ROCKPILE REVIEW - The Hopeless Optimist

[Pete]

Gabba Gabba Hey!  I'm in!

[chris heff]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

Boy is it sad what people consider "too long to read" these days. 

 

So true, I once read War and Peace in the original Russian and I don’t speak Russian.

[LSHMEAB]

16 hours ago, billspro said:

 

How exactly do you expect a team to take away the long ball and cover the QB scramble? I would love to hear some X’s and O’s for that. If there is a way to do that Allen is going to have the TEs and Beasley wide open and he will dice teams up.

That's a good question. The only way to pull it off is to dare Allen to hit Beasley, McCoy and the ? TE underneath. If he takes a step forward in terms of recognition, this strategy has no chance of working. 

13 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Underrated aspect of his tenure here. It's been a pleasant surprise for this Bills fan to watch the head coach apparently agree with our assessments of which coaches need to go, and to move on from them decisively (but without the insecure and bridge-burning midseason firings? Dennison, Crossman, Castillo, and a full cast of offensive position coaches.

 

Let's not forget McD's handling of Leslie Frazier and the defense early last season; he intervened decisively and effectively, and without alienating or badly undercutting his D Coordinator. In fact, I'm fairly certain (without looking it up) that he shared the duties the following weekend, at Minnesota, and awarded Frazier the game ball following an upset win and defensive masterpiece. THAT's head coaching. That's putting your best people in position to succeed. 

Probably wasn't an easy personal decision for McD to dump Castillo, but it was necessary. 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I agree Shaw.  That's why I used challenge flags as my point.  Since his first he hasn't got one right and by showing the improvement right out of

the chutes this year would make me smile.

Thanks for clarifying. 

 

I've gotten to the point where I don't worry about weaknesses.   Are the Bills weak at tight end?  With the injury, sure.  Do I mind?  No.  Can't fix everything in a day, and the Bills will keep working at it and fix it.   Might they have gone a different direction in free agency and/or the draft regarding tight end?  Sure.  Do I mind?  No.  They'll get to it.  Their objective is for EVERY position to improve EVERY year, and they aren't going to forget about the tight end.   That's why I say they could be better or worse than I expect in the next year or two, but however long it takes they will get better from year to year.  

 

In five years they'll have a top 5 quarterback and a top 5 defense.  Why am I so sure?  For the reasons I gave - the right owners, the right GM, the right coach, the right quarterback.  They're all going to grow in their jobs, because that's the objective they've set for themselves.  

 

Everything about the franchise is getting better.  Someone commented about the quality of the video on BuffaloBIlls.com getting better.  Relations with the media are better.  Facilities are better.  Food services for the team are better.  

 

Most importantly, as someone mentioned, team culture is better.  They're building an environment where players will want to be a part of.  They keep talking about what a privilege it is to play for this fan base.  They talk about family.  They talk about excellence.   They talk about winning the right way.  

 

This is going to be a perennial Super Bowl contender, like the Saints and the Chiefs and the Pats.   Only the Pats get there year after year, but virtually every year since the hurricane New Orleans has been talked about as a contender.   Why?  Ownership, coach, quarterback, fan base.  

 

And I don't think anyone is leaving.  The Pegulas are in for the long haul.  They'll pay Beane whatever it takes to keep him, and they'll pay McDermott too.   And Beane will pay Allen whatever it takes to keep him.   Because of the culture they're building, I think they ALL will stay for less than they might be able to demand, because they all will understand that that isn't consistent with the process - they want the entire team to get better continuously, and part of that is having money to spend on other players.  That's why Brady takes only what he takes.   They all will see that even at reduced pay, they all will retire as very rich men, richer than they ever need.  Allen will get paid more than Beane and McDermott, but Beane and McDermott will make millions a year for 20 years.  (Think about it:  Allen knows today that five years from now he's getting $30 million a year, and he'll be able to do that for 10 years.   After taxes and a VERY comfortable lifestyle, he'll have $100 million saved.  McDermott knows that he's going to be making $10 million a year for 20 years; Beane something similar.   They are all going to know that they are part of the best franchise, with best record and with the best owners; they aren't going to care about squeezing the last dollar out of contract negotiations.)  

