Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh

[Ga boy]

22 hours ago, Marv's Neighbor said:

Have to hope he's all wrong but it is only his 2nd season, and we'll see.

The fail factor for Josh is less going into his 2nd season than going into his first;  however, he could still be a flop.  There's a long list of QB flash in the pans in the National Football League.  To assume he's going to light it up is wishful thinking at this point.  Being a stellar QB in the National Football League happens with less than 1% of the applicants.  Go Bills!!!  

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

28 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Work ethic alone wont get you there but he has a ton of other intangibles that I believe also support it including great measurables. 

 

...good call.....and the best part is he vows to work his tail off only to get better.....his quote from a recent interview, "OUR team and OUR family" tells me a helluva lot about this kid.....sure as hell is no "ME" in his repertoire..........

[Nihilarian]

On 5/25/2019 at 12:11 PM, ScottLaw said:

Not sure why people get up in arms over all this stuff. 

 

These guys do a lot of research on these players and then give a prediction based on their research. It's a nice job to have because it doesn't matter if they are right or wrong, they'll still have a job.... it's just his opinion on a player that happened to be picked by that Bills. It has no barring on if Allen will be successful or not so I never understood why people got pissed over this stuff.

 

 

This is the thing. I highly doubt this guy did any "in depth research" besides looking at who the Bills added in free agency and the draft.

 

Did he actually watch any of last years games to see Allen getting better with each and every game? Not to mention that last Dolphins game in which josh Allen threw for 3 TDs and ran for 2 more! If this were any other team I think the media would have gone batsh!t crazy over Allen!

 

Then most of the top NFL analysts that watched Allen's last few games stated there wasn't a more exciting QB that they would rather watch. That Miami game in which the Dolphins were helpless to stop Allen is a big reason as to why Adam Gase was fired IMO. 

 

Then look at Allen's surrounding cast to see the Bills offensive line was about as bad as it gets last season and the receiving corps had the number two targeted WR catch only 37.1 percent of his targets!  

 

There were real reasons the Bills offensive line coach/run game coordinator was fired and replaced because the Bills line couldn't run block for the RB's for crap and they couldn't pass block worth a damn either. The WR coach was fired and replaced because of so many dropped balls...between Zay Jones and Kelvin Benjamin it was 80 missed targets...80! 

 

This year's offensive line should be immensely improved with a quality veteran NFL experienced center to help call protections. The right side of the line should be greatly upgraded with quality veteran experienced NFL players as should the LG position. (unless they start the rookie Cody Ford at RT/RG)

 

The offensive coaching staff improved, the offensive player talent improved O line, WR, RB,TE.  There are reasons for the majority of people with a brain to see the only way Josh Allen fails this season is if somehow he morphs into Nathan Peterman. Ain't gonna happen!

 

Bills fans should be very excited to see what the 2019 NFL season brings us! 

[rayray808]

I bet he has only seen Josh Allen in pants

[LSHMEAB]

Honest question. Do you think you'd still have the same optimism if the season ended at NE? As much as I've altered my stance and become open to the possibility that Allen can be the guy, I still find myself asking that question.

[HappyDays]

19 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Honest question. Do you think you'd still have the same optimism if the season ended at NE? As much as I've altered my stance and become open to the possibility that Allen can be the guy, I still find myself asking that question.

 

Darnold's last game was at New England and he played like crap. Do you feel less optimistic about his future?

[LSHMEAB]

33 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Darnold's last game was at New England and he played like crap. Do you feel less optimistic about his future?

I'm actually not a big Darnold guy, but that's a completely fair point. Foxborough is where rookie QB's go to die.

 

My question pertained more to the Miami game where one could argue we were playing against a lame duck opponent. How much does that game factor into the optimism and does it skew perception? To be fair, you'd also have to dismiss the low point at Green Bay.

Edited May 26, 2019 by LSHMEAB

[John from Riverside]

4 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Work ethic alone wont get you there but he has a ton of other intangibles that I believe also support it including great measurables. 

Well yes this.....my point was basically when you combine things this is a reason for feeling good about success

 

He is NOT a finished product but how could anyone expect him to be with what he had to work with last year.......

28 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Honest question. Do you think you'd still have the same optimism if the season ended at NE? As much as I've altered my stance and become open to the possibility that Allen can be the guy, I still find myself asking that question.

If you go back and check the games (just trust me on this) you will find that BB OWNS rookie qbs...he just does

[John from Riverside]

14 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Do you think Tim Tebow or Colin Kaepernick are lacking in athleticism?

 

 

Do you honestly think either of those QBs have the talent level of Josh Allen?

 

Neither have his arm.....not even close..and that is just ONE of the things that separate them.

[Kemp]

15 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

When you combine it with insane arm talent good things happen

 

you do remember that he comes with insane arm talent and athletism right?

 

Your definition of insane arm talent is he can throw it hard and far. Mine is accuracy and the ability to think fast. By athleticism you mean running?

