Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh

[MacGyver]

Allen has a lot to prove in 2019. He better not take a step back or many pundits and fans who did not like the pick will pounce.

[K-9]

8 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

Looked like Elway in any way?

Really, that is absolutely comical.

We don't know what will happen next season, but anyone who saw Allen as anything better than a terrible passer last year is cloudy in thought.

Good point. Because Allen looked a helluva lot better than Elway did in his rookie year. And he didn’t line up under the guard once all season, either. 

 

Took Elway 10 years to hit that “magical” 60% threshold, too. 

[DuckyBoys]

I take not stock in what he says.  Guy is trying to have it both ways.  He says Allen is not a qb and wont succeed then says if he succeeds it will be thanks to good coaching/situation.   WTF,?  I have no problem with someone saying Allen wont make it but dont then go out and try and play both sides of the fence. 

[Capco]

45 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

He was the 30th ranked QB in the NFL. Outperformed whose prognosis?

Mayfield, Darnold, and even Rosen were ranked higher.

This is who he outperformed:

 

Peterman ahead of Anderson and Barkley?  Idk about that ranking...

[John from Riverside]

46 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

Looked like Elway in any way?

Really, that is absolutely comical.

We don't know what will happen next season, but anyone who saw Allen as anything better than a terrible passer last year is cloudy in thought.

I would love to listen to you but a bills we just dropped another pass

[BobChalmers]

9 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Not sure why people get up in arms over all this stuff. 

 

These guys do a lot of research on these players and then give a prediction based on their research. It's a nice job to have because it doesn't matter if they are right or wrong, they'll still have a job.... it's just his opinion on a player that happened to be picked by that Bills. It has no barring on if Allen will be successful or not so I never understood why people got pissed over this stuff.

 

 

 

No, they really don't research much of anything.

 

They grab a pile of easily obtained stats and run them through a spreadsheet.

 

 

[GimmeSomeProcess]

58 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

Looked like Elway in any way?

Really, that is absolutely comical.

We don't know what will happen next season, but anyone who saw Allen as anything better than a terrible passer last year is cloudy in thought.

Did you actually read my post or just see the elway. Compared to Peterman and Anderson, yes he looked like Elway out there. My god, way to troll and twist the words.

[K-9]

33 minutes ago, DuckyBoys said:

I take not stock in what he says.  Guy is trying to have it both ways.  He says Allen is not a qb and wont succeed then says if he succeeds it will be thanks to good coaching/situation.   WTF,?  I have no problem with someone saying Allen wont make it but dont then go out and try and play both sides of the fence. 

Agree entirely. 

 

As if every successful QB ever wasn’t the beneficiary of good coaching/situation?  

[Dr. K]

11 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Aaron was on WGR yesterday with an interesting position on Josh.  He still does not "see" him as an NFL starting QB.  Says he would like to see Bills fans rewarded but does not see Josh as likely to produce it.  If I were doing the interview I'd have asked him about the basis for this, is it the numbers or some actual film review?  IIRC, this was his predraft assessment based on his Wyoming stats and their  correlation to historical projection and he's not bending it based on year 1 in the NFL. 

 

Assuming he is still focused on the numbers, I would have asked him what effect that the following would have on his numbers:

 

1) being the leader in depth to target

2) being amongst the top in dropped passes and throwaways/spikes

3) being near the top in throws under pressure

 

I saw some Twitter chatter started by Bills reporters Sal Capaccio and Ryan Talbot.  Here's the link to the latters' story:

 

newyorkupstate " I-do-not-see-a-nfl-starting-qb-in-buffalo-bills-josh-allen-says-espns-aaron-schatz"

 

I appreciate facts in any discussion and numbers are facts.  But discussions need facts connected to meaning and context.  It looks like if the Bills have a decent season, he already has an alternate explanation as to why it happened.

 

I think Josh will be one of the alltime "scouts eyes and ears" vs. "raw analytics" cases in the NFL.  Someone gets to tell the other side "I told you so."

 

 

 

 

 

Good. I like that there are guys like this saying Allen will never pan out. It will make it that much more satisfying when (and if) he does. 

 

And I expect that few of the analysts like Schatz will change their opinions. 

[Kemp]

2 hours ago, K-9 said:

Good point. Because Allen looked a helluva lot better than Elway did in his rookie year. And he didn’t line up under the guard once all season, either. 

 

Took Elway 10 years to hit that “magical” 60% threshold, too. 

 

Here's your logic:

Elway greatly improved during his career, so Allen will, too.

The very basics of analytics and common sense points out that that makes no sense.

For every Elway, there are 10 other QBs each season that begin their career poorly who don't get any better. What other than your beliefs tell you that Allen will follow a similar arc to Elway?

Edited May 26, 2019 by Kemp

[John from Riverside]

5 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

Here's your logic:

Elway greatly improved during his career, so Allen will, too.

The very basics of analytics and common sense points out that that makes no sense.

For every Elway, there are 10 other QBs each season that begin their career poorly who don't get any better. What other than your beliefs tell you that Allen will follow a similar arc to Elway?

Work ethic

[Kemp]

2 hours ago, Capco said:

 

Peterman ahead of Anderson and Barkley?  Idk about that ranking...

 

This is what you are using to argue Allen was a good passer last year?

1 hour ago, GimmeSomeProcess said:

Did you actually read my post or just see the elway. Compared to Peterman and Anderson, yes he looked like Elway out there. My god, way to troll and twist the words.

 

Allen compared to no one in the NFL was Elway. 

[Kemp]

1 hour ago, Dr. K said:

Good. I like that there are guys like this saying Allen will never pan out. It will make it that much more satisfying when (and if) he does. 

 

And I expect that few of the analysts like Schatz will change their opinions. 

 

Analysts only change their opinions after the mathematical analysis confirms that they should. Whether you follow them in thought or not, you know that's what they do. If you disagree with an opinion of an analyst, you can be right, but you'll be wrong more often than right.

If the above wasn't true, every team wouldn't always be beefing up their analytics department. That's simply how player evaluation is done, now.

14 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Work ethic

 

It is impossible for a QB to make it to the NFL without an outstanding work ethic.

[Capco]

31 minutes ago, Kemp said:

This is what you are using to argue Allen was a good passer last year?

 

I haven't argued anything of the sort.  It was just the first thing that popped into my head after reading that list...

[Rocket94]

We already know that Josh Allenh possessives all positive attributes to be a great NFL Quarterback. He played quite a bit in his first year. We witnessed it. Everyone has skeptics...dont be surprised if it continues through out his career.

Edited May 26, 2019 by Rocket94

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, Kemp said:

 

Analysts only change their opinions after the mathematical analysis confirms that they should. Whether you follow them in thought or not, you know that's what they do. If you disagree with an opinion of an analyst, you can be right, but you'll be wrong more often than right.

If the above wasn't true, every team wouldn't always be beefing up their analytics department. That's simply how player evaluation is done, now.

 

It is impossible for a QB to make it to the NFL without an outstanding work ethic.

When you combine it with insane arm talent good things happen

 

you do remember that he comes with insane arm talent and athletism right?

[Nextmanup]

18 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

When you combine it with insane arm talent good things happen

 

you do remember that he comes with insane arm talent and athletism right?

Do you think Tim Tebow or Colin Kaepernick are lacking in athleticism?

 

 

[nucci]

Why does this matter? This guy has no significance

[BillyWhiteShows]

9 hours ago, Kemp said:

 

He was the 30th ranked QB in the NFL. Outperformed whose prognosis?

Mayfield, Darnold, and even Rosen were ranked higher.

This is who he outperformed:

 

It’s not shocking that those rankings come from Football Outsiders  Depending on the metric you go by, you’ll find Allen ranked closer to Darnold and higher than Jackson and Rosen.

 

But even going by your logic, a “parody of an NFL QB” probably certainly be ranked lower than 30th.  In no way, would a “parody” be ranked higher than Lamar Jackson, who is “not a parody” right?

 

Also go read the article by Ryan Talbot.  He explains how you could see progress in Allen after coming back from the elbow injury.  Also, a “parody” probably doesn’t lead a team with bad talent around them to a 4-4 record. 

 

Again, not saying that Allen is a great QB yet....but yes he has performed better than the bleak outlook from old man Schatz

5 hours ago, Kemp said:

 

Analysts only change their opinions after the mathematical analysis confirms that they should. Whether you follow them in thought or not, you know that's what they do. If you disagree with an opinion of an analyst, you can be right, but you'll be wrong more often than right.

If the above wasn't true, every team wouldn't always be beefing up their analytics department. That's simply how player evaluation is done, now.

 

It is impossible for a QB to make it to the NFL without an outstanding work ethic.

 

Because a second rate analytics site like Football Outsiders are right 100% of the time... don’t you know?

 

Something tells me @Kemp is a big fan of Mike Schopp 

Edited May 26, 2019 by BillyWhiteShows

[HOUSE]

Anyone can write a sports article, the question is will the link still be open come December.

 

..

 

 

Edited May 26, 2019 by HOUSE