Josh Allen: Film Review From a Cynical Man

[Buffalo Boy]

Watching a QB grow is a journey.

Is he a finished product? No

Is he perfect at everything? Name me a QB who was excellent at every aspect of the QB game.

The kid has more potential than anyone we’ve had since Kelly. For some, that’s still not enough before his sophomore season.

Some of you are just Miserable. A leopard can’t change his spots.

 

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

First, let me say that I liked the pick, and based on what we've seen so far, I have a good feeling about Allen developing into a long term starter in the NFL.

 

But...I do believe he has a lot of work to do in order to be considered a true "franchise QB". His decision making at times was poor and throws were way late (common for a rookie, sometimes he made up for it with a strong arm), his accuracy at times was poor, footwork at times was poor (leading to inaccurate throws), touch needed work, etc. I did notice improvement in those areas later in the season, but still needs work and to show consistency in those areas.

 

And while the line had its problems, IMO pass blocking was actually average. However, there were many 2nd/3rd and longs as a result of poor run blocking, making things that much more difficult on the rookie. The WR/TE positions weren't exactly loaded either...falling back on the "poor O-line, poor WRs" line shouldn't be used as a way to vindicate poor play from Josh, but it should at least factor in to an assessment of him in some way. Those were true variables in his play, but I think many fans are putting too much emphasis on that.

 

I get why optimism seems to be through the roof about Allen for many fans. There's a lot to like about him. His personality seems humbled yet fitting for a town like Buffalo, his demeanor on the field screams "winner" (very "Brady-esque"), and of course, he has a cannon, pretty important when throwing in windy New Era. But his stock with fans really elevated in 3 seperate games IMO.

 

First was the Vikings game. The Bills covered outright the largest spread in years, partly due to play from Allen. His fake screen TD pass to Croom, the Superman TD dive at the pylon after a scramble, and (most of all) hurdling Anthony Barr to gain a first down all catapulted Allen into a fan favorite position, even for many of the detractors. He is the young, rookie QB after all; we want to have reasons for optimism and excitement. Those last two plays elevated Josh to a bit of a superhero status among Bills fans, with plenty of hurdle memes going around...

 

The second was the Jaguars game. It was his first game back from injury IIRC, just in time to stick it to Ramsey. Aside from an all around decent performance, he made a great throw from the pocket, with two defenders sandwiching him, on a deep TD pass to Foster. It was the kind of play that we envisioned from him when he was drafted. And there were a couple more nice runs from him, one went for like 50 yards, and another was a TD that included a nasty stiff arm to a LB.

 

The third was week 17. Aside from a pick 6 into double coverage, it was a very good game from Josh. 5 total TDs, 3 passing, a real nice scramble for a TD blowout win. It was kind of a culmination of the year one progression we witnessed from Josh post injury.

 

There were also several other flashes as well. There was a great TD pass to Zay in the back of the endzone at Miami, and one of his best throws I thought came on the play he was injured at Houston.

 

Ending the season on such a high note, combined with reasons for optimism and likeability, has rolled itself into perhaps too much kool aide drinking. Maybe some fans are getting a bit ahead of themselves when it comes to Josh Allen. He has a long way to go, yet a lot of people speak as if they have seen all that they needed to see in order to "know". Truth is, we haven't...far from it actually. Its a lot of hype IMO, much of which he hasn't lived up to yet, but most would agree that, based on what we've seen and know, he has the potential to do so.

 

Who am I to tell people what to think? We're pretty starved as Bills fans for something like this. A young, exciting QB is exactly what we've lacked for 20 years, and now we have one that just might be something special. We've been built up at times in the past, only to be let down, but now, we have this shiny new toy, with a coaching staff and front office that appears, at the very least, to be competent and calculated. The extreme Allen praise and predictions may be premature, but we should all have at least some level of encouragement about how this will turn out. Things are looking up, now we need to see things grow from here. 

[Ronin]

5 hours ago, KzooMike said:

I spent a lot time watching film on Josh this weekend. From the eyes of an emotionally defeated, lowered expectation, pessimist, this is what I saw. 

 

OK, let's use the Week 14 Jets game.  

 

 

0:15:  If Allen does what average QBs do, he sees Shady at the release and hits him for a decent gain.  Instead he immediately defaults to looking downfield.  I count a good 4 seconds before he even has to think about scrambling, which is a lifetime in the pocket. 

