4merper4mer Posted June 12, 2019 Posted June 12, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, Ronin said: That's a great question that needs to be looked at. Think about it, draft "experts," say the Kipers, etc., and there are a handful of nationally known ones, write stuff up about hundreds of prospects. I spend about 3-4 hours immediately following our drafts to initially gather a minimum amount of info on a player, the absolutely minimum that I would gather if I were a scout responsible for drafting a player. Keep in mind, that different people also see different things in players. I'll use Oliver as an example. Some people sparring with me on Oliver have openly stated that he's a monster of sorts against double and triple teams. I don't see it, but forget me, use NFL.com's own profile, which says; Gets mauled by down blocks and double teams The narrative here is contrary to that. So where did it come from? Certainly not the draft profiles. Other draft reviews on him say similarly. Why? Because it's true. So simply speaking contrarily here, or anywhere, doesn't change that. But the point is that if I were to conduct what I consider to be the bare minimum amount of research on a single player, for say even a mere 100 players, it would take me 50 days, which is two months, and assuming that I do little else in life. Frankly, if I were charged with analyzing for a team I'd spend significantly more than that even. It would take me months for a mere hundred players, far more for 200+. So regarding your question, "didn't any of these scouts read anything?", whether it was meant sarcastically or not, assuming not, is a very good question. The short answer, or at least part of it, is that they trust to some extent, which can be debated, the established opinions and narratives of others. They have to unless they have no other life the entire year. It's always best to do one's own research and not rely on the opinions of others that routinely get an enormous part of what they do wrong annually, and w/o any consequences whatsoever except for the teams FO people that trusted them. I mean think about what everyone back then said about Spiller and Watkins as merely two examples. They were "special," once in a lifetime type of players. Nonsense as it turned out. Neither has been even average and Spiller was finished after 8 seasons of averaging just over 400 yards rushing and 1.5 TDs per season. Watkins too, in five seasons he's averaged about 700 yards and fewer than 6 TDs/season. Both players have had a mere one 100-yard season in 13 total seasons. Yet, all of the experts said they'd both be great and were special. How/why did I come up with a contrary opinion on an island as it were, back then, immediately following the draft. Even now, look at what people are looking at. I read that Oliver lit it up against a sled and against Teller. Is Teller for some unbeknownst reason a good indicator as to future stardom if a player can dominate him? If so, a lot of stars were created last year on his watch, eh. Frankly, I don't think that Teller will even be on the team next season, quite possibly not even this one, particularly if all of these newly acquired OL-men are really as good as everyone's saying. I also just looked at some Oliver highlights that I hadn't seen before while looking at a few draft profiles. One guys had a string of videos asking, "would you want to go up against this guy?," referring to Oliver. The opponent was East Carolina, so let's add some additional perspective to that tremendously superficial analysis. All of the videos were in one game against EC, the game in which Oliver had the most TFLs and 2 of his 3 season sacks. EC ranked 123rd (out of 130) in Compl. %, 120th YPA, and 124th in Rating. To start, this was East Carolina, a 3-9 team with the 57th ranked yardage offense, the 109th scoring offense, "led" by an absolutely horrific sophomore QB who was replaced by a rookie QB in that game. But here's the big thing. The videos that the guy showed had Oliver going up against an OL-man named Cortez Herrin, a 3-star recruit that unlike Oliver had offers from three teams, none good. EC, North Carolina Central, and South Carolina State, the latter two being a pair of FBS scrimmage punching bags in the same MEAC conference that Bethune Cookman is in. Otherwise, I looked at several draft listings for next year and didn't see Herrin even on the lists for G or OL otherwise, not even mentioned, meaning that it's highly unlikely that he'll ever play in the NFL period, much less be any good. In fact, EC has never placed an OL of significant in the NFL. So let's consider this. Aside from what you or I think about Oliver, do you think that that is a good measure for use in projecting how he'll play in the NFL? i.e., is that methodology sound? In the same way, is reacting to how well he handled Teller much of a comp? He won't regularly be going up against the likes of either player starting in September. But the thing that makes it more difficult and complicating to evaluate Oliver is that he really didn't go up against a single OL-man that will end up starting on Sundays. Presumably you can see the illogic and fallibility of much of what those same scouts that you question actually do. But they do this with just about all players. Granted, it's hardly an exact science, but honestly, that's like watching someone play flag football and projecting how good they'll be at Alabama. Garbage in, garbage out. I don't care how he does vs. a sled, Teller, Herrin, or even Paul Stawarz, a Sr. G at Texas Tech. It's pretty meaningless, except of course on the litany of plays where he doesn't even beat Stawarz. Someone here challenged my analysis of Oliver in that game