 

Believe it. It's all sitting there before our eyes, right now.  

[Troll Toll]

This is a scary year for me as a fan. I think Allen has the ability to be our franchise guy, but I still think they failed to give him an adequate supporting cast on offense. Right before he went down to injury last year, I was seeing Josh’s confidence break. 

 

I think watching Barkley perform well gave him a shot in the arm and realize he was making the mental game harder than it needed to be. 

 

I look at our RBs and they should be collecting Social Security soon. Our receivers don’t scare anybody. None of them command double coverage. Our Offensive Line only looks significantly better at Center. DCs will be zoned in on Josh, who accounted for basically all our offense when he returned from injury.

 

Objectively, although we did upgrade those position groups, I would still argue that our WR, RB, and TE units each rank bottom 5 in the NFL. Our OL is hopefully up to mediocre.

 

The QB is in large part judged by how well his supporting cast can make and finish plays. Asking Josh to be a miracle worker in Year 2 seems like a bit much. So much happens in one season. We saw Trent Edwards start out really promising his 2nd year, but then collapse in an unrecoverable fashion by season’s end. A young QB’s psyche is very delicate and I worry that we may ruin an otherwise great QB by refusing to surround him with playmakers.

 

My nightmare is that our running game doesn’t improve from last year, our receivers still struggle to get open, Josh continues to run or throw into blanketed receivers.

 

I hope Josh can overcome his supporting cast, but I don’t think many on here realize how poorly his teammates stack up against other rosters. I don’t think it wise to continually expect Josh to BE the entire offense every single game (like he was at the end of last year) because we have no other playmakers.

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, Troll Toll said:

This is a scary year for me as a fan. I think Allen has the ability to be our franchise guy, but I still think they failed to give him an adequate supporting cast on offense. Right before he went down to injury last year, I was seeing Josh’s confidence break. 

 

I think watching Barkley perform well gave him a shot in the arm and realize he was making the mental game harder than it needed to be. 

 

I look at our RBs and they should be collecting Social Security soon. Our receivers don’t scare anybody. None of them command double coverage. Our Offensive Line only looks significantly better at Center. DCs will be zoned in on Josh, who accounted for basically all our offense when he returned from injury.

 

Objectively, although we did upgrade those position groups, I would still argue that our WR, RB, and TE units each rank bottom 5 in the NFL. Our OL is hopefully up to mediocre.

 

The QB is in large part judged by how well his supporting cast can make and finish plays. Asking Josh to be a miracle worker in Year 2 seems like a bit much. So much happens in one season. We saw Trent Edwards start out really promising his 2nd year, but then collapse in an unrecoverable fashion by season’s end. A young QB’s psyche is very delicate and I worry that we may ruin an otherwise great QB by refusing to surround him with playmakers.

 

My nightmare is that our running game doesn’t improve from last year, our receivers still struggle to get open, Josh continues to run or throw into blanketed receivers.

 

I hope Josh can overcome his supporting cast, but I don’t think many on here realize how poorly his teammates stack up against other rosters. I don’t think it wise to continually expect Josh to BE the entire offense every single game (like he was at the end of last year) because we have no other playmakers.

I could argue with various points here, but it's generally correct.  I'm not saying anything different.  I'm not saying Allen is going to be a miracle worker.   I'm not saying the line will be all-star or TE will became a strength rather than a weakness.   

 

What I'm saying is this team is getting better and will continue to get better, year after year.  And I think it's quite simple:  right owners, right GM, right coach, right QB.   The rest is just blocking and tackling to improve the level of play, year to year, and to improve the level of talent.  And talent doesn't mean superstars - it means very good football players committed to the process.  That's the plan, and I believe it will work as they planned.  

 

I think Allen will be a top 15 QB this season and top 5 within three seasons.  

[Troll Toll]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I could argue with various points here, but it's generally correct.  I'm not saying anything different.  I'm not saying Allen is going to be a miracle worker.   I'm not saying the line will be all-star or TE will became a strength rather than a weakness.   

