Tiberius Posted June 3, 2019 Posted June 3, 2019 (edited) The Electoral College would very heavily favor the Democratic party. Without a single other state Trump won in 2016, the Democratic candidate will have 270 EC votes. 38 EC votes. Two polls right now have the race a dead heat there with Trump and Biden. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_biden-6818.html Obama lost Texas by 16 points in 2012. Hillary lost by 9 in 2016. Beto lost by 2% in 2018 and the Demographics of the state are changing very fast. Even better, the Democrats are getting out the vote (increasing the number of their voters) faster than the population of Democratic leaning voters. Arizona, New Mexico and yes, California have all followed a similar pattern. California and Texas actually have about the same Hispanic population percentage. So just turning out the vote right now would do it, but the demographic shifts are making all this happen faster. Quote But the blue shift isn’t coming just from the growing minority population. Younger white voters are significantly more likely to identify as Democrats than their older counterparts. Consider the chart below, which is based on our recent research. It presents the percentage of Texans of color (on the left) and whites (on the right) who said they identified with the Democratic Party in 2009, 2013 and 2017. We include independent-leaning Democrats in this analysis. These figures come from analysis of Texas Politics Project Polls, with large samples that allow us to differentiate between age groups within the two categories. Figure: Juan Carlos Huerta As you can see, among people of color, both older and younger Texans have been solidly Democratic. For instance, in 2017, 68 percent of voters born before 1979 (i.e., 40 or older) and those born since 1979 identified with or leaned toward the Democrats. Although that represents a slight uptick among older voters since 2009, their numbers have generally been consistent over this period. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/12/18/are-texass-demographics-finally-turning-the-state-blue-we-looked-at-the-electorate-to-find-out/?utm_term=.16e4f8594d76 Edited July 24, 2020 by Tiberius 2 1
Tiberius Posted June 3, 2019 Author Posted June 3, 2019 Quote The population influx has shown few signs of abating in recent years. Denton and Collin counties each added around 27,000 residents last year — averaging 75 new residents a day, each. Tarrant County added about 90 people a day; Houston’s Harris County added almost 100 new people every 24 hours. The pace of growth is so fast that some mayors and county officials in suburban cities worry they will not be able to build sewer, school and power infrastructure fast enough. “Everyone talks about the sleeping giant here in Texas, the Latino vote is going to rise up one day. The other giant that they don’t talk about is Texas is the fastest growing state in the country,” said Ed Espinoza, executive director of the liberal group Progress Texas. “These new voters are voting for Democrats over Republicans by a ratio of 5 to 1.” https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/434161-orourke-renews-dem-hopes-about-turning-texas-blue 1 minute ago, bdutton said: No wonder Democrats don't want a wall. Why? That won't stop anything. The wall is stupid and useless SAW-1 Hacksaw | Park Tool parktool.com
3rdnlng Posted June 3, 2019 Posted June 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, /dev/null said: If my aunt had balls she'd be my transgender uncle FIFY
row_33 Posted June 3, 2019 Posted June 3, 2019 most amusing scenario is Donald takes the popular and loses the EC, but the Dem states pledging to vote EC for the popular winner give him the second term 3
Gary M Posted June 3, 2019 Posted June 3, 2019 (edited) 38 minutes ago, row_33 said: most amusing scenario is Donald takes the popular and loses the EC, but the Dem states pledging to vote EC for the popular winner give him the second term They will renege. Edited June 3, 2019 by Gary M
3rdnlng Posted June 3, 2019 Posted June 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Tiberius said: The Electoral College would very heavily favor the Democratic party. Without a single other state Trump won in 2016, the Democratic candidate will have 270 EC votes. 38 EC votes. Two polls right now have the race a dead heat there with Trump and Biden. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_biden-6818.html Obama lost Texas by 16 points in 2012. Hillary lost by 9 in 2016. Beto lost by 2% in 2018 and the Demographics of the state are changing very fast. Even better, the Democrats are getting out the vote (increasing the number of their voters) faster than the population of Democratic leaning voters. Arizona, New Mexico and yes, California have all followed a similar pattern. California and Texas actually have about the same Hispanic population percentage. So just turning out the vote right now would do it, but the demographic shifts are making all this happen faster. Please fix your title.
Q-baby! Posted June 3, 2019 Posted June 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said: Please fix your panties. Fify.
row_33 Posted June 3, 2019 Posted June 3, 2019 22 minutes ago, Gary M said: They will renege. you think?
keepthefaith Posted June 3, 2019 Posted June 3, 2019 (edited) There has been a move from the left to turn Texas blue for a long time. This comes from the addition of latino's, people relocating to Texas from blue-er states like CA and younger voters. As for any polls, too soon and Trump has shown to under-poll just about everywhere. Pollsters and media know it but they love to push that thinking. Edited June 3, 2019 by keepthefaith
Tiberius Posted June 3, 2019 Author Posted June 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, keepthefaith said: There has been a move from the left to turn Texas blue for a long time. This comes from the addition of latino's, people relocating to Texas from blue-er states like CA and younger voters. As for any polls, too soon and Trump has shown to under-poll just about everywhere. Pollsters and media know it but they love to push that thinking. It might not happen in 2020. It's looking closer than in awhile. But it does look like the process is well under way. So even if not this election, perhaps the next or the one after. But when and if it does happen--all things being equal--the EC becomes a huge bonus for Dems. So all this complaining about the EC is misplaced. Yes its unfair, but what comes around, go around.
3rdnlng Posted June 3, 2019 Posted June 3, 2019 3,502 https://www.numbersusa.com/news/not-my-backyard-feds-efforts-relocate-illegal-aliens-border It appears the Obama administration resettled illegal immigrants in a strategic manner in states that they thought they could eventually move into solid blue column. Note Tejas and Florida.
Boatdrinks Posted June 3, 2019 Posted June 3, 2019 Younger white voters have bought into the idea of “ shaming” and white guilt, sadly. It’s bad and deteriorating every day.
row_33 Posted June 3, 2019 Posted June 3, 2019 16 minutes ago, Chef Jim said: Isn't Texas pretty much already democratic? not for POTUS since 1968
3rdnlng Posted June 3, 2019 Posted June 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, Chef Jim said: Isn't Texas pretty much already democratic? Well, it's a democratic state for voting purposes but not controlled by the democrats. Too many people think that the democrat party is the democratic party, which is wrong. 1
Koko78 Posted June 3, 2019 Posted June 3, 2019 I love how Beta v. Cruz is supposed to mean something.
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