Zay Jones is Bills' most likely player to emerge on offense

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Zay seems like a player without a position. He is not quick enough for the slot and not fast enough or big enough to be a true #1.  Also he doesn't add any special teams help.

I think Brown/Foster compete for speed guy, Beasley is the slot, and that leaves Zay and Duke Williams. Foster has shown enough to keep and he is super cheap. So then it comes down to Zay and Duke. Both have had off field issues but appear to have moved on. Duke seems more explosive and Zay more versatile. 

Honestly and sadly, if Zay just caught the dam ball he would be a lock.

[Saxum]

On 6/9/2019 at 12:18 PM, Rocky Landing said:

Or, perhaps I could ignore all context, throw out one incomplete stat, and declare that Sills is a better NFL QB than Zay Jones.

 

It took you a while but you finally got it!

[Saxum]

22 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

That being said, at this point, I believe that he not only improved during the 2018 offseason, which was immediately evident at the outset of last season, I believe that he improved throughout last season. And I am not alone. I don't think I am saying anything particularly controversial. Zones had more targets last season than any other WR on the team, right up until week 17. I also think he just might be our most versatile WR, which, IMO, could make him our most valuable #2. 

 

This issue was partially coaching.  You did not see any evolution of his game the first year for he was being coached by his college coach and his reputation from NFL players who had him as coach were not good.  He recommended Zay and at end of season was canned.  Hopefully this is a sign current coach is better; at least one of the UDFAs choose Buffalo due to coach but that is not much different than Zay's position other than he could have deliberately tanked interview if he did not want to go to Buffalo.

[3rdand12]

4 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I think so to and honestly that is not a bad thing.....an unfortunate injury and we have some talent ready to be brought up.

Could we (gasp) actually have a decent WR core?

 

Unless Robert Foster takes that next step and becomes a legit  number one I see a bunch of "good" talent.......I will take that.

 a bunch of good talent works for me as well.

tis an improvement eh ? 

 : )

[3rdand12]

and it is okay to be excited about rookies, UDFA and all the above.
 Let us revisit this discussion during TC.

 Love me some WR competition !

and super glad Bills got a new WR Coach !!

[Patrick Duffy]

6 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

and it is okay to be excited about rookies, UDFA and all the above.
 Let us revisit this discussion during TC.

 Love me some WR competition !

and super glad Bills got a new WR Coach !!

 

Agreed. And looking forward to the Oline competition as well. Very interested to see how that unfolds.

[Socal-805]

 

 

Hmm, interesting.

 

when you say "emerge", you mean "STOP SUCKING"?

 

 

[4BillsintheBurgh]

Eh, I'll go with Singletary. Our backfield might be revolving around him by the end of the year, and I think we will be running the ball a lot more than throwing it. Zay will have a tougher time getting targets with the other options on the field and Singletary might end up the healthiest back pretty quickly.

[3rdand12]

53 minutes ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

 

Agreed. And looking forward to the Oline competition as well. Very interested to see how that unfolds.

The newish Offense will be taking shape before our very eyes. this is the first year Beane invested in Daboll.

fairly exciting for a fan like me.

Allen will have a more in depth grasp and larger playbook.
spot on about O line

 For me that is even more important Bills have revamped recreated the O line. as mentioned .. plenty of "good"  receivers might get the job done.

 

Any thoughts on tailbacks ? I see positives and potential there as well 

[3rdand12]

8 minutes ago, 4BillsintheBurgh said:

Eh, I'll go with Singletary. Our backfield might be revolving around him by the end of the year, and I think we will be running the ball a lot more than throwing it. Zay will have a tougher time getting targets with the other options on the field and Singletary might end up the healthiest back pretty quickly.

If we are running the ball successfully for a change ? Pass catchers might be the beneficiaries. Beasley and Jones might have some fun this year running under and around zone cover if hey can run.
btw i can easily envision Shady and the HoF''r having some highlight reels with Devin to spell when D gets tired.
very positive out look from here

[Ronin]

On 6/9/2019 at 12:18 PM, Rocky Landing said:

Perhaps I could just throw out Jones' catch percentages for his last two games, (55.6%, and 66.7%, respectively) and proclaim that he improved towards the end of the season?

Perhaps I could cite his catch percentage in the Jets game (with Barkley throwing him the ball) of 72.7%, and his following game's percentage of 0.0% (only one target), and proclaim him WILDLY INCONSISTENT.