 

What I'm saying is this team is getting better and will continue to get better, year after year.  And I think it's quite simple:  right owners, right GM, right coach, right QB.   The rest is just blocking and tackling to improve the level of play, year to year, and to improve the level of talent.  And talent doesn't mean superstars - it means very good football players committed to the process.  That's the plan, and I believe it will work as they planned.  

 

I think Allen will be a top 15 QB this season and top 5 within three seasons.  

I certainly am in agreement with Allen’s trajectory if all goes well. I think this year will really, really be a grind for him. If he can come out on the other side of this season with the same health and confidence he possesses today, I think we will see the Bills as a Super Bowl contender for years to come. I think we need one more offseason to hit the tipping point where our roster is solid across the board and deep.

[Seasons1992]

20 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

The Rockpile Review – by Shaw66

 

“The Hopeless Optimist”

 

I know I’m probably heading for a big crash, but I can’t help it: I think the golden age of the Buffalo Bills is upon us.  I think we are about to witness the greatest run of excellence in the history of the franchise, and one of the greatest of all time in the NFL.

 

Maybe it’s just because I’ve lived a long life and been fortunate to have had a lot of good things happen around me.   About the only good thing that hasn’t happened is true greatness for my football team.  I was there for the AFL championships and the Super Bowls.  Now it’s time to go all the way.

 

Whatever the reason, I can’t talk myself out of believing the Bills are about to take off.  It’s not that I expect the 2019 Bills to be great – someplace in the 9-7 to 7-9 range once again this year; what I expect is that the 2020 Bills will be a solid playoff team and a regular preseason Super Bowl contender after that.  It could come a year earlier or a year later, but it’s coming.

 

“WHAT??!!!  You can’t be serious,” readers scream.

 

I’m serious.  I’m serious for the combination of several reasons.

 

1.         The Process

 

I keep listening to McDermott and Beane, learning about what they are doing.  If I understand it, I think it will work to build a team that is a powerhouse for many seasons.

 

It’s about continuous improvement, getting better at your job.  McDermott says it over and over.  Get better every day.  That’s why they want rookies.   They want the benefit of a football player for ten years, getting better year after after year. 

 

Part of the genius of that system is that new guys get pulled up to level of the rest of the team pretty quickly.  When the team is playing at a good level, rookies come in and learn quickly to play at the good level.  When the team is great, rookies come in and learn to play at the great level.  McDermott saw Andy Reid do it, and he’s watched Bill Belichick do it.

 

Everyone is challenged to get better, game after game, season after season.  Players are challenged.  Coaches are challenged, too.  McDermott is expected to improve.  Daboll is expected to improve.  Frazier.  Everyone.  If you aren’t working to improve, you aren’t part of the process.

 

No player is guaranteed a job, and every player knows that he will sit or worse as soon as someone comes along who does it better.  And the players are happy with that, because they understand they are part of a bigger process.  If they’ve worked hard and made the team better, they will share in the team’s future success, because they were part of building the platform from which it all took off.   I guarantee that when McDermott wins a Super Bowl in Buffalo, Kyle Williams will know that he owns a part of that trophy.

 

Continuous improvement.

 

2.         The Coach

 

My apologies to the lifelong atheists in the crowd, but there’s no way to describe McDermott except in religious terms.   He’s organizing a cult, with avid followers who get high on the Word.  It’s his personal version of The 300, with everyone doing his job, doing anything, for the benefit of everyone else, with a little of Andy of Mayberry wholesome goodness thrown it.  

 

He practices what he preaches.  He’s about doing the right thing all the time, preparing, learning, communicating.   He lives in a world where everyone earns what he gets, and everyone understands why they sometimes don’t get what they tried to earn.  He expects a Lombardi Trophy and nothing less, and he understands that if he doesn’t get it, someone else better will get the job.   And he’s okay with that.  He imposes that world on his players, and he expects them to be okay with it, so he must be okay with it, too. 

 

He cares about everyone in his organization, and he wants everyone in the organization to care, too.   Was there an element of commercialism in how McDermott and the Bills adopted PanchoBilla in his final weeks?  Sure.  But there was genuine caring and concern, too, and there was genuine grief at the end.

