ROCKPILE REVIEW - The Hopeless Optimist

[Shaw66]

The Rockpile Review – by Shaw66

 

“The Hopeless Optimist”

 

I know I’m probably heading for a big crash, but I can’t help it: I think the golden age of the Buffalo Bills is upon us.  I think we are about to witness the greatest run of excellence in the history of the franchise, and one of the greatest of all time in the NFL.

 

Maybe it’s just because I’ve lived a long life and been fortunate to have had a lot of good things happen around me.   About the only good thing that hasn’t happened is true greatness for my football team.  I was there for the AFL championships and the Super Bowls.  Now it’s time to go all the way.

 

Whatever the reason, I can’t talk myself out of believing the Bills are about to take off.  It’s not that I expect the 2019 Bills to be great – someplace in the 9-7 to 7-9 range once again this year; what I expect is that the 2020 Bills will be a solid playoff team and a regular preseason Super Bowl contender after that.  It could come a year earlier or a year later, but it’s coming.

 

“WHAT??!!!  You can’t be serious,” readers scream.

 

I’m serious.  I’m serious for the combination of several reasons.

 

1.         The Process

 

I keep listening to McDermott and Beane, learning about what they are doing.  If I understand it, I think it will work to build a team that is a powerhouse for many seasons.

 

It’s about continuous improvement, getting better at your job.  McDermott says it over and over.  Get better every day.  That’s why they want rookies.   They want the benefit of a football player for ten years, getting better year after after year. 

 

Part of the genius of that system is that new guys get pulled up to level of the rest of the team pretty quickly.  When the team is playing at a good level, rookies come in and learn quickly to play at the good level.  When the team is great, rookies come in and learn to play at the great level.  McDermott saw Andy Reid do it, and he’s watched Bill Belichick do it.

 

Everyone is challenged to get better, game after game, season after season.  Players are challenged.  Coaches are challenged, too.  McDermott is expected to improve.  Daboll is expected to improve.  Frazier.  Everyone.  If you aren’t working to improve, you aren’t part of the process.

 

No player is guaranteed a job, and every player knows that he will sit or worse as soon as someone comes along who does it better.  And the players are happy with that, because they understand they are part of a bigger process.  If they’ve worked hard and made the team better, they will share in the team’s future success, because they were part of building the platform from which it all took off.   I guarantee that when McDermott wins a Super Bowl in Buffalo, Kyle Williams will know that he owns a part of that trophy.

 

Continuous improvement.

 

2.         The Coach

 

My apologies to the lifelong atheists in the crowd, but there’s no way to describe McDermott except in religious terms.   He’s organizing a cult, with avid followers who get high on the Word.  It’s his personal version of The 300, with everyone doing his job, doing anything, for the benefit of everyone else, with a little of Andy of Mayberry wholesome goodness thrown it.  

 

He practices what he preaches.  He’s about doing the right thing all the time, preparing, learning, communicating.   He lives in a world where everyone earns what he gets, and everyone understands why they sometimes don’t get what they tried to earn.  He expects a Lombardi Trophy and nothing less, and he understands that if he doesn’t get it, someone else better will get the job.   And he’s okay with that.  He imposes that world on his players, and he expects them to be okay with it, so he must be okay with it, too. 

 

He cares about everyone in his organization, and he wants everyone in the organization to care, too.   Was there an element of commercialism in how McDermott and the Bills adopted PanchoBilla in his final weeks?  Sure.  But there was genuine caring and concern, too, and there was genuine grief at the end.

 

Is McDermott perfect?  No.  Does he make mistakes?  Plenty.  But it’s about continuous improvement, learning and getting better very day.  He WILL get better, because he won’t accept less from himself.   And don’t forget, he took his first head coaching job at about the same age as Bill Belichick, and Belichick made mistakes for years before he hit his stride.  McDermott is growing into greatness.

 

McDermott does it right, and by doing it right, those around him do it right, too.

 

3.         The GM

 

I just love Beane.  I love his calculating approach to his job.   Analyze, make a decision, evaluate, move on.  Analyze, make a decision, evaluate, move one.  No wasted motion. 

 

Beane’s the Chief Operating Officer of the cult.  His primary job is to keep a fresh supply of qualified devotees on hand for them to study at the feet of the master.  He believes in the process, and he believes in McDermott.  He believes that if he continues to deliver the right players, McDermott will deliver the Lombardi.