Again, he might become good, but last season did not serve as an indicator that it's definitely coming.

11 hours ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

It’s not shocking that those rankings come from Football Outsiders  Depending on the metric you go by, you’ll find Allen ranked closer to Darnold and higher than Jackson and Rosen.

 

But even going by your logic, a “parody of an NFL QB” probably certainly be ranked lower than 30th.  In no way, would a “parody” be ranked higher than Lamar Jackson, who is “not a parody” right?

 

Also go read the article by Ryan Talbot.  He explains how you could see progress in Allen after coming back from the elbow injury.  Also, a “parody” probably doesn’t lead a team with bad talent around them to a 4-4 record. 

 

Again, not saying that Allen is a great QB yet....but yes he has performed better than the bleak outlook from old man Schatz

 

Because a second rate analytics site like Football Outsiders are right 100% of the time... don’t you know?

 

Something tells me @Kemp is a big fan of Mike Schopp 

 

Don't know who Schopp is.

 

The 30th ranked QB is a positive indicator?

I don't know anyone involved with analytics who said Allen looked good based on the numbers. If you know of one I would be happy to read their work.

[Kemp]

9 hours ago, Dr. K said:

Good for Schatz if, should Allen's "analytics" improve, he changes his opinion. Not all commentators, even if they base their opinions on "objective standards," will.

 

And there is often room for different interpretations of statistics, or analyses that point in different directions, as anyone who follows such analysis knows. It's not as cut and dried as you characterize it. 

 

Like I told someone else, if you have analytics from a different source that's positive , I'd be happy to read it.

[Kemp]

9 hours ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

The thing is Schatz and other analytics guys don't have an opinion, just an interpretation of the data.  If the data changes, they change their assessment.  Conveniently  they are never wrong, and also never right.  Sure Allen's 'numbers' might not indicate he is primed for success.  But the context in which those numbers were produced needs to be considered.  If you believe, as the Bills leadership does, in the 'potential' of Allen and improve the context such as fewer dropped passes and less pressure from the defense then the data may reveal improvement.  Or it may not.  At this point I'm willing to trust the judgment of our GM and HC over some data gathers with a couple spreadsheets.      

 

Of course they have an opinion. You even knew their opinions before the draft. Mayfield graded out the highest with Allen the lowest (of the top guys).

 

All Head Coaches and GMs now consider the analytics. Every team has a growing analytics department. That doesn't mean they will follow the analytics to every detail, but there's enough evidence now that in every sport, analytics are a pretty good guide to pay attention to. This is no longer a debatable issue.

[Kemp]

8 hours ago, K-9 said:

My comment was more tongue in cheek than anything else. Lighten up. 

 

IMO, Allen showed enough glimpses to suggest he won’t be one of those 10 that doesn’t improve. Especially from a command of the game standpoint. It was obvious that the game was beginning to slow down for him a bit.

 

Not everything he did was a disaster. He made some plays and I choose to give him credit for that rather than act like he never did anything positive at all.

 

He’s got a ways to go, but I like where he is given his experience playing the position and the potential he has shown. 

 

 

 

Sorry, I didn't know it was tongue-in-cheek. That's sometimes tough to see in writing.

I am not disputing that you may turn out to be right about his future, but the odds are against you. I am disputing the notion that he was anywhere near good enough as a passer last year. His support did suck, but he did, too. He has a far better cast this season so he has no excuse to not show big improvement. Can we agree on that?

8 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Josh went 5-5 in the games he started and finished last year.  Putting the 6-10 record on his is disingenuous.

 

 

How do Allen's 631 yards and 8 TD's rushing factor into that?  Or is it conveniently ignored?

 

I don't believe rushing is included, but I'm not disputing he's a good runner. I'm disputing that he was a good passer last season. 

[Kemp]

7 hours ago, Doc said:

 

You're kidding, right?

 

Nope.

 

I suppose a couple have made it to the NFL without it, but I bet they weren't around long.

7 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Never heard of this guy but basically he is correct. If Allen doesn’t get better this team isn't going anywhere.  Eventually he needs to be a pocket passer. I think he will. I think a better OL and WR group will allow him to improve. I’m all in on Allen and have been since before the draft.  I wanted Allen, Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield in that order, but honestly only wanted Allen or Rosen.

 

You still have Mayfield 4th in that group?

6 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...good call.....and the best part is he vows to work his tail off only to get better.....his quote from a recent interview, "OUR team and OUR family" tells me a helluva lot about this kid.....sure as hell is no "ME" in his repertoire..........

 

What an athlete says is totally meaningless. All that matters is how he performs.

[CincyBillsFan]

As others have noted the degree to which Allen polarizes these so called QB "experts" is weird.  I can't recall so much venom spewed at a player like that which some of these analytics guys hurl.  My take is they realize that if Allen succeeds it indicates that their precious equations are crap.  And that threatens their paycheck. 