 

Is McDermott perfect?  No.  Does he make mistakes?  Plenty.  But it’s about continuous improvement, learning and getting better very day.  He WILL get better, because he won’t accept less from himself.   And don’t forget, he took his first head coaching job at about the same age as Bill Belichick, and Belichick made mistakes for years before he hit his stride.  McDermott is growing into greatness.

 

McDermott does it right, and by doing it right, those around him do it right, too.

 

3.         The GM

 

I just love Beane.  I love his calculating approach to his job.   Analyze, make a decision, evaluate, move on.  Analyze, make a decision, evaluate, move one.  No wasted motion. 

 

Beane’s the Chief Operating Officer of the cult.  His primary job is to keep a fresh supply of qualified devotees on hand for them to study at the feet of the master.  He believes in the process, and he believes in McDermott.  He believes that if he continues to deliver the right players, McDermott will deliver the Lombardi.

 

Beane’s fearless.  He’s willing to make a decision and accept the consequences.  He doesn’t fret over the mistakes; he just moves on to the next decision.  

 

He’s willing to make the bold move. 

 

4.         The QB

 

It’s completely obvious that Beane and McDermott are selecting players the way they said they would: they want players who are intense and non-stop competitors, players what always want to get better, players who are driven to work at their craft every day. They want disciples.   Others need not apply. 

 

The latest example is Jerry Hughes, who has evolved from an occasionally flashy, occasionally frustrating athlete to superior all-around football player and leader.   It didn’t seem possible three years ago. 

 

Hughes’s contract extension says two things – that he’s matured into the kind of player and leader that McDermott wants to win with, and that Hughes can see that the Bills are the kind of organization that make him a better and more successful player.  Hughes wants to be part of the success that McDermott and Beane are building; he is a disciple.  And he isn’t the only one.

 

What does that have to do with the quarterback?   Just this: the quarterback is the most important player on the field, and therefore the quarterback has to be the lead disciple.  In Josh Allen, Beane and McDermott found their guy.   He loves to compete.  He loves to learn – you can see it and hear it in his interviews.   He’s so much more mature, he has so much more understanding of the game, than we saw a year ago.  He handles his duties in press conferences almost flawlessly, giving thoughtful answers, deftly avoiding difficult issues, rarely being flustered.   He desperately wants to do it right, on the field and off, and McDermott thrives on that attitude.  

 

Belichick got his ideal disciple in Brady.  McDermott got his in Allen.  And, by the way, McDermott also got 6’5”, 240 pounds, speed, mobility and a rocket arm.  I think Allen is destined for greatness, because he has all the tools, mental, physical and emotional, and he has the perfect mentor.  A match made, if you believe in that sort of stuff, in heaven.

 

5.         The Owners

 

How perfect is it that leading this whole effort is a pair of owners who are true believers in the process?  They’ve lived the process, they’ve reaped the financial and personal benefits of doing it right, and now they’ve found a coach and a GM who preach the process. 

 

They’re believers in continuity.  They know being great takes time, because it took them time, and they’re willing to give Beane and McDermott time to reach the goal.  

 

They’re the big donors in the cult.  When the GM says he needs new facilities to attract and train the kind of disciples who will win football games, the owners say yes.  When McDermott says he needs another coach, they back him. 

 

And they’re good people, just like McDermott and Beane and Kyle and Jerry and Josh.  It’s like they’re all from Mayberry. 

 

The NFL is a club, and the club members already are proud to have colleagues like Kim and Terry.  Colleagues who can be counted on to have one eye on the bottom line and the other on their moral compass.   Bills fans can be proud, too.

 

 

There it is.  Something approaching the perfect combination of ownership, leadership and players committed to a process that will work.

 

We’ve waited a long time for this.  It’s going to be special.

 

Count me in the cult.

 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

 

[LABILLBACKER]

Never in my wildest dreams did I see us going after Josh Allen. I was convinced it would be Rosen or Darnold we'd trade up for. I said to myself how can a 56% QB at a mediocre program like Wyoming be our messiah.  Then I saw him do things last year not even Jim could do. Shaw is right, 2020 will be the breakout season as this year will be a 8/9 win appetizer. Our steady "process" HC and confident GM are firmly in place. Brady and Bill should out by 2020. Everything should be lined up. Never Hopeless to be an Optimist. 