 

Beane’s fearless.  He’s willing to make a decision and accept the consequences.  He doesn’t fret over the mistakes; he just moves on to the next decision.  

 

He’s willing to make the bold move. 

 

4.         The QB

 

It’s completely obvious that Beane and McDermott are selecting players the way they said they would: they want players who are intense and non-stop competitors, players what always want to get better, players who are driven to work at their craft every day. They want disciples.   Others need not apply. 

 

The latest example is Jerry Hughes, who has evolved from an occasionally flashy, occasionally frustrating athlete to superior all-around football player and leader.   It didn’t seem possible three years ago. 

 

Hughes’s contract extension says two things – that he’s matured into the kind of player and leader that McDermott wants to win with, and that Hughes can see that the Bills are the kind of organization that make him a better and more successful player.  Hughes wants to be part of the success that McDermott and Beane are building; he is a disciple.  And he isn’t the only one.

 

What does that have to do with the quarterback?   Just this: the quarterback is the most important player on the field, and therefore the quarterback has to be the lead disciple.  In Josh Allen, Beane and McDermott found their guy.   He loves to compete.  He loves to learn – you can see it and hear it in his interviews.   He’s so much more mature, he has so much more understanding of the game, than we saw a year ago.  He handles his duties in press conferences almost flawlessly, giving thoughtful answers, deftly avoiding difficult issues, rarely being flustered.   He desperately wants to do it right, on the field and off, and McDermott thrives on that attitude.  

 

Belichick got his ideal disciple in Brady.  McDermott got his in Allen.  And, by the way, McDermott also got 6’5”, 240 pounds, speed, mobility and a rocket arm.  I think Allen is destined for greatness, because he has all the tools, mental, physical and emotional, and he has the perfect mentor.  A match made, if you believe in that sort of stuff, in heaven.

 

5.         The Owners

 

How perfect is it that leading this whole effort is a pair of owners who are true believers in the process?  They’ve lived the process, they’ve reaped the financial and personal benefits of doing it right, and now they’ve found a coach and a GM who preach the process. 

 

They’re believers in continuity.  They know being great takes time, because it took them time, and they’re willing to give Beane and McDermott time to reach the goal.  

 

They’re the big donors in the cult.  When the GM says he needs new facilities to attract and train the kind of disciples who will win football games, the owners say yes.  When McDermott says he needs another coach, they back him. 

 

And they’re good people, just like McDermott and Beane and Kyle and Jerry and Josh.  It’s like they’re all from Mayberry. 

 

The NFL is a club, and the club members already are proud to have colleagues like Kim and Terry.  Colleagues who can be counted on to have one eye on the bottom line and the other on their moral compass.   Bills fans can be proud, too.

 

 

There it is.  Something approaching the perfect combination of ownership, leadership and players committed to a process that will work.

 

We’ve waited a long time for this.  It’s going to be special.

 

Count me in the cult.

 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

[jkeerie]

I think you may be onto something Shaw.  Is it optimistic?...yes.  Overly so?   No.   Your outlook is reasoned and measured.   Count me in the cult as well.

[Buddo]

I’m pretty much on board with most of this post. I’m still on the sceptical side of being a true adherent to the ‘cult’, yet I am becoming increasingly convinced that McDermott and Beane, do practise what they preach. There are a lot of signs all over the place - and.I’m not talking about the ones in the field house.

 

I couldn’t tell you for one moment what precisely the plan is, but it is obvious there is one. Moves made this off season, are major evidence of this. Areas of weakness have been identified, and addressed. Whether or not the right address is on the envelope is a moot point, but progress will be made, even if it isn’t spot on. 

 

Imho, there’s a very good fighting chance that we will have a contending team this coming season, with a distinct possibility of a playoff berth again. Next year onwards, with a tweak or two, I’m hopeful we will have the basis of a roster that can contend for the foreseeable future.

[Logic]

Thanks for taking the time to write that, @Shaw66. 

I count my self as a hopeless optimist,,as well. I use the words "relentless optimist", since I like to think I have SOME hope. It looks like you have some hope, too.

I'll just say this: I've never experienced real, sustained success from my favorite football team. Not really. I'm 32 years old. That means I was 3 when the Kelly Bills started dominating and I was 8 or so when they finished. My very first football memory is of crying because the Bills just lost a Super Bowl. I didn't even really know what that MEANT at the time, but the adults around me were all pretty upset, the feeling in the room was of pain and loss, and I knew this was very bad news. I started paying closer attention to football and to the Bills, started really knowing the names of players and really watching the games, about the time Rob Johnson and Doug Flutie came along. In other words, right in time to witness the worst era in the history of Bills football.

