Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I mean these are a lot of IFs at this point. I’m very critical of our offensive moves but I’m completely sold on our defense.  However, there were some incidents of bend but don’t break moments.  Also, teams did take the foot of the gas petal in some games when we got blown out. 

 

Still, I think we have at worst a top 10 defense and maybe higher if Oliver can be as good as he has the talent to be. 

You have to give me a reason why the defense is going to decline......I dont see a genuine reason to say something like this.

1 minute ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

 

He is making an assumption based on a historical trend.  Defensive production is more variant but he was too eager to assume it will regress.  They lacked in the takeaway and redzone production departments.  They could be BETTER if they improve in those areas.

Exactly this is the way I am thinking...there are plenty of reasons why this D could actually be better...certainly more then enough to get to say "well it gonna regress just cuz"

[C.Biscuit97]

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

You have to give me a reason why the defense is going to decline......I dont see a genuine reason to say something like this.

Exactly this is the way I am thinking...there are plenty of reasons why this D could actually be better...certainly more then enough to get to say "well it gonna regress just cuz"

History of the nfl says it’s hard to remain a top 3 defense in consecutive years.  Also, optimist view, we will be blown out less and have leads that makes other teams getting yards in garbage time. 

 

As I said, I still think our defense will be good. A defense that is 8th or so with an offense that is 15 is much better than a D ranked 2 and an offense ranked 31.

[H2o]

Said it many times before and I'll say it again, Josh is gonna be special. From the time he stepped on the field the entire team had a different feel, a different energy about them. You could truly see the effect he had on both sides of the ball. The defense believes in him and the offense rallies around him. We have upgraded everywhere along the OL, we upgraded the WR corps, and the defense should be even better. I hope Aaron Schatz himself when we win 11 games this year. 

Edited May 26, 2019 by H2o

[Doc]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I know right.  If Allen was on the Fins, what would Bills fans’ opinions be after being a 56% passer in a lower D1 conference where he wasn’t on any of the All MWC teams; completed 52% of his passers his rookie year with 10 tds and 12 ints?  I’m sure we would talking about how the Fins have a stud franchise qb. ?

 

right or wrong, I try to be consistent.  I didn’t want the Bills to draft Allen. I hate that I’m not blindly behind because I have serious doubts.  I know he is a hard work and seems to have a good head on his shoulders. I know people who have meant him and said he’s a good dude.  But I need to see him win with arm.  I think the Bills could have gotten him a better OC (I’m amazed how sold everyone is on Daboll) and a legit 1 type receiver.  I do like the improved oline and he plays with a good defense to keep him in games.

 

but to sum it up, if Allen wasn’t a Bill, fans wont be sold either (also silly to be sold on a qb after one year).  I hate that I still have the doubts and there aren’t many things that I would love to be wrong on than Allen.  But sorry. After years of defending every Bills qb (compare Losman and Favre’s 1st 2 years), I need to see it.  So do non Bills fans. And hopefully, we do. 

 

For starters, what Allen did in college means nothing now.  Just like it meant nothing for a lot of highly-touted QB's who came into the NFL and failed miserably.  And if Allen were on the Fins and had the season he did (sure I guess I could ignore the 631 yards and 8 additional TD's rushing to help my point) with the terrible supporting cast he had and despite being a project, I'd be worried that he could actually be something given a real offense around him and time.  So I think we should at least give him this season before we make definitive statements, like this Schatz chap is doing.

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

History of the nfl says it’s hard to remain a top 3 defense in consecutive years.  Also, optimist view, we will be blown out less and have leads that makes other teams getting yards in garbage time. 

 

As I said, I still think our defense will be good. A defense that is 8th or so with an offense that is 15 is much better than a D ranked 2 and an offense ranked 31.

So let me clarify this a little bit....I should have on my first post.

 

There were things that they did well and there were things that they did not do great....I envision a team that gets better at the negatives even if they slip a little bit in the positives.....essentially keeping the defense a top ranked defense.....

[Thurman#1]

28 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

His basis for his opinion is his website's algorithm called QBASE:

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/qbase-2018

 

According to that metric, Josh Allen has a 37.3% chance of becoming an adequate starter or better. Which is why I don't understand his relentless pessimism of Allen's chances. A better than 1 in 3 chance of becoming at least an adequate starter is really not all that unlikely. So even by the numbers his own website uses, Schatz's opinion doesn't make sense. Does he trust his own numbers or not? Imagine rolling a die and ridiculing the idea that a 1 or a 2 could be rolled. That is essentially what he is doing. Unless he doesn't trust his own algorithm which would be weird.

 

 

He's saying that QBASE gave Allen a 20.7% chance of being worth 500 - 1500 yards total over replacement value when considered over years 3 - 5. That would mean that over those three years, years 3 - 5 of his career, he would be worth between 166.6 yards per year and 500 yards per year. Which would put him between 15th best and 25th best if you look at last year's DYAR stats (Fitz, Winston, Flacco, Trubisky, Dalton, Stafford, Carr, E. Manning, Newton, Mullens were 15th to 25th last year) . That is his idea of an average starter, and if Allen's doing that by the time he's in his fifth year, Bills fans most likely wouldn't be happy. And QBASE only gives him a 21.8% chance to be that good.

 

And saying that QBASE (not me, I'm just doing my best to explain what I think QBASE says here) gives him an 11.5% chance of being upper tier, which would give him 1500 - 2500 yards over replacement value over those three years, which would put him between 500 and 833.3 yards per season, which would be 9th to 14th (Rodgers, Watson, Wilson, Mayfield, Cousins, Wentz, a much more respectable group).

 

And a 5.2 % chance of being "elite" which means 833.3 + yards above replacement, which last year was eight very good players.

[stevestojan]

No matter what, NO ONE should send this item to his office:

 

 

https://www.amazon.com/Glitmail-Spring-Loaded-Glitter-Bomb/dp/B00XTH7SSS/ref=mp_s_a_1_1?keywords=glitter+bomb&qid=1558809643&s=gateway&sprefix=glitter+bomb&sr=8-1

[Rocket94]

The talking head doesn't say much to support his view. Some people are necessary parts of the food chain. It is a nice day here...why did I bother to read it.

Edited May 25, 2019 by Rocket94

[John from Riverside]

3 minutes ago, H2o said:

Said it many times before and I'll say it again, Josh is gonna be special. From the time he stepped on the field the entire team had a different feel, a different energy about them. You could truly see the effect he had on both sides of the ball. The defense believes in him and the offense rallies around him. We have upgraded everywhere along the OL, we upgraded the WR corps, and the defense should be even better. I hope Aaron Shcatz himself when we win 11 games this year. 

I keep hearing WGR throwing a Bortles comparison around today.....because they both can run.

 

Josh Allen is NOT Bortles.....these QBs are not similar anymore then Josh Allen and Tyrod Taylor are similar.

[NewEra]

Bottom line:  who cares?

[C.Biscuit97]

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I keep hearing WGR throwing a Bortles comparison around today.....because they both can run.

 

Josh Allen is NOT Bortles.....these QBs are not similar anymore then Josh Allen and Tyrod Taylor are similar.

Comparison are crazy but how can anyone say Allen will be better or worse than Bortles at this point?  In fact, I can see Allen having a very similar 2nd season as Bortles did, which we would all take right now. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BortBl00.htm

[JinxedBill1]

Well it’s espn so that’s how they get clicks and traffic now.

[K-9]

5 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

My only counter to this is Newton was dominant in the best conference in college, won a heisman and title, and set rookie passing records.  If I had to make a comparison for Allen, it might be Vince Young Rookie year. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/Y/YounVi00.htm

Good point. But Cam Newton was a 5 star recruit and highly a developed high school QB entering college. Physically, he was already a man amongst boys in college. A fully grown stud. He was pro ready the day he walked out of college and into the NFL. 

 

Josh Allen on the other hand, was a scrawny little boy in high school with limited experience as a QB. He was as green as they come at Wyoming and is still learning the position at the pro level. And while still very green, he has shown an aptitude for the position that is even more impressive than his arm and athleticism. And while his arm talent is second to none, it’s that aptitude and demonstrated work ethic that serve him best. 

 

But I can’t expect those not more closely familiar with his story and persona to appreciate that. 

[HappyDays]

11 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

He's saying that QBASE gave Allen a 20.7% chance of being worth 500 - 1500 yards total over replacement value when considered over years 3 - 5. That would mean that over those three years, years 3 - 5 of his career, he would be worth between 166.6 yards per year and 500 yards per year. Which would put him between 15th best and 25th best if you look at last year's DYAR stats (Fitz, Winston, Flacco, Trubisky, Dalton, Stafford, Carr, E. Manning, Newton, Mullens were 15th to 25th last year) . That is his idea of an average starter, and if Allen's doing that by the time he's in his fifth year, Bills fans most likely wouldn't be happy. And QBASE only gives him a 21.8% chance to be that good.

 

Yes, but in his interview all he's saying is that he doesn't see Allen as a starting QB. He's been pretty adamant since before the draft that Allen is a sure bust, even though 

his own numbers don't support that. I don't even care about QBASE, I just find it weird that he doesn't seem to trust his own algorithm.

[C.Biscuit97]

15 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Good point. But Cam Newton was a 5 star recruit and highly a developed high school QB entering college. Physically, he was already a man amongst boys in college. A fully grown stud. He was pro ready the day he walked out of college and into the NFL. 

 

Josh Allen on the other hand, was a scrawny little boy in high school with limited experience as a QB. He was as green as they come at Wyoming and is still learning the position at the pro level. And while still very green, he has shown an aptitude for the position that is even more impressive than his arm and athleticism. And while his arm talent is second to none, it’s that aptitude and demonstrated work ethic that serve him best. 

 

But I can’t expect those not more closely familiar with his story and persona to appreciate that. 

Same thing with Aaron Rodgers.  I think the people who don’t like the Allen pick are the people who go with what history tells us.  Allen got drafted because of physical tools rather than what he actually did.  Those guys terrify me. Back to guys like Hackenburg.  

 

And can we stop acting like his college coach wasn’t Carson Wentz’?  Sorry, I’m going to have high expectations for the highest drafted qb in Bills history.  

Edited May 25, 2019 by C.Biscuit97

[billybob71]

11 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Good point. But Cam Newton was a 5 star recruit and highly a developed high school QB entering college. Physically, he was already a man amongst boys in college. A fully grown stud. He was pro ready the day he walked out of college and into the NFL. 

 

Josh Allen on the other hand, was a scrawny little boy in high school with limited experience as a QB. He was as green as they come at Wyoming and is still learning the position at the pro level. And while still very green, he has shown an aptitude for the position that is even more impressive than his arm and athleticism. And while his arm talent is second to none, it’s that aptitude and demonstrated work ethic that serve him best. 

 

But I can’t expect those not more closely familiar with his story and persona to appreciate that. 

 

Just now, billybob71 said:

 

I hope Josh turns out better than Cam always have felt he is an average NFL qb at best.

[C.Biscuit97]

6 minutes ago, billybob71 said:

 

I hope Josh turns out better than Cam always have felt he is an average NFL qb at best.

If Allen turns out better than a heisman trophy and national champ; rookie passing record having; MVP, and SB runner up , he will be a borderline HOFer.  No pressure Josh!

 

cam newton average at best says Billybob ?

Edited May 25, 2019 by C.Biscuit97

[billybob71]

I should have been more specific.  average now. Had a few good years early in career has been average the last few years.

[ROCBillsBeliever]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Do you spend much of your time seeking reading material in dog parks and commodes or ??

 

I mean, I get the point - it reads like "word vomit"  - I just found the analogy curious.  Outside of gastroenterology, who reads bowel movements for a living?

 

Sometimes to make a point that something is completely ridiculous, I like to make that point in as ridiculous of a manner; kinda match stupidity with an equal level of stupidity. That way, not only is the critique itself apropos, but the nature of the critique is fitting. Think of it as meta-criticism. 

[billybob71]

And hopefully Josh doesnt cry and throw a tantrum if he ever loses a SB?