[Thurman#1]

I think you're a bit overoptimistic here. Which is what the tendency of the serious team fan is.

 

A team that consistently competes? Yeah, I think starting in 2020 we're going to see that. A golden age ... a cult ... everybody's the perfect guy? Yeah, I don't think so. But it would be lovely. Not impossible, I think. I love the direction they're headed, in any case. It just seems that most of the moves they make are good and all of them are at least thoughtful and smart. That's a wonderful thing to see from this team. It's been a long time.

 

I have many more doubts about Allen than you. I think you look at his upside as Cam Newton. Who has a terrific upside himself, as he showed, but has had accuracy problems. I like Allen's head better than Cam's so maybe we see a bit more consistency, but IMO you're overoptimistic there. We'll see.

Edited May 27, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

I think you're a bit overoptimistic here. Which is what the tendency of the serious team fan is.

 

A team that consistently competes? Yeah, I think starting in 2020 we're going to see that. A golden age ... a cult ... everybody's the perfect guy? Yeah, I don't think so. But it would be lovely. Not impossible, I think. I love the direction they're headed, in any case. It just seems that most of the moves they make are good and all of them are at least thoughtful and smart. That's a wonderful thing to see from this team. It's been a long time.

Of course, I've just predicted that the Bills will reach the absolute pinnacle.   I suppose it's fair to call it overoptimistic.  

 

Nevertheless, that's where I think we're headed.  

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Great post OP; when you’ve been around long enough to have seen a lot of good days/teams in the SB run, only to fall into the desert wandering of “heroic marches” to 7-9 as Sully was fond of characterizing for example, the Jauron years, you develop a feel for what’s a BS ride versus a solid foundation—I can honestly say my optimism has never been higher than Kelly’s era. There’s something about this team, particularly Josh Allen, that just feels refreshing and real and on the verge of greatness—it’s just different than what it’s been for a long time, and that’s a really cool good thing.

 

 NFL Postseason 2019. So why not us, why not now? 

[Richard Noggin]

11 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

Probably wasn't an easy personal decision for McD to dump Castillo, but it was necessary. 

That's the point, right? He did the thing he had to do, despite the personal conflict of interest. 

 

Canning Castillo might wind up being a pivotal move in franchise history, if the optimists are correct about Buffalo's trajectory...

[Lfod]

I'm optimistic. As a fan I'm excited to see how things turn out. I'm still expecting he struggles to be real. I'll be around on game days cheering for the Bills. 

[Richard Noggin]

13 hours ago, Georgie said:

Way too long to read completely...but I did notice the statement about  keeping a rookie for 10 years . Wishful thinking with no guarantee. Rookie contracts are only 4,possibly 5 years. And 10 years is an exceptional career.

Ugh with the "way too long to read" comment. The full context, tone, and nuance of a text matters. It informs every point made within. Wait until you have time to read it before commenting. 

 

But that's just, like, my opinion, man.

[Richard Noggin]

10 hours ago, Troll Toll said:

Our receivers don’t scare anybody. None of them command double coverage.

Forgive me for zeroing in on this one, limited point, in what is otherwise a thoughtful post: BUT...

 

...it got me thinking about the Patriots and how they tailor defenses to particular opponents. Don't they (as evidenced in the Super Bowl, playoffs, and for many many years) put their best man-to-man guy (currently Gilmore) on the opposing team's best or most productive receiver, then double the second-best receiving option with CB2 or LB/EDGE guy (if it's a TE like Kelse) plus a safety, leaving 8 defenders to stop the running game and secondary passing attack? 

 

So, then, how will/should Belichick scheme to stop the 2019 Bills? Who gets Gilmore, and who gets doubled? 

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Of course, I've just predicted that the Bills will reach the absolute pinnacle.   I suppose it's fair to call it overoptimistic.  

 

Nevertheless, that's where I think we're headed.  

 

 

Got it. And I disagree, thinking that's overoptimistic.

 

As I said, we'll see.

[CSBill]

21 hours ago, chris heff said:

What possessed you to become a Bills fan in the late 1960s? They were just dreadful.