Perhaps I could cite his actually drop percentage (slightly under 3%-- lower than most of the top receivers in the 2018 league, btw), and declare that he is the second coming of Jerry Rice.

Perhaps I could cite how much different his numbers were when he was facing different defenses, or had different QBs throwing him the ball. 

Or, perhaps I could ignore all context, throw out one incomplete stat, and declare that Sills is a better NFL QB than Zay Jones.

 

You can do whatever you want.  Everyone else does.  

 

If that's a defense of Jones however, it's pretty pathetic.  

[Ronin]

On 6/9/2019 at 12:18 PM, Rocky Landing said:

You're seriously putting Jones' career catch percentage (without one iota of context), comparing it to Sills college percentage, and drawing a conclusion?

 

THAT is a bizarre, and silly numbers game, there. 

 

Perhaps I could just throw out Jones' catch percentages for his last two games, (55.6%, and 66.7%, respectively) and proclaim that he improved towards the end of the season?

Perhaps I could cite his catch percentage in the Jets game (with Barkley throwing him the ball) of 72.7%, and his following game's percentage of 0.0% (only one target), and proclaim him WILDLY INCONSISTENT.

Perhaps I could cite his actually drop percentage (slightly under 3%-- lower than most of the top receivers in the 2018 league, btw), and declare that he is the second coming of Jerry Rice.

Perhaps I could cite how much different his numbers were when he was facing different defenses, or had different QBs throwing him the ball. 

Or, perhaps I could ignore all context, throw out one incomplete stat, and declare that Sills is a better NFL QB than Zay Jones.

 

Ignore all context?  You serious?  LOL  What you seem to have done there is to ignore anything that doesn't suit you.  And after all, we know that only Jones played against tough Ds, none of the other WRs in the league did, in fact, none of the other WRs on our team did either apparently.  Good humor.  It's always fun reading here.  Particularly as the season progresses.  

 

BTW, you are aware that Jones ranks among the worst in the NFL in catch%, aren't you?  

 

If not, you may want to add that to your repertoire of whatever it is you just said there.  

 

He improved notably from '17 to '18, yet last season ('18) he ranked 176th (out of 202) in catch%.  Up from 210th (out of 212) in '17.   A whole lot of people here don't seem to think that that's relevant.  

 

As to Sills, I think it' speaks, screams actually, volumes that Sills put up a TD for every 3.8 catches.  Whereas Jones put up a TD in one of every 17.3 catches.  Have fun with that one.  

 

Sills put up a TD for every 60 receiving yards, Jones put up on for every 186, over three times as many, and the competition that Jones' faced isn't even worth mentioning in the same breath as that which Sills faced in the Big 12.  

 

Sills scored a TD in 68% (over two-thirds) of his games.  Jones scored a TD in 41%.  

 

Jones was one of the most overrated WRs to be drafted in years. 

Edited June 11, 2019 by Ronin

[LSHMEAB]

2 hours ago, 4BillsintheBurgh said:

Eh, I'll go with Singletary. Our backfield might be revolving around him by the end of the year, and I think we will be running the ball a lot more than throwing it. Zay will have a tougher time getting targets with the other options on the field and Singletary might end up the healthiest back pretty quickly.

Ah. Yes. Slipped my mind. If Singletary is the real deal, he's definitely a top candidate. 

[Rocky Landing]

31 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

Ignore all context?  You serious?  LOL  What you seem to have done there is to ignore anything that doesn't suit you.  And after all, we know that only Jones played against tough Ds, none of the other WRs in the league did, in fact, none of the other WRs on our team did either apparently.  Good humor.  It's always fun reading here.  Particularly as the season progresses.  

 

BTW, you are aware that Jones ranks among the worst in the NFL in catch%, aren't you?  

 

If not, you may want to add that to your repertoire of whatever it is you just said there.  

 

He improved notably from '17 to '18, yet last season ('18) he ranked 176th (out of 202) in catch%.  Up from 210th (out of 212) in '17.   A whole lot of people here don't seem to think that that's relevant.  

 

As to Sills, I think it' speaks, screams actually, volumes that Sills put up a TD for every 3.8 catches.  Whereas Jones put up a TD in one of every 17.3 catches.  Have fun with that one.  

 

Sills put up a TD for every 60 receiving yards, Jones put up on for every 186, over three times as many, and the competition that Jones' faced isn't even worth mentioning in the same breath as that which Sills faced in the Big 12.  