It's been a long and disappointing 20 years, obviously. Imagine this: I don't know what it's like to root for a team that has a franchise QB! Think of that. 20 years of investing time, energy, heart, soul, and money into a team that has not, at any point during that period, had consistently high quality quarterback play. Out of 20 seasons of being a football-obsessed Bills lunatic, I've witnessed only 4 winning seasons. 4 out of 20. 

What I'm trying to say is that I literally don't know what it's like to root for a winning team. I don't know what it's like to expect the playoffs, and a legitimate shot at the championship, every year. I don't know what it's like to enter each offseason knowing that the QB position is taken care of, so we can just focus on upgrading the team around him. I don't even know what it will feel like or how I will behave. Graciously, I hope. Hopefully, the scars of the past 20 years of bad football will stay with me, so that the pain of those moments can make the success taste all the sweeter. Call me crazy and hopeless, too, because I see what you see. I see the ownership, management, coaching, and players all lining up perfectly. I see a quarterback who has the potential to be an all time great. I see a shiny new stadium on the horizon and a long term future in Western New York. I really can't believe it. Can it really be true?! The day that the Bills win the Super Bowl, I will drop what I'm doing and fly to Buffalo. To be in that city post championship victory...to witness THAT parade?! Wow. Wouldn't miss it for the world. Can't wait.

[billsbackto81]

Where's the Standing Ovation button? 

 

We need one! Well said Shaw66.

[Bleedbuffaloblue]

Awesome Shaw! Totally agree. I too am old enough to have witnessed all the good times and bad going all the way back to the early 1960’s and dearly want to see us win the big one while I am still on the planet. Count me in the cult as well. 

[Augie]

I’m also a member of the optimist club. 

 

I admit I’m a bit worried about #4 on your list. Encouraged, but not fully sold......and Josh is the linchpin. It all depends on his success. If it turns out he’s NOT the guy (and I pray that will not be the case), I’d want the current regime to get another shot at finding the right guy.  I’m not “negative” there, but we just need to see more.  Progress does not equal perfection, but we need progress. 

[Logic]

1 minute ago, Augie said:

I’m also a member of the optimist club. 

 

I admit I’m a bit worried about #4 on your list. Encouraged, but not fully sold......and Josh is the linchpin. It all depends on his success. If it turns out he’s NOT the guy (and I pray that will not be the case), I’d want the current regime to get another shot at finding the right guy.  I’m not “negative” there, but we just need to see more.  Progress does not equal perfection, but we need progress. 

I'm with you here. Year two is so big for young quarterbacks. Once defenses start taking away the long ball and playing contain to keep Allen in the pocket, what will happen? Will he learn to read the defense, take the checkdown, take the 3 yard gain? Will he actually utilize Cole Beasley, who I expect to be open most of the time due to the attention that must be paid to Foster and Brown? 

There are big questions Allen needs to answer on the field before any reasonable person can say he's a surefire franchise guy. In keeping with the theme of the post, I'm optimistic, but hopefully not hopelessly so!

[LSHMEAB]

1 minute ago, HOUSE said:

I am afraid I can't translate 7-9 to 9-7 as being optimistic

Same. I think there should be some serious progress this season if everything is on the right track.

[Augie]

8 minutes ago, Logic said:

I'm with you here. Year two is so big for young quarterbacks. Once defenses start taking away the long ball and playing contain to keep Allen in the pocket, what will happen? Will he learn to read the defense, take the checkdown, take the 3 yard gain? Will he actually utilize Cole Beasley, who I expect to be open most of the time due to the attention that must be paid to Foster and Brown? 

There are big questions Allen needs to answer on the field before any reasonable person can say he's a surefire franchise guy. In keeping with the theme of the post, I'm optimistic, but hopefully not hopelessly so!

 

This year could look very different. Hate Josh taking off for the 20 yard scamper? Kiko says the spy thing doesn’t work very well. Go more zone so DB’s don’t turn their backs? Can Josh find the guys settling down in the soft spots? Afraid of the deep ball? Maybe more 2 deep safeties? Does that open up the run again? 

 

It should be an interesting year, and hopefully points to great things for the next decade plus. 