 

Growing up where I did, in the boonies of northern PA, the only TV we got--when my father had the antenna turn to the right position--was the Buffalo stations. That's all I knew. Yes, they were bad then, but once you become a Bills fan, it's a life-long commitment. ?

[Darth Bill]

Well said Shaw66. I have been following your posts for years  ...  at least back to the BMB. When you speak you are very honest and measured kind of like E. F. Hutton - you speak and everyone listens. Anyhow there are 4 additional success factors to expand upon and add to your post - The Draft, Free Agency, The City, and The Fans.

 

The Draft - The Patriots have mastered the art of moving around the draft as if it is an investment fund with high yields. Mc-Beane hopefully can learn to do more of that. The draft is a numbers game and historically seems to yield roughly 30% to 40% success rate for a good team and 0 % to 20% for a bad team. The Bills in the last two drafts have done some of this but need to do more especially with regard to getting comp picks. Draft 7 poorly and yield 1 maybe 2 players or Draft 10 or 12 well and yield 4 good players maybe more. The Bills are improving upon this.

 

Free Agency - The Bills are middle of the road when it comes to this. We will see how it works this year with the offensive line players they found. Since the inception of the current free agency system the Bills have had a few successes but overall have bled away talent.  Here is where New England has had quite a bit of success. The Patriots have a knack for finding other teams high draft players who are not succeeding, just mediocre, or fading and attracting them where they for the most part find their groove and succeed buying into the Patriot Way. Bills have had free agent sucesses with players like Hughes, Poyer, and few others but blew it losing Gilmore and the bevy of receivers who became successful with the Pats and the Rams to name a few.

 

The City - Buffalo is certainly not a world class city like SF, LA, NYC, or Boston. But the region is rebounding and a lot of good things are happening to put the city in better light. After all the world class likes of Toronto is in the same type of climate so it is possible to make an a nationally attractive although smaller city out of Buffalo.  Marketing Buffalo is challenging due to the historical bias against it because of our winter weather. Cities like Detroit, Minneapolis, Chicago, Cleveland, Green Bay, and Boston contend with bad weather and yet attract free agents. More work is needed is this area at least in terms of attracting players and national attention and this issue is a long term one mostly out of the teams control. Maybe somehow landing the draft in Buffalo in the future is possible.

 

The Fans - Get us a good team and we will raucously support them. Get us a bad team and we will be critical and all over their case. We have good supportive fans and nationally known tailgating game day support. Basically the Bills have the community behind them and need to continue to their efforts to regionalize. We only get credit for Erie and Niagara counties as our market but in reality the market should include the Niagara Peninsula, Rochester, Syracuse, Finger Lakes and the rest of WNY. Anyone who has driven Eastbound of Williamsville on the Thruway after a game can attest to how far reaching the fan base goes. Our market is more than the Buffalo metro of 1.2 million to well over 5 million when those areas are included.  As far as having more of a national fan base just win and they will come and as always we have the support of the many Buffalonians all over the country who have left but still support the Bills.

 

I am not as wordy or well thought out as you, Shaw66, but I would be interested in your take on these additional factors and how current, future, and continous improvement in these areas is going to contribute to a successful run at at being a champion and a perennial contender. I certainly look forward to another run at success for the Bills. It was great to expect and see the success of the Kelly era after suffering through the late 60s, 70s, and some of the 80's when it seemed like the black cloud over the Bills would never clear but it did clear and will clear again. In the back of my mind though I feel like the big market economics is kind of against the smaller teams. Simply said there is just not enough economic value to the rest of the league for Buffalo to succeed like New England.

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Got it. And I disagree, thinking that's overoptimistic.

 

As I said, we'll see.

What is it that you see in the present organization that you think would keep them from becoming a great franchise?

 

Me. Wilson wasn't a great owner.  Rex wasn't ever going to be a great coach.  Fitzpatrick never was going to be a star QB.  Whaley wasn't a Hall of Fame GM.  

 

I don't see any weak links now.  McD isn't a great coach yet, but he has time to grow.  He's had some success already, and he is determined. Beane and Allen look like winners, and the Pegulas have impressed me.  

 

What do see that makes you think this combination is unlikely to become historically great?  What franchises do you think are better set up for an impressive decade?