 

Sills scored a TD in 68% (over two-thirds) of his games.  Jones scored a TD in 41%.  

 

Jones was one of the most overrated WRs to be drafted in years. 

The weirdest thing about this post is that it was written without a shred of irony.

 

Yes, context. 

Yes, I am aware of Zay Jones' catch percentage. I'm also aware of his drop rate. I'm also aware of all the other things that provide context to such stats.

But, all the other things you point out in this post? They also provide context. Don't try to hit me with some straw-man argument that I am some die-hard Zay Jones fan trying to pump him up to something greater than the sum of his parts. I'm not. Nor am I going to ignore all of the things about Sills that you are pointing out. And that's what makes posts like yours so useless. In the same post that you accuse me of "ignoring anything that doesn't suit me," (i'm not) you utterly ignore anything that doesn't suit your crusade.

It's exhausting, and an utter waste of time.

[4BillsintheBurgh]

2 hours ago, 3rdand12 said:

If we are running the ball successfully for a change ? Pass catchers might be the beneficiaries. Beasley and Jones might have some fun this year running under and around zone cover if hey can run.
btw i can easily envision Shady and the HoF''r having some highlight reels with Devin to spell when D gets tired.
very positive out look from here

With the influx of meat eaters this year, we better be running it successfully. I will not be surprised given the olders guys' contract situations if Singletary gets in there he may get the lions share in the second half of the season.

 

My outlook isn't so rosy this year in general, I see a lot of new faces that have to get in sync, a quarterback that still needs time to develop and I still need to see Beane bring in some useful FA's for the offense. Seems like he has done the last bit, but the proof will be during the season and if the offense is still bottom part of the league that's not helping his professional resume given the amount of effort and money he spent.

 

Overall I'm bullish, but the first half of the year might be an adventure. I am really hoping McDermott can cut down on all the penalties this year, for me that will help josh and the whole offense function more effectively.

[Ronin]

5 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Ah. Yes. Slipped my mind. If Singletary is the real deal, he's definitely a top candidate. 

 

I don't know why our staff is obsessed with small-school players at the top of the draft on days 1 and 2.  Jones, Allen, Oliver, and Singletary.  That's four of our 10 day 1/2 picks on their watch, which doesn't include the extra day 1/2 picks traded to get Allen.  

 

Singletary as I see it is the RB version of Zay Jones.  

 

Gawdy numbers against nothing competition.  Of his 22 TDs, 5 were against Bethune-Cookman this past season, a whipping-boy team, which is about as nothing a team as an FBS team can play.  They're an FCS team that has seen a mere two of its players drafted since 2000, both DBs, in 2003 and 2005.  

 

If I wanted to gather some insight as to how he might play in the NFL I'd take a strong look at his splits and how he played against the ACC, Big Ten, and Big 12, the only power-5 schools that he played.  

 

He had 44 carries for 162 yards (3.68 YPC) and two TDs in three games for an average of 15 carries, 54 yards, and less than a TD/game.  That's a far-cry from his 6.0 YPC average overall and his 6.15 YPC otherwise.  I have a difficult time believing that he's going to excel in the NFL, especially when I read things like this in his draft profile at nfl.com; 

 

• Play speed tends to be monotone throughout the rep
• Rarely keeps runs play-side and looks for early cuts
• Excessive cuts will be met with earlier tackles from swarming, NFL defenders
• Will need to learn to run a more disciplined track
• Tendency is to bounce it to his left

Even reminds me of that RB we used to have that used to dance around in the backfield, was it Bryson?  Those to me are worrisome issues and not something that seems destined for NFL greatness.  They're difficult things to coach in if they can be at all.  As a three-down RB I simply don't see it.  What I can see is him possibly becoming a good receiver out of the backfield as a role-player ala Darren Sproles.  I'm not at all a big fan of Bama RBs, but in this case, and if they really had to have a RB here, I'd have taken Damien Harris.  I don't see him being great either but I do see him being better than the diminutive Singletary.  

 

Here's the thing, if Singletary does develop on this team as a receiver it'll be half a miracle since we ranked 31st in Yards-After-the-Catch last season.  The reason is clear, that Allen's always looking deep for the big plays that he overlooks the high-percentage gimme stuff underneath.  McCoy averaged fewer than 15 receiving yards-per-game last season with Allen as the QB.  Ivory averged just over that, for about 30 recvg. ypg and fewer than 3 catches/game between 'em.  None of the other RBs did anything significant in the receiving game.  So I'm not sure how that translates to Singletary doing much as a receiver OOTB.  