and cited four plays while leap-frogging 7 or 8 where Oliver got all but entirely stood up by Stawarz. Again, people tend to see what they want to see, scouts too. Anyway, just using Oliver as an example here, but this lack of in-depth analysis and overreliance on the established narratives of just a couple of people that simply haven't done that extent of research on most players. Having said all of that, you asked whether or not they've "read" anything. I'd extend that to whether or not they've A, actually watched the games/highlights of the games, B, considered whom the primary man opponent is and what that man's credentials are, or C, considered the success rate as such. Anything they've read is likely at least partially problematic straight out of the gate for the reasons above. So how is it that so few other people see that side of him? Again, you can do this for many players. I did it for Spiller, whose highlights as I recall were based largely on a few receiving plays OOTB that went for bookoo yards, but his average 3-down play was nothing special. His ability as a simple rusher was overrated and therefore overstated. Same for Watkins, he excelled in bubble screens as I recall. Those are plays that simply don't work in the NFL and therefore are rarely even used. One had to look past those to project Watkins, yet no one but me did so. Jones too, a garbage time expert often in 5-WR spread formations. How often do we use a 5 spread? All but never. Granted, we have often played from behind. Anyway those are the things that scouts should be digging for but don't. I honestly think that most simply want to keep their jobs so instead of offering contrary opinions they stick to the status quo so if/when they're wrong they can always fall back onto the "well, everyone thought that ...." thing. At least that way they've hedged against being wrong. Our FO needs someone to offer then straight forward takes on players given our modern draft history. Is there any reason Sills went undrafted? Your answer seems to be: Spiller sucks Watkins sucks Oliver sucks Jones sucks You have been overlooked and should be added to the Bills staff But why wasn't Sills drafted? Edited June 12, 2019 by 4merper4mer
Ronin Posted June 12, 2019 Posted June 12, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said: Is there any reason Sills went undrafted? Your answer seems to be: Spiller sucks Watkins sucks Oliver sucks Jones sucks You have been overlooked and should be added to the Bills staff But why wasn't Sills drafted? I'll restate the point; People that get paid to analyze draftees do an incomplete job. Narratives rule despite their veracity. People getting paid to rate players said that all of the above would be great. None, Oliver pending, were. Why not? Again, my reasoning is in the post that you cited. Why did everyone have them rated so high? I didn't, but again, I explained why. If you are asking for MO on why, I would say that I would have taken a WR like Sills over a WR like Jones any day of the week. I went thru why. I said at the time that Jones was a 4th/5th round prospect, not what the analysts said. I can't speak for anyone else, only myself. That's why I thought that not taking Smith-Shuster at that time was a mistake. Do I think that Sills is going to light things up in the NFL, no. But much like I criticized the pick of James Hardy back then (round 2) and stated that I expected Stevie Johnson (round 7) to be better, while stating that Hardy would be a bust, which he was, and got laughed at I might as well add, so too, I think that Sills will probably perform better as well as over a longer period of time than Jones will. Not to the same delta extent as Hardy/Stevie, just sayin', in general. I don't think that Jones will be on the team next season and it wouldn't surprise me if he gets cut if a WR like Sills comes on. The top reasons on my list as to why he was not drafted, which is a bit surprising, are probably because of what I already mentioned about him, and per his draft-profile at nfl.com, which states; Disappointing amount of drops this year Fastballs ate him up and he had issues with contested catches Just 55 percent of throws his way were completed Those are pretty important things to have as negatives, especially considering that Allen's a fastball QB. As well, did you see his 40-time? ... compare it to other WRs in his class? I mean if you don't look at these things than you cannot really criticize others that don't. He's a bit slow. Big WR with good hands apparently, but not the fastest and not the best in traffic. Still, I have absolutely no idea why he went undrafted. I'd rate him as a 3rd or 4th round prospect. He was Grier's top target and led the team in yards, catches, and TDs, and in 2017 he again led the team in TDs. I pointed out elsewhere that he scored a TD every 4 catches or so. Jones was closer to one every 20 in college and was one nearly every 10 here. He was a great pick-up and frankly, I would have drafted him over any of the players we drafted on day 3, especially since we were in dire need of WRs. I'm a big Miami (Canes) fan and I don't see Jaquan Johnson making that much of an impact. Not to mention that we really didn't need another S. I can see Sills being a consistent 700-800 yard/8 TD WR on the right team, not sure that's us tho. He's a big target for sure, just has dropsies. He also faced Big-12 competition, which while power-5 competition still isn't noted for being a defensive conference. Not as bad as the PAC-12, but probably the next worst. Otherwise I can't explain it to you, those are only my thoughts. I will say that it fits right in line with what I said above. Edited June 12, 2019 by Ronin
