Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh

[ghostwriter]

Well, forgive me for saying so, but I don't see Allen as a refined passer quite yet. He will likely be a running QB year 2. Look, we've added a bazillion RBs, OL and signed Lee freaking Smith to a big fat porkchop of a contract - we are going to be a running team. Allen is more like Michael Vick than he is Tom Brady, deal with it. I care more about the pattern and trajectory of his development. A pattern of reasonable growth as a passer. This guy is raw.

[K-9]

6 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

The difference between Wentz' and Wentz's is does lead to confusion.

Great name for a line of snack food, though. “Hey, pass the Wentz’s.” 

[JESSEFEFFER]

2 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

i apologize for not going through all the pages yet but, i think i heard this today on wgr....or maybe it was a similar take from a booker...but.....

 

i have been wrong before. i liked rob johnson....i liked jp losman...i liked trent, but all went wrong. i have always attributed it to the billsy way of ruining young qbs.....and i think that theory has merit. when ej came in and was forced to start, this may just be another example of this, but i just didn't think the kid had it between the ears.

 

now here i am again being hopeful that josh will be our next franchise qb...a cross between elway and kelly. i am going to hang onto those hopes because for the 1st time in decades, i feel we have the gm and coaching staff that will make him that. i pray that i'm right. i just think about the last 4 yrs. with whaley/brandon/marrone and rex.

 

we're not going back there. i believe in this staff and josh allen. 10-6 at least. my biggest and really only fear this year is facing greggo week one on the road. our oline has got to get the nasty working day one.

Yes you did.  The Saturday hosts had it replayed in its entirety.  I would have had different questions for Schatz and probed why his opinion was unchanged.  There are numbers that support a brighter future than what was projected in 2018 prior to the draft.  Being hopeful is nothing that warrants an apology.

 

Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies. – Andy Dufresne, The Shawshank Redemption

 

[Doc Brown]

Just now, K-9 said:

Great name for a line of snack food, though. “Hey, pass the Wentz’s.” 

Only a 36% chance it will fall on the floor.  Wentz's Pub and Grill has a nice ring to it.

[LSHMEAB]

5 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Yes you did.  The Saturday hosts had it replayed in its entirety.  I would have had different questions for Schatz and probed why his opinion was unchanged.  There are numbers that support a brighter future than what was projected in 2018 prior to the draft.  Being hopeful is nothing that warrants an apology.

 

Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies. – Andy Dufresne, The Shawshank Redemption

 

Let's just HOPE we don't have to wait as Long as Andy for the pay off! Time and pressure I suppose.

[JESSEFEFFER]

Just now, LSHMEAB said:

Let's just HOPE we don't have to wait as Long as Andy for the pay off! Time and pressure I suppose.

 

It depends on when you choose to start the clock.

[billsredneck1]

7 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Yes you did.  The Saturday hosts had it replayed in its entirety.  I would have had different questions for Schatz and probed why his opinion was unchanged.  There are numbers that support a brighter future than what was projected in 2018 prior to the draft.  Being hopeful is nothing that warrants an apology.

 

Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies. – Andy Dufresne, The Shawshank Redemption

 

the guy was so negative on the whole team and portrayed his opinion as that of a bookmaker....i get that but, he just seemed to be lacking that insight to the team, as we all have our ears to the wall everyday. it's ;like he just looked at the roster in today's paper ...or media.  i'd gladly put $100 that the bills kick 6.5 in the ass.  even the jets beat guys don't go as far as he did. welp, i hope his job doesn't depend on his predictions.

 

edit that, i hope it does.

[K-9]

11 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Let's just HOPE we don't have to wait as Long as Andy for the pay off! Time and pressure I suppose.

When it comes to QBs, you want all the time and none of the pressure. 

 

Especially in obvious passing situations. 

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

 

Seen is the operative word.  Is he looking at his raw stats or is he actually watching him play?  Schopp did not ask him.  The basis for his unchanged view of his projection into the NFL is the most interesting part of the opninion and Schopp let it go unanswered.  Numbers need meaning and context.  

 

Josh's scramble runs were analytically more productive than any other QB's checkdown passes.  No one completes 100% of them for over 10 ypa.

 

Josh's TD runs limited his passing TDs.  Is there any more value to a passing TD than a running TD?

 

The factors listed in the OP absolutely make completion % a lower number.  I would want Schatz to put these into some context (rookie year, depth of target, drops, spikes/throwaways, % throws under pressure.)

 

 

For some background on Aaron Schatz’s predraft QB analysis, here is a thread about that from that time.  It uses QBASE 

 

Here is an older article that explains QBASE. TL/DR: It’s a metric that tries to rate QBs and incorporates adjustments for drops, level of competition, etc.  

 

So let us get right to your argument: That the eye test can show things that metrics can’t.  And that Allen is an example of a player who is actually better than the metrics would show. 

 

First, is metrics the whole picture and is it infallible?  Nope and nope.  When stupidly applied, use of metrics can be truly awful.  It’s a very useful tool, however.  When used correctly metrics can certainly help make better decisions and judgements.  The best users know those gaps and account for them.  The worst blindly follow the numbers. 

 

So so what about Allen?  Well, the metrics have never been remotely good for him.  They don’t point to him having any real success in the NFL.  That’s the rub here.  Fans get ticked off because these people - numbers really - are saying Allen will likely bust.  But something gets missed in that umbrage.  These are predictive percentages based on past performances, measurements, experience, etc.  Schatz makes that clear.

 

Now about that eye test.  It certainly is useful, but it’s a lot better when it’s unbiased. A big plus of analytics is that it is designed to eliminate emotion and bias.  Allen has  certainly flashed this past season and while that is encouraging, it’s typical for a fan to remember the good plays and forget about the bad ones.  I’d also point to the linked thread above and see what people here were saying about Allen and the other QBs before the draft.

 

Another thing that can happen is that some of the issues players have can be corrected.  Some analytic sites don’t even consider D2 and D3 players because the level of competition skews things so much. Furthermore the coaching is often inferior to D1 programs so there can be more progress for players IF they are developed properly.  One good thing about Allen is that some of the things that a QB can’t change aren’t his problem - size, arm strength, athleticism.  He came from a D2 school (albeit a good one), but there’s a real chance that he can develop more than a typical prospect.  At least that’s possible. 

 

If you can understand why people like Schatz don’t like Allen’s chances in the NFL it’ll actually give you a good idea of where to look for improvement.  Or even look to places their model doesn’t cover.  I really think Allen might be more unique than people think.  His ability to buy time in the pocket to throw (like Roethlisberger) and run for yardage (like few QBs can) might help him overcome some of the issues that get brought up.  Maybe he’s never going to be as accurate as we’d like, but maybe he won’t have to hit tight windows as much if he can consistently buy extra time in the pocket.  Maybe his running ability gets him a lot less man coverage and he doesn’t have to worry about that as much.  There’s a lot of ways things can still work out for him, but he will still need to improve or work around some of the past deficiencies his critics have pointed out.  Let’s hope we get to see him evolve and succeed here.  Nothing is written in stone- and Schatz would tell you that. 

[eball]

The “analytics or bust” guys are going to be lukewarm on Allen until his play forces them to rethink things. Even with his progression through last season they can still point to stats like completion percentage, and even if the Bills win a lot of games behind Allen you know they will come up with reasons beyond his play for that happening. 

 

That’s how it goes in today’s world in which everyone needs to be “right” and only a small few are willing to have reasonable conversations and change their perspectives. 

[JESSEFEFFER]

14 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

For some background on Aaron Schatz’s predraft QB analysis, here is a thread about that from that time.  It uses QBASE 

 

Here is an older article that explains QBASE. TL/DR: It’s a metric that tries to rate QBs and incorporates adjustments for drops, level of competition, etc.  

 

So let us get right to your argument: That the eye test can show things that metrics can’t.  And that Allen is an example of a player who is actually better than the metrics would show. 

 

First, is metrics the whole picture and is it infallible?  Nope and nope.  When stupidly applied, use of metrics can be truly awful.  It’s a very useful tool, however.  When used correctly metrics can certainly help make better decisions and judgements.  The best users know those gaps and account for them.  The worst blindly follow the numbers. 

 

So so what about Allen?  Well, the metrics have never been remotely good for him.  They don’t point to him having any real success in the NFL.  That’s the rub here.  Fans get ticked off because these people - numbers really - are saying Allen will likely bust.  But something gets missed in that umbrage.  These are predictive percentages based on past performances, measurements, experience, etc.  Schatz makes that clear.

 

Now about that eye test.  It certainly is useful, but it’s a lot better when it’s unbiased. A big plus of analytics is that it is designed to eliminate emotion and bias.  Allen has  certainly flashed this past season and while that is encouraging, it’s typical for a fan to remember the good plays and forget about the bad ones.  I’d also point to the linked thread above and see what people here were saying about Allen and the other QBs before the draft.

 

Another thing that can happen is that some of the issues players have can be corrected.  Some analytic sites don’t even consider D2 and D3 players because the level of competition skews things so much. Furthermore the coaching is often inferior to D1 programs so there can be more progress for players IF they are developed properly.  One good thing about Allen is that some of the things that a QB can’t change aren’t his problem - size, arm strength, athleticism.  He came from a D2 school (albeit a good one), but there’s a real chance that he can develop more than a typical prospect.  At least that’s possible. 

 

If you can understand why people like Schatz don’t like Allen’s chances in the NFL it’ll actually give you a good idea of where to look for improvement.  Or even look to places their model doesn’t cover.  I really think Allen might be more unique than people think.  His ability to buy time in the pocket to throw (like Roethlisberger) and run for yardage (like few QBs can) might help him overcome some of the issues that get brought up.  Maybe he’s never going to be as accurate as we’d like, but maybe he won’t have to hit tight windows as much if he can consistently buy extra time in the pocket.  Maybe his running ability gets him a lot less man coverage and he doesn’t have to worry about that as much.  There’s a lot of ways things can still work out for him, but he will still need to improve or work around some of the past deficiencies his critics have pointed out.  Let’s hope we get to see him evolve and succeed here.  Nothing is written in stone- and Schatz would tell you that. 

 

I get why the Wyoming numbers lead to that projection.  It's about the only thing I knew about Josh predraft.  The Bills were going to get a QB and I did not want to have a favorite and then not get him so I didn't follow the predraft process.  I did not even seek the highlight video until after the was the picked. 

 

The real issue I have is to suggest that nothing he did on the field in 2018 alters that projection.  That seems just plain stubborn.  Many anti Allen opinions became "He surprised me and did way more in year 1 than I thought he would.  He has a chance to be a special QB."  There are numbers that support that position and that's why I would have asked Schatz to offer more of the basis for his unchanged opinion.

Edited May 25, 2019 by JESSEFEFFER

[HOUSE]

Why doesn't this guy quit and give some poor kid a job

[Kemp]

Really didn't want Allen, and other than his running ability, he played like I expected he would, which wasn't scintillating.

 

This season will determine if he is on an arc towards a good career or whether he's in over his head. Beane better hope it's the former or he will be on a much shorter leash.

[K-9]

58 minutes ago, eball said:

The “analytics or bust” guys are going to be lukewarm on Allen until his play forces them to rethink things. Even with his progression through last season they can still point to stats like completion percentage, and even if the Bills win a lot of games behind Allen you know they will come up with reasons beyond his play for that happening. 

 

That’s how it goes in today’s world in which everyone needs to be “right” and only a small few are willing to have reasonable conversations and change their perspectives. 

The analytics or bust guys simply never address their always present elephant in the room: their complete inability to quantify those intangible qualities that are just as important to being a successful QB as a completed pass. 

[Gugny]

Singular version of schatz, is schat.  Present tense of schat is ....

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, Kemp said:

Really didn't want Allen, and other than his running ability, he played like I expected he would, which wasn't scintillating.

 

This season will determine if he is on an arc towards a good career or whether he's in over his head. Beane better hope it's the former or he will be on a much shorter leash.

I see NOTHING to indicate he is in over his head

 

I think your way base

[Protocal69]

When you look at Allen from pure passing numbers perspective he sucks. Now what is funny is that Sam Darnold gets all the praise in the world but from a pure passing numbers perspective his overall numbers are only marginally better than Allen. 

 

Sam Darnold was 1-9 in his last 10 games with his only win was against the BILLS where it took a special teams meltdown and 3 dimes from Darnold in the 4th to pull it out. Before the 3 dimes he looked like trash. I actually like Darnold but the gap between him and Allen is far less than what people make it out to be

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

 

I get why the Wyoming numbers lead to that projection.  It's about the only thing I knew about Josh predraft.  The Bills were going to get a QB and I did not want to have a favorite and then not get him so I didn't follow the predraft process.  I did not even seek the highlight video until after the was the picked. 

 

The real issue I have is to suggest that nothing he did on the field in 2018 alters that projection.  That seems just plain stubborn.  Many anti Allen opinions became "He surprised me and did way more in year 1 than I thought he would.  He has a chance to be a special QB."  There are numbers that support that position and that's why I would have asked Schatz to offer more of the basis for his unchanged opinion.

 

I disagree. Allen certainly didn’t fall in his face last season, but he also has a long way to go.   His running and ability to buy time when the pocket breaks down are definite pluses that few expected.  But there are still questions about whether or not those are sustainable - especially at last season’s rate.  More importantly, Allen had issues with getting the ball out in rhythm and with consistent accuracy.  I watched a highlight video and he did a lot of important things on it, including accurate passes, but he didn’t get the ball out at the end of his drops even once on that video.  The argument here is, of course, that his supporting cast was poor.  It sure was and I didn’t see all 22 film to see if he was missing open receivers.  I don’t know, but last season is done.  He’s got a much better line and much better WRs this year so let’s see what he does with them.  I’m not going to ding Allen when it might not have been his fault, but I’m also not going to blame people who wants to see Allen be effective with those aspects of his game before acknowledging that he can do those things well. 

[Kemp]

Just now, John from Riverside said:

I see NOTHING to indicate he is in over his head

 

I think your way base

 

If you re-read what I wrote I said if he shows no evidence of improvement next season.....

If he plays like he did in his first season, his future is most probably dim. 

[Ol Dirty B]

2 hours ago, NewDayBills said:

Well, forgive me for saying so, but I don't see Allen as a refined passer quite yet. He will likely be a running QB year 2. Look, we've added a bazillion RBs, OL and signed Lee freaking Smith to a big fat porkchop of a contract - we are going to be a running team. Allen is more like Michael Vick than he is Tom Brady, deal with it. I care more about the pattern and trajectory of his development. A pattern of reasonable growth as a passer. This guy is raw.

 

That's actually a fair comparison. The ridiculous arm strength. The places where I think they diverge is size, and while Allen can run I don't think he is as fast as Vick and not as shifty. However, I think that's a good trade off for us.

 

If he can mature and refine himself to what Vick was when he was for those couple years in Philly when he was great I think the upside will he huge.

 

I think anyone having doubts is completely fair. I was not a fan at all of the pick, but he won me over enough to think maybe we could have something here.

 

I know most will hate it, but when they made the pick I was not happy. But he has shown something might be there, however, he hasn't shown he's a lock. 

 

Seems like a good guy, hard worker, hopefully smart. I hope he puts it all together.