 

That's what the staff is going to have to do to fix Allen, is get him to throw more dump-offs and high-percentage passes where he lacks touch as well.  If they can do that I will be impressed.  

 

We'll see tho, this time of year hope abounds.  

 

 

 

[LSHMEAB]

15 minutes ago, Ronin said:

 

I don't know why our staff is obsessed with small-school players at the top of the draft on days 1 and 2.  Jones, Allen, Oliver, and Singletary.  That's four of our 10 day 1/2 picks on their watch, which doesn't include the extra day 1/2 picks traded to get Allen.  

 

Singletary as I see it is the RB version of Zay Jones.  

 

 

 

 

I hope you're wrong, but I fear you're right. The measurables are a huge concern, but I do like that he has a nose for the endzone. The dream scenario is a Travis Henry like impact. I didn't like the pick, but time will tell as they as. 

 

With RB's, you generally know right away what you have, so he certainly has a chance to breakout. If he's the real deal, he shouldn't have any problem taking carries from Gore/McCoy.

Edited June 11, 2019 by LSHMEAB

[Ronin]

1 hour ago, Rocky Landing said:

The weirdest thing about this post is that it was written without a shred of irony.

 

Yes, context. 

Yes, I am aware of Zay Jones' catch percentage. I'm also aware of his drop rate. I'm also aware of all the other things that provide context to such stats.

But, all the other things you point out in this post? They also provide context. Don't try to hit me with some straw-man argument that I am some die-hard Zay Jones fan trying to pump him up to something greater than the sum of his parts. I'm not. Nor am I going to ignore all of the things about Sills that you are pointing out. And that's what makes posts like yours so useless. In the same post that you accuse me of "ignoring anything that doesn't suit me," (i'm not) you utterly ignore anything that doesn't suit your crusade.

It's exhausting, and an utter waste of time.

 

You seem confused.  

 

What's exhausting is watching and listening to people such as yourself defend what our FO does despite any indications that they may not be doing the right things to build a team, and having this go on for 20 years.  Then, at the end of a season like this one everyone wants to drop nukes on OBD.  It's beyond comical.  

 

So if you want to talk about "crusades," try not hitting up one of the few people actually calling a spade a proverbial spade simply because you don't like it much less agree with it.  That's a crusade, having to listen to pep rallies until it's obviously to a drunken sot what predictable realities really are.  

 

NFL history provides a wealth of data, information, patterns, and trends.  Unfortunately most fans around the NFL prefer to be blind to those things.  Those that heed them are labeled, in mob-rule crusade fashion.  So if you want to talk about crusades, try starting there.  

 

It never ceases to amaze me how so many people have so little emotional control that even simple arguments turn them into raving lunatics.  

 

I mean people talk about Singletary as if diminutive small school RBs come to the NFL all the time and light it up when that rarely happens.  It doesn't happen, the opposite happens, and there are a large number of reasons for it, reasons that people ignore.  

 

You can believe whatever you want to, which most people here and elsewhere do anyway preferring the "ignorance is bliss" route.  Your points were about Jones, but it's the same thing.  I can't believe that anyone really thinks at this point that Jones is or ever will be anything but a 3rd or 4th WR in the future, here or anywhere. 

 

But in order to have a rational discussion, which so few here seem to want to do as this place is far more a place to hold perpetual pep-rallies, one simply cannot take that ignorance is bliss approach.  

 

Still, I have no idea what your overall point is, you haven't even approached making it clear other than to make it clear that no matter what I say you'll have an issue with it.  

 

Again, "crusade," ... start there.  

 

Anyway, goodbye.  If I don't respond to you henceforth it's because I'm not seeing your posts.  Don't take it the wrong way, I just don't want to see your posts anymore.  I have neither the time nor the inclination to figure out what, specifically, the point you are trying to make is.  LOL  

Edited June 11, 2019 by Ronin

[Ronin]

4 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I hope you're wrong, but I fear you're right. The measurables are a huge concern, but I do like that he has a nose for the endzone. The dream scenario is a Travis Henry like impact. I didn't like the pick, but time will tell as they as. 

 

I hope I'm wrong too, but there's no way that his rushing impact is like Henry's.  There's absolutely nothing in his draft profile that even hints at that.  Henry was a much bigger RB too.  