 

0:27:  If he's thinking quickly, which he isn't, he has an opportunity hit McKenzie on the short out on 2nd-and-10 setting up a 3rd-and-short possibly even a 1st-down.  Yes, he runs for the 1st, but again, at the expense of the passing game and risk of injury.  

 

0:42:  He misses Clay in the right flat and throws an ill-advised ball to Shady who's 7 yards behind the LoS.  

 

1:33:  Instead of relying on a seemingly good pocket Allen takes off running prematurely and fumbles the ball away.  The TO resulted in a Jets FG.  

 

2:35:  Misses Ivory in the right flat and runs instead. 

 

2:57:  On 1st-and-25 from our own 11 instead of throwing the ball away he throws a highly ill-advised pass that results in an INT.  

 

3:28:  He's got a wide-open man short-right on 2nd-and-10, whereby if he hits him we likely have a 1st-down, or close.  Instead he throws a horribly thrown (read highly inaccurate) all into multiple coverage nearly ending with an INT.  Again, I count 3+ seconds easily with no particular pressure.  

 

3:48:  Thompson makes a beautiful break to the outside on the left but Allen's inaccurate throw is way too far outside.  

 

4:05:  I suppose this is one of those "drops" that everyone talks about, but Allen throws completely behind Jones who actually made a very nice break.  Very difficult to catch ball, the announcer says "through his hands" which is ridiculous.  And you know me, hardly a Jones apologist.  Allen had plenty of time and it was about a 13-yard throw.  

 

7:50:  A dangerous and risky throw resulting in only a gain of 3.  

 

4:57:  Allen has all kinds of time but underthrows Ivory short.  At his feet.  

 

5:14:  Instead of dumping off to Ivory or throwing the ball away as he had time to do, at Ivory's feet e.g., he takes a sack.  Again, some pressure but only after 3 seconds or so.  

 

5:35:  Pressure right from the start, but instead of simply throwing the ball away once he's outside the tackle box he heaves it downfield where only a Jet defender is.  He threw a lot of picks like that.  

 

6:06:  With plenty of time on a rollout, Allen ignores a wide-open Thomas and throws into triple coverage.  Granted, complete, but risky contrasted with the easy play on 1st-and-10.  

 

6:26:  Allen, again, with plenty of time, doesn't see (or ignores) Murphy on the left and instead throws to the more heavily covered Jones.  

 

6:37:  Instead of throwing to Thomas as he comes out of his break Allen throws further downfield incomplete.  

 

7:37:  Horrible play!  Murphy comes out of the backfield and is wide open for a huge gain if Allen hits him.  Also wide open downfield is Foster.  Instead of taking what the defense gives him, Allen throws into coverage and right to Trumaine Johnson on a horribly (read inaccurate) thrown ball.  

 

Now, there's absolutely no way that those things were all the result of the "D under his chin" or no talent.  An open receiver is an open receiver, it doesn't matter if he's talented or not.  

 

On a side note, Darnold, facing our "highly ranked D," outplayed Allen.  At one point you can hear the announcers talking about how Allen's rating is around 50 and Darnold's around 80.  

 

Also, that was one of Allen's last four games where the narrative is that he improved towards the end of the season.  Another one of those four, the one prior to that last Miami game, was that horrid NE game too.  So again, not really seeing where the narrative on this improvement is real.  

Edited June 17, 2019 by Ronin

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

1 hour ago, Ronin said:

 

Exactly re: Peterman.  But everyone has faith in those same people that kept trying to shove the 5th-round square-peg of Peterman into the round hole.  But remember the sentiment here, largely mirroring the team's, that Peterman was "the most NFL ready QB in the draft" and a steal in the 5th.  

 

Again, my strategy would have been to build the OL and add a WR last season.  Take Edmunds at 12th, where I was suprised he was still there.  Then use pick 22 on OT Wynn, then 53, 56, and 65 on one more OL, a WR and another player.  Then grab Lock (or another QB) this season, also thereby buying them time.   As it now stands, if Allen doesn't really step up his game meaning become an average QB, they're toast.  Is that really what we need right now heading into the option years with the stadium issue at the forefront.  

 

None of that matters now however, all that matters is whether or not their strategy works.  But here's how I see that cliched "Process:"  

 

Free Agency:  Sign a whole bunch of quantity over quality free agents, try to get bargains by focusing on better players with injury histories and hope that they stay healthy.  Don't sign any impact free-agents, why not, I don't know.  

 

Draft:  Don't be original and stick to the preordained scripts of the national draft gurus, except when it comes to players from small schools, where to be sure to pick at least one in on days 1 & 2 every year while reaching at least once or twice (Singletary and Jones) in doing so.  Jones early in round 1 in '17, Allen in round 1 in '18, Oliver and Singletary in rounds 1 & 3 respectively this year.  Hope that their play against inferior competition holds up at the NFL level and hope that your QB issues that were rampant at Wyoming for some reason work their way out at the NFL level.  

 

Again, it is what it is, but I don't see much of a strategy there besides one of a kid-in-a-candy-shop variety and a smarter-by-half one.  If it works out, great, but so far Jones hasn't, Allen's dicey at best, with Oliver and Singletary, who has no particular skillset at the NFL level, pending.  

 

There have been a few "good" free agency signings, but I haven't seen one signing yet that's impressive.  The most expensive, Lotulolei, landed a player that isn't even on the field for 50% of the snaps.  I mean does that make sense, to make your most expensive acquisition a player that isn't even a 3-down player?  It doesn't to me, call me nuts.  

 

 

I'm of the belief that, if you don't find a QB, drafting well and signing top tier FAs (to typically inflated contracts, especially for Buffalo) is moot because many of those players will leave town as soon as their deals are up, because without a true, winning QB, the team will be losing more than winning, and turning over coaching staffs... That's spinning your wheels, and it's exactly what we've seem from the Bills for years. Finding a franchise QB is much more difficult than filling the roster via draft and FA. Having that QB also makes your team more attractive, which can have a positive effect on FA costs. 

 

To me the plan seems pretty clear. The Bills are going to build their core roster via the draft and get younger (with cheaper rookie contracts), fill spots in FA with mainly bargain type deals, hope their QB works out, then fill remaining skill positions to put them over the top (that is when I want and expect the Bills to pursue a big FA, it may be a bit cheaper comparatively speaking). All the while focusing on retaining their best players at the most important positions

[Protocal69]

47 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

OK, let's use the Week 14 Jets game.  

 

 

0:15:  If Allen does what average QBs do, he sees Shady at the release and hits him for a decent gain.  Instead he immediately defaults to looking downfield.  I count a good 4 seconds before he even has to think about scrambling, which is a lifetime in the pocket. 

 

0:27:  If he's thinking quickly, which he isn't, he has an opportunity hit McKenzie on the short out on 2nd-and-10 setting up a 3rd-and-short possibly even a 1st-down.  Yes, he runs for the 1st, but again, at the expense of the passing game and risk of injury.  

 

0:42:  He misses Clay in the right flat and throws an ill-advised ball to Shady who's 7 yards behind the LoS.  

 

1:33:  Instead of relying on a seemingly good pocket Allen takes off running prematurely and fumbles the ball away.  The TO resulted in a Jets FG.  

 

2:35:  Misses Ivory in the right flat and runs instead. 

 

2:57:  On 1st-and-25 from our own 11 instead of throwing the ball away he throws a highly ill-advised pass that results in an INT.  

 

3:28:  He's got a wide-open man short-right on 2nd-and-10, whereby if he hits him we likely have a 1st-down, or close.  Instead he throws a horribly thrown (read highly inaccurate) all into multiple coverage nearly ending with an INT.  Again, I count 3+ seconds easily with no particular pressure.  

 

3:48:  Thompson makes a beautiful break to the outside on the left but Allen's inaccurate throw is way too far outside.  

 

4:05:  I suppose this is one of those "drops" that everyone talks about, but Allen throws completely behind Jones who actually made a very nice break.  Very difficult to catch ball, the announcer says "through his hands" which is ridiculous.  And you know me, hardly a Jones apologist.  Allen had plenty of time and it was about a 13-yard throw.  

 

7:50:  A dangerous and risky throw resulting in only a gain of 3.  

 

4:57:  Allen has all kinds of time but underthrows Ivory short.  At his feet.  

 

5:14:  Instead of dumping off to Ivory or throwing the ball away as he had time to do, at Ivory's feet e.g., he takes a sack.  Again, some pressure but only after 3 seconds or so.  

 

5:35:  Pressure right from the start, but instead of simply throwing the ball away once he's outside the tackle box he heaves it downfield where only a Jet defender is.  He threw a lot of picks like that.  

 

6:06:  With plenty of time on a rollout, Allen ignores a wide-open Thomas and throws into triple coverage.  Granted, complete, but risky contrasted with the easy play on 1st-and-10.  

 

6:26:  Allen, again, with plenty of time, doesn't see (or ignores) Murphy on the left and instead throws to the more heavily covered Jones.  

 

6:37:  Instead of throwing to Thomas as he comes out of his break Allen throws further downfield incomplete.  

 

7:37:  Horrible play!  Murphy comes out of the backfield and is wide open for a huge gain if Allen hits him.  Also wide open downfield is Foster.  Instead of taking what the defense gives him, Allen throws into coverage and right to Trumaine Johnson on a horribly (read inaccurate) thrown ball.  

 

Now, there's absolutely no way that those things were all the result of the "D under his chin" or no talent.  An open receiver is an open receiver, it doesn't matter if he's talented or not.  

 

On a side note, Darnold, facing our "highly ranked D," outplayed Allen.  At one point you can hear the announcers talking about how Allen's rating is around 50 and Darnold's around 80.  

 

Also, that was one of Allen's last four games where the narrative is that he improved towards the end of the season.  Another one of those four, the one prior to that last Miami game, was that horrid NE game too.  So again, not really seeing where the narrative on this improvement is real.  

Darnold played like trash in that game until the 4th and would have loss that game if it were not for the BILLS garbage special teams.  Regarding Allen you can nik -pik any plays you want. The fact is that he needs to learn to check down. I would rather have a QB though that has be taught to learn how to check down, than to learn how to take a chance. 

 

This year he is being taught to read the defense from short to high as opposed to the rest of his career where he read the defense fom high to short so hopefully that does help his overall game. Remember Josh was a raw prospect coming out. As much as Darnold is praised especially toward the end of the season, he laid the same dud performace vs the PATS as Allen. Matter of fact Allen team scored more point albeit in garbage time.

Edited June 17, 2019 by Protocal69

[Rocky Landing]

45 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

OK, let's use the Week 14 Jets game.  

 

 

0:15:  If Allen does what average QBs do, he sees Shady at the release and hits him for a decent gain.  Instead he immediately defaults to looking downfield.  I count a good 4 seconds before he even has to think about scrambling, which is a lifetime in the pocket. 

 

 

I'm certainly not going to go through your entire play-by-play, and I will say that it's quite an impressive amount of time you've put into this. But, you are the king of cherry-picked data, and bending things to fit your narrative! And, this first play that you analyze is a perfect example. This was a fake hand-off to shady. The downfield option was obviously by design. Are you saying he should have immediately thrown to the back that he faked a handoff to? And, 4 seconds? How about less than two? There is literally a counter on the bottom of the image (where you got the 0:15 from), and between the time he turns from the fake handoff to the point that 98 is barreling down on him is less than two seconds, and Shady is in his blind side. Trent "Captain Checkdown" Edwards might have thrown it to Shady in this situation, so I suppose you might be right that an average QB might have done that. 

 It's weird that you put so much time into something that you're not really being honest with.

[Ronin]

41 minutes ago, Drunken Pygmy Goat said:

 

I'm of the belief that, if you don't find a QB, drafting well and signing top tier FAs (to typically inflated contracts, especially for Buffalo) is moot because many of those players will leave town as soon as their deals are up, because without a true, winning QB, the team will be losing more than winning, and turning over coaching staffs... That's spinning your wheels, and it's exactly what we've seem from the Bills for years. Finding a franchise QB is much more difficult than filling the roster via draft and FA. Having that QB also makes your team more attractive, which can have a positive effect on FA costs. 

 

To me the plan seems pretty clear. The Bills are going to build their core roster via the draft and get younger (with cheaper rookie contracts), fill spots in FA with mainly bargain type deals, hope their QB works out, then fill remaining skill positions to put them over the top (that is when I want and expect the Bills to pursue a big FA, it may be a bit cheaper comparatively speaking). All the while focusing on retaining their best players at the most important positions

 

I won't disagree with most of that.  But I do disagree with the strategy used.  

 

I don't agree with drafting, at major draft pick expense and a slew of picks that could have rebuilt the OL last year so that 'we'd have some existing chemistry this year, for the riskiest and small school QB in the draft.  

 

We'll see, if their strategy works out we're all set.  If not, as I've said, McD and Beane will be gone and we'll be hoping that Pegula "finally" hires a competent coach and GM, ... again.  Given his/their history with the Bills and Sabres to date, I'm not sure I'd bet a whole lot on that happening, as we enter the criticial option and stadium issue years where we'll need all the help we can get.  

 

Of their risky small school picks Jones isn't long for the team.  Allen's already facing an uphill battle.  I wouldn't bet a plug nickel that Singletary will be anything but a role-playing receiving back.  As to Oliver, he may be OK, but I fully expect that he's going to underachieve.  He couldn't handle double-teams in college, so he clearly wont' handle them in the NFL.  Man-to-man he was inconsistent, so not seeing why that should improve here, in the NFL either.  At this point if he turns into an average DT I'd say we'll be fortunate.  

 

Anyway, nothing I or we can do about it but sit back and watch.  I simply don't see any methodolgy to their approach.  Last year it was trade up for Allen and rely upon a QB that everyone but McD knew wasn't going anywhere in this league.  That alone raises questions.  

 

As to free agency, what are the big hurrahs?  What, Lotulolei, Brown, Morse, Benjamin (at the time), Murphy, Beasley?  Not impressed.  Apart from all but one, the biggest underachieving one, being injury risks, none are much beyond marginally above-average as starters.  

 

Again, I would have stocked the WR and OL last year with our first five picks, also taken Edmunds at 12th.  I would have waited until this year to draft a QB.  I'd be a lot more comfortable with Lock.  

 

 

Edited June 17, 2019 by Ronin

[MJS]

5 hours ago, SoTier said:

If will, drive, and leadership were all it took to become a great NFL QB, then Allen would undoubtedly become one.  Unfortunately, that's enough.  He has to develop the physical skills and learn to make good decisions under pressure in order to become a good enough QB to consistently lead his team to wins.   It's a tall order for Allen because he came into the NFL so raw and unprepared, and bnumerous first roundQB prospects who had excellent physical skills and were much more "NFL ready" than he was have failed that same test. 

 

At this point, nobody really knows just how good he can be, but he probably has to show significant improvement in order to have a better career than guys like Tannehill or Bortles.

Are you negative just for fun? If not, you are in some strange denial or alternate reality. Or you just don't know what you are looking at when watching the QB. Allen is CLEARLY going to be a special QB. He more than demonstrated that his rookie year.

 

I don't think he is going to be as good this year as most fans. I still think he'll have moments of struggle and make some bad decisions this year. But it is clear to me that he will be a franchise QB.

 

There's really no reason to not be on the Allen band wagon, unless arrogance or stubbornness stand in the way.

[rayray808]

I am in love with Josh Allen... there I said it

[formerlyofCtown]

6 hours ago, SoTier said:

If will, drive, and leadership were all it took to become a great NFL QB, then Allen would undoubtedly become one.  Unfortunately, that's enough.  He has to develop the physical skills and learn to make good decisions under pressure in order to become a good enough QB to consistently lead his team to wins.   It's a tall order for Allen because he came into the NFL so raw and unprepared, and bnumerous first roundQB prospects who had excellent physical skills and were much more "NFL ready" than he was have failed that same test. 

 

At this point, nobody really knows just how good he can be, but he probably has to show significant improvement in order to have a better career than guys like Tannehill or Bortles.

Tannehill and Bortles couldnt hold his joke strap.  His physical tools and intangibles are better than either.

5 hours ago, Don Beebe said:

SoTier sounds like a Jets fan.

Maybe hes from Ithica or Cortland.

[formerlyofCtown]

3 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

Here's a third group:  Ones that don't care about the past insofar as today is concerned, but that has the same high-level of standards of football that, for example, our '90s team did.  But more importantly, that championship teams do.  That's not about letting go of the past, it's about realizing how championship teams, or at least playoff competitive ones, are built, largely via experience of watching the NFL over the years.  

 

Otherwise, I'm seeing a good amount of "none of Allen's issues are actually attributable to Allen himself."   You completely excused all but the entirety of his issues, or let's say the issues with the passing game, by pointing at "being forced to roll out," "because the DL was under his chin," and how he "carried the offense as a rookie void of any talent around him on his back," while completely glancing over his inaccuracy issues, which are no small matter.  

 

Perhaps you can explain then how a former 4th-round prospect that came and went in this league in three seasons in about the most unceremonious manner possible, and one that hadn't taken a snap in nearly two years, came in for a single game and played lights out ball, lead the same exact crappy O w/o that was "void of any talent around him," to the team's biggest margin of victory, second most points (by 1), most total yards, more passing yards than Allen managed in any given game all season long, along with the highest QB rating in any game of the season?  

 

Keep in mind that Barkley was a former 4th-round pick, had 8 TDs and 18 INTs in three seasons with a mere 6 starts, which frankly, wasn't all that much better than Peterson, and essentially sucked mastodon pecans.  

 

What, sheer luck that a QB came in all but literally off the sofa to do that?  

 

While entirely unpopular, the alternative/contrary viewpoint here is that Allen's issues actually do in fact pertain to Allen and that his athleticism masked quite a bit of them.  

 

I'm also not seeing the same things as you did in the game videos nearly to the same scale.  I see Allen with plenty of time quite often, suggesting that our OL probably wasn't as bad as everyone seems to want it to be in defense of Allen, while utterly failing to see numerous wide-open receivers, very often with those receivers waving furiously only to let their arms flop frustratingly back down as Allen didn't see them, something that all average QBs do on a routine basis.  

 

I'll try to find a video or two and post some time-stamps as to the plays.  No one wants to acknowledge that they occurred.  Granted, that would mean reinventing the narrative.  

 

 

Barkley played One good game.  Even Rob Johnson caught teams with their pants down.  You look for improvement not a rookie making a run at the Superbowl.

[Protocal69]

50 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

We're not talking about Darnold.  Honestly ... 

 

But OK then, Darnold sucked, but Allen sucked twice as bad.  If the tables were turned most here would say that Allen won the game which is all that mattered.  Either way, Allen had 0 passing TDs, 2 INTs, a bunch of ill-advised throws.  Darnold no doubt some of the same, but also 1 TD and only 1 INT with a 2/3 completion to Allens 50%.  No doubt you'd point out that Allen had the much tougher D too.  The Jets D sucked moose plums last year.  

 

So your point is what exactly?  That they both sucked but Allen was really horrid?   OK, I won't disagree, except as a rusher. 

 

And how do you know what he's being taught?  

 

And yes, Allen needs to be taught to check down.  He also didn't do it at Wyoming.  That's fundamentals.  I find it interesting that people think that he's a shoe-in for learning to do it at the NFL level when he's never been good at it.  If we were talking about another team and their QB you'd be all over it, and rightly so.  

 

Lastly, I wasn't nitpicking plays.  I was showing that this false narrative that nothing is Allen's fault because he never has any time and opposing Ds cut through our OL like a hot knife thru butter last season simply aren't true.  

 

Honestly, why are you getting so upset?  

 

BTW, that's 17 plays whereby Allen didn't play well himself, and that was one of the few games that people said he improved in.  The NE game, another horrid one, was another one of his last four.  

Maybe, just maybe, the going pop-narratives simply aren't true.  

Well first of all you put Darnold name in your mouth at the beginning of your post " On a side note, Darnold, facing our "highly ranked D," outplayed Allen. "  2nd of all Allen did not suck twice as bad since he put up 38% more total offense 307 vs 180 ( Again stop cherry picking). 

 

Regarding checking down how do you know what fundamentals he was taught. I would say not much since he never went to any camps as a kid and really didn't get top flight coaching until he got to college with a limited supporting cast.

 

The book on Allen coming out was he was raw. Well guess what he played like he was raw. What he also did was learn throughout the season and he did enough for his coaching staff to invest in him more to give him more weapons and better protection. Well see how that works in Sept

Edited June 17, 2019 by Protocal69

[Inigo Montoya]

5 hours ago, Ga boy said:

Bravo on seeing things without rose tinted glasses.  I want Josh to be the answer, but the flaws can't be ignored.  I don't understand why we didn't draft an accurate QB in rounds 4-7.  Guess what:  Pats did.  Remember, this is same group who thought Peterman could.

 

Peyton Manning  Rookie Year

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD	AV
1998	22	IND	QB	18	16	16	3-13-0	326	575	56.7	3739	26	4.5	28	4.9	78	6.5	5.2	11.5	233.7	71.2		22	109	6.08	4.84	3.7	1	1	11

 

Completion percentage less than 60%.  Not accurate.

3-13 record.  Loser.

Only one 4th quarter comeback and one game winning drive.  Not clutch.

26 touchdowns to 28 INT.  Interception machine.

 

Peyton Manning = Bust

 

My point is to have everyone take a breath and give Allen a chance to learn the game.   I'm so glad someone didn't decide that I was a bust at my job my first year out of school.  There is no substitute for experience.  Why don't we give the kid an honest chance to gain some and then see where he stands.

 

 

[CSBill]

6 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

OK, let's use the Week 14 Jets game.  

