Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh

[C.Biscuit97]

11 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

I can't say that I understand why you are so rough on Daboll. Some of the best coaches in history saw fit to hire him. The Bills provided him with:

1) A rookie qb. 

2) A terrible offensive line.

3) A sub-par running attack.

4) Lousy wide receivers.

5) Poor tight ends.

6) Peterman.

I could go on. Despite the above, the Bills managed to win some games. I might join you after this year if Daboll doesn't improve the offense. He does seem to have much more to work with. I think that he deserves another year.

If he wasn’t with Bama, you would have a much different opinion.  And before you try to blame everything on Hurts, Hurts was offensive player of the year as a freshman under Kiffin.

 

To put it simply, Daboll’s nfl resume sucks.  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/DaboBr0.htm. Bill you are doing what I used to do.  Make a ton of excuses.  People blamed all of 2017’s problem on Tyrod and Dennison.  Well, 2018’s offense was worst.  I felt with a rawer qb like Allen, you should have a more successful nfl OC than what Daboll has demonstrated.  It’s not quite like rookie year Andrew Luck getting Bruce Arians.  I think we could have done much better than Daboll but I’d love to be proven wrong.  Hopefully, we stop with excuses this year. 

[GunnerBill]

11 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

I can't say that I understand why you are so rough on Daboll. Some of the best coaches in history saw fit to hire him. The Bills provided him with:

1) A rookie qb. 

2) A terrible offensive line.

3) A sub-par running attack.

4) Lousy wide receivers.

5) Poor tight ends.

6) Peterman.

I could go on. Despite the above, the Bills managed to win some games. I might join you after this year if Daboll doesn't improve the offense. He does seem to have much more to work with. I think that he deserves another year.

 

Feel the same. 

 

I didn't think 2017 was on Dennison. I don't think 2018 was on Daboll. The offensive performance stunk because in the main the offensive talent stunk. 

 

The Bills have upgraded. In 2019 Daboll has to show marked improvement. 

 

[LSHMEAB]

9 hours ago, MDH said:

 

 

Does anybody think Mahomes is the MVP if he doesn’t have the best offensive talent in the league around him?

MVP? Probably not. Rising star? Yes. The Chiefs have Kelce and Hill. Great weapons to be sure. Didn't miss a beat when they lost Hunt. Never really lost a beat. This is the same "dream team" supporting cast that Alex Smith lead to 26 passing TD's. Mahomes is the real deal.

 

There's really no need to disparage or downplay the ability of the other young QB's in the league. Josh Allen controls his own destiny.

Edited May 28, 2019 by LSHMEAB

[dave mcbride]

20 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Several folks on this board have looked at every pass from multiple games that Allen played in last year and shown that the inaccuracy thing is way overblown if not outright wrong.  Yet you and others persist.

No, he really was inaccurate. Don't be a Kool-Aid drinker when the numbers are there for you:  ‘Allen only put the ball in the perfect spot 8.6 percent of the time, per PFF. That is 6.5 percentage points less than the league average.’ 

https://buffalonews.com/2019/05/03/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-quarterback-jim-kubiak-year-two/

 

6.5% below league average is actually a lot.

16 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

If he wasn’t with Bama, you would have a much different opinion.  And before you try to blame everything on Hurts, Hurts was offensive player of the year as a freshman under Kiffin.

 

To put it simply, Daboll’s nfl resume sucks.  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/DaboBr0.htm. Bill you are doing what I used to do.  Make a ton of excuses.  People blamed all of 2017’s problem on Tyrod and Dennison.  Well, 2018’s offense was worst.  I felt with a rawer qb like Allen, you should have a more successful nfl OC than what Daboll has demonstrated.  It’s not quite like rookie year Andrew Luck getting Bruce Arians.  I think we could have done much better than Daboll but I’d love to be proven wrong.  Hopefully, we stop with excuses this year. 

I appreciate your turn to the dark side, but Daboll has been cursed with ridiculously poor talent in every NFL stop he has made. Seriously, look at that talent on those teams. It really does matter. I thought Daboll did some excellent scheming last year, but the talent level was so poor that it was hard to detect.

23 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He is unusual in so many ways. But I don't think Josh Allen resets the paradigm however things work out for him. Because there is so much about his scenario and style that is unique to him. 

I never said he'd reset the paradigm; like you I think he's too unique for that because of the unmatched physical talent. 

Edited May 28, 2019 by dave mcbride

[oldmanfan]

13 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

No, he really was inaccurate. Don't be a Kool-Aid drinker when the numbers are there for you:  ‘Allen only put the ball in the perfect spot 8.6 percent of the time, per PFF. That is 6.5 percentage points less than the league average.’ 

https://buffalonews.com/2019/05/03/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-quarterback-jim-kubiak-year-two/

 

6.5% below league average is actually a lot.

