ROCKPILE REVIEW - The Hopeless Optimist

[Shaw66]

37 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I think what he was driving at is that if what you say it's true, it seems a little incongruous to expect a 7 or 8 win season. 

I don't think everything is in place yet.   I think they need another year of drafting young players. 

 

I think, for example, that there still will be weak links on the offensive line.  The free agent signings, other than Morse, are not certified NFL starters.   It's likely one or two will come through at least okay, but I think it's likely that this will be a power house offensive line.  I still have my doubts about Dawkins, and Ford, his press notwithstanding, is still a rookie.  

 

I also think that Allen is far from a finished product.   He needs years of seasoning.  I expect him to be a top 15 passer this season, which would mean considerable improvement over his rookie year, but if your QB is top 15, you can expect your team to be around there, too.   

 

Finally, I think the coaches are still learning on the job.   Daboll, the oline guy, the special teams guy all are youngsters.  And McD is still learning the head coaching job.  

 

So when I add it all up, I conclude that this team is on the path to greatness, but I doubt they're getting there this year.   2020 is when I think they'll be a serious team, a top-10 team with playoff aspirations.   And they'll get better after that.  

[Dr. Who]

19 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I don't think everything is in place yet.   I think they need another year of drafting young players. 

 

I think, for example, that there still will be weak links on the offensive line.  The free agent signings, other than Morse, are not certified NFL starters.   It's likely one or two will come through at least okay, but I think it's likely that this will be a power house offensive line.  I still have my doubts about Dawkins, and Ford, his press notwithstanding, is still a rookie.  

 

I also think that Allen is far from a finished product.   He needs years of seasoning.  I expect him to be a top 15 passer this season, which would mean considerable improvement over his rookie year, but if your QB is top 15, you can expect your team to be around there, too.   

 

Finally, I think the coaches are still learning on the job.   Daboll, the oline guy, the special teams guy all are youngsters.  And McD is still learning the head coaching job.  

 

So when I add it all up, I conclude that this team is on the path to greatness, but I doubt they're getting there this year.   2020 is when I think they'll be a serious team, a top-10 team with playoff aspirations.   And they'll get better after that.  

I think you are emphasizing the unfinished too much here. Schedule may be harder than it looks, but right now I'm disappointed with less than nine wins and I think ten or eleven is possible if we stay relatively healthy at key positions. (Thread title is a bit of an oxymoron, no?)

[Rocky Landing]

16 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I think you are emphasizing the unfinished too much here. Schedule may be harder than it looks, but right now I'm disappointed with less than nine wins and I think ten or eleven is possible if we stay relatively healthy at key positions. (Thread title is a bit of an oxymoron, no?)

Not for a Bills fan...

[Shaw66]

33 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I think you are emphasizing the unfinished too much here. Schedule may be harder than it looks, but right now I'm disappointed with less than nine wins and I think ten or eleven is possible if we stay relatively healthy at key positions. (Thread title is a bit of an oxymoron, no?)

8 wins, 9 wins, it's about the same to me.  And I agree that 10 or 11 are possible.   I think 10 or 11 are more likely than 5 or 6.  That is, I won't be terribly surprised if this team goes two or three over .500, but I will be quite surprised if they are 2 or 3 below. 

[PlayoffsPlease]

On 5/26/2019 at 12:57 PM, Shaw66 said:

Thanks, but your post completely 9gnores what I said. 

 

The NFL is not set up for dynasty runs.  The Patriots prove up wromg, and Andy Reid is evidence that it's possible for others to do it. He hasn't gotten over the too, but his teams are almost always good.  McDermott learned from Reid.  

 

1.  When Belichick was McDermott's age, no one was saying B I ll is the greatest coach of all time.  They were running him out of Cleveland.  

 

2.  As I said, I think Allen will be great.  And as I said, he and McD are a perfect match. Of course today they don't look like they can compete with Brady and Belichick.  Give 'em ten years.  