4merper4mer Posted June 12, 2019 Posted June 12, 2019 (edited) 46 minutes ago, Ronin said: I'll restate the point; People that get paid to analyze draftees do an incomplete job. Narratives rule despite their veracity. People getting paid to rate players said that all of the above would be great. None, Oliver pending, were. Why not? Again, my reasoning is in the post that you cited. Why did everyone have them rated so high? I didn't, but again, I explained why. If you are asking for MO on why, I would say that I would have taken a WR like Sills over a WR like Jones any day of the week. I went thru why. I said at the time that Jones was a 4th/5th round prospect, not what the analysts said. I can't speak for anyone else, only myself. That's why I thought that not taking Smith-Shuster at that time was a mistake. Do I think that Sills is going to light things up in the NFL, no. But much like I criticized the pick of James Hardy back then (round 2) and stated that I expected Stevie Johnson (round 7) to be better, while stating that Hardy would be a bust, which he was, and got laughed at I might as well add, so too, I think that Sills will probably perform better as well as over a longer period of time than Jones will. Not to the same delta extent as Hardy/Stevie, just sayin', in general. I don't think that Jones will be on the team next season and it wouldn't surprise me if he gets cut if a WR like Sills comes on. The top reasons on my list as to why he was not drafted, which is a bit surprising, are probably because of what I already mentioned about him, and per his draft-profile at nfl.com, which states; Disappointing amount of drops this year Fastballs ate him up and he had issues with contested catches Just 55 percent of throws his way were completed Those are pretty important things to have as negatives, especially considering that Allen's a fastball QB. As well, did you see his 40-time? ... compare it to other WRs in his class? I mean if you don't look at these things than you cannot really criticize others that don't. He's a bit slow. Big WR with good hands apparently, but not the fastest and not the best in traffic. Still, I have absolutely no idea why he went undrafted. I'd rate him as a 3rd or 4th round prospect. He was Grier's top target and led the team in yards, catches, and TDs, and in 2017 he again led the team in TDs. I pointed out elsewhere that he scored a TD every 4 catches or so. Jones was closer to one every 20 in college and was one nearly every 10 here. He was a great pick-up and frankly, I would have drafted him over any of the players we drafted on day 3, especially since we were in dire need of WRs. I'm a big Miami (Canes) fan and I don't see Jaquan Johnson making that much of an impact. Not to mention that we really didn't need another S. I can see Sills being a consistent 700-800 yard/8 TD WR on the right team, not sure that's us tho. He's a big target for sure, just has dropsies. He also faced Big-12 competition, which while power-5 competition still isn't noted for being a defensive conference. Not as bad as the PAC-12, but probably the next worst. Otherwise I can't explain it to you, those are only my thoughts. I will say that it fits right in line with what I said above. And you gave me the Googly eyes emoji? To be fair, let me elaborate. Wrt Jones it may have just been the Bills that saw him that high or it may have been some other teams as well. It is not completely unreasonable to puff out your chest and say you got it right. It seems a little arrogant but what vet. Sills was passed over by every team in the league for 7 rounds. You saw him as a 3/4. This means in rounds 5,6 and 7 he was a value every time. Counting comp picks that is over 100 chances 32 different professional organizations had to take him. You don't think it is a touch presumptuous to just assume your assessment was right? This doesn't mean he can't succeed. He may and I hope he does, but chances are that the TBD bandwagon on the whole is inferior to the combined NFL scouting organizations. It is not limited to some discussion about the Bills. Edited June 12, 2019 by 4merper4mer
Ronin Posted June 13, 2019 Posted June 13, 2019 8 hours ago, 4merper4mer said: And you gave me the Googly eyes emoji? To be fair, let me elaborate. Wrt Jones it may have just been the Bills that saw him that high or it may have been some other teams as well. It is not completely unreasonable to puff out your chest and say you got it right. It seems a little arrogant but what vet. Sills was passed over by every team in the league for 7 rounds. You saw him as a 3/4. This means in rounds 5,6 and 7 he was a value every time. Counting comp picks that is over 100 chances 32 different professional organizations had to take him. You don't think it is a touch presumptuous to just assume your assessment was right? This doesn't mean he can't succeed. He may and I hope he does, but chances are that the TBD bandwagon on the whole is inferior to the combined NFL scouting organizations. It is not limited to some discussion about the Bills. I don't think I gave you a googly eyes, did I? Otherwise, don't care about being right, not my gig. Care about having a good team, just don't see them doing it right at present. We'll know for sure this season, season 3 for them. Otherwise, you seem to be missing my points. I'm trying to explain methodologies in relation to your questions.
Da webster guy Posted June 15, 2019 Posted June 15, 2019 On 6/11/2019 at 11:32 PM, Mr. WEO said: Meh. I heard the same thing posted here by too many to count about Whaley/Nix. Turns out that....yes, they had no clue. And the fans knew all along who the correct picks were right? Same fans slammin the Hughes and Shady trades probably. It's complete b.s.
