Josh Allen: Film Review From a Cynical Man

[Mikie2times]

I don't think I'm alone in feeling the way I do. I think many of you feel the same way. It's hard to trust this team. It's hard to trust the QB position. 20 years of psychological warfare, unmet expectations, disappointment. This is one of the most emotionally invested fan bases in the NFL. We have been burned so repetitively we have become split between two groups of people. Ones that can let go of the past be optimistic and move forward, then another group that is just as passionate and loyal but defends themselves emotionally by lowering expectations. I'm part of the latter but always fighting myself to push closer towards the former.

 

I saw things in Allen's statistical profile last year that concerned me a great deal. How often he was running. Accuracy issues. Topics discussed many times on this forum as indicators to be cautious. I spent a lot time watching film on Josh this weekend. From the eyes of an emotionally defeated, lowered expectation, pessimist, this is what I saw. 

 

A kid in the shape of a giant outrunning defenders not because he couldn't read progressions or step up in the pocket, but because he was either forced to roll out or more often because the defensive line completely over pursued. He took advantage of mistakes defenses made and put DC's on notice this year. If you want to play pin the ears back and undisciplined in your pass rush he will make you pay.

 

I saw this man child hit the deep middle 20 yard throw like no QB we have had since Bledsoe (who for all his shortcomings delivered that as well as anybody). I saw him often not stepping up in the pocket and delivering the ball awkwardly, but it was not because he was afraid it was because the DL was under his chin. Shockingly, he still delivered ropes all over the field from this position. 

 

I saw a player that can make every conceivable throw a QB can make in this league and many the majority of QB's could not. A player that when in cadence and rhythm was decisive and accurate. Somebody fully capable of turning absolutely nothing into not only positive yardage but sometimes a lot more. Oh by the way,  a natural leader that inspired his teammates.

 

You would have to have beaten Bills syndrome to the fullest level to not see the same things. Allen is a special player. He carried this offense as rookie void of any talent around him on his back last year. This year he has some weapons. So why not Buffalo, lets do this one more time. I'm on board and will put the past behind me. I think we make the playoffs this season. Then I think we challenge for what we really want in the years to come.  

Edited June 16, 2019 by KzooMike

[Socal-805]

20 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

I don't think I'm alone in feeling the way I do. I think many of you feel the same way. It's hard to trust this team. It's hard to trust the QB position. 20 years of psychological warfare, unmet expectations, disappointment. This is one of the most emotionally invested fan bases in the NFL. We have been burned so repetitively we have become split between two groups of people. Ones that can let go of the past be optimistic and move forward, then another group that is just as passionate and loyal but defends themselves emotionally by lowering expectations. I'm part of the latter but always fighting myself to push closer towards the former.

 

I saw things in Allen's statistical profile last year that concerned me a great deal. How often he was running. Accuracy issues. Topics discussed many times on this forum as indicators to be cautious. I spent a lot time watching film on Josh this weekend. From the eyes of an emotionally defeated, lowered expectation, pessimist, this is what I saw. 

 

A kid in the shape of a giant outrunning defenders not because he couldn't read progressions or step up in the pocket, but because he was either forced to roll out or more often because the defensive line completely over pursued. He took advantage of mistakes defenses made and put DC's on notice this year. If you want to play pin the ears back and undisciplined in your pass rush he will make you pay.

 

I saw this man child hit the deep middle 20 yard throw like no QB we have had since Bledsoe (who for all his shortcomings delivered that as well as anybody). I saw him often not stepping up in the pocket and delivering the ball awkwardly, but it was not because he was afraid it was because the DL was under his chin. Shockingly, he still delivered ropes all over the field from this position. 

 

I saw a player that can make every conceivable throw a QB can make in this league and many the majority of QB's could not. A player that when in cadence and rhythm was decisive and accurate. Somebody fully capable of turning absolutely nothing into not only positive yardage but sometimes a lot more. Oh by the way,  a natural leader that inspired his teammates.

 

You would have to have beaten Bills syndrome to the fullest level to not see the same things. Allen is a special player. He carried this offense as rookie void of any talent around him on his back last year. This year he has some weapons. So why not Buffalo, lets do this one more time. I'm on board and will put the past behind me. I think we make the playoffs this season. Then I think we challenge for what we really want in the years to come.  

 

 

Very good.  Thank you.

 

Some of the stats that I saw have he throwing very rarely over 20 + yards over the middle: what or how many yoems did you see this?

 

 

Thanks.