 

3.  Patriots beat EVERYONE.  They have a BETTER RECORD against the rest of the league than they have against the AFC east.  They would be spotted 6 wins in almost any division.  

 

4.  Allen may very well be willing to be paid below the market. You don't know that yet.  And the Patriots would still win if they paid Brady $30 million.

 

All you've said is that the Bills today are not the Patriots.  I didn't say they were.  I said they are building to geeatness, and you gave no reason why they can't. 

 

 

The whole point of the process is to identify areas of weakness and improve them. It applies to McDermott too. His on field performance is evaluated like everything else, and a process is put in place to improve  it if necessary.  

 

If you ask McDermott, he will tell you he will be a much better head coach, in all aspects of his job, five yeare from now, because he intends to study, evaluate and improve all aspects.  

you did read my post on why the patriots are an exception that will not be repeated. I love Josh Allen.  Do you honestly think he is going to be better than Brees Rogers and Wilson.  Has Allen said he is ready to take a below market deal to help the bills win? Do you foresee that he Afc east being as bad the next ten years as it was the last 10?

 

yiur point on belicheck in his younger years is completely off target.  He became the GOat while a 100 other head coaches came and went.  It is statistically silly to try to identify McDermott as the next 100 to 1 shot as goat.   

 

You really don’t make s case at all for the Bills to be on the cusp of greatness.  they are not. Neither are the rams or the eagles or chiefs who have already had far more success than the Bills with equally young teams and coaches who already exceed McDermott as wunderkinds.   it not like I am saying the Bills will suck. They just aren’t winning 4 Super Bowls in the next 10 years 

[BUFFALOKIE]

I have not made it al the way through this thread yet, but I must first say that it is the best, most intelligently argued (for and against OP) I have read here in a long long time.

 

Second: heck yeah Shaw66, I am always optomistic! And you are inspirational!

 

Third: personal note: I freaking love my job and the company I work for. Since I started there in 2001, with 58 employees, one aircraft and one big contract, we have now 250+ employees, x aircraft, and x BIG contracts, and are now considered a model contractor for all of our customers. That was because of "continual improvement" inspired by everyone from the top leadership down to rookies (at the time) like me. We still have excellent leadership and dedicated folks like myself who have been willing to mentor the next generation.

That is the process. If you don't get it, you don't last at my place of employment. 

 

Can you come speak for us sometime, LOL!

[Figster]

13 hours ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

you did read my post on why the patriots are an exception that will not be repeated. I love Josh Allen.  Do you honestly think he is going to be better than Brees Rogers and Wilson.  Has Allen said he is ready to take a below market deal to help the bills win? Do you foresee that he Afc east being as bad the next ten years as it was the last 10?

 

yiur point on belicheck in his younger years is completely off target.  He became the GOat while a 100 other head coaches came and went.  It is statistically silly to try to identify McDermott as the next 100 to 1 shot as goat.   

 

You really don’t make s case at all for the Bills to be on the cusp of greatness.  they are not. Neither are the rams or the eagles or chiefs who have already had far more success than the Bills with equally young teams and coaches who already exceed McDermott as wunderkinds.   it not like I am saying the Bills will suck. They just aren’t winning 4 Super Bowls in the next 10 years 

It took 1 season to accomplish what no other Bills HC could accomplish in over 18 years.(playoffs)

 

It took 2 seasons to accomplish what no Bills GM has accomplished in over 2 decades.(franchise QB)

 

Top 3 D with very little talent.

 

Myself personally, while Buffalo may not win 4 Superbowls over the next decade,

 

winning one works for me...

Edited May 29, 2019 by Figster

[Shaw66]

14 hours ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

you did read my post on why the patriots are an exception that will not be repeated. I love Josh Allen.  Do you honestly think he is going to be better than Brees Rogers and Wilson.  Has Allen said he is ready to take a below market deal to help the bills win? Do you foresee that he Afc east being as bad the next ten years as it was the last 10?