[DefenseWins]

What gives me optimism about Allen and the Bills is their respective attitudes. Allen seems to want to be the best and has shown leadership qualities that will inspire his team mates to gel into a team around him. He even seems to have gotten McCoy on his side rather quickly. Hopefully, Allen will throw the ball more, for shorter completions and run a bit less. At the very least, taking a shot on Allen has been a good decision for this front office. We won't know for sure whether Allen is the real deal for a couple more years. I am optimistic though.

 

[Success]

Yep. That about sums it up for me.

[Shaw66]

36 minutes ago, Augie said:

I’m also a member of the optimist club. 

 

I admit I’m a bit worried about #4 on your list. Encouraged, but not fully sold......and Josh is the linchpin. It all depends on his success. If it turns out he’s NOT the guy (and I pray that will not be the case), I’d want the current regime to get another shot at finding the right guy.  I’m not “negative” there, but we just need to see more.  Progress does not equal perfection, but we need progress. 

I think you can bet on Allen.   I just think he has all the parts.   He wants it.  He studies.  He's a great athlete. And he has a coach who is perfect for him.  

 

I think NFL will be talking about him this season, and I think he'll be a premier QB within five years.  

 

Remember, it's continuous improvement.  His line will get better and his receivers will get better.  He'll get better.   It's going to be awesome. 

[cd1]

1 hour ago, billsbackto81 said:

Where's the Standing Ovation button? 

 

We need one! Well said Shaw66.

[Happy]

Great post.  Love the optimism.  Beane (really like the job he's doing) got the groceries, it is now up to McD and his staff to cook the meal.

 

Do I expect a SB this year?  No way.  I do expect improvement, which includes not getting outclassed in any game this season; a playoff spot would be the cherry on top.  If there is one area I'm worried about right now, it is the defensive line.  I know we just picked up Ed Oliver, but I think it will take some time for him to be as dominant as it is expected he will end up being.  So to tie this in to your post, I think it is a combination of points 1 and 2; McD and Leslie Frazier will need to show improvement in this area - both in run stopping and rushing the passer.  If this can't be done, there may need to be a change (further improvement) in the defensive coaching staff in the form of the DC.

[DCBongo]

Love your posts and love the optimism!  My Dad was at the rockpile in 1960 and I enjoy your vantage point.

[billspro]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I think you can bet on Allen.   I just think he has all the parts.   He wants it.  He studies.  He's a great athlete. And he has a coach who is perfect for him.  

 

I think NFL will be talking about him this season, and I think he'll be a premier QB within five years.  

 

Remember, it's continuous improvement.  His line will get better and his receivers will get better.  He'll get better.   It's going to be awesome. 

 

Great post, add me to the cult too because I believe this team is headed for greatness. I actually think it will start this year with the playoffs and 2020 is going to be an AFC championship caliber team. 

 

Allen is the biggest reason for excitement. We watched him carry an Offence full of backup caliber NFL players on his back the last half of the season. He has the talent to succeed, the competitiveness to win games, and the leadership skills to elevate the play of the offence and the defence. So my only change is that you should be more excited Shaw, this team is ready to compete this season!

[TigerJ]

Beane and McDermott are not infallible.  They have demonstrated that through a number of mistakes (like Kelvin Benjamin).  What is different is their focus on a process, that includes constant evaluation and a willingness to cut bait when a decision has proved to be wrong.  Beane has made a number of smart decision, but has put in place a process for moving on from mistakes.  That should keep the team on track for steady improvement.  This may be the years we start to reap the benefits.  I'm hopeful.

[billspro]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

I'm with you here. Year two is so big for young quarterbacks. Once defenses start taking away the long ball and playing contain to keep Allen in the pocket, what will happen? Will he learn to read the defense, take the checkdown, take the 3 yard gain? Will he actually utilize Cole Beasley, who I expect to be open most of the time due to the attention that must be paid to Foster and Brown? 

There are big questions Allen needs to answer on the field before any reasonable person can say he's a surefire franchise guy. In keeping with the theme of the post, I'm optimistic, but hopefully not hopelessly so!

 

How exactly do you expect a team to take away the long ball and cover the QB scramble? I would love to hear some X’s and O’s for that. If there is a way to do that Allen is going to have the TEs and Beasley wide open and he will dice teams up.

[Stallions]

I was at the Rockpile in 1960 with my Dad and I've been optimistic ever since . It' a wonderful illness!