 

 

 

 

[SoTier]

If will, drive, and leadership were all it took to become a great NFL QB, then Allen would undoubtedly become one.  Unfortunately, that's enough.  He has to develop the physical skills and learn to make good decisions under pressure in order to become a good enough QB to consistently lead his team to wins.   It's a tall order for Allen because he came into the NFL so raw and unprepared, and bnumerous first roundQB prospects who had excellent physical skills and were much more "NFL ready" than he was have failed that same test. 

 

At this point, nobody really knows just how good he can be, but he probably has to show significant improvement in order to have a better career than guys like Tannehill or Bortles.

[JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS]

1 minute ago, SoTier said:

If will, drive, and leadership were all it took to become a great NFL QB, then Allen would undoubtedly become one.  Unfortunately, that's enough.  He has to develop the physical skills and learn to make good decisions under pressure in order to become a good enough QB to consistently lead his team to wins.   It's a tall order for Allen because he came into the NFL so raw and unprepared, and bnumerous first roundQB prospects who had excellent physical skills and were much more "NFL ready" than he was have failed that same test. 

 

At this point, nobody really knows just how good he can be, but he probably has to show significant improvement in order to have a better career than guys like Tannehill or Bortles.

that didn't take long lol

 

[vorpma]

37 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

I don't think I'm alone in feeling the way I do. I think many of you feel the same way. It's hard to trust this team. It's hard to trust the QB position. 20 years of psychological warfare, unmet expectations, disappointment. This is one of the most emotionally invested fan bases in the NFL. We have been burned so repetitively we have become split between two groups of people. Ones that can let go of the past be optimistic and move forward, then another group that is just as passionate and loyal but defends themselves emotionally by lowering expectations. I'm part of the latter but always fighting myself to push closer towards the former.

 

I saw things in Allen's statistical profile last year that concerned me a great deal. How often he was running. Accuracy issues. Topics discussed many times on this forum as indicators to be cautious. I spent a lot time watching film on Josh this weekend. From the eyes of an emotionally defeated, lowered expectation, pessimist, this is what I saw. 

 

A kid in the shape of a giant outrunning defenders not because he couldn't read progressions or step up in the pocket, but because he was either forced to roll out or more often because the defensive line completely over pursued. He took advantage of mistakes defenses made and put DC's on notice this year. If you want to play pin the ears back and undisciplined in your pass rush he will make you pay.

 

I saw this man child hit the deep middle 20 yard throw like no QB we have had since Bledsoe (who for all his shortcomings delivered that as well as anybody). I saw him often not stepping up in the pocket and delivering the ball awkwardly, but it was not because he was afraid it was because the DL was under his chin. Shockingly, he still delivered ropes all over the field from this position. 

 

I saw a player that can make every conceivable throw a QB can make in this league and many the majority of QB's could not. A player that when in cadence and rhythm was decisive and accurate. Somebody fully capable of turning absolutely nothing into not only positive yardage but sometimes a lot more. Oh by the way,  a natural leader that inspired his teammates.

 

You would have to have beaten Bills syndrome to the fullest level to not see the same things. Allen is a special player. He carried this offense as rookie void of any talent around him on his back last year. This year he has some weapons. So why not Buffalo, lets do this one more time. I'm on board and will put the past behind me. I think we make the playoffs this season. Then I think we challenge for what we really want in the years to come.  

Talk to me in December! Maybe yes Maybe no!

[Don Beebe]

45 minutes ago, JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS said:

that didn't take long lol

 

SoTier sounds like a Jets fan.

[Augie]

I am cautiously optimistic. Hard not to love the guy, I just hope he can become the real deal. 

[Kelly the Dog]

That would have been an almost expected post from a Josh fan. But from a Josh critic it is an excellent one. I find it hard for anyone to watch the games from last year and not see him swarmed immediately a huge portion of the time, and still trying to make a play. That is the reason for his completion percentage more than inaccuracy.

[Buffalophil1948]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

If will, drive, and leadership were all it took to become a great NFL QB, then Allen would undoubtedly become one.  Unfortunately, that's enough.  He has to develop the physical skills and learn to make good decisions under pressure in order to become a good enough QB to consistently lead his team to wins.   It's a tall order for Allen because he came into the NFL so raw and unprepared, and bnumerous first roundQB prospects who had excellent physical skills and were much more "NFL ready" than he was have failed that same test. 

 

At this point, nobody really knows just how good he can be, but he probably has to show significant improvement in order to have a better career than guys like Tannehill or Bortles.

Work ethic! This kid wants to win. You can see it in his demeanor.  People can say they are all about winning but Josh shows it. Is he perfect? No. Does he work on what his is deficient in. Hell yes he does. Isn't that what Buffalo is all about.  He gets what Buffalo is all about more than some posters around here. I for one am happy he is the face of this franchise, he will represent it with pride. I'm good with that.  Now go out there and get me a SuperBowl before I die will ya?

