coaches, methodologies, etc.  

 

Case in point, some people react to my posts as others would to an armed robbery of their home.  LOL 

[Alphadawg7]

16 hours ago, SoTier said:

If will, drive, and leadership were all it took to become a great NFL QB, then Allen would undoubtedly become one.  Unfortunately, that's enough.  He has to develop the physical skills and learn to make good decisions under pressure in order to become a good enough QB to consistently lead his team to wins.   It's a tall order for Allen because he came into the NFL so raw and unprepared, and bnumerous first roundQB prospects who had excellent physical skills and were much more "NFL ready" than he was have failed that same test. 

 

At this point, nobody really knows just how good he can be, but he probably has to show significant improvement in order to have a better career than guys like Tannehill or Bortles.

 

The “NFL ready” thing media arm chair draft pundits use is over exaggerated IMO.  They are almost never right about that, an no QB is NFL ready coming into the league.  It’s just that NFL QB is the most complicated and difficult position to learn and play well at in all of professional sports, so no matter what you did in college, you’re not ready and will have a lot to learn and get down before you can put it together on the field.

 

Case in point:  The most “pro ready” guy was the worst of the first 5 QBs chosen (Rosen) and the least ready QBs in Allen and Lamar both carried their offenses, one of which was into the playoffs and Allen was easily the 2nd best rookie behind only Baker.  

[thebandit27]

13 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

 

 

I'm also not seeing the same things as you did in the game videos nearly to the same scale.  I see Allen with plenty of time quite often, suggesting that our OL probably wasn't as bad as everyone seems to want it to be in defense of Allen, while utterly failing to see numerous wide-open receivers, very often with those receivers waving furiously only to let their arms flop frustratingly back down as Allen didn't see them, something that all average QBs do on a routine basis.  

 

  

 

 

 

Then you don't know what you're watching:

 

 

Good thing Allen can get himself out of those situations:

 

 

Also, this is at least the 5th time you've alluded to WRs flailing their arms in frustration.  I let it go the first 4 times, now, on #5, I'll ask you to show me a few examples, since it happened so regularly.

[Chandler#81]

1 hour ago, Ronin said:

 

If you ask me,

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Ronin said:

Again, call me nuts.  

 

 

 

BLAH

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BLAH

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BLAH

 

NOBODY asked you. You’re incredibly boring and bring nothing to football conversations.

 

Now go outside and play.

 

1 hour ago, Ronin said: