Josh Allen: Film Review From a Cynical Man

[reddogblitz]

After watching Josh last year I think he has the leadership, desire and determination to be a great QB.    Still not sure he can be an accurate enough passer to pull it off.

 

As Troy said on draft night, accuracy can't be taught (except in rare examples).  Either you are or you aren't. Troy said it.  I also read it in a book last night called "The Perfect Pass" which is about Hal Mumme and how he designed and coached the Air Raid offense.

 

https://www.amazon.com/Perfect-Pass-American-Reinvention-Football/dp/1501116207?SubscriptionId=AKIAILSHYYTFIVPWUY6Q&tag=ad-backfill-amzn-no-20&linkCode=xm2&camp=2025&creative=165953&creativeASIN=1501116207

 

In it he says this about inaccurate QBs.

 

Quote

They were after what Hal thought of as a quarterback cliché a big, strong, fast kid with a rocket arm who could deliver 50  yard frozen ropes downfield. If that player had been somewhat less than accurate in High School, so what?  They could teach him accuracy.  They would teach him to read the field and get rid of the ball fast.  He believed such players were extremely rare.    Either you threw accurate passes or you didn't, and if you didn't, there was little chance you could be taught to.   And that talent was visible a the High School level.  An inaccurate quarterback was like a one-legged man.  He would always be that way.

 

This is my concern with Josh.  This is what puts me in the "hopeful" category as opposed to the "believe" category.

Edited June 24, 2019 by reddogblitz

[Nihilarian]

15 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

After watching Josh last year I think he has the leadership, desire and determination to be a great QB.    Still not sure he can be an accurate enough passer to pull it off.

 

As Troy said on draft night, accuracy can't be taught (except in rare examples).  Either you are or you aren't. Troy said it.  I also read it in a book last night called "The Perfect Pass" which is about Hal Mumme and how he designed and coached the Air Raid offense.

 

https://www.amazon.com/Perfect-Pass-American-Reinvention-Football/dp/1501116207?SubscriptionId=AKIAILSHYYTFIVPWUY6Q&tag=ad-backfill-amzn-no-20&linkCode=xm2&camp=2025&creative=165953&creativeASIN=1501116207

 

In it he says this about inaccurate QBs.

 

 

This is my concern with Josh.  This is what puts me in the "hopeful" category as opposed to the "believe" category.

About the inaccuracy issue...

 

Now with Josh Allen and his college completion percentage was a lowly 56.2%. BUT, if you look deeper at his situation at Wyoming you would see several reasons why his completion percentage wasn't higher.

 

• Firstly, you need to look at all the schemes and systems all those four QB's were in and what type of passes they threw. Unlike the other three Josh Allen was in a pro style deep passing scheme with no dump offs, bubble screens or a lot short passes like those other three. 
• Allen's surrounding cast at Wyoming was not as refined as those other players at USC, UCLA, Oklahoma. Neither was his coaching staff.
• speaking of surrounding cast every player on offense that had touched the ball in 2016 was gone for his last season in 2017. So basically he was dealing with a roster filled with rookies learning their jobs.
• The Wyoming offensive line was very much like the 2018 Buffalo Bills line in that it wasn't very good and Allen was always under pressure to get the ball out quickly. 

 

Here is why Brandon Beane knew Allen was the right guy for Buffalo. https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/news/step-step-how-bills-knew-allen-was-right-them

 

How did the Bills brass view those concerns and still decide Allen was Their Man? In this day and age of instant video and in-depth stats right at your fingertips, they went back to the basics. Tracking every throw with their own pencil-to-paper looking at exactly what’s going on with and around him.

 

 He had no gimme throws. There’s no, basically like hand-offs, the bubbles and all that stuff. It was all a traditional pro-style, throwing the ball vertically, and you basically have to do your own stats. How many times did he bail out of there and throw it away, which is an incompletion? How many times did he have to do that vs. this guy and vs. that guy? And you also looked at what’s going on when he’s missing, when he should have made the play, what’s going on? And to us, it was pretty clear it’s when his feet were not right.

 

Now, right after the 2017 college season ended Allen went on to work with Jordan Palmer (Carson Palmer's Brother) and he knew that when "he" missed on a throw it was because his footwork was off. They worked on his footwork right up until the combine.

 

From Beane and from that article, 

 

"The most positive thing I saw, when he was at the Senior Bowl, his feet were in a much better position that week, he was much more accurate, not only during the week, but even in the game. "

 

Another article on Allen/Palmer,  https://billswire.usatoday.com/2018/08/22/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-jordan-palmer/

 

 

[reddogblitz]

3 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

About the inaccuracy issue...

 

Now with Josh Allen and his college completion percentage was a lowly 56.2%. BUT, if you look deeper at his situation at Wyoming you would see several reasons why his completion percentage wasn't higher.

 

• Firstly, you need to look at all the schemes and systems all those four QB's were in and what type of passes they threw. Unlike the other three Josh Allen was in a pro style deep passing scheme with no dump offs, bubble screens or a lot short passes like those other three. 
• Allen's surrounding cast at Wyoming was not as refined as those other players at USC, UCLA, Oklahoma. Neither was his coaching staff.
• speaking of surrounding cast every player on offense that had touched the ball in 2016 was gone for his last season in 2017. So basically he was dealing with a roster filled with rookies learning their jobs.
• The Wyoming offensive line was very much like the 2018 Buffalo Bills line in that it wasn't very good and Allen was always under pressure to get the ball out quickly. 

 

Here is why Brandon Beane knew Allen was the right guy for Buffalo. https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/news/step-step-how-bills-knew-allen-was-right-them

 

How did the Bills brass view those concerns and still decide Allen was Their Man? In this day and age of instant video and in-depth stats right at your fingertips, they went back to the basics. Tracking every throw with their own pencil-to-paper looking at exactly what’s going on with and around him.

 

 He had no gimme throws. There’s no, basically like hand-offs, the bubbles and all that stuff. It was all a traditional pro-style, throwing the ball vertically, and you basically have to do your own stats. How many times did he bail out of there and throw it away, which is an incompletion? How many times did he have to do that vs. this guy and vs. that guy? And you also looked at what’s going on when he’s missing, when he should have made the play, what’s going on? And to us, it was pretty clear it’s when his feet were not right.

 

Now, right after the 2017 college season ended Allen went on to work with Jordan Palmer (Carson Palmer's Brother) and he knew that when "he" missed on a throw it was because his footwork was off. They worked on his footwork right up until the combine.

 

From Beane and from that article, 

 

"The most positive thing I saw, when he was at the Senior Bowl, his feet were in a much better position that week, he was much more accurate, not only during the week, but even in the game. "

 

Another article on Allen/Palmer,  https://billswire.usatoday.com/2018/08/22/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-jordan-palmer/

 

 

 

Thanks for the well thought out response.  Maybe you're right.  I hope you are.  I didn't do a thorough pass by pass analysis or anything like that.  But I did watch him some in college and of course last year in Buffalo.  Given his bad WRs and OLine etc, I still saw primarily an inaccurate QB.  

 

I'll know he can be accurate when he IS accurate.  Until then I'm operating on a wait and see basis.

 

All the stats and everything you post make up for the results somewhat, but when I hear successful career football men like Troy and Hal say accuracy can't be taught and it's what I've seen personally in 50+ years watching football, it make me nervous about Josh ever being an accurate passer.

 

Go Josh !!

Go BILLS

[oldmanfan]

47 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Thanks for the well thought out response.  Maybe you're right.  I hope you are.  I didn't do a thorough pass by pass analysis or anything like that.  But I did watch him some in college and of course last year in Buffalo.  Given his bad WRs and OLine etc, I still saw primarily an inaccurate QB.  

 

I'll know he can be accurate when he IS accurate.  Until then I'm operating on a wait and see basis.

 

All the stats and everything you post make up for the results somewhat, but when I hear successful career football men like Troy and Hal say accuracy can't be taught and it's what I've seen personally in 50+ years watching football, it make me nervous about Josh ever being an accurate passer.

 

Go Josh !!

Go BILLS

You might want to look back at some threads addressing this.  Those who did do a game by game analysis saw his accuracy was Ok.  His ball placement or precision needs to be better especially on short throws.  

 

I would differ with the concept that accuracy cannot be taught.  Continual practice on fundamentals of and repetitive physical activity whether it be throwing a football, throwing darts, a golf swing can be improved by proper practice of fundamentals.

[reddogblitz]

13 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You might want to look back at some threads addressing this.  Those who did do a game by game analysis saw his accuracy was Ok.  His ball placement or precision needs to be better especially on short throws.  

 

I would differ with the concept that accuracy cannot be taught.  Continual practice on fundamentals of and repetitive physical activity whether it be throwing a football, throwing darts, a golf swing can be improved by proper practice of fundamentals.

 

In other words, he's inaccurate.

 

I did read some of those other posts, but just not buying it UNTIL he shows it on the field resulting in wins.  If you have to do statistical slicing and dicing to prove he's OK, then I'm not sure what to think about that.

 

He's on his third level of football, HS, college, and now the bigs.  In all stops he's been plagued by bad coaching and a bad supporting cast.  How much of that does he own? Any?  Maybe it was a combination of things (including him) with the same results?  His cast will be better this year so I expect better results.

 

You don't win much in the NFL with "his accuracy was OK."

 

That said, I'm keeping hope alive!

 

Go BILLS !!

 

[Rocky Landing]

8 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

In other words, he's inaccurate.

 

I did read some of those other posts, but just not buying it UNTIL he shows it on the field resulting in wins.  If you have to do statistical slicing and dicing to prove he's OK, then I'm not sure what to think about that.

 

He's on his third level of football, HS, college, and now the bigs.  In all stops he's been plagued by bad coaching and a bad supporting cast.  How much of that does he own? Any?  Maybe it was a combination of things (including him) with the same results?  His cast will be better this year so I expect better results.

 

You don't win much in the NFL with "his accuracy was OK."

 

That said, I'm keeping hope alive!

 

Go BILLS !!

 

This really depends on how you parse it. Allen can stand, flat-footed, and hit the goal post from 40 yards pretty consistently. But, is lacking anticipation, or the ability to throw a receiver open, or lead a receiver in a short-yard throw on the run a question if accuracy? Maybe so. But, are all of those elements unteachable?

[reddogblitz]

19 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

This really depends on how you parse it. Allen can stand, flat-footed, and hit the goal post from 40 yards pretty consistently. But, is lacking anticipation, or the ability to throw a receiver open, or lead a receiver in a short-yard throw on the run a question if accuracy? Maybe so. But, are all of those elements unteachable?

 

But that's not football. That's a parlor trick.  It's like when you go to the basketball game and the guys are standing around taking shots before the game, they make almost every one.  When the actual game starts, well, it's different. Same in football.  And guys can work on footwork all summer, but when under pressure they often fall to old habits.

 

At this point I view Josh as very similar to JP Losman.  JP could hit a few nice balls to Lee and the guys and then bounce a drive killer to the Beast in the flat on 3rd and 3.  

 

Some of that other stuff can be taught and hopefully the accuracy part can be too. I'm just gonna have to see it first.

 

Go BILLS !!

Edited June 25, 2019 by reddogblitz

[Rocky Landing]

3 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

But that's not football. That's a parlor trick.  It's like when you go to the basketball game and the guys are standing around taking shots before the game, they make almost every one.  When the actual game starts, well, it's different. Same in football.  And guys can work on footwork all summer, but when under pressure they often fall to old habits.

 

At this point I view Josh as very similar to JP Losman.  JP could hit a few nice balls to Lee and the guys and then bounce a drive killer into the Beast in the flat on 3rd and 3.  

 

Some of that other stuff can be taught and hopefully the accuracy part can be too. I'm just gonna have to see it first.

 

Go BILLS !!

As per the bolded, I completely agree, and understand the distinction. But, if we are going to talk about Allen’s accuracy issues, I think it’s impirtant to define the terms. And there are many. Does Allen have the ability to accurately throw a football from point A to point B? Yes. Does that make him an accurate passer? No. But, if he has the basic fundamentals, I do believe there are many of the other factors that certainly can be learned. 

 

I dont like the Losman comparison. I’m not even saying it isn’t accurate, or appropriate. But, at best, it’s incomplete, and I think such comparisons serve to pigeon hole the subject. JMO. 

[K-9]

27 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

But that's not football. That's a parlor trick.  It's like when you go to the basketball game and the guys are standing around taking shots before the game, they make almost every one.  When the actual game starts, well, it's different. Same in football.  And guys can work on footwork all summer, but when under pressure they often fall to old habits.

 

At this point I view Josh as very similar to JP Losman.  JP could hit a few nice balls to Lee and the guys and then bounce a drive killer to the Beast in the flat on 3rd and 3.  

 

Some of that other stuff can be taught and hopefully the accuracy part can be too. I'm just gonna have to see it first.

 

Go BILLS !!

Given his footwork (read platform) issues at times, I can see why you’d think that. I hope you agree that is where any similarity begins and ends though. Because two more disparate players never played the game. 

[thebandit27]

I wanted to clear up a misconception that I read in this thread.

 

There was a contention that Josh Allen was not a good passer in the red zone.

 

Well, that's debatable.  I looked it up, and Allen actually had a red zone passer rating of 92.8, which ranked 20th in the NFL.

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=111&type=Passing&year=

 

While that's not great, it's also not anywhere near as bad as some folks claimed.

[reddogblitz]

27 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Given his footwork (read platform) issues at times, I can see why you’d think that. I hope you agree that is where any similarity begins and ends though. Because two more disparate players never played the game. 

 

Perhaps, but at least so far the results have been very similar which is all I care about.

 

However, I would say Doug Flutie and Drew Beldsoe were more disparate than these 2 guys.  As are Russell Wilson and Phillip Rivers.

[Nihilarian]

On 6/18/2019 at 9:11 AM, Nihilarian said:

Wouldn't it strike you as unbelievably stupid of Beane/McD if they didn't heavily investigate this sole issue? I'm thoroughly certain they did, just as I did before the draft.

 

Allen talking with Mike Mayock at the combine. Allen was aware of his accuracy issues and he understood it was mostly his footwork that was off at times. As soon as the college season was over Allen went to work with Jordan Palmer on his mechanics, footwork. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tIb-B4sGd8&t=3s

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7l5BD8SaJ0

 

I couldn't be more encouraged about Allen after watching him play in the season finale against Miami. The Bills were up by 7 near the end of the second quarter and Allen threw a pick 6. Now it's 14-14 going into the third quarter. Instead of getting down about that pass, Allen led four TD drives and threw for two TDs and ran for another TD in the second half. Buffalo won that game 42-17 and Allen just dominated with his arm and legs. 

 

Here is another video with Rich Eisen talking with Trent Dilfer and John Brenkus. Watch it and you just might feel better about the upcoming season. 

 

 

 

Re-posting this from page 6 in this thread. Click the links and watch the vid. 

 

When you take everything from last season into consideration with the bad line, the somewhat bad receivers until later in the season. Along with no run game from the RBs to help take pressure off the QB, (not the RBs fault if there getting tackled behind the LoS) the suspect play calling with so many deep passes called with that bad line that at times that wouldn't even give two seconds of protection. 

 

I for one am very optimistic about the 2019 Buffalo Bills offense with all the new additions to the O line, receiver corps.

 

Just think, if the 2018 Bills defense can field the #2 overall and #1 pass defense with very little to no run game to control the clock and keep the defense off the field and fresh. Now think about Shady with Frank Gore pounding the rock with some actual holes to run through this season. Josh Allen now has three deep threats in Zay Jones, John Brown and Robert Foster who all can run a 4.5, 40 or faster. Cole Beasley as the first down machine from the slot. The Bills offense should be greatly improved. 

 

The only concerns I have about the first five games is the Bills run defense as they will see some very good RB's in Le'Veon Bell, Saquon Barkley, Joe Mixon, Sony Michel, Derrick Henry. Stopping the opponents run should be a big priority. Shut down the run and everything else will follow. 

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, Nihilarian said:

Re-posting this from page 6 in this thread. Click the links and watch the vid. 

 

When you take everything from last season into consideration with the bad line, the somewhat bad receivers until later in the season. Along with no run game from the RBs to help take pressure off the QB, (not the RBs fault if there getting tackled behind the LoS) the suspect play calling with so many deep passes called with that bad line that at times that wouldn't even give two seconds of protection. 

 

I for one am very optimistic about the 2019 Buffalo Bills offense with all the new additions to the O line, receiver corps.

 

Just think, if the 2018 Bills defense can field the #2 overall and #1 pass defense with very little to no run game to control the clock and keep the defense off the field and fresh. Now think about Shady with Frank Gore pounding the rock with some actual holes to run through this season. Josh Allen now has three deep threats in Zay Jones, John Brown and Robert Foster who all can run a 4.5, 40 or faster. Cole Beasley as the first down machine from the slot. The Bills offense should be greatly improved. 

 

The only concerns I have about the first five games is the Bills run defense as they will see some very good RB's in Le'Veon Bell, Saquon Barkley, Joe Mixon, Sony Michel, Derrick Henry. Stopping the opponents run should be a big priority. Shut down the run and everything else will follow. 

That is why the offense has to improve....to help out our defense when they actually need it

[Mat68]

Allen is the most exciting Qb Buffalo has had under center since Flutie.  Allen imo is most see TV.  Whether it's a scramble, throw, or run he jumps off the TV and is exciting to watch.  With more nuance I think he has the potential to be the best Qb since Kelly.  He is a big time talent.  He is the undisputed leader.  I think Allen and the Bill's have a big year.

[thebandit27]

On 6/25/2019 at 1:55 PM, reddogblitz said:

 

In other words, he's inaccurate.

 

I did read some of those other posts, but just not buying it UNTIL he shows it on the field resulting in wins.  If you have to do statistical slicing and dicing to prove he's OK, then I'm not sure what to think about that.

 

He's on his third level of football, HS, college, and now the bigs.  In all stops he's been plagued by bad coaching and a bad supporting cast.  How much of that does he own? Any?  Maybe it was a combination of things (including him) with the same results?  His cast will be better this year so I expect better results.

 

You don't win much in the NFL with "his accuracy was OK."

 

That said, I'm keeping hope alive!

 

Go BILLS !!

 

 

Wait, aren't you the same @reddogblitz that once called Trent Dilfer "an all time great"?  The same Trent Dilfer that had the following stat line over his first 18 starts:

 

7 wins, 11 losses, 262/497 (52.7%), 3,207 yards (6.45 YPA), 5 TDs, 24 INTs, 55 sacks, 56.13 passer rating

[reddogblitz]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Wait, aren't you the same @reddogblitz that once called Trent Dilfer "an all time great"?  The same Trent Dilfer that had the following stat line over his first 18 starts:

 

7 wins, 11 losses, 262/497 (52.7%), 3,207 yards (6.45 YPA), 5 TDs, 24 INTs, 55 sacks, 56.13 passer rating

 

Trent has the hardware.  If/when Josh gets the hardware I'll give him the same consideration.  Just win baby.

[oldmanfan]

On 6/25/2019 at 1:55 PM, reddogblitz said:

 

In other words, he's inaccurate.

 

I did read some of those other posts, but just not buying it UNTIL he shows it on the field resulting in wins.  If you have to do statistical slicing and dicing to prove he's OK, then I'm not sure what to think about that.

 

He's on his third level of football, HS, college, and now the bigs.  In all stops he's been plagued by bad coaching and a bad supporting cast.  How much of that does he own? Any?  Maybe it was a combination of things (including him) with the same results?  His cast will be better this year so I expect better results.

 

You don't win much in the NFL with "his accuracy was OK."

 

That said, I'm keeping hope alive!

 

Go BILLS !!

 

Accuracy is different than precision.  Look back through my older posts for an explanation or google the dartboard explanation.

[thebandit27]

55 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Trent has the hardware.  If/when Josh gets the hardware I'll give him the same consideration.  Just win baby.

 

So Dilfer is an all time great?

 

You know that's a laughable take, right?

[reddogblitz]

8 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

So Dilfer is an all time great?

 

You know that's a laughable take, right?

 

Trent has the hardware.  I don't care if he's an all time great or not.  I suspect when he goes to bed at night with his Lombardi by his side he worries about if thebandit27 considers him to be an "all time great" or not.

 

Big time players make the big time plays when they need to be made.  Trent did.  Josh not so much yet.  We'll see.

[thebandit27]

24 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Trent has the hardware.  I don't care if he's an all time great or not.  I suspect when he goes to bed at night with his Lombardi by his side he worries about if thebandit27 considers him to be an "all time great" or not.

 

Big time players make the big time plays when they need to be made.  Trent did.  Josh not so much yet.  We'll see.

 

As long as you realize that your Dilfer-is-an-all-time-great opinion renders your opinion about all things QB-related moot, then we're good.