 

As someone who spent a LONG career working in R&D and made use of all sorts of mathematical modeling & analytics techniques the attempt by these guys to model QB performance using analytics is laughable.   There are simply to many variables to make the calculations worth much.  When I see a QBASE score of 37.3% I can't help but be amazed at the arrogance of these guys who believe their calculation is accurate to a TENTH of a DECIMAL PLACE!  Really!   How about "37.3" +/- 50%.  There I fixed it for you Shantz.

 

Allen may not get better then he is.  He may flounder going forward and turn out to be a bust at QB.  He may never be anything other then an average QB in the NFL.  Or he may be the next John Elway.  At this point in his career who knows.  I don't need silly equations to tell me that.  Watching the NFL closely will tell you this.  But anyone who has watched a fair amount of the NFL would say that there is reason for optimism that Allen may in fact be a very good NFL QB.  Using my advanced eyes analytics technique (AEAT) I calculate that there is a 34.5892% chance of Allen being an above average to excellent QB. 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 26, 2019 by CincyBillsFan

[JESSEFEFFER]

31 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

Like I told someone else, if you have analytics from a different source that's positive , I'd be happy to read it.

 

 

In a curious set of circumstances, ESPN and Football Outsiders formed some sort of alliance.  One product of that is Total QBR and I would assume Aaron Schatz had something to do with its creation.  Well, here is the 2018 result with Josh right there with Baker and ahead of some bonafide, highly paid NFL starters.  

 

He could have said that he doesn't see a "traditional" NFL starting QB or a "prototypical" one.  I could agree with that.  He could give him credit for improved play or say his development as a passer is paramount to his future success and it has a long way to go.  Agreed. He could have credited Josh with finding ways to be effective for his team in the midst of a poor, unstable supporting cast as many of us do.  I just found it odd that he is seemingly unmoved from his harsh, predraft assessment.  Josh's rookie year should have moved the dial, imo.

 

 

21	Nick Mullens, SF	5.9	23.6	-2.8	1.8	29.0	334	56.2	54.2
22	Matthew Stafford, DET	1.7	25.8	4.2	4.2	49.2	647	50.9	53.8
23	Baker Mayfield, CLE	9.4	34.8	0.9	3.6	51.5	580	55.7	53.6
24	Josh Allen, BUF	2.9	-1.8	24.1	3.5	35.6	461	52.3	52.2
25	Eli Manning, NYG	2.3	30.2	2.0	2.4	54.8	684	51.2	51.6
26	Alex Smith, WSH	4.6	17.8	5.5	2.9	35.0	422	53.8	49.4
27	Derek Carr, OAK	-1.2	27.3	2.5	0.2	50.8	669	49.3	49.0
28	Sam Darnold, NYJ	-3.0	23.5	3.3	-1.1	36.6	510	47.9	48.4
29	Case Keenum, DEN	-4.0	26.9	4.2	3.5	50.6	685	47.9	46.9
30	Blake Bortles, JAX	-8.6	9.3	11.6	-1.6	30.5	515	44.1	45.8
RK	PLAYER	PTS ADDED	PASS	RUN	PENALTY	TOTAL EPA	QB PLAYS	RAW QBR	TOTAL QBR
31	Lamar Jackson, BAL	-1.2	6.6	13.8	0.4	27.7	338	48.7	45.1
32	Ryan Tannehill, MIA	-18.0	-6.3	3.6	0.8	13.4	363	33.1	35.4
33	Josh Rosen, ARI	-35.3	-13.6	3.3	1.2	7.9	491	26.6	25.9

[CincyBillsFan]

58 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

Like I told someone else, if you have analytics from a different source that's positive , I'd be happy to read it.

 

Why would folks waste their time?  Analytics can not proactively predict a young QB's future prospects any better then a beer swilling fan gobbling down chicken wings at the local bar & grill.

 

 

[Doc]

3 hours ago, Kemp said:

I don't believe rushing is included, but I'm not disputing he's a good runner. I'm disputing that he was a good passer last season. 

 

Are you disputing the state of his OL, WR's and the fact that he was a raw rookie who was thrust into the starting role?  To hear some talk, it's like he was a multi-year vet in a familiar offense and working with a great supporting cast.

 

3 hours ago, Kemp said:

Nope.

 

I suppose a couple have made it to the NFL without it, but I bet they weren't around long.

 

You said that it was impossible to make it to the NFL without a great work ethic.  Not make it in the NFL.  There have been many QB's who made it to the NFL who didn't have a great work ethic, and they obviously failed.

[Stallions]

It's his opinion and that's his right to express it.  He'll get more publicity here by his stance than jumping on the Josh band wagon.  But, let's face facts, Josh is very inexperienced and don't plenty of us have some doubts??

[John from Riverside]

47 minutes ago, Stallions said:

It's his opinion and that's his right to express it.  He'll get more publicity here by his stance than jumping on the Josh band wagon.  But, let's face facts, Josh is very inexperienced and don't plenty of us have some doubts??

No more doubts then any other QB going into his second year.