 

 

0:15:  If Allen does what average QBs do, he sees Shady at the release and hits him for a decent gain.  Instead he immediately defaults to looking downfield.  I count a good 4 seconds before he even has to think about scrambling, which is a lifetime in the pocket. 

 

0:27:  If he's thinking quickly, which he isn't, he has an opportunity hit McKenzie on the short out on 2nd-and-10 setting up a 3rd-and-short possibly even a 1st-down.  Yes, he runs for the 1st, but again, at the expense of the passing game and risk of injury.  

 

0:42:  He misses Clay in the right flat and throws an ill-advised ball to Shady who's 7 yards behind the LoS.  

 

1:33:  Instead of relying on a seemingly good pocket Allen takes off running prematurely and fumbles the ball away.  The TO resulted in a Jets FG.  

 

2:35:  Misses Ivory in the right flat and runs instead. 

 

2:57:  On 1st-and-25 from our own 11 instead of throwing the ball away he throws a highly ill-advised pass that results in an INT.  

 

3:28:  He's got a wide-open man short-right on 2nd-and-10, whereby if he hits him we likely have a 1st-down, or close.  Instead he throws a horribly thrown (read highly inaccurate) all into multiple coverage nearly ending with an INT.  Again, I count 3+ seconds easily with no particular pressure.  

 

3:48:  Thompson makes a beautiful break to the outside on the left but Allen's inaccurate throw is way too far outside.  

 

4:05:  I suppose this is one of those "drops" that everyone talks about, but Allen throws completely behind Jones who actually made a very nice break.  Very difficult to catch ball, the announcer says "through his hands" which is ridiculous.  And you know me, hardly a Jones apologist.  Allen had plenty of time and it was about a 13-yard throw.  

 

7:50:  A dangerous and risky throw resulting in only a gain of 3.  

 

4:57:  Allen has all kinds of time but underthrows Ivory short.  At his feet.  

 

5:14:  Instead of dumping off to Ivory or throwing the ball away as he had time to do, at Ivory's feet e.g., he takes a sack.  Again, some pressure but only after 3 seconds or so.  

 

5:35:  Pressure right from the start, but instead of simply throwing the ball away once he's outside the tackle box he heaves it downfield where only a Jet defender is.  He threw a lot of picks like that.  

 

6:06:  With plenty of time on a rollout, Allen ignores a wide-open Thomas and throws into triple coverage.  Granted, complete, but risky contrasted with the easy play on 1st-and-10.  

 

6:26:  Allen, again, with plenty of time, doesn't see (or ignores) Murphy on the left and instead throws to the more heavily covered Jones.  

 

6:37:  Instead of throwing to Thomas as he comes out of his break Allen throws further downfield incomplete.  

 

7:37:  Horrible play!  Murphy comes out of the backfield and is wide open for a huge gain if Allen hits him.  Also wide open downfield is Foster.  Instead of taking what the defense gives him, Allen throws into coverage and right to Trumaine Johnson on a horribly (read inaccurate) thrown ball.  

 

Now, there's absolutely no way that those things were all the result of the "D under his chin" or no talent.  An open receiver is an open receiver, it doesn't matter if he's talented or not.  

 

On a side note, Darnold, facing our "highly ranked D," outplayed Allen.  At one point you can hear the announcers talking about how Allen's rating is around 50 and Darnold's around 80.  

 

Also, that was one of Allen's last four games where the narrative is that he improved towards the end of the season.  Another one of those four, the one prior to that last Miami game, was that horrid NE game too.  So again, not really seeing where the narrative on this improvement is real.  

 

Okay, you're right! We should have drafted Darnold, or anybody else. Do you feel better now?

 

So, go back to the basement and breakdown some more film, the rest of us will go off to work today.

 

Have a good one. .... For everyone else, NO MORE POSITIVE JOSH ALLEN posts! This issue is settled.

Edited June 17, 2019 by CSBill

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

23 minutes ago, CSBill said:

 

Okay, you're right! We should have drafted Darnold, or anybody else. Do you feel better now?

 

So, go back to the basement and breakdown some more film, the rest of us will go off to work today.

 

Have a good one. .... For everyone else, NO MORE POSITIVE JOSH ALLEN posts! This issue is settled.

 

Man, that guy (ronin) is just a repackaged revenant Allen-hater poster who was probably run off under a different user name.

 

Don't sweat the idiots.

 

[Gugny]

7 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

OK, let's use the Week 14 Jets game.  