 

Here's the thing, if you're going to be a diminutive rusher in the NFL, you'd better have speed.  I've watched his highlight reels and that speed simply isn't there.  It's just not.  He's regularly caught by players that weren't even the fastest in college and I doubt any of them will even make the NFL as starters. He doesn't have anywhere close to enough corner speed to beat NFL edge guys.  I pointed out his stats against the three power-5 teams, against which he had only two TDs.  Well the Oklahoma TD was in an absolute rout and came at the end of the game against OU's third string.  It was irrelevant.  The other was a 1-yard run in an otherwise completely lackluster performance with negative receiving yards.  

 

I'm also not the only one to notice his speed issue.  nfl.com's draft profile says this;  

• Lacks top-end speed to run away from opponents in space

That much is clear from watching him.  Keep in mind, that's not against Clemson, Bama, and OSU, it's against largely teams with no defense in the CUSA otherwise.  So it seems highly unlikely that'll change with the bump up to the NFL where many linemen will be faster than the LBs and DBs that he saw in college.  

 

Anyway, he was a 4th (at best) or 5th round prospect by most and there were a slew of comparable RBs left on the board.  I don't think that it was a wise use of a draft pick at that spot much less an efficient one.  The people that want to think that he's the next Shady or whomever should do so while they still can.  

 

Here's the other thing, if Singletary does excel in the receiving game I have a very difficult time believing that it's going to be under a QB that all but ignored his RBs out of the backfield last year and was easily by far and away the worst QB in the entire league in that way.  It simply makes no sense for that to happen.  I mean honestly, so many things have to happen for that to be the case that it's unreasonable to think that they all will.   That's the primary problem with Allen, in college too, he tries to be superman, doing it all himself, either heaving deep balls or running.  You've gotta understand as a QB that you need to rely on the rest of your team and utilize them to the max degree.  He's far from that and has never done that.  But if Singletary is going to make a splash as a receiver, Allen's going to have to change colors.  

 

The closer and closer we get to the season the more and more I'm starting to be interested in the progression in this forum from September to December.  I have a strong hunch that we're going to go from how Beane is finally a GM that "gets it" alongside McD knowing what he's doing, to being all but burned at the stake with everyone wanting to burn down OBD and send the Pegulas packing.  LOL  

 

I sincerely hope that's not the case, I hope that Allen makes corrections that no other QB has made before with the ultimate success, I hope that our 2nd-rate starting WRs play well above their heads, that Knox is that diamond in the rough that everyone's hoping for, that what is an average OL according to PFF's ratings actually plays better than that, the McCoy's age doesn't do to him what it does to just about every RB at 31, that Gore still has something left at 37, that Singletary otherwise steps in to replace what he and Shady once were, that Oliver, who rarely beats double-teams and often struggled against OL-men that won't be playing anywhere this fall steps up and as a diminutive DT that played inferior competition that has no chance of ever making it to the NFL does so in the NFL, then on defense to have a defense that ranked 30th in the red zone will make monster leaps for some inexplicable reason, that a D that lost one of its three primary pass-rushers along with one at the age of 36 now who has only logged sacks and pass-pressure inconsistently along with a third that at 31 now hasn't eclipsed the 7-sack mark in four seasons will for some reason improve their 26th ranking in sacks without having added any proven sack artists, etc.  

 

Just seems like a whole lot that has to happen that is unlikely.   It's too much for me to think that it's all going to come together.  Particularly when Morse, our biggest free-agent addition is already hurt after having missed 14 of 32 games the past two seasons.  He's had several concusssions, singificant foot injuries, and now this, whatever this is other than to know that they've said that they hope he's ready for camp.  As I said following the draft, who plays C if Morse can't, what, Bodine again?  Aren't we all but back to square one then?  

 

And of course we're going to have injuries to our starters, all teams do, including us every season.  I mean where can we really afford to lose a starter?  I don't see anywhere.  

 

[formerlyofCtown]

On 6/7/2019 at 3:39 PM, Chandler#81 said:

I’ll be surprised if Kroft ever sees the field as a Bill. He’ll be on IR or PUP to start the year and if Knox performs like I think he will, there’ll be an injury settlement and Kroft will disappear. He was one of our 1st FA signings, necessitated by Clay’s departure. Since then, he’s been shoved way down the depth chart on merit, BEFORE once again breaking his ankle. 

 

Tip: Don’t buy a Kroft jersey.

So he will be handled like a UDFA.?  There would be a lot of money involved in that injury settlement.  Multi-year, multimillion dollar contract.