NewEra Posted June 16, 2019 Posted June 16, 2019 On 6/11/2019 at 7:19 PM, Ronin said: I wouldn't say far too many. There have been a bunch, but there have been a lot more that simply haven't lived up to their draft hype. One notable one, Torell Troup. There are many big-school DL-men that never live up, the odds of the small school ones isn't greater. Besides, this notion that because other players of similar backgrounds did something is hardly a reason as to why another player will or won't. My point is simply this, if a player like Oliver struggles against OL-men that don't even have a legitimate chance of getting drafted, and particularly against double-teams as is the knock on him, that can't possibly be an indicator that he'll succeed and do better against NFL caliber OL-men. Who would argue that it would, but that seems to be your argument. We'll see, perhaps "coaching" or whatever will make the difference, as I said, if I had a grand, I wouldn't bet it on the fact that it will happen. If others want to take personal offense at that, so be it. Doesn't bother me. I'm simply challenging narratives. Remember the narratives on Lawson and Ragland. All we heard was how Ragland should have been a 1st-rounder and what a steal we got. Yeah, a real steal. Anyone that knows college ball knows that Bama puts out more system players that never perform to expectations in the NFL than quite perhaps any other school. Just sayin'. That's what happens when you have a college team chock full of four and five star recruits, overall you're so much better than the other schools simply because you're solid at every single position including depth. Doesn't necessarily mean that they're all independently great. That was also the case with John McCargo. I said at the time of his drafting that A, his numbers weren't as impressive as they sounded, but because of the talent on his DL, particularly the DEs, Mario Williams and Manny Lawson, who allowed McCargo to play better, but he never posted great numbers at all. I never understood why he was considered a top prospect. It's wise to consider those things before drafting a player. I do, I have no idea why our front office never has. As to Oliver, we'll see. I hope I'm off. Either way, Beane & McD aren't going to survive here unless Allen makes a massive leap this season into the realm of the top-15 anyway. Agreed about bama players. So bama players aren’t good enough for the league because they just feed off each other and make each other look better than they are because teams have account for so many talented players, everyone has a chance to shine. What happens when you’re easily the best player on your team and in your conference? Teams game plan to stop you and sometimes only you. Sure, the opposition is less talented than the teams bama is playing but your teammates aren’t nearly as talented either. So the opposition schemes to stop you.....and your teammates suck as bad as your talentless opposition. So it’s up to you to be the difference maker and beat the scheme with one thing. Your talent and ability. Imo, most players that can dominate for several seasons while being the focal point of the oppositions game plan every week have a shot to succeed. I agree that playing vs lesser competition can make players look better than they are, I also believe that special players can be found at any school. It takes some players longer to develop the strength needed to be an elite talent. Some guys are big and fast in HS. Some guys are just fast in HS and don’t get recruited by the big schools because they’re too slight....and get the proper weight training when they get to college and blossom. Some big and fast guys have only played football for a year or so and have no idea how to play the game. They get offered by a small school, play the game and get coached for 4 more years. All of a sudden they’re great players. There are just so many variables to success. I think you’re pigeon holing small school players. Meanwhile also saying that big school players only succeed because they are playing along side other talented players......who aren’t really that talented because once they get to the nfl they aren’t good. I don’t get it.
Simon Says Posted June 16, 2019 Posted June 16, 2019 On 6/7/2019 at 11:56 AM, NewCastleFanBills said: Between Zay, Foster and Sills we may have to many good WRs and not enough spots. Sills has to actually make the 53 ,first
Ronin Posted June 16, 2019 Posted June 16, 2019 (edited) 8 hours ago, NewEra said: Agreed about bama players. So bama players aren’t good enough for the league because they just feed off each other and make each other look better than they are because teams have account for so many talented players, everyone has a chance to shine. What happens when you’re easily the best player on your team and in your conference? Teams game plan to stop you and sometimes only you. Sure, the opposition is less talented than the teams bama is playing but your teammates aren’t nearly as talented either. So the opposition schemes to stop you.....and your teammates suck as bad as your talentless opposition. So it’s up to you to be the difference maker and beat the scheme with one thing. Your talent and ability. Imo, most players that can dominate for several seasons while being the focal point of the oppositions game plan every week have a shot to succeed. I agree that playing vs lesser competition can make players look better than they are, I also believe that special players can be found at any school. It takes some players longer to develop the strength needed to be an elite talent. Some guys are big and fast in HS. Some guys are just fast in HS and don’t get recruited by the big schools because they’re too slight....and get the proper weight training when they get to college and blossom. Some big and fast guys have only played