[JohnnyK]

I have always been a kool-aide drinker, but it feels different now...like the bills are actuality  heading the right direction

and

Josh Allen just needs to make big plays to win games, it's not about the stats just winning!!!!

 

Go Bills!

[PJBrown7]

Great post.  I was fortunate enough to be in Buffalo for his first start against the Chargers (from Hamburg  but live in Nashville now)  and again at Miami in December. The Chargers game he looked like a rookie but you could see some flashes. By the Miami game, he looked like a leader of men and pretty much put the team on his back to win and came up one dropped pass short. The Miami fans sitting around me were all “why didn’t we get this guy”.....What I like about him besides all his off the chart physical ability is his apparent strong workout thick and brains. If things go right we’ve got something special here!

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, KzooMike said:

I don't think I'm alone in feeling the way I do. I think many of you feel the same way. It's hard to trust this team. It's hard to trust the QB position. 20 years of psychological warfare, unmet expectations, disappointment. This is one of the most emotionally invested fan bases in the NFL. We have been burned so repetitively we have become split between two groups of people. Ones that can let go of the past be optimistic and move forward, then another group that is just as passionate and loyal but defends themselves emotionally by lowering expectations. I'm part of the latter but always fighting myself to push closer towards the former.

 

I saw things in Allen's statistical profile last year that concerned me a great deal. How often he was running. Accuracy issues. Topics discussed many times on this forum as indicators to be cautious. I spent a lot time watching film on Josh this weekend. From the eyes of an emotionally defeated, lowered expectation, pessimist, this is what I saw. 

 

A kid in the shape of a giant outrunning defenders not because he couldn't read progressions or step up in the pocket, but because he was either forced to roll out or more often because the defensive line completely over pursued. He took advantage of mistakes defenses made and put DC's on notice this year. If you want to play pin the ears back and undisciplined in your pass rush he will make you pay.

 

I saw this man child hit the deep middle 20 yard throw like no QB we have had since Bledsoe (who for all his shortcomings delivered that as well as anybody). I saw him often not stepping up in the pocket and delivering the ball awkwardly, but it was not because he was afraid it was because the DL was under his chin. Shockingly, he still delivered ropes all over the field from this position. 

 

I saw a player that can make every conceivable throw a QB can make in this league and many the majority of QB's could not. A player that when in cadence and rhythm was decisive and accurate. Somebody fully capable of turning absolutely nothing into not only positive yardage but sometimes a lot more. Oh by the way,  a natural leader that inspired his teammates.

 

You would have to have beaten Bills syndrome to the fullest level to not see the same things. Allen is a special player. He carried this offense as rookie void of any talent around him on his back last year. This year he has some weapons. So why not Buffalo, lets do this one more time. I'm on board and will put the past behind me. I think we make the playoffs this season. Then I think we challenge for what we really want in the years to come.  

 

 

So, to sum up ... you're a Bills fan who is willing to drink Kool-Aid? Don't know if I've ever seen one of those here before.

 

Me, I'm still legitimately hopeful, but as always, from Missouri.

Edited June 17, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Protocal69]

Well I was compiling some stats after watching some Dallas games with Dak Prescott and compared that to Josh Allen and determined that from behind the LOS to 10 yards out that composed of 73% of Dak Prescott pass attempts compared to 46% to Josh Allen's. On those passes Dak hit 80% of those passes compared to 75% for Josh Allen. If the ratios and percentages stayed the same if Josh rose his pass attempts to 73% from behind the LOS to 10 yards out from 46% that would result in 27 more completions for the  season and would raise his overall completion percentage for the season from 52% to 61%

Edited June 17, 2019 by Protocal69

[K-9]

 

8 minutes ago, Protocal69 said:

Well I was compiling some stats after watching some Dallas games with Dak Prescott and compared that to Josh Allen and determined that from behind the LOS to 10 yards out that composed of 73% of Dak Prescott pass attempts compared to 46% to Josh Allen's. On those passes Dak hit 80% of those passes compared to 75% for Josh Allen. If the ratios and percentages stayed the same if Josh rose his pass attempts to 73% from behind the LOS to 10 yards out from 46% that would result in 27 more completions for the  season and would raise his overall completion percentage for the season from 52% to 61%

Josh is a risk taker, pure and simple. He doesn’t give up on plays, sometimes to his detriment. Whereas Dak goes to his checkdowns much more quickly. I’m confident that Allen will start taking more of what the defense is giving him as we saw post injury last season. And when that happens with regularity, watch out. Because he has the arm to take what he wants when defenses adjust to the fact he’s taking what they’re giving him.