I appreciate your turn to the dark side, but Daboll has been cursed with ridiculously poor talent in every NFL stop he has made. Seriously, look at that talent on those teams. It really does matter. I thought Daboll did some excellent scheming last year, but the talent level was so poor that it was hard to detect.

I never said he'd reset the paradigm; like you I think he's too unique for that because of the unmatched physical talent. 

You are confusing accuracy with precision, which I have explained countless times around here.  When you talk about a "perfect spot" that is being both highly accurate AND highly precise.  Look at the dartboard analogy for further explanation.

 

And that PFF thing has issues with it.  It presupposes they know what the perfect spot is on any given throw.  Plus Allen tended to throw downfield more which increases the size if the spot, assuming they know it.

 

I am not a Kool Aid drinker; Allen needs to be more precise on the short passes and I have said so numerous times.  You on the other hand seem to want to vomit up stats without critically analyzing methods used to obtain them and ignore guys around here that have put a ton of time in looking at each throw this kid made.  The reason I like some of the data shown by our colleagues on this board is they used a consistent and to my mind more correct definition of accuracy.

 

 

[HappyDays]

20 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I thought Daboll did some excellent scheming last year, but the talent level was so poor that it was hard to detect.

 

I agree, and what Daboll did in the latter part of the year was nothing short of miraculous. We basically played like a league average offense after the bye week. Considering the offensive line, the rookie QB still learning on the job, and the mediocre pass catching group that's impressive. Obviously there has to be improvement this year but I'm optimistic about Daboll. I thought we had a real NFL scheme that should have been more successful than it was.

[Putin]

On 5/25/2019 at 10:38 AM, JESSEFEFFER said:

Aaron was on WGR yesterday with an interesting position on Josh.  He still does not "see" him as an NFL starting QB.  Says he would like to see Bills fans rewarded but does not see Josh as likely to produce it.  If I were doing the interview I'd have asked him about the basis for this, is it the numbers or some actual film review?  IIRC, this was his predraft assessment based on his Wyoming stats and their  correlation to historical projection and he's not bending it based on year 1 in the NFL. 

 

Assuming he is still focused on the numbers, I would have asked him what effect that the following would have on his numbers:

 

1) being the leader in depth to target

2) being amongst the top in dropped passes and throwaways/spikes

3) being near the top in throws under pressure

 

I saw some Twitter chatter started by Bills reporters Sal Capaccio and Ryan Talbot.  Here's the link to the latters' story:

 

newyorkupstate " I-do-not-see-a-nfl-starting-qb-in-buffalo-bills-josh-allen-says-espns-aaron-schatz"

 

I appreciate facts in any discussion and numbers are facts.  But discussions need facts connected to meaning and context.  It looks like if the Bills have a decent season, he already has an alternate explanation as to why it happened.

 

I think Josh will be one of the alltime "scouts eyes and ears" vs. "raw analytics" cases in the NFL.  Someone gets to tell the other side "I told you so."

 

 

 

 

 

It doesn’t surprise me at all !!!

I don’t expect to hear anything positive about Josh Allen on Schopp  &  his ? s*+t show , 

So the kind of guests they would have on their show would pretty much have the same opinion as those two clowns !!!

They didn’t even bother to challenge him & explain in more details why he believes J A will never be a good starting QB ,, It’s like watching Don ? on CNN and expect him to challenge a guest who sits there and talks $h1t about Trump for an hour , !!!

 

 

 

 

Edited May 28, 2019 by Putin

[K-9]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Feel the same. 

 

I didn't think 2017 was on Dennison. I don't think 2018 was on Daboll. The offensive performance stunk because in the main the offensive talent stunk. 

 

The Bills have upgraded. In 2019 Daboll has to show marked improvement. 

 

Daboll showed marked improvement post bye in 2018. Why would we think that trend wouldn’t continue?

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

If he wasn’t with Bama, you would have a much different opinion.  And before you try to blame everything on Hurts, Hurts was offensive player of the year as a freshman under Kiffin.

 

To put it simply, Daboll’s nfl resume sucks.  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/DaboBr0.htm. Bill you are doing what I used to do.  Make a ton of excuses.  People blamed all of 2017’s problem on Tyrod and Dennison.  Well, 2018’s offense was worst.  I felt with a rawer qb like Allen, you should have a more successful nfl OC than what Daboll has demonstrated.  It’s not quite like rookie year Andrew Luck getting Bruce Arians.  I think we could have done much better than Daboll but I’d love to be proven wrong.  Hopefully, we stop with excuses this year. 

ScottLaw says, “You complete me.”