football for a year or so and have no idea how to play the game. They get offered by a small school, play the game and get coached for 4 more years. All of a sudden they’re great players. There are just so many variables to success. I think you’re pigeon holing small school players. Meanwhile also saying that big school players only succeed because they are playing along side other talented players......who aren’t really that talented because once they get to the nfl they aren’t good. I don’t get it. Well, you're putting words in my mouth. Those actually weren't my points exactly. As to Bama players, they have a history of LBs playing lights-out at Bama but sucking in the NFL. They have placed some great DL-men. RBs have been a similar issue to LBs. You have to look at the positions, history, etc. A lot of work goes into it, this isn't something you glean after a few moments of googling. Also, a historical knowledge builds up if you do it long enough. As to the small school, again, this is merely one thing to look at and consider, but I'll say it again and use Oliver as an example. It's a big mistake to look at how great he was against a team like Rice without any linemen on the team that even remotely have a legitimate shot in the NFL while ignoring what I call the "lowlight" reels. For example, against Texas Tech, and I've pointed this out already, Oliver went up against a lineman named Stawarz, who's finished now, he won't play in the NFL and never had a legitimate shot at it. On numerous plays in that game Stawarz held Oliver up one-on-one easily. No need to get into a prolonged discussion of that, and that's hardly the single example. But what I'm saying, is that upon seeing that and reviewing that, as any good draft analyst should have (did our team?), it should at least cause a little pause from the narrative, I mean wouldn't you think. So point being, obviously in a vacuum the "small school" element shouldn't be considered as the end-all-to-be-all indicator, but when, as in Oliver's case, he didn't face a single OL-man that was going to the NFL it should certainly be considered, and I would have looked at all the plays, not just highlights, as I always do. If others, including the professional draft guys and scouts, don't do so, then it's at their and their team's own risk. Similarly, when Jones does nothing significant for three seasons at EC, unlike his predecessor Justin Hardy (on Atlanta), but then in his Sr. season lights up crap teams, usually in garbage time, often in 4/5 WR sets in systems that simply aren't used in the NFL, but on top of that merely amasses production against the worst DBs in college ball, and just like the OL-men that Oliver has faced, then one should consider that. There are a gazillion receivers from small schools, even more from less-than FCS teams, that light up their stats but simply aren't NFL caliber. Despite people paying lipservice to the notion that the leap from college to pro ball is huge, I'm not sure that they realize exactly how great that leap is. When you funnel thousands of football players from college down to a couple hundred in the draft, then factor in that most of those won't succeed in the NFL, it should paint a pretty clear picture of that leap. Also, this narrative, now convenient for Jones, that it takes three seasons for a WR to develop, is nonsense. Look at Jones' draft peers, most of whom were behind him. 6 WRs drafted that season have more yards than he has and five of those players were drafted after him, three in the 3rd-round and one in the 4th. And remember Mike Williams from Clemson, drafted in the top-10? He's been a bust. Which reminds me, Clemson's offensive skill-position players typically don't step up either. I'm not sure that as Bills fans we really need to be reminded of that. Edited June 16, 2019 by Ronin
NewEra Posted June 16, 2019 Posted June 16, 2019 29 minutes ago, Ronin said: Well, you're putting words in my mouth. Those actually weren't my points exactly. As to Bama players, they have a history of LBs playing lights-out at Bama but sucking in the NFL. They have placed some great DL-men. RBs have been a similar issue to LBs. You have to look at the positions, history, etc. A lot of work goes into it, this isn't something you glean after a few moments of googling. Also, a historical knowledge builds up if you do it long enough. As to the small school, again, this is merely one thing to look at and consider, but I'll say it again and use Oliver as an example. It's a big mistake to look at how great he was against a team like Rice without any linemen on the team that even remotely have a legitimate shot in the NFL while ignoring what I call the "lowlight" reels. For example, against Texas Tech, and I've pointed this out already, Oliver went up against a lineman named Stawarz, who's finished now, he won't play in the NFL and never had a legitimate shot at it. On numerous plays in that game Stawarz held Oliver up one-on-one easily. No need to get into a prolonged discussion of that, and that's hardly the single example. But what I'm saying, is that upon seeing that and reviewing that, as any good draft analyst should have (did our team?), it should at least cause a little pause from the narrative, I mean wouldn't you think. So point being, obviously in a vacuum the "small school" element shouldn't be considered as the end-all-to-be-all indicator, but when, as in Oliver's case, he didn't face a single OL-man that was going to the NFL it should certainly be considered, and I would have looked at all the plays, not just highlights, as I always do. If others, including the professional draft guys and scouts, don't do so, then it's at their and their team's own risk. Similarly, when Jones does nothing significant for three seasons at EC, unlike his predecessor Justin Hardy (on Atlanta), but then in his Sr. season