Edited June 17, 2019 by K-9

[Ga boy]

14 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

Here's a third group:  Ones that don't care about the past insofar as today is concerned, but that has the same high-level of standards of football that, for example, our '90s team did.  But more importantly, that championship teams do.  That's not about letting go of the past, it's about realizing how championship teams, or at least playoff competitive ones, are built, largely via experience of watching the NFL over the years.  

 

Otherwise, I'm seeing a good amount of "none of Allen's issues are actually attributable to Allen himself."   You completely excused all but the entirety of his issues, or let's say the issues with the passing game, by pointing at "being forced to roll out," "because the DL was under his chin," and how he "carried the offense as a rookie void of any talent around him on his back," while completely glancing over his inaccuracy issues, which are no small matter.  

 

Perhaps you can explain then how a former 4th-round prospect that came and went in this league in three seasons in about the most unceremonious manner possible, and one that hadn't taken a snap in nearly two years, came in for a single game and played lights out ball, lead the same exact crappy O w/o that was "void of any talent around him," to the team's biggest margin of victory, second most points (by 1), most total yards, more passing yards than Allen managed in any given game all season long, along with the highest QB rating in any game of the season?  

 

Keep in mind that Barkley was a former 4th-round pick, had 8 TDs and 18 INTs in three seasons with a mere 6 starts, which frankly, wasn't all that much better than Peterson, and essentially sucked mastodon pecans.  

 

What, sheer luck that a QB came in all but literally off the sofa to do that?  

 

While entirely unpopular, the alternative/contrary viewpoint here is that Allen's issues actually do in fact pertain to Allen and that his athleticism masked quite a bit of them.  

 

I'm also not seeing the same things as you did in the game videos nearly to the same scale.  I see Allen with plenty of time quite often, suggesting that our OL probably wasn't as bad as everyone seems to want it to be in defense of Allen, while utterly failing to see numerous wide-open receivers, very often with those receivers waving furiously only to let their arms flop frustratingly back down as Allen didn't see them, something that all average QBs do on a routine basis.  

 

I'll try to find a video or two and post some time-stamps as to the plays.  No one wants to acknowledge that they occurred.  Granted, that would mean reinventing the narrative.  

 

 

Bravo on seeing things without rose tinted glasses.  I want Josh to be the answer, but the flaws can't be ignored.  I don't understand why we didn't draft an accurate QB in rounds 4-7.  Guess what:  Pats did.  Remember, this is same group who thought Peterman could.

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Amen bro.

I can see him hosting the Lombardi. 

Really, truly. 

[Jay_Fixit]

I like sports and I don’t care who knows.

[Ronin]

13 hours ago, Ga boy said:

Bravo on seeing things without rose tinted glasses.  I want Josh to be the answer, but the flaws can't be ignored.  I don't understand why we didn't draft an accurate QB in rounds 4-7.  Guess what:  Pats did.  Remember, this is same group who thought Peterman could.

 

 

[Doc Brown]

I'm part of the latter group as well especially given his draft profile coming in.  I still need to see his ability to improve in quickly going through his progressions, making adjustments at the line, and becoming more consistent with his accuracy.  He's basically who I thought he would be last year with two exceptions.  I didn't know he was that mobile and that passionate.

[TigerJ]

3 hours ago, SoTier said:

If will, drive, and leadership were all it took to become a great NFL QB, then Allen would undoubtedly become one.  Unfortunately, that's enough.  He has to develop the physical skills and learn to make good decisions under pressure in order to become a good enough QB to consistently lead his team to wins.   It's a tall order for Allen because he came into the NFL so raw and unprepared, and bnumerous first roundQB prospects who had excellent physical skills and were much more "NFL ready" than he was have failed that same test. 

 

At this point, nobody really knows just how good he can be, but he probably has to show significant improvement in order to have a better career than guys like Tannehill or Bortles.

Well, it is a no brainer that Allen has to show significant improvement in order to have a better career than Tannehill or Bortles.  That does not negate the OP's observation about his talent.  For myself, I have been hopeful for some time now that Josh Allen might be the long awaited answer at QB for Buffalo.  He has some characteristics that can't be coached, and I'm not just talking about his physical talent.  From all accounts that we've heard, he has more than the usual drive to be great.  He wants it.  He has natural leadership ability according to multiple observations from his teammates, and he has an excellent head on his shoulders for learning and understanding the mental aspect of the game: studying film, reading defenses and making decisions.  There is still stuff he has to do on the field, butthere is ample reason to be optimistic until the final verdict is in.