 

A rookie QB with a crap O line and crap receivers made some mistakes.

 

You spent what seems to be a lot of time writing a bunch of crap no one is going to read ... so I helped you out.  You're welcome.

[4merper4mer]

53 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Man, that guy (ronin) is just a repackaged revenant Allen-hater poster who was probably run off under a different user name.

 

Don't sweat the idiots.

 

He also hates Oliver so he will have more material.

[SoTier]

6 hours ago, MJS said:

Are you negative just for fun? If not, you are in some strange denial or alternate reality. Or you just don't know what you are looking at when watching the QB. Allen is CLEARLY going to be a special QB. He more than demonstrated that his rookie year.

 

I don't think he is going to be as good this year as most fans. I still think he'll have moments of struggle and make some bad decisions this year. But it is clear to me that he will be a franchise QB.

 

There's really no reason to not be on the Allen band wagon, unless arrogance or stubbornness stand in the way.

 

If you want to declare Josh Allen a HOFer already, be my guest.   I'll wait until he at least plays more than 11 games.

 

6 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

We're not talking about Darnold.  Honestly ... 

 

But OK then, Darnold sucked, but Allen sucked twice as bad.  If the tables were turned most here would say that Allen won the game which is all that mattered.  Either way, Allen had 0 passing TDs, 2 INTs, a bunch of ill-advised throws.  Darnold no doubt some of the same, but also 1 TD and only 1 INT with a 2/3 completion to Allens 50%.  No doubt you'd point out that Allen had the much tougher D too.  The Jets D sucked moose plums last year.  

 

So your point is what exactly?  That they both sucked but Allen was really horrid?   OK, I won't disagree, except as a rusher. 

 

And how do you know what he's being taught?  

 

And yes, Allen needs to be taught to check down.  He also didn't do it at Wyoming.  That's fundamentals.  I find it interesting that people think that he's a shoe-in for learning to do it at the NFL level when he's never been good at it.  If we were talking about another team and their QB you'd be all over it, and rightly so.  

 

Lastly, I wasn't nitpicking plays.  I was showing that this false narrative that nothing is Allen's fault because he never has any time and opposing Ds cut through our OL like a hot knife thru butter last season simply aren't true.  

 

Honestly, why are you getting so upset?  

 

BTW, that's 17 plays whereby Allen didn't play well himself, and that was one of the few games that people said he improved in.  The NE game, another horrid one, was another one of his last four.  

Maybe, just maybe, the going pop-narratives simply aren't true.  

 

Realistic assessments of Allen -- or McDermott or Beane or any of the players they brought in, including Benjamin --- are not allowed in this thread ... or in TSW (aka The Kool Aid Zone) in general these days.

 

6 hours ago, rayray808 said:

I am in love with Josh Allen... there I said it

 

At least you're honest.   I loved JP Losman, too.  Unfortunately, all the fan love in the world doesn't make a QB great -- or even successful.  That's on the QB..  Hopefully Allen can overcome his shortcomings as a QB (and he does have them despite the narratives of some posters in this thread) far better than Losman, but at this point we don't have any idea if he will be able to do so.

 

[oldmanfan]

Like all young QBs Allen needs experience so the game slows down, so that he can make good pre and post snap reads.  Having a year in the offense and having Dorsey with him should help.  Having a better O line especially Morse to make line calls should help.  Comparisons to Wyoming aren't worth much because you don't know what he was or wasn't asked to do in that offense.

 

Allen has work to do.  Clearly.  He needs to improve on reads, needs better ball placement or precision in his throws (not accuracy per se as I've already gone over numerous times) especially on short throws. Knowing his reads better would help there.  He brings positives too including his arm strength and running ability.  It will be fun to watch him over the next several years.  He reminds me of a young Big Ben.  Big Ben his rookie year wasn't asked to do much and gradually ramped up with experience.  Hopefully Allen shows the same kind of growth.

[TPS]

13 hours ago, KzooMike said:

I saw this man child hit the deep middle 20 yard throw like no QB we have had since Bledsoe (who for all his shortcomings delivered that as well as anybody). I saw him often not stepping up in the pocket and delivering the ball awkwardly, but it was not because he was afraid it was because the DL was under his chin. Shockingly, he still delivered ropes all over the field from this position. 

 

Yes on this!  I think I mentioned after they got JBrown that having him and Foster on the outside would open up the middle for this type of throw, which I think is one of his best. This is where Zay or a guy like Knox can take advantage....