lights up crap teams, usually in garbage time, often in 4/5 WR sets in systems that simply aren't used in the NFL, but on top of that merely amasses production against the worst DBs in college ball, and just like the OL-men that Oliver has faced, then one should consider that. There are a gazillion receivers from small schools, even more from less-than FCS teams, that light up their stats but simply aren't NFL caliber. Despite people paying lipservice to the notion that the leap from college to pro ball is huge, I'm not sure that they realize exactly how great that leap is. When you funnel thousands of football players from college down to a couple hundred in the draft, then factor in that most of those won't succeed in the NFL, it should paint a pretty clear picture of that leap. Also, this narrative, now convenient for Jones, that it takes three seasons for a WR to develop, is nonsense. Look at Jones' draft peers, most of whom were behind him. 6 WRs drafted that season have more yards than he has and five of those players were drafted after him, three in the 3rd-round and one in the 4th. And remember Mike Williams from Clemson, drafted in the top-10? He's been a bust. Which reminds me, Clemson's offensive skill-position players typically don't step up either. I'm not sure that as Bills fans we really need to be reminded of that. Well put. On a couple notes though. I wouldn’t say Zay didn’t do anything significant for 3 seasons. Must a wr catch 158 balls and 10 TDs to be significant? As a junior, 98 catches and 80+ as a sophomore isn’t too shabby imo. Also regarding WRs taking 3 years to develop....:everyone is different. For every WR in the nfl is a different person. Not just athletically, but mentally. Who did we have to help Zay along the way? He watched Kevin Benjamin for 1.5 season and Jordan Matthews for .5 seasons prepare as professionals. He had no one to mentor him. Not every you WR needs mentoring, but in many cases, good vets have a profound effect on a young player. Juju had HOFers Big Ben throwing to him and AB to mentor him and just be there for him to watch. To see how he prepares. It matters. I’m not saying Zay would be = to juju after two years, as every kid is different, but I promise you, We wouldn’t be talking about Juju being the next big thing after two years with our QBs, OL and passing offense. Regarding oliver. Do you think our scouts and gms watched Oliver’s game tapes? Just highlights? Do you think all the analysts that pegged him a top 10 pick watched his game tape? Just highlights? Regarding Mike Williams, do you remember Deandre Hopkins?
Ronin Posted June 16, 2019 Posted June 16, 2019 (edited) 5 hours ago, NewEra said: Well put. On a couple notes though. I wouldn’t say Zay didn’t do anything significant for 3 seasons. Must a wr catch 158 balls and 10 TDs to be significant? As a junior, 98 catches and 80+ as a sophomore isn’t too shabby imo. Also regarding WRs taking 3 years to develop....:everyone is different. For every WR in the nfl is a different person. Not just athletically, but mentally. Who did we have to help Zay along the way? He watched Kevin Benjamin for 1.5 season and Jordan Matthews for .5 seasons prepare as professionals. He had no one to mentor him. Not every you WR needs mentoring, but in many cases, good vets have a profound effect on a young player. Juju had HOFers Big Ben throwing to him and AB to mentor him and just be there for him to watch. To see how he prepares. It matters. I’m not saying Zay would be = to juju after two years, as every kid is different, but I promise you, We wouldn’t be talking about Juju being the next big thing after two years with our QBs, OL and passing offense. Regarding oliver. Do you think our scouts and gms watched Oliver’s game tapes? Just highlights? Do you think all the analysts that pegged him a top 10 pick watched his game tape? Just highlights? Regarding Mike Williams, do you remember Deandre Hopkins? As to what Jones did at EC in his first three seasons, but you have to consider that he was at EC. At OSU, Miami, Bama, Clemson, ND, etc., those numbers would have been great. But contrasted with what Hardy did it's relatively insignificant. Here are Hardy's numbers, as I've said, three of Hardy's seasons were all better, individually, than all three of Jones' first seasons. This is entirely relevant when you consider how Hardy's played in the NFL coupled with the things I've pointed out that we've been discussing. <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/justin-hardy-1.html"> One also has to be highly concerned, and it has ramifications, that Jones simply didn't convert yards and catches to points. I mean you would think that his record-breaking season wouldn't have ranked near the bottom in terms of point production, namely the goal in football. And why it didn't definitely should be/have-been looked at. His senior season, only one game w/ more than 1 TD, a 2 TD performance against Navy. Hardly impressive. In five games, three of which were against the only power-5 teams he played, a combined 57 catches for 508 yards and 0 TDs. That's not good. As to the three years, yes, everyone is different, but my point was that it obviously does not take, as a rule, as a narrative has been formed here, 3 years for a WR to develop, at least not to the extent that he's a viable contributing WR and #1. Hell, even last year's draft produced 9 WRs that produced more yards in their rookies season than Jones did, 7 of whom were drafted after where Jones was, three of which were on day 3. 