 

yiur point on belicheck in his younger years is completely off target.  He became the GOat while a 100 other head coaches came and went.  It is statistically silly to try to identify McDermott as the next 100 to 1 shot as goat.   

 

You really don’t make s case at all for the Bills to be on the cusp of greatness.  they are not. Neither are the rams or the eagles or chiefs who have already had far more success than the Bills with equally young teams and coaches who already exceed McDermott as wunderkinds.   it not like I am saying the Bills will suck. They just aren’t winning 4 Super Bowls in the next 10 years 

Yeah, I read your post, and it misses the point for two different reasons.  

 

First, you assume, but you did not and cannot prove, that there never will be another team like the Patriots.  There is absolutely no way to know that.   The fact that Bill Belichick exists is proof that it's possible, and if it's possible for one, it's possible for others.   There never was an Isaac Newton until Isaac Newton.  There never was an Oscar Robertson until Oscar.  There never was a Jim Brown until there was Jim Brown.  But it was only a matter of time when an equally dominant man came along.   Before Jim Brown, he was inconceivable.  Was any ever again like him?  Not exactly, but others were as dominant.   So to say the Bills can't be like the Pats have been is flat out wrong.   There is no reason why some other franchise can't come to dominate like the Pats.  There is no reason why another coach can't become the GOAT.  

 

Second, that's irrelevant, because I never said the Bills would dominate like the Pats or that McDermott would coach like Belichick.  I said the Bills are on their way to sustained, long-term success in the league.   That's what the Brown-Browns had, that's what the Noll-Steelers had, that's what the Walsh-49ers had, that's what the Johnson-Cowboys could have had if their owner hadn't been such a jerk.   Andy Reid has shown he produces sustained, long-term success.

 

And the fact that the Rams and the Chiefs and the Eagles have currently had success and could continue doesn't have anything to do, with whether the Bills could have sustained long-term success.  The Colts had it while the Pats did.   The Steelers had it while the Pats had it, too.   The Bills had it while the Cowboys had it.  It doesn't have to be an exclusive achievement.  

 

Sustained long-term success has several key ingredients:  good ownership, good coach, good GM, good quarterback.   Growth and continuity.   The Bills have all of that.   Does it mean that they will have sustained long-term success?  Not necessarily, but they can't have it without those things.  They're poised to do great things.  

[ganesh]

On 5/28/2019 at 12:53 PM, Rocky Landing said:

I have to say that I am entirely down with everything Shaw66 wrote, and I'm ecstatic with Josh Allen. But, the one thing that sticks in the back of my head that makes me question all of it is the nagging reality of how astonishingly poorly the quarterback position was managed last season. A clumsy "quarterback competition" that resulted in Nate Peterman starting, and JA as the only backup, with the worst receiving corp in the league, and one of the worst O-lines. Peterman's play was so bad, that he had to be benched for a rookie that conventional wisdom, and just about every pundit alive, said was a raw prospect that needed time to sit, and learn. It was probably fortunate that Allen was quickly injured so that he wasn't turned into Trent Edwards-- afraid to hold onto the ball for more than 2.2 seconds. That he came back from his injury and did, indeed, improve remarkably is a testament to his resilience, tenacity, and character. 

 

I do think Beane has done an exceptional job this offseason in FA, and the draft. And so, I remain cautiously optimistic. But, serious mistakes have been made.

The (poor) handling of the QB situation should definitely not be ignored.  It cost us a spot in the playoffs and possibly the growth of Josh Allen.  

[Shaw66]

11 hours ago, ganesh said:

The (poor) handling of the QB situation should definitely not be ignored.  It cost us a spot in the playoffs and possibly the growth of Josh Allen.  

Mistakes will be made in any endeavor.  The question is whether they will learn and grow from it.

 

Do you seriously think that three years from now Allen will be a lesser QB because of how QBs were handled last season?  I don't. 

[Figster]

18 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Mistakes will be made in any endeavor.  The question is whether they will learn and grow from it.