Edited May 28, 2019 by K-9

[Rocket94]

I am sorry...I have followed football too long...I can just see and sense Josh Allen being a success! On top of that, he is open minded and teachable beside the obvious physical talent. Someone else pointed out that the pundits have a right to their opinions...well Josh will prove them wrong!

Edited May 29, 2019 by Rocket94

[C.Biscuit97]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

No, he really was inaccurate. Don't be a Kool-Aid drinker when the numbers are there for you:  ‘Allen only put the ball in the perfect spot 8.6 percent of the time, per PFF. That is 6.5 percentage points less than the league average.’ 

https://buffalonews.com/2019/05/03/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-quarterback-jim-kubiak-year-two/

 

6.5% below league average is actually a lot.

I appreciate your turn to the dark side, but Daboll has been cursed with ridiculously poor talent in every NFL stop he has made. Seriously, look at that talent on those teams. It really does matter. I thought Daboll did some excellent scheming last year, but the talent level was so poor that it was hard to detect.

I never said he'd reset the paradigm; like you I think he's too unique for that because of the unmatched physical talent. 

So maybe he is only getting hired by bad teams for a reason?  Also, at some point, shouldn’t a good OC elevate the talent?  

 

Put it this way:  what’s more likely - Daboll has a top 10 offense or a bottom 10 offense?  Also, why do people think he is good?  Serious question.  Almost every other Bama OC under Savanna has been better and he got coffee for McDaniels in NE. It’s weird how I’m a hater for not thinking we could do better than Daboll. 

30 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Daboll showed marked improvement post bye in 2018. Why would we think that trend wouldn’t continue?

ScottLaw says, “You complete me.”

Good post. Added a lot.  When you can’t dispute Anything make a corny joke.  

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I agree, and what Daboll did in the latter part of the year was nothing short of miraculous. We basically played like a league average offense after the bye week. Considering the offensive line, the rookie QB still learning on the job, and the mediocre pass catching group that's impressive. Obviously there has to be improvement this year but I'm optimistic about Daboll. I thought we had a real NFL scheme that should have been more successful than it was.

Thanks for actually adding a real post.  I agree it was better.  Kinda sneaking posts now but does anyone have the breakdown pre and post break?  

 

Basically, we are counting on a guy who has never been a good nfl OC and a qb who never really dominated in a lower college conference meshing together.  I can see why an outsider who relies on numbers can have their doubts.  

[C.Biscuit97]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Feel the same. 

 

I didn't think 2017 was on Dennison. I don't think 2018 was on Daboll. The offensive performance stunk because in the main the offensive talent stunk. 

 

The Bills have upgraded. In 2019 Daboll has to show marked improvement. 

 

2017 was on whoever thought Tyrod would be good in a west coast offense.  Terrible decision. 

[K-9]

12 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Good post. Added a lot.  When you can’t dispute Anything make a corny joke.  

What’s there to dispute? Are you seeking out disputes? Daboll’s last experience as an OC wasn’t good as you said. Different time, different place, different personnel, different schemes, different everything. 

 

I was talking about his post bye performance with us last season. EverythIng about his schematics was markedly better after the break. Are you so intractable in your belief that your don’t think people can improve over prior experience? 

 

Finally, lighten the F up, for crissakes. 

[HOUSE]

[eball]

4 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

I'm a big Schatz fan

 

He's the ultimate test case in the battle between the stat heads and the scouts. 

 

I mean, who isn’t? There’s nothing quite like the satisfaction of a big Schatz. ?

 

Anyway, I think you and I basically agree - perhaps you phrased it more eloquently but this is what I meant when I called Allen an analytics unicorn. 

 

 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

He can eat Schatz !

 

 

[Warcodered]

Passing just seems like something that's really difficult to breakdown into a simple stat. There are just so many things that go into each individual pass/event that I think it's very difficult to get an accurate measure.

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, K-9 said:

Daboll showed marked improvement post bye in 2018. Why would we think that trend wouldn’t continue?

 

I don't think Daboll actually changed that much pre bye and post bye. The difference was they found a couple of guys in McKenzie and Foster who could do some things. I think our offense will be better this year because we have some talent. All I am saying is the evaluation on Daboll only really starts now. Because frankly you could have had Bill Walsh calling the plays on offense last year and we still would have sucked. 

 

Edit: if you actually go and look at the plays... the fly routes were there early season too... it was just at that point Foster couldn't locate his own jock strap let alone the football or they were being thrown to the fat man and he wasn't catching anything. The bubble screens that worked to McKenzie later in the season? They were there too but being thrown to Andre Holmes with all the YAC of a rusty nail and the reverses and sweeps that McKenzie ran were there too - but were being run by Zay - a man who only ever excites me when he takes his clothes off. 

 

Personally I think what happened at the bye was Daboll sat down with Beane and McDermott and said "look here is what I need to make this offense go" and they went out and made a concerted effort to give him some of what he wanted. Suddenly with some speed there were playmakers on the field and defenses had to back off from the line a bit which opened some other things up - whether that be Josh running or more underneath opportunities for Zay. 

Edited May 29, 2019 by GunnerBill

[eball]

13 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

If he wasn’t with Bama, you would have a much different opinion.  And before you try to blame everything on Hurts, Hurts was offensive player of the year as a freshman under Kiffin.

 

To put it simply, Daboll’s nfl resume sucks.  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/DaboBr0.htm. Bill you are doing what I used to do.  Make a ton of excuses.  People blamed all of 2017’s problem on Tyrod and Dennison.  Well, 2018’s offense was worst.  I felt with a rawer qb like Allen, you should have a more successful nfl OC than what Daboll has demonstrated.  It’s not quite like rookie year Andrew Luck getting Bruce Arians.  I think we could have done much better than Daboll but I’d love to be proven wrong.  Hopefully, we stop with excuses this year. 

 

I can't even count how many times you have said this or something similar in your recent posts.  Do you think stating this means you should be considered more "objective" or something?  Jesus, man, lighten up.  It's a freaking game.  You moan and groan about how Bills fans "settle" and how wrong you used to be for being optimistic -- talk about becoming a Debbie Downer.  And you're doing this at a time during which nearly everyone objectively believes the right FO is finally in place and doing the things necessary to build a consistent winner.

 

Dennison was terrible.  We all saw it in the play calling.  Tyrod was never the answer.  And using the start of 2018 as a criticism of Daboll is disingenuous.  Allen got snaps with mostly the 3rd string and they started the season with Peterman!  Do you truly, objectively, not see a difference in the way the offense functioned before and after Allen's injury?

 

Daboll has come up through the ranks having been around a lot of good coaches.  Your assessment is biased by your insatiable desire to prove you are not a homer -- which is odd.

[GunnerBill]

48 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Dennison was terrible.  We all saw it in the play calling. 

 

I don't think he was. He wasn't great... he is a bit vanilla... but the problem was talent. People didn't want to hear it but Jordan Matthews was a borderline #3 masquerading as a #1, Kelvin Benjamin was injured and lazy, Mike Tolbert was a bowling ball masquerading as a football player, Zay was a rookie who couldn't catch a cold and Tyrod was the definition of a square peg in a round hole.  Now some of us predicted all of that at the beginning of that season - the offense was bad because the talent was bad. Did Dennison raise it above what it was? No, but he didn't get any less out of the offense than what was there. He had a better line than Daboll last year because he had Wood and Incognito. As a result Shady was more effective in some games at least. Clay was also still a bit more of a contributor. But his playmakers were still pretty non-existent and his Quarterback play was more limited (though equally less prone to turnovers).

 

For two years in a row now I have gone into seasons expecting us to suck offensively. This year I think we have the talent to be somewhere approaching a middle of the pack offense. If we are a bottom 6 offense again then questions will be asked of Daboll and rightly so.

Edited May 29, 2019 by GunnerBill

[eball]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think he was. He wasn't great... he is a bit vanilla... but the problem was talent. People didn't want to hear it but Jordan Matthews was a borderline #3 masquerading as a #1, Kelvin Benjamin was injured and lazy, Mike Tolbert was a bowling ball masquerading as a football player, Zay was a rookie who couldn't catch a cold and Tyrod was the definition of a square peg in a round hole.  Now some of us predicted all of that at the beginning of that season - the offense was bad because the talent was bad. Did Dennison raise it above what it was? No, but he didn't get any less out of the offense than what was there. He had a better line than Daboll last year because he had Wood and Incognito. As a result Shady was more effective in some games at least. Clay was also still a bit more of a contributor. But his playmakers were still pretty non-existent and his Quarterback play was more limited (though equally less prone to turnovers).

 

For two years in a row now I have gone into seasons expecting us to suck offensively. This year I think we have the talent to be somewhere approaching a middle of the pack offense. If we are a bottom 6 offense again then questions will be asked of Daboll and rightly so.

 

I view the strength of an OC to be getting the most out of what he has to work with, and my recollection is that Dennison was an "I'm going to play my scheme regardless of who is out there" kind of guy -- who can forget the wide runs with Tolbert?

 

I don't disagree that the offensive talent outside of Shady was abysmal -- but as you state, the OL was significantly better.

 

In any event, trashing Daboll based upon the 1st half of 2018 is uncalled for, in my opinion.  I completely agree that he should and will be judged upon how the offense performs this season.

 

Edited May 29, 2019 by eball