11 posted equal to or more TDs than Jones did in his rookie season. Even more than that, three from last year's draft, the one after Jones, had more yards in their rookie seasons than Jones had in his second season. Three more came within 100-yards of him. Of those 6, four were drafted after where Jones was. Let's face it, he wasn't worth the 37th overall. The team botched. I can't tell you what our team's people watched and saw or didn't see. I can tell you that I don't think that too many people analyze things like I do, much of which you aren't even aware of. Regarding Mike Williams, do you remember Deandre Hopkins? Why wouldn't I remember him? He's still in the league. I see absolutely no comparison however. Hopkins put up more yards in his rookie season than Williams has in both of his first two seasons combined. Williams will have to put up over 2,700 receiving yards this season if he's going to match Hopkins' first-three-year total. There's no serious person out there that will tell you that Williams was worth the 7th overall pick. No one can argue that Hopkins had a better QB either. Rivers is far more seasoned than Watson. In fact, Houston would have been better off having taken McCaffrey, taken the pick after Williams. He's got exactly twice as many receiving yards, as a RB, than Williams has, and one more receiving TD on top of nearly just as many rushing TDs and just as many yards rushing. Hell, Jones has outperformed Williams. Edited June 16, 2019 by Ronin
NewEra Posted June 17, 2019 Posted June 17, 2019 3 hours ago, Ronin said: As to what Jones did at EC in his first three seasons, but you have to consider that he was at EC. At OSU, Miami, Bama, Clemson, ND, etc., those numbers would have been great. But contrasted with what Hardy did it's relatively insignificant. Here are Hardy's numbers, as I've said, three of Hardy's seasons were all better, individually, than all three of Jones' first seasons. This is entirely relevant when you consider how Hardy's played in the NFL coupled with the things I've pointed out that we've been discussing. <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/justin-hardy-1.html"> One also has to be highly concerned, and it has ramifications, that Jones simply didn't convert yards and catches to points. I mean you would think that his record-breaking season wouldn't have ranked near the bottom in terms of point production, namely the goal in football. And why it didn't definitely should be/have-been looked at. His senior season, only one game w/ more than 1 TD, a 2 TD performance against Navy. Hardly impressive. In five games, three of which were against the only power-5 teams he played, a combined 57 catches for 508 yards and 0 TDs. That's not good. As to the three years, yes, everyone is different, but my point was that it obviously does not take, as a rule, as a narrative has been formed here, 3 years for a WR to develop, at least not to the extent that he's a viable contributing WR and #1. Hell, even last year's draft produced 9 WRs that produced more yards in their rookies season than Jones did, 7 of whom were drafted after where Jones was, three of which were on day 3. 11 posted equal to or more TDs than Jones did in his rookie season. Even more than that, three from last year's draft, the one after Jones, had more yards in their rookie seasons than Jones had in his second season. Three more came within 100-yards of him. Of those 6, four were drafted after where Jones was. Let's face it, he wasn't worth the 37th overall. The team botched. I can't tell you what our team's people watched and saw or didn't see. I can tell you that I don't think that too many people analyze things like I do, much of which you aren't even aware of. Regarding Mike Williams, do you remember Deandre Hopkins? Why wouldn't I remember him? He's still in the league. I see absolutely no comparison however. Hopkins put up more yards in his rookie season than Williams has in both of his first two seasons combined. Williams will have to put up over 2,700 receiving yards this season if he's going to match Hopkins' first-three-year total. There's no serious person out there that will tell you that Williams was worth the 7th overall pick. No one can argue that Hopkins had a better QB either. Rivers is far more seasoned than Watson. In fact, Houston would have been better off having taken McCaffrey, taken the pick after Williams. He's got exactly twice as many receiving yards, as a RB, than Williams has, and one more receiving TD on top of nearly just as many rushing TDs and just as many yards rushing. Hell, Jones has outperformed Williams. Mike Williams: completely comparable in context. “And remember Mike Williams from Clemson, drafted in the top-10? He's been a bust. Which reminds me, Clemson's offensive skill-position players typically don't step up either. I'm not sure that as Bills fans we really need to be reminded of that.” Deandre Hopkins and Adam Humphries have stepped it up. Mike Williams, who I believe was waaaaay over drafted, missed TC and 6 games his rookie year. Last year he caught 10 TDs and was playing behind 2 11mill+ a year WRs. Before we call him a bust. Let him play his third season. Last year I thought he was effective while not living up to his draft position. He was drafted to score TDs. He did that. They have Keenan Allen and Melvin. Gordon to move the chains. His context in this convo had to do with players excelling in college due to playing for great teams loaded with talent that allowed them to reap the benefits of playing with great talent. Hopkins was in the same exact position imo. You talk about rivers and Watson being Williams and Hopkins QBs.....who did Zay have throwing him the ball the last 2 seasons? You really are playing both sides of the fence. You’ll word things to seem like you aren’t, but you most definitely are. Comparing him to mccaffery is just stupid btw. You think he’d put up those numbers in SD? Seriously, I’d love to hear the answer to this. Ill read your your comment and bow out. I think you’re very knowledgeable about the subject. I just think you’re being very matter of fact. Very black and white in a subject that is very grey.
Ronin Posted June 17, 2019 Posted June 17, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, NewEra said: 1 hour ago, NewEra said: Mike Williams: completely comparable in context. “Andmember Mike Williams from Clemson, drafted in the top-10? He's been a bust. Which reminds me, Clemson's offensive skill-position players typically don't step up either. I'm not sure that as Bills fans we really need to be reminded of that.” Deandre Hopkins and Adam Humphries have stepped it up. Mike Williams, who I believe was waaaaay over drafted, missed TC and 6 games his rookie year. Last year he caught 10 TDs and was playing behind 2 11mill+ a year WRs. Before we call him a bust. Let him play his third season. Last year I thought he was effective while not living up to his draft position. He was drafted to score TDs. He did that. They have Keenan Allen and Melvin. Gordon to move the chains. His context in this convo had to do with players excelling in college due to playing for great teams loaded with talent that allowed them to reap the benefits of playing with great talent. Hopkins was in the same exact position imo. You talk about rivers and Watson being Williams and Hopkins QBs.....who did Zay have throwing him the ball the last 2 seasons? You really are playing both sides of the fence. You’ll word things to seem like you aren’t, but you most definitely are. Comparing him to mccaffery is just stupid btw. You think he’d put up those numbers in SD? Seriously, I’d love to hear the answer to this. Ill read your your comment and bow out. I think you’re very knowledgeable about the subject. I just think you’re being very matter of fact. Very black and white in a subject that is very grey. You're using exceptions. I didn't say categorically about Clemson offensive SP players, I said typically. Spiller and Watkins are two that come to mind. Here's a list however; https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=2010&year_max=2019&draft_round_min=1&draft_round_max=3&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&pick_type=overall&pos[]=qb&pos[]=rb&pos[]=wr&pos[]=te&college_id=clemson&conference=any&show=all&order_by=default As you can see, over the past ten drafts, 6 Clemson offensive skill-position players have been drafted in rounds 1-3, five of them in round 1, four of them among the first 12 picks. Only 2 of the 6 have worked out. So yes, typically. You can always find exceptions, I pay little credence to exceptions in analyzing. I don't think anyone would spend the 7th overall, or even close, on Williams again seeing what they've seen. So there's that. Your assertion/implication that they didn't need Williams because they have Gordon and Allen is what's ridiculous. So with Hill and Hunt, why did Kelce have so many yards? Or how about Woods & Cooks with Gurley? Makes no sense. You always make full use of all of your options. It's a ridiculous proposition to assert otherwise. Same for Pitt and Smith-Shuster and Brown, or Minnesota and Thielen and Diggs. As to Jones, he wasn't in on the comparison. I think Jones' play, or lack thereof, speaks for itself. I merely entered him into the equation to show Williams has done relative to a WR that's also massively underachieved yet still w/o the expecations coming in. As to McCaffrey, doesn't matter, point being that they could have taken McCaffrey and done better, a RB. Doesn't say much for Williams, does it? Short answer, no, no it doesn't. Williams has played in 26 games and averaged fewer than 30 ypg receiving. McCaffrey's averaged over 47 ypg receiving in 32 games. And please, you're telling me that if SD had the opportunity right now to swap out McCaffrey for Williams that they wouldn't do it? Hell, I'd do that on McCaffrey's receiving alone. Doesn't say much for a wide receiver's numbers when a RB outperforms him, does it. In fact, 15 players, or half-a-round, from Williams' draft, have more receiving yards than he has. Of those 15, 7 are WRs, 4 are TEs, and the other 4 are RBs. Among them are five 3rds, two 4ths, and a 5th rounder. 20 players from that draft have more receptions than Williams. I figured that McCaffrey would be a Roger Craig type, good but not great rusher but also a great receiver OOTB, figuring that he'd settle in at ~ 1,600 or so in YFS. 800-1,000 (max) rushing and 600-700 receiving. He's been better than that, so while my estimation was semi-lofty he outperformed that. If we'd have gotten that from Spiller I'd have loved it. I've always maintained, for years, decades, that it's never worth taking a WR early in the draft, ever, much less trading up to get one. Good WRs in a league that makes it very easy to pass the ball are readily available in rounds 2 and 3 easily and often even later. I would never, under any circumstances, draft a WR in the top-10. I'd be hard pressed to draft one prior to the 15-20 range. There are too many positions, DE, OT, QB, MLB, OLB, CB, whereby there really is a huge delta in their level of talent, again, generally speaking from draft to draft. The draft, IMO and by my strategy, is all about marginal utility. If by waiting on a OT you drop from a shoe-in to a hopeful in order to get a WR whereby you can get a comparable WR with your next pick, you've gotta go for the OT. You'll get far better overall value in your draft. The problem is that GMs don't draft well, create for themselves a hole, whereby they "have to" draft a certain position for whatever reason. Like when Whaley had to reach for Watkins to justify his pick of Manuel. There was a conflict of interests there. Whaley's job security on one hand, team interests and team building on the other. The latter lost out. But that's what happens when you have nimrods in charge. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=2000&year_max=2019&draft_round_min=1&draft_round_max=3&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&pick_type=overall&pos[]=wr&conference=any&show=all&order_by=default Of the top 12 WRs drafted over the past 20 years, 8 were selected with picks ranging from 27th to 74th (midway thru the 3rd round) overall. The four exceptions are Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, and Julio Jones. Edited June 17, 2019 by Ronin 1
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