 

Do you seriously think that three years from now Allen will be a lesser QB because of how QBs were handled last season?  I don't. 

Nor do I,

 

Now had you asked me the same question before Allen returned from injury on his throwing arm I may have answered differently.

 

I'm inclined to think Allens development might be a little ahead of schedule then where McDermott planned it to be after Josh Allens rookie season in my humble opinion. Barkley played very well and its possible under a different scenario Bills fans could be watching another QB competition this preseason.

 

I think Allens improvement by seasons end took care of that problem.

[Rocky Landing]

29 minutes ago, Figster said:

Nor do I,

 

Now had you asked me the same question before Allen returned from injury on his throwing arm I may have answered differently.

 

I'm inclined to think Allens development might be a little ahead of schedule then where McDermott planned it to be after Josh Allens rookie season in my humble opinion. Barkley played very well and its possible under a different scenario Bills fans could be watching another QB competition this preseason.

 

I think Allens improvement by seasons end took care of that problem.

That's a pretty good point. I was all on board for Barkley to start the following game based on his performance vs. the Jets. In hindsight, I'm very glad they didn't. But, given the circumstances, they're damned lucky their decision panned out. And, man... one of the things I am most thankful for this season is: no quarterback competition. I can't even remember the last time that happened.

[ganesh]

19 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Mistakes will be made in any endeavor.  The question is whether they will learn and grow from it.

 

Do you seriously think that three years from now Allen will be a lesser QB because of how QBs were handled last season?  I don't. 

No.  I was just pointing out that McDermott's 2018 season was not without its flaws.  

[Shaw66]

22 minutes ago, ganesh said:

No.  I was just pointing out that McDermott's 2018 season was not without its flaws.  

Yes, but the point is that there ALWAYS are flaws.  There ALWAYS are mistakes.   A continuous improvement process recognizes this reality and aggressively corrects process deficiencies so that those mistakes aren't repeated.   

 

There were all kinds of mistakes in 2018.  And there will be more in 2019.   In a well-run process, the big mistakes don't recur, and you're dealing with smaller and smaller mistakes.  

[PlayoffsPlease]

22 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Mistakes will be made in any endeavor.  The question is whether they will learn and grow from it.

 

Do you seriously think that three years from now Allen will be a lesser QB because of how QBs were handled last season?  I don't. 

McDermott is truly not proven.  His instant peer is Sean McVay both starting with their first head coaching jobs at the same time. His success level is light years behind McVay or Doug Peterson.  People in court rooms like to say "anything is possible", so of course anything is possible, and McDermott could become some combination of Vince Lombardi and Darth Bellicheck and become the greatest ever.  Or he could be the next Marvin Lewis. o

 

Or he could be the guy who does 1000 little things right then makes huge blunders,  like wasting half of last years pre-season QB first team snaps on Peterman.  It could be a different blind spot this year.   My concern is that McDermott will always be the guy that plays great but then spikes the ball on the 1 yard line before getting into the end zone.  The questions is NOT will they learn from mistakes.  The main question is will the continue to make mistakes when presented new challenging situations.  Or will every injury to a key player, or game lost to a bad referee mean the Bills season is over because we will flounder in the wake of those challenges.   We simply don't know yet.

[Shaw66]

Much of what you say is

10 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

McDermott is truly not proven.  His instant peer is Sean McVay both starting with their first head coaching jobs at the same time. His success level is light years behind McVay or Doug Peterson.  People in court rooms like to say "anything is possible", so of course anything is possible, and McDermott could become some combination of Vince Lombardi and Darth Bellicheck and become the greatest ever.  Or he could be the next Marvin Lewis. o

 

Or he could be the guy who does 1000 little things right then makes huge blunders,  like wasting half of last years pre-season QB first team snaps on Peterman.  It could be a different blind spot this year.   My concern is that McDermott will always be the guy that plays great but then spikes the ball on the 1 yard line before getting into the end zone.  The questions is NOT will they learn from mistakes.  The main question is will the continue to make mistakes when presented new challenging situations.  Or will every injury to a key player, or game lost to a bad referee mean the Bills season is over because we will flounder in the wake of those challenges.   We simply don't know yet.

Much of what you say about the future is true.  Anything could happen.   

 

Some of what you say, again, is irrelevant.  Sean McVay is irrelevant.   Comparisons between McDermott and any one at this point in time have NOTHING to do with what I'm talking about.   I predicted that the Bills are on their way to a great run, and whatever anyone thinks about anyone else is simply irrelevant.  

 

You could of course be right about McDermott's future, but what you describe is completely inconsistent with his history.   This is a man who has succeed at every point in his coaching career.   He wasn't the best assistant coach when he started, but he became one.  He wasn't one of the best D coordinators when he started, but he became one.   He was generally viewed around the league as one the very best young head coach prospects in the league.   That's not a guy who consistently spikes the ball at the one yard line.  

 

And the single most important thing about the guy is that he is a learner, a student.   That's who he is.  So for you to predict that he's always going to screw up is simply inconsistent with who the guy is.  He doesn't make the same mistakes over and over.  He corrects his mistakes and improves.  That's who he is.  You say but new challenges come along.  Yes they do, but this game isn't completely different every five years.  The same fundamentals apply today as 50 years ago.  What changes are details, which are small, not large.  

 

So sure, no one knows what the future will be.  But the chances are that McDermott will continue to improve as a head coach, year after after, because that's who he is.  

[NickelCity]

In general I find that critiquing last year's handling of the QB competition is pretty cheap, outside of the fact that they should have kept McCarron on the roster. Blindly committing to Allen would have been foolish, although you could tell they were thinking about going with him until the Bengals preseason fiasco. But my poorly elucidated point it that I don't really hold a QB competition that involves a rookie against them...or any QB staff in that situation. 

[Figster]

42 minutes ago, NickelCity said:

In general I find that critiquing last year's handling of the QB competition is pretty cheap, outside of the fact that they should have kept McCarron on the roster. Blindly committing to Allen would have been foolish, although you could tell they were thinking about going with him until the Bengals preseason fiasco. But my poorly elucidated point it that I don't really hold a QB competition that involves a rookie against them...or any QB staff in that situation. 

Peterman won the QB competition from appearances, so I tend to agree with you Nickel.  (outside the fact they should have kept McCarron on the roster that is) 

 

Oline mishandling on the other hand now is a different story which I think had allot to do with why the QB competition didn't give us a good indicator in my humble opinion. A J gets banged up, Allen gets the back of his head slammed into the turf in his own end zone. Not good. 

 

Yup, lets start/sacrifice Peterman to the football Gods...

 

...kid has a fast enough read and release he may survive...

 

... Ok... its getting late...

Edited May 31, 2019 by Figster

[Rocky Landing]

35 minutes ago, NickelCity said:

In general I find that critiquing last year's handling of the QB competition is pretty cheap, outside of the fact that they should have kept McCarron on the roster. Blindly committing to Allen would have been foolish, although you could tell they were thinking about going with him until the Bengals preseason fiasco. But my poorly elucidated point it that I don't really hold a QB competition that involves a rookie against them...or any QB staff in that situation. 

I don't see it as cheap at all. I see no reason why we, as fans, should not feel free to critique any element of the team-- be it coaching, personnel decisions, or what have you. But, especially the way the QB situation was handled last season. It was far more than simply cutting AJ. Many fans were screaming about the decision to start Peterman as it was happening. Several fans (I believe Kirby was one of them?) predicted how opposing teams would game plan for him, and it happened with startling accuracy. 

 

I get what Shaw66 is selling, and I agree with it. But, the QB management last season is the one thing that gives me pause. Because, it wasn't one mistake. It was a series of mistakes that started in TC, and stretched into midseason. That isn't a cheap observation, IMO.

[whatdrought]

16 years of fandom and it’s never felt like this... something in the